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BrianNowicki Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Thoughts
(08-13-2020 03:05 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  It was said that the herd immunity threshold would
be lowered to 43% based on the model where younger people would become infected and transmit
the virus without deadly consequences to each other.

We still won't be there when the vaccines first come out, IMO. And, lowering it because younger people don't seem to have as high of a risk of death is dangerous.

IMO, your statement above should be tweaked. It sounds like you are saying that there are no deadly consequences for younger people. That simply is not true....while rare, some children have died......a 9 year old recently died in Georgia for instance. I also think that most younger children have had less chance of exposure than adults because for the most part they have been sitting at home more.. But even so, I do agree that death seems to be rare in children.

The other issue I am having with the statement above is that it sounds like you are saying that younger people will mostly just transmit the virus to each other and not adults. IMO, we need to see what happens with kids going back to school in some of the areas of the country that they are going back in person. At this point we do not know how much spread will happen, and in turn spread to adults (in some cases grandparents) that live or interact with these children. We really don't know yet what will happen, but I have a feeling we are going to see spread of the virus to children and adults to the point that even 50% protection (vaccine) over the US population will not slow down the virus enough that we can just stop wearing masks and social distancing.

And one more thing to ponder if anyone thinks we go back to normal in November........schools around where I live have already said they will be 100% virtual through winter break and then if things look okay to proceed they will implement a hybrid approach for the remainder of the 2020-21 school year. This hybrid approach will have about 50% of students fully virtual and 50% of students going in person for two days and virtual the rest of the week. That is not going back to normal after the election, or after a vaccine is ready......IMO.

We're not almost out of this. It's going to take quite a bit of time, even after vaccines are ready.
08-13-2020 03:26 PM
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Boca Rocket Online
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Post: #22
RE: Thoughts
(08-13-2020 03:26 PM)BrianNowicki Wrote:  
(08-13-2020 03:05 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  It was said that the herd immunity threshold would
be lowered to 43% based on the model where younger people would become infected and transmit
the virus without deadly consequences to each other.

We still won't be there when the vaccines first come out, IMO. And, lowering it because younger people don't seem to have as high of a risk of death is dangerous.

IMO, your statement above should be tweaked. It sounds like you are saying that there are no deadly consequences for younger people. That simply is not true....while rare, some children have died......a 9 year old recently died in Georgia for instance. I also think that most younger children have had less chance of exposure than adults because for the most part they have been sitting at home more.. But even so, I do agree that death seems to be rare in children.

The other issue I am having with the statement above is that it sounds like you are saying that younger people will mostly just transmit the virus to each other and not adults. IMO, we need to see what happens with kids going back to school in some of the areas of the country that they are going back in person. At this point we do not know how much spread will happen, and in turn spread to adults (in some cases grandparents) that live or interact with these children. We really don't know yet what will happen, but I have a feeling we are going to see spread of the virus to children and adults to the point that even 50% protection (vaccine) over the US population will not slow down the virus enough that we can just stop wearing masks and social distancing.

And one more thing to ponder if anyone thinks we go back to normal in November........schools around where I live have already said they will be 100% virtual through winter break and then if things look okay to proceed they will implement a hybrid approach for the remainder of the 2020-21 school year. This hybrid approach will have about 50% of students fully virtual and 50% of students going in person for two days and virtual the rest of the week. That is not going back to normal after the election, or after a vaccine is ready......IMO.

We're not almost out of this. It's going to take quite a bit of time, even after vaccines are ready.

It will take years to recover from this, in some ways we will never recover. We have made some progress.
08-13-2020 04:29 PM
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northcoastRocket Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Thoughts
Nationwide average daily deaths have more than doubled since early June. Yesterday was the highest single day total since mid-May. Several states have hit their highest daily totals in the last couple weeks. That's one thing that certainly has not been improving.
08-13-2020 04:48 PM
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eastisbest Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Thoughts
This thread is like a tennis match but I can't tell who is winning.

I suppose time will win. Good health to all.
08-13-2020 07:41 PM
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Boca Rocket Online
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Post: #25
RE: Thoughts
(08-13-2020 04:48 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Nationwide average daily deaths have more than doubled since early June. Yesterday was the highest single day total since mid-May. Several states have hit their highest daily totals in the last couple weeks. That's one thing that certainly has not been improving.

Niznik Lab in Miami did a 7 week data dump in yesterday numbers that included in yesterday's
numbers that included 14,181 tests, 31% skewed
the State's numbers. They were discovered by a FAU
grad student. Niznik is under investigation.
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2020 09:12 PM by Boca Rocket.)
08-13-2020 09:11 PM
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northcoastRocket Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Thoughts
(08-13-2020 09:11 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  
(08-13-2020 04:48 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Nationwide average daily deaths have more than doubled since early June. Yesterday was the highest single day total since mid-May. Several states have hit their highest daily totals in the last couple weeks. That's one thing that certainly has not been improving.

Niznik Lab in Miami did a 7 week data dump in yesterday numbers that included in yesterday's
numbers that included 14,181 tests, 31% skewed
the State's numbers. They were discovered by a FAU
grad student. Niznik is under investigation.

Those were cases. Yeah, the case numbers could be biased one way or another for a number of reasons including bad lab work. I was referring above to deaths. Those have not been improving as of yet. Let's hope that they do. I spoke to someone from Texas last week that I work with sometimes but haven't talked to in many months. He told he he's lost 3 family members to COVID. We have a very long way to go to get back to normalcy.
08-13-2020 09:57 PM
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Boca Rocket Online
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Post: #27
RE: Thoughts
08-16-2020 01:32 AM
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northcoastRocket Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Thoughts
Today a Georgia State QB said he is out for the season with a heart issue, reportedly traced back to him having COVID.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...d-covid-19
08-20-2020 05:33 PM
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MotoRocket Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Thoughts
(08-20-2020 05:33 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Today a Georgia State QB said he is out for the season with a heart issue, reportedly traced back to him having COVID.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...d-covid-19

Same issue for a Boston Red Sox pitcher who is out for the season. From what I have read, the myocarditis (sp) discussed in the article is not unexpected with Covid19, but seems to rarely become an issue that is long term. Again, that is from an article I read from a doctor familiar with the disease and the myocarditis that can accompany it. It stated most cases that developed were mild and would result in a full recovery over time with no permanent damage to the heart muscle resulting. I hope that is a valid report and remains to be true because any long term damage to patients having Covid will extend the issues surrounding shut-downs of all activities for a long, long time.
08-20-2020 05:47 PM
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DetroitRocket Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Thoughts
Interesting on ABC evening news, from the NIH that a vaccine likely won't be widely available until next June.
08-20-2020 06:19 PM
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northcoastRocket Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Thoughts
(08-20-2020 06:19 PM)DetroitRocket Wrote:  Interesting on ABC evening news, from the NIH that a vaccine likely won't be widely available until next June.

Not surprising, even if one gets approved relatively soon, it takes time to ramp up production and get a distribution network in place for, what a billion+ doses when worldwide interest is included. I seem to recall that it takes something like 6 months to produce the yearly supply of flu shots.
08-20-2020 06:47 PM
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rocketpaul Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Thoughts
I am surprised how little I am disappointed in no Rocket Football this fall and I think we would have won the MAC. I have decided that I don't want any young men dying playing football this fall because we love to watch it. I am hopeful that we will have this situation under control by the spring.
08-21-2020 06:56 AM
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PaulJ Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Thoughts
(08-21-2020 06:56 AM)rocketpaul Wrote:  I am surprised how little I am disappointed in no Rocket Football this fall and I think we would have won the MAC. I have decided that I don't want any young men dying playing football this fall because we love to watch it. I am hopeful that we will have this situation under control by the spring.

I think the lack of disappointment traces to knowing the possibility since the spring, we had time to process or grief, plus we all now see and realize losing a CFB season pales in comparison to the lives lost, many more suffering serious health concerns, millions out of work (millions more with paycuts) and thousands of business closed for ever, an economy in rough shape. Hard to really feel personally bad for no Rocket Football given that not watching a sport is really insignificant compared to all the other suffering. Hundreds of UT employees lost jobs, took huge pay cuts or furlough days - same for thousands in our community - CFB is secondary at this point.
08-21-2020 08:42 AM
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northcoastRocket Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Thoughts
The NFL put practice on hold for several teams, after numerous teams received many positive test results. They all used the same testing lab and apparently teams that used different labs had no positives over the same period.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2972...jersey-lab

This underscores a concern I have read that some experts worry there are many, many times more false positive tests than people are willing to admit. Supposedly, as I have read, the PCR technology is so sensitive that even extraordinarily minuscule contamination can trigger positive readings which puts much burden on labs to be extremely precise with their protocols. That's challenging to police when so many labs are testing thousands of samples a day, and the CDC (as far as I understand) is not regularly doing confirmatory testing to verify testing accuracy. It seems like one bad day at a lab can shut down a team mid season, and how does the league deal with that?
08-23-2020 11:22 AM
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