Let’s pretend for a moment that negotiations between the Big 8 and Texas/Texas A&M break down in 1994.

The Big 8 members realize that if they let all the Texans in their henhouse that’s they’ll take over and they’ll be 2nd class citizens.

What happens from there?

I could see the Big 8 becoming the Big 9 by admitting BYU.

The WAC backfills and goes to 12 UNLV, San Jose St, and Nevada in 1996.

West: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
East: Utah, Wyoming, Colorado St, AFA, UNM, UTEP.

We also get SBC football in 1996 as they recruit NMSU and UNT.

I also wonder if the SWC wouldn’t have tried to turn the tables on the Big 8 by trying to steal Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

What are your thoughts

and what if.... There were so many fishes in the sea, that there was no more room for water?

If the SWC were to take the Oklahoma schools I wonder what becomes of the other 6 schools.

If they were forced to rebuild I think they have no where to go but the WAC.

Or they could have gotten creative with the Big East—Maybe they do a merger of sorts but leave 2 schools out.

Then you’ve got the Big Ten and Pac 10 out there and 5 AAU schools are suddenly in need of a conference. Maybe they bite on some of these schools.

Big Ten Quads:

I: Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri
II: Iowa St, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
III: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana
IV: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St

Rotate the pods WAC-16 style, or, if Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are ok with it, permanently group I with II and III with IV.

(08-12-2020 01:11 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the SWC were to take the Oklahoma schools I wonder what becomes of the other 6 schools.

If they were forced to rebuild I think they have no where to go but the WAC.

Or they could have gotten creative with the Big East—Maybe they do a merger of sorts but leave 2 schools out.

Then you’ve got the Big Ten and Pac 10 out there and 5 AAU schools are suddenly in need of a conference. Maybe they bite on some of these schools.

Big Ten Quads:

I: Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri
II: Iowa St, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
III: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana
IV: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St

Rotate the pods WAC-16 style, or, if Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are ok with it, permanently group I with II and III with IV.

Kansas St is the odd man out. They either join the SWC, the new CUSA, or the WAC. My guess would be the SWC with the help of the Oklahoma schools. Assuming Arkansas still joins the SEC, I could see the SWC going to 12 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, and Tulane.

West: Baylor, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
East: Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas A&M, Tulane

(08-12-2020 06:36 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s pretend for a moment that negotiations between the Big 8 and Texas/Texas A&M break down in 1994.

The Big 8 members realize that if they let all the Texans in their henhouse that’s they’ll take over and they’ll be 2nd class citizens.

What happens from there?

I could see the Big 8 becoming the Big 9 by admitting BYU.

The WAC backfills and goes to 12 UNLV, San Jose St, and Nevada in 1996.

West: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
East: Utah, Wyoming, Colorado St, AFA, UNM, UTEP.

We also get SBC football in 1996 as they recruit NMSU and UNT.

I also wonder if the SWC wouldn’t have tried to turn the tables on the Big 8 by trying to steal Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

What are your thoughts

It's almost impossible for this not to happen. The Big 8 lacked markets and the SWC lacked markets & notable programs (besides UT, A&M, & Arkansas). UT and A&M were going to get out of the SWC. OU and Nebraska knew they had to have some more markets to keep the conference viable for TV.

If the Big 12 in its original form doesn't emerge, then that's because UT/A&M went to the SEC (with or without Arkansas) or joined the PAC. That leaves OU, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri looking for alternatives...either joining other conferences themselves or figuring out how to add markets to the Big 8.

The only way the Big 8 can add markets if UT/A&M/Arkansas are unavailable is to add some combination of the SWC remainder (Houston, Tech, the private schools) or to add would-be CUSA schools: Louisville, Cincy, Memphis, Tulane and such that are at least located in major markets.

I'd assume you'd go with Houston for sure. Texas Tech doesn't really bring a worthwhile market, so maybe TCU or SMU instead. Baylor is likewise out. That's 10. If you go to 12, then I think Louisville and Cincinnati make the most sense bringing in basketball, which KU would appreciate, and adding larger TV markets (though not giant markets by any stretch). I don't see a scenario where Rice or Baylor gets in with this situation.

This approach, at least, leads to the Big 8 adding Houston, DFW, Louisville, and Cincinnati as TV markets. Not great penetration into DFW especially, but it does expand the TV footprint significantly.

The alternative is to go West with Utah and BYU, but SLC was a smaller market back then. And frankly, it's going the wrong direction to improve media coverage and reach larger markets, as well as adding a time zone further behind the East Coast. But if you do that, then Utah, BYU, UH, + TCU seem the best bet.

There were some waves of Texas and Colorado to the PAC 10 and Arkansas and TAMU to the SEC.

Had this occurred I think you’d see the 7 remaining Big 8 schools picking at the remnants of the SWC. The question is how many do they take?

Houston and TCU for the markets seem like a no brainer. That’s 9 and that’s viable. If they are giddy for a CCG then bring TTU, Baylor, and SMU.

(08-12-2020 01:47 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 06:36 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s pretend for a moment that negotiations between the Big 8 and Texas/Texas A&M break down in 1994.

The Big 8 members realize that if they let all the Texans in their henhouse that’s they’ll take over and they’ll be 2nd class citizens.

What happens from there?

I could see the Big 8 becoming the Big 9 by admitting BYU.

The WAC backfills and goes to 12 UNLV, San Jose St, and Nevada in 1996.

West: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
East: Utah, Wyoming, Colorado St, AFA, UNM, UTEP.

We also get SBC football in 1996 as they recruit NMSU and UNT.

I also wonder if the SWC wouldn’t have tried to turn the tables on the Big 8 by trying to steal Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

What are your thoughts

It's almost impossible for this not to happen. The Big 8 lacked markets and the SWC lacked markets & notable programs (besides UT, A&M, & Arkansas). UT and A&M were going to get out of the SWC. OU and Nebraska knew they had to have some more markets to keep the conference viable for TV.

If the Big 12 in its original form doesn't emerge, then that's because UT/A&M went to the SEC (with or without Arkansas) or joined the PAC. That leaves OU, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri looking for alternatives...either joining other conferences themselves or figuring out how to add markets to the Big 8.

The only way the Big 8 can add markets if UT/A&M/Arkansas are unavailable is to add some combination of the SWC remainder (Houston, Tech, the private schools) or to add would-be CUSA schools: Louisville, Cincy, Memphis, Tulane and such that are at least located in major markets.

I'd assume you'd go with Houston for sure. Texas Tech doesn't really bring a worthwhile market, so maybe TCU or SMU instead. Baylor is likewise out. That's 10. If you go to 12, then I think Louisville and Cincinnati make the most sense bringing in basketball, which KU would appreciate, and adding larger TV markets (though not giant markets by any stretch). I don't see a scenario where Rice or Baylor gets in with this situation.

This approach, at least, leads to the Big 8 adding Houston, DFW, Louisville, and Cincinnati as TV markets. Not great penetration into DFW especially, but it does expand the TV footprint significantly.

The alternative is to go West with Utah and BYU, but SLC was a smaller market back then. And frankly, it's going the wrong direction to improve media coverage and reach larger markets, as well as adding a time zone further behind the East Coast. But if you do that, then Utah, BYU, UH, + TCU seem the best bet.

In that scenario, Memphis gets in before Louisville or Cincinnati because there's no desire to go that far east, plus Memphis basketball makes Kansas happy.

If it never materialized, given the leanings of schools at the time:
1) Texas and Colorado would have moved to the Pac-10 to form the Pac-12 (Texas instead of Utah)
2) Texas A&M would have joined the SEC

These planned moves were prevented by the formation of the Big 12.

The Big 8 would have been down to 7 (Iowa State, Nebraska, KU, K State, Missouri, OU, Oklahoma State), and the SWC down to 6 (TCU, SMU, Rice, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston). SMU was very unwanted at the time, and Rice was as much an under performer then as now. After Tech and Baylor, both TCU and Houston had some consideration by Texas as possible partners in merging with the Big 8.

Would the remaining schools of the Big 8 and the SWC formed anything from that? Would Nebraska have joined the Big Ten fifteen years earlier than they did? What would pre-Boren OU do?

A lot of what ifs, only a couple things seem certain.

(08-12-2020 06:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  If it never materialized, given the leanings of schools at the time:
1) Texas and Colorado would have moved to the Pac-10 to form the Pac-12 (Texas instead of Utah)
2) Texas A&M would have joined the SEC

These planned moves were prevented by the formation of the Big 12.

The Big 8 would have been down to 7 (Iowa State, Nebraska, KU, K State, Missouri, OU, Oklahoma State), and the SWC down to 6 (TCU, SMU, Rice, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston). SMU was very unwanted at the time, and Rice was as much an under performer then as now. After Tech and Baylor, both TCU and Houston had some consideration by Texas as possible partners in merging with the Big 8.

Would the remaining schools of the Big 8 and the SWC formed anything from that? Would Nebraska have joined the Big Ten fifteen years earlier than they did? What would pre-Boren OU do?

A lot of what ifs, only a couple things seem certain.

So if Arkansas and South Carolina are already in the SEC and then TAMU expresses interest in joining, who becomes #14 circa 1996?

Is it a Western add like Oklahoma or do they go East with someone like FSU or VT?

Does a 14 team SEC mean the ACC and Big 10 start thinking about similar numbers?

(08-12-2020 05:08 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 01:47 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 06:36 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s pretend for a moment that negotiations between the Big 8 and Texas/Texas A&M break down in 1994.

The Big 8 members realize that if they let all the Texans in their henhouse that’s they’ll take over and they’ll be 2nd class citizens.

What happens from there?

I could see the Big 8 becoming the Big 9 by admitting BYU.

The WAC backfills and goes to 12 UNLV, San Jose St, and Nevada in 1996.

West: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
East: Utah, Wyoming, Colorado St, AFA, UNM, UTEP.

We also get SBC football in 1996 as they recruit NMSU and UNT.

I also wonder if the SWC wouldn’t have tried to turn the tables on the Big 8 by trying to steal Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

What are your thoughts

It's almost impossible for this not to happen. The Big 8 lacked markets and the SWC lacked markets & notable programs (besides UT, A&M, & Arkansas). UT and A&M were going to get out of the SWC. OU and Nebraska knew they had to have some more markets to keep the conference viable for TV.

If the Big 12 in its original form doesn't emerge, then that's because UT/A&M went to the SEC (with or without Arkansas) or joined the PAC. That leaves OU, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri looking for alternatives...either joining other conferences themselves or figuring out how to add markets to the Big 8.

The only way the Big 8 can add markets if UT/A&M/Arkansas are unavailable is to add some combination of the SWC remainder (Houston, Tech, the private schools) or to add would-be CUSA schools: Louisville, Cincy, Memphis, Tulane and such that are at least located in major markets.

I'd assume you'd go with Houston for sure. Texas Tech doesn't really bring a worthwhile market, so maybe TCU or SMU instead. Baylor is likewise out. That's 10. If you go to 12, then I think Louisville and Cincinnati make the most sense bringing in basketball, which KU would appreciate, and adding larger TV markets (though not giant markets by any stretch). I don't see a scenario where Rice or Baylor gets in with this situation.

This approach, at least, leads to the Big 8 adding Houston, DFW, Louisville, and Cincinnati as TV markets. Not great penetration into DFW especially, but it does expand the TV footprint significantly.

The alternative is to go West with Utah and BYU, but SLC was a smaller market back then. And frankly, it's going the wrong direction to improve media coverage and reach larger markets, as well as adding a time zone further behind the East Coast. But if you do that, then Utah, BYU, UH, + TCU seem the best bet.

In that scenario, Memphis gets in before Louisville or Cincinnati because there's no desire to go that far east, plus Memphis basketball makes Kansas happy.

Must be their free throw shooting...

(08-12-2020 06:36 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s pretend for a moment that negotiations between the Big 8 and Texas/Texas A&M break down in 1994.

The Big 8 members realize that if they let all the Texans in their henhouse that’s they’ll take over and they’ll be 2nd class citizens.

What happens from there?

I could see the Big 8 becoming the Big 9 by admitting BYU.

The WAC backfills and goes to 12 UNLV, San Jose St, and Nevada in 1996.

West: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
East: Utah, Wyoming, Colorado St, AFA, UNM, UTEP.

We also get SBC football in 1996 as they recruit NMSU and UNT.

I also wonder if the SWC wouldn’t have tried to turn the tables on the Big 8 by trying to steal Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

What are your thoughts

Big 8 was dead.

There's just no scenario where it survives without Texas.

In 1994, even if A&M goes to the SEC, Texas and Texas Tech at least go to Big 8+2/4. Pac wouldn't take Tech and Texas had to take care of Tech.

Now in 1989 there was a possiblity of a different scenario.
You very nearly had Texas to the Pac, Arkansas and A&M to the SEC. Colorado probably also goes to Pac.

By 1994, rest of Big 8 disentegrates. Oklahoma and perhaps South Carolina to SEC. Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri to Big 10. Oklahoma St., Iowa St. and Kansas St. are left scrambling, perhaps to a CUSA.

No idea who the 14th is for the SEC. Miami was in the Big East, and a huge power at the time; so they would certainly have been a possible. It would have added an East team to go with a West team.

The SEC was not looking for growing market reach at that time. It was more about strong teams and staying in footprint. So I doubt either Missouri or Oklahoma would have even crossed the SEC minds back then. Conference TV channels are 15 years away still.

What happens with Utah State, Idaho and Boise?

(08-12-2020 09:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  Big 8 was dead.

There's just no scenario where it survives without Texas.

In 1994, even if A&M goes to the SEC, Texas and Texas Tech at least go to Big 8+2/4. Pac wouldn't take Tech and Texas had to take care of Tech.

Now in 1989 there was a possiblity of a different scenario.
You very nearly had Texas to the Pac, Arkansas and A&M to the SEC. Colorado probably also goes to Pac.

By 1994, rest of Big 8 disentegrates. Oklahoma and perhaps South Carolina to SEC. Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri to Big 10. Oklahoma St., Iowa St. and Kansas St. are left scrambling, perhaps to a CUSA.

That's true. The Big 8 had it going on the field, but it needed TV markets, and those were in Texas. The best way to get those are with the University of Texas.

The 1989 scenario would have been the worst for the Big 8. The conference would have lost a strong Colorado program. With UT going west and A&M going east, the Big 8 would have been forced to add the best possible programs and the biggest possible markets. You're probably looking at some or all of Louisville, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, and TCU, depending if they move to 10 teams or 12 teams. Still, Nebraska would have been looking to move to the B1G. KU and Missouri would have explored options. OU, even coming off probation and in a downward spiral, still had a brand name and would have looked to move. The three land-grant schools (OSU, K-State, and Iowa State) would have been in trouble.

The Big 8 + UT/Tech pairing would have offered everything all parties needed except a championship game. That would have been a solid conference.

(08-12-2020 11:48 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  What happens with Utah State, Idaho and Boise?

If all of the Big West football schools but Utah St and NMSU leave the Big West in 1996 my guess is that Big West football is dead.

If NMSU and UNT shift their loyalties to the Sunbelt that just leaves Utah St, who ends up a Sunbelt fb affiliate until a future alignment change opens a spot in the WAC.

Idaho and Boise St never leave the Big Sky.

I’m not 100% convinced that the Big 8 had to grow by 4 in the early 90s and that they all had to be Texas schools, for the Big 8 to have remained relevant and competitive. Nebraska and Oklahoma were long time, established powerhouses and Missouri, Colorado, and even K St were improving. If a deal with the Texas schools couldn’t be reached in 1994 they could have just grabbed BYU

I am pretty sure that after the SWC lost Arkansas it was the beginning of the end for that league. I don’t think aligning with the Big 8 was anyone’s first choice but it was the one that ensured that the political baggage was taken care of.