Assumptions:
- Nebraska and Iowa have the full alignment institutionally to play and will flee including using creative measures like replacing home games with near-home-neutral-site games to play.

- Ohio State and Michigan and other Big Ten programs do not have the sufficient level of full alignment institutionally to play. It doesn't matter what Ryan Day says, he's not the President. He can pound sand until he turns blue the President has the ultimate say. You need alignment from the FB HC to the AD to the President. If a defection is possible out of the Big Ten no vote block it's most likely to be Penn State if Pittsburgh is playing IMO.

- The ACC will play largely because the blue state block doesn't have the votes to do anything or even obstruct with Notre Dame in the room siding with the red states. If politicians step in and prevent their in state teams from playing or make the protocol impractical for them to play they'll have to either play all games on the road out of state or opt-out.

- The Big 12 will play

- The SEC will play



The rather non-dramatic result:

Big 12 + Nebraska + Iowa
SEC
ACC (+ Penn State)

Nearly all of that content and the college football playoff is *checks paperwork* ..... Disney property! You cut a one time check for one year to Nebraska and Iowa to play in the Big 12 at the Big 12 compensation level. Depending upon how much you wanna push it in the inevitable lawsuit from the Big Ten:

Safest: Nebraska/Iowa play at the nearest NFL stadium as a neutral site game for all "home" games.

Still Reasonable: If no fans, Nebraska/Iowa play at the nearest acceptable facility of any level (NFL/NCAA D1, D2) as a neutral site game for all "home" games.

Brazen: Nebraska/Iowa play as visitors in their home stadium complete with using the visiting locker room and visiting sideline.

Nebraska may go rogue, but I can't see Iowa going against the other schools in the Big 10.

(08-11-2020 02:39 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Safest: Nebraska/Iowa play at the nearest NFL stadium as a neutral site game for all "home" games.

Still Reasonable: If no fans, Nebraska/Iowa play at the nearest acceptable facility of any level (NFL/NCAA D1, D2) as a neutral site game for all "home" games.

Brazen: Nebraska/Iowa play as visitors in their home stadium complete with using the visiting locker room and visiting sideline.

Nebraska and/or Iowa playing home games at Iowa State.

You forget that the states in the northeast and in the midwest are working together which means the blue/red states are setting up a working agreement with travel restrictions and all that. Those states are working better at controlling this virus better than the south are. Idaho and Utah are working with the west coast states along with New Mexico and Colorado. I doubt that Syracuse, Boston College, Army, Navy, Pittsburgh, Marshall, Virginia and Virginia Tech will play. Miami in the ACC might be a no go zone because it is ground zero right now.

(08-11-2020 03:08 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  You forget that the states in the northeast and in the midwest are working together which means the blue/red states are setting up a working agreement with travel restrictions and all that. Those states are working better at controlling this virus better than the south are. Idaho and Utah are working with the west coast states along with New Mexico and Colorado. I doubt that Syracuse, Boston College, Army, Navy, Pittsburgh, Marshall, Virginia and Virginia Tech will play. Miami in the ACC might be a no go zone because it is ground zero right now.

Quit your damn chicken little sky is falling BS...
Damn Son...

If we do see some teams play I’m curious as to what the post season looks like. The CFP is pretty well busted with 40% of the P5 out. I venture to say bowls not located in the Southeast will also cancel.

(08-11-2020 03:26 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If we do see some teams play I’m curious as to what the post season looks like. The CFP is pretty well busted with 40% of the P5 out. I venture to say bowls not located in the Southeast will also cancel.

Yes, because the Pac-12 fielded so many playoff teams who did so well ....

.... and the Big Ten fielded loads of people not named Ohio State ....


Most of the teams who had a legit shot to win it are still in it.

(08-11-2020 04:58 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 03:26 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If we do see some teams play I’m curious as to what the post season looks like. The CFP is pretty well busted with 40% of the P5 out. I venture to say bowls not located in the Southeast will also cancel.

Yes, because the Pac-12 fielded so many playoff teams who did so well ....

.... and the Big Ten fielded loads of people not named Ohio State ....


Most of the teams who had a legit shot to win it are still in it.

Clemson, Oklahoma, and 2 SEC teams? Sounds like a return to normalcy to me.

SEC will declare the pandemic too much a risk rto play when the player union organizing start hitting them too.

Cynical folks think this was the tipping point issue for the B1G and P12. If so the ACC is the next to pop.

ODU's unilateral announcement of no fall sports definitely rocks the CUSA cradle. Just another extra rock in the shoe for both parties.

(08-11-2020 04:58 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 03:26 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If we do see some teams play I’m curious as to what the post season looks like. The CFP is pretty well busted with 40% of the P5 out. I venture to say bowls not located in the Southeast will also cancel.

Yes, because the Pac-12 fielded so many playoff teams who did so well ....

.... and the Big Ten fielded loads of people not named Ohio State ....


Most of the teams who had a legit shot to win it are still in it.

(08-11-2020 10:27 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  SEC will declare the pandemic too much a risk rto play wh[b]en the player union organizing start hitting them too.
[/b]
Cynical folks think this was the tipping point issue for the B1G and P12. If so the ACC is the next to pop.

SEC players would be taking a pay cut if they unionize.

The P5 will go to the Ivy model before they let players unionize and pay them salaries.

(08-12-2020 12:11 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The P5 will go to the Ivy model before they let players unionize and pay them salaries.

College football is a billion dollar business. Most of the schools in P5 get a sizable piece of that pie. I don’t see them walking away from that money. There will be a few schools... Notre Dame, Stanford, Duke, Vandy perhaps.

As hard strapped as universities are for money these days, it would take courage to walk away.

What about Army and Air Force?

Trump will likely want the military academies to play a full schedule no matter what.

(08-12-2020 12:27 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  What about Army and Air Force?

Trump will likely want the military academies to play a full schedule no matter what.

Prime candidates for a one year AAC membership.

Could Nebraska, Iowa, and/or Penn State play 2 or 3 non-conference games this fall and still make themselves available for a full conference slate in the spring?

(08-12-2020 12:57 PM)YNot Wrote:  Could Nebraska, Iowa, and/or Penn State play 2 or 3 non-conference games this fall and still make themselves available for a full conference slate in the spring?

Iowa and Penn State was for spring bowl. None of the schools in the Big 10 but Nebraska, and I don't think they will risk the tv dollars to walk away to make less.

(08-12-2020 12:21 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 12:11 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The P5 will go to the Ivy model before they let players unionize and pay them salaries.

College football is a billion dollar business. Most of the schools in P5 get a sizable piece of that pie. I don’t see them walking away from that money. There will be a few schools... Notre Dame, Stanford, Duke, Vandy perhaps.

As hard strapped as universities are for money these days, it would take courage to walk away.

I don’t think that deprioritizing sports is going occur at the private v public level, nor the elite v non-elite academic level. It is true that private institutions will generally be faster in making/executing strategic decisions...and elite academic institutions probably have more options in reinventing their commitment to athletics.

More likely, deprioritizing athletics will be a decision based on whether a) the school really values the brand recognition that P5 participation provides and b) whether the institution needs to subsidize athletics.

I would argue that Notre Dame (football) and Duke (basketball) really value the brand recognition...while Vanderbilt and Wake Forest really don’t get much out of athletic branding. All four schools are elite private universities...but could make very different choices in the new surroundings.

Similarly, Rutgers and Maryland heavily subsidize their athletic departments. These are public state flagship universities with massive student enrollments and outstanding AAU-worthy research commitments that align well with other BIG land grant schools. But their financial infrastructure is no where near that of Ohio State or Michigan. Financially, schools like Notre Dame, Duke or Stanford have the wherewithal and historical commitment to athletics.

I understand where Nebraska is coming from. As a state they've been pretty much unaffected by Covid. The entire state has fewer than 30k total cases and just over 100 deaths. And their numbers have declined tremendously since July.