Statefan
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RE: What if: ACC thinks ahead of B1G, invites Penn State in late 80's as well as FSU
(09-06-2020 11:02 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: (09-04-2020 09:47 PM)Statefan Wrote: (09-04-2020 02:31 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Having both PSU and FSU would have completely changed the ACC.
The ACC in the 1980s was really a country club. Basketball was a major source of revenue, the ACC had the best brands and talent in basketball, and the ACC tournament was a gold mine as the schools were able to leverage their donors. There was opposition to expanding even though athletic leaders (such as Corrigan) understood that football would soon drive the bus.
The football first schools (PSU, FSU, Clemson, GTech and likely Maryland) would have been able to push football-based expansion sooner. Duke, UNC and UVA have been very conservative in embracing football revenue. Miami, Norte Dame and Syracuse would have then been their next targets for a 12 team conference with a championship game.
MD was not pushing anything in Athletics regarding the ACC after the spring of 86. That's when Bias died and MD gutted both the basketball and football programs.
From the moment the ACC adds Penn State, the SEC target package does not change with Texas and TAMU but I suspect the SEC would have targeted FSU much more heavily and without the condescension. The result being the SEC adding Arkansas and FSU at that time. The Big 10 adds Pitt.
The Big 10 is at 11.
The ACC is at 9.
The SEC is at 12.
Needing to go to 12 for a football championship game the ACC targets with be ND, Miami, and Syracuse. Once again politics will result in only Miami being the new addition with South Carolina and VT again playing politics.
The B10 will make the same mistake it made again and go for Nebraska, giving Colorado, TAMU, and Mizzou reason to flee, when they should go for Syracuse.
The SEC again adds TAMU and Mizzou. Colorado still goes to the P12. The ACC then goes after ND, Syracuse, and BC. Getting at least 2.
Now if Kirwan and Loh pull the same ****, there will be no rush to add Louisville.
The B10 is in a worse position on the trade between Pitt and PSU and likely add MD and Rutgers again for TV money.
The point is that even if you start with a different team and conference first, the results are going to be structurally similar - The ACC will get three of FSU, PSU, Miami, and ND. The SEC or the Big 10 will get one.
Per the OP, in this theoretical the ACC was actually proactive and invites both PSU and FSU in the late 1980s. The SEC does not have the opportunity to woo FSU...therefore, the SEC still goes with Arkansas and South Carolina to start its CCG. Regardless of the dysfunctionality at College Park, the combination of PSU and FSU is more than enough to wrestle operational control away from the country club.
Twenty years ago, when the ACC is ready to have a CCG, Syracuse and Miami are easily recruited...without the politics of Mark Warner, PSU and FSU are no longer the geographic outliers in the conference. A north-south split provides PSU with a nice path to the CCG: Syracuse, PSU, MD, UVA, WF & Miami versus UNC, NCS, DU, Clemson, GT & FSU (UVA-UNC and UM-FSU have permanent annual crossover). The ACC would obviously had made a play for ND, but the Irish are unlikely to have had interest.
Ten years ago (when the last round of media contracts were being negotiated) the ACC would likely have had two options. If the ACC needed to go after TV markets (to drive its dedicated network’s revenue), then Rutgers and BC would be the likely adds. PSU is happy because it has built a true northeast division with itself at the center. If the ACC could go after brands, then two of Pitt, VT and WVU would be the targets. PSU is still happy because it gets to enhance its natural geographic rivalry with Pitt in this less likely scenario. Regardless of the expansion criteria, the ACC is always accommodating PSU. There is no reason for PSU to be tempted to leave for the BIG, because PSU is actually the alpha program within the ACC.
PS - As a sidelight, in my alternate scenario of TV market based expansion in 2010...
1) ACC can expand to 14 with Rutgers and BC
2) SEC can expand to 14 with TAM and VT (much better cultural and geographic fits)
3) BIG also expands to 14 with UNL, MO, KS and OU (making Gee a fortune-teller; having balanced East v West divisions [OSU, MI, MSU, Ind, Pur, IL & NW v MN, WI, IA, UNL, MO, KS & OU]; while enhancing football and leaving itself open to a UT-Austin and/or ND expansion in the future)
4) B12 and UT-Austin solidify their group by bringing in Pitt, WVU and Louisville...and providing an accommodating home for a partial ND
An ACC expansion to 10 with FSU and PSU at the same time would change the SEC's and the B10's calculus. I think the practical effect would be to drive VT to the SEC along with Miami as well as Pitt to the B10. Without Pitt and PSU there is no Big East football. Miami, VT, and SC would be looking to the ACC or SEC for security and when it came time to decide between the three of them and Arkansas, remember there is no other suitor for Arkansas at that time. The politics in the State of Florida would support Miami in the SEC with Florida. FSU then has two annual ooc games that they would want to keep.
When the Big 12 forms a few years later Arkansas is in that group instead of the SEC.
When the ACC is looking to go to 12, the initial prospects are ND, Syracuse, and BC. Now the power play comes from SC and again UNC and Duke will desire SC but with an ACC basketball ticket penalty, unlike UVa, Clemson will support SC. The deciding vote on a UNC/Duke power play will come from Penn State. They will want two of ND, Syracuse, and BC. ND is not ready. That means Syracuse or BC as 12th but since Pitt is in the B10, the B10 has a quick choice to make - Nebraska or Syracuse. They B10 does not have to keep Pitt happy like PSU so they let Syracuse go to the ACC and they take Nebraska as their 12th.
Everyone is now at 12 now except for the B10 and the only question is does Arkansas' presence in the B12, keep Nebraska from bolting to the B10 when ND again turns them down?
If Nebraska bolts, I suspect that Arkansas and TAMU make a deal to the SEC.
That leaves ND, and BC in the east. A Maryland that likely will not move and the B10 looking at the midwest. I suspect they go for Mizzou and Oklahoma. Colorado goes to the P12. And the ACC adds BC and ND.
For the ACC the changes are SC and PSU instead of Miami, VT, and Pitt.
For the B10 the changes are OU, Pitt, and Nebraska instead of PSU, Rutgers, and MD.
For the SEC the changes are Miami and VT for Mizzou and SC.
Again the B12 is hurt the worst, but they always will be.
SC is 11th.
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