20 games for each team. home n home w 9 teams and a road and a home date with the other two. games begin january 2nd and go straight through march 8th. no breaks. there's a mac game for your school every 3 or 4 days.

If we decide to overcome our fear and go out in public again


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(09-05-2020 11:09 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  If we decide to overcome our fear and go out in public again


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don't think it has much to do with "fear", more like contagion, which is very real and has little to do with whether you fear it. Certainly, people wanting to go out without proper precautions has amplified the health crisis. On the flip side there's been a poor job of public health messaging regarding indoor vs outdoor transmission. it's probably possible to have outdoor limited capacity football done fairly safely if people follow precautions. problem is that lots of folks don't want to protect their neighbors by masking up and being careful. indoor sports is more tricky.

from my perspective, partially informed from working in health care, there's a short term immediate threat of more outbreaks, but in several months we should start seeing early versions of vaccines along with rising levels of immunity/partial immunity from pre-exposed people. so, come january it will likely be possible to protect at least some people (even though the early vaccines may have some side effects and imperfect protection) and more of the rest will be unlikely to spread or catch the virus (although there is some uncertainty if new mutations will afflict those who survived earlier versions). hopefully, the league is planning for the various scenarios.

(09-06-2020 12:01 AM)pono Wrote:  

(09-05-2020 11:09 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  If we decide to overcome our fear and go out in public again


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don't think it has much to do with "fear", more like contagion, which is very real and has little to do with whether you fear it.

Fear absolutely plays into the equation. I've heard people talking about they won't get the vaccine even when one is approved. Everyone is handling this situation a little bit differently but it may be quite some time until we turn to old normal as far as big crowds go even if the virus is controlled. If there is one thing the internet has shown me is that people are going to believe what they are going to believe no matter how much hard science is out there.

COVID total mortality rate in US now at 2.89%... it’s lowest reading yet. COVID hospitalizations are also at new lows since the April peak.

Cases are not the proper measure but it is easy to count so we keep doing it

(09-08-2020 10:06 AM)indianasniff Wrote:  COVID total mortality rate in US now at 2.89%... it’s lowest reading yet. COVID hospitalizations are also at new lows since the April peak.

Cases are not the proper measure but it is easy to count so we keep doing it

Hospitalizations is a easy to measure, valid metric.

Positive cases is not a good measure because of difference rates of testing and as we all know, the symptoms of Covid can be nothing (asymptomatic) to death.

Some symptoms can be mild, ala the flu, so that isn't a big deal. We deal with non life threatening cases of the flu each winter.

I've read about some of the 'symptoms' for those who are or relatively asymptomatic, for example, myocarditis. https://www.myocarditisfoundation.org/ab...YAQAvD_BwE

I'm just not familiar enough with the numbers to know how much more common it is in Covid + athletes than the general population of say males 18 - 24.

(09-06-2020 12:01 AM)pono Wrote:  from my perspective, partially informed from working in health care, there's a short term immediate threat of more outbreaks, but in several months we should start seeing early versions of vaccines along with rising levels of immunity/partial immunity from pre-exposed people. so, come january it will likely be possible to protect at least some people (even though the early vaccines may have some side effects and imperfect protection) and more of the rest will be unlikely to spread or catch the virus (although there is some uncertainty if new mutations will afflict those who survived earlier versions). hopefully, the league is planning for the various scenarios.

Also, for team exposure management, pending FDA approval, there are cheap, if lower accuracy, saliva tests which could be used twice daily in combination with weekly nucleic acid testing which could help keep a lid on in-team transmission.

(09-09-2020 08:32 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-06-2020 12:01 AM)pono Wrote:  from my perspective, partially informed from working in health care, there's a short term immediate threat of more outbreaks, but in several months we should start seeing early versions of vaccines along with rising levels of immunity/partial immunity from pre-exposed people. so, come january it will likely be possible to protect at least some people (even though the early vaccines may have some side effects and imperfect protection) and more of the rest will be unlikely to spread or catch the virus (although there is some uncertainty if new mutations will afflict those who survived earlier versions). hopefully, the league is planning for the various scenarios.

Also, for team exposure management, pending FDA approval, there are cheap, if lower accuracy, saliva tests which could be used twice daily in combination with weekly nucleic acid testing which could help keep a lid on in-team transmission.

yeah, some schools are already using those for weekly testing of entire on campus population. of course, testing requires follow up, contact tracing, medical treatment/analysis, and, with positives, quarantine. largely, the virus is manageable for most people with housing, medical and income resources. for people living in crowded housing or without good medical care/coverage the virus just takes off and explodes. so, yeah, for most D1 basketball programs you should be able to play ball with some occasional hiccups, but doesn't mean COVID isn't wrecking havoc elsewhere.