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schmolik · 08-10-2020 04:50 AM

The CFP has never chosen a 2 loss team before so if they have a P5 one loss team they should get the nod, especially one that was #1 going into the final week although losing 45-10 is pretty bad. On the other hand, so is losing to Mississippi State. What was the reasoning for Alabama over Ohio State other than Alabama had one loss and Ohio State had two? So this should be payback, otherwise it's an SEC > Big Ten double standard.

Gamecock · 08-10-2020 07:49 AM

Put in UCF

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-10-2020 10:41 AM

I think it has to be razor thin between Wisconsin and LSU.

LSU has a pair of really compelling wins but also 2 losses.

Wisconsin’s is the only 1 loss P5 without a CCG Crown and their only loss is to the best team in the nation.

Wisconsin in my mind is more deserving but I doubt the committee will go with a rematch at the Rose Bowl.

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-10-2020 10:57 AM

Assuming LSU gets the nod, the Rose and Sugar are locked up as:

Rose: Ohio St vs LSU
Sugar: Alabama vs Texas

I’m curious as to what happens with the rest of the NY6:

VT has a spot in the Orange
Wisconsin, Florida, and UCF could all be potentially playing them.

Washington St is most definitely in the Fiesta Bowl, surrogate home to the PAC 12 Champ when the Rose Bowl is taken.

Then you’ve got some of the other CCG losers potentially in the mix like Georgia, USC, and Clemson.

Anyone else in the running that I’m missing?

Crayton · 08-10-2020 04:43 PM

(08-09-2020 01:50 AM)templefootballfan Wrote: What happens in Bowl games

I'll just do the NY6. You all are welcome to fill out all 40+ bowls. Sadly I'm not interested enough to spend the time pairing them or programming the computer to do so.

(08-09-2020 10:42 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: LSU beating 2 playoff teams in Alabama and Texas, in conjunction with the replay of Ohio St whipping Wisconsin in the B1G CCG, will put LSU in the playoff.

(08-10-2020 04:50 AM)schmolik Wrote: The CFP has never chosen a 2 loss team before so if they have a P5 one loss team they should get the nod, especially one that was #1 going into the final week although losing 45-10 is pretty bad. On the other hand, so is losing to Mississippi State. What was the reasoning for Alabama over Ohio State other than Alabama had one loss and Ohio State had two? So this should be payback, otherwise it's an SEC > Big Ten double standard.

The loss to Mississippi State was by 3, for comparison sake. That same 2-loss Ohio State team ended up ranked above 1-loss Wisconsin. The key factor in 2017, I believe, was Ohio State's loss to playoff-bound Oklahoma earlier in the year; Alabama did not lose to playoff-bound Georgia. Yes, it would reek of SEC bias.

(08-10-2020 10:41 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: I think it has to be razor thin between Wisconsin and LSU.

LSU has a pair of really compelling wins but also 2 losses.

Wisconsin’s is the only 1 loss P5 without a CCG Crown and their only loss is to the best team in the nation.

Wisconsin in my mind is more deserving but I doubt the committee will go with a rematch at the Rose Bowl.

ESPN says 22 of the 24 CFP participants have been ranked in the top 4 of Strength of Record, a good approximation of "deserving"; Wisconsin would be #2 by this metric while LSU would be #5.

(08-10-2020 10:57 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: I’m curious as to what happens with the rest of the NY6:

VT has a spot in the Orange
Wisconsin, Florida, and UCF could all be potentially playing them.

Washington St is most definitely in the Fiesta Bowl, surrogate home to the PAC 12 Champ when the Rose Bowl is taken.

Then you’ve got some of the other CCG losers potentially in the mix like Georgia, USC, and Clemson.

Anyone else in the running that I’m missing?

Utah and Boise are in consideration. UCF can't play in the Orange.

Here are the teams ranked 10-14 before the Championship Games
#10 Utah (10-2), idle
#11 Wash St (10-2), win
#12 Michigan (9-3), idle
#13 Boise St (11-1), win
#14 Florida (10-2), idle

Boise likely stays above Florida and may jump Michigan; they'd have to get Top 11 (VT is ranked way down) to make the NY6.

Crayton · 08-11-2020 07:31 AM

New Years Six Selections:
Rose: #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #4 LSU (10-2)
Sugar: #2 Alabama (12-1) vs. #3 Texas (12-1)
Orange: #23 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #7 Wisconsin (12-1)
Peach: #5 UCF (12-1) vs. #6 Utah (10-2)
Fiesta: #8 Washington State (12-1) vs. #10 Boise State (12-1)
Cotton: #11 USC (10-3) vs. #9 Michigan (9-3)
Next Two Out:
#12 Georgia (10-3)
#13 Florida (10-2)

Data Dump:

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (13-0) 22.6 Ohio St (W 45-10 vs. Wisconsin)+1

#2 (12-1) 24.1 Alabama (W 31-20 vs. Georgia)+1

#3 (12-1) 20.3 Texas (W 34-31 vs. Oklahoma)+1

#4 (10-2) 20.1 LSU ---BYE---+2

#5 (12-1) 19.4 UCF (W 37-17 vs. Navy)+4

#6 (10-2) 17.9 Utah ---BYE---+4

#7 (12-1) 17 Wisconsin (L 10-45 vs. Ohio St)-6

#8 (11-2) 10.6 Wash St (W 23-20 vs. USC)+3

#9 (9-3) 22.7 Michigan ---BYE---+3

#10 (12-1) 18.3 Boise St (W 31-28 vs. San Diego St)+3

#11 (10-3) 13.6 USC (L 20-23 vs. Wash St)-6

#12 (10-3) 19.9 Georgia (L 20-31 vs. Alabama)-4

#13 (10-2) 18.4 Florida ---BYE---+1

#14 (9-3) 9.6 Washington ---BYE---+1

#15 (9-3) 14.8 Penn State ---BYE---+4

#16 (9-3) 12.2 Iowa ---BYE---+0

#17 (9-3) 22.9 Notre Dame ---BYE---+0

#18 (9-3) 12.2 Oregon ---BYE---+3

#19 (11-2) 12.1 Clemson (L 17-18 vs. Virginia Tech)-12

#20 (10-2) 7.1 Memphis ---BYE---+0

#21 (9-3) 13 Texas A*M ---BYE---+1

#22 (9-3) 12.3 Auburn ---BYE---+1

#23 (11-2) 3.2 Virginia Tech (W 18-17 vs. Clemson)+3

#24 (10-3) 12.8 Western Michigan (W 36-20 vs. Ohio)+5

#25 (10-2) 6.1 Miami ---BYE---+0

#26 (10-3) 2.7 Navy (L 17-37 vs. UCF)-8

#27 (9-3) 1.9 Miss St ---BYE---+0

#28 (7-5) 10.3 Mich St ---BYE---+4

#29 (8-4) 10.2 Minnesota ---BYE---+1

#30 (9-4) 11.5 Oklahoma (L 31-34 vs. Texas)-2

#31 (8-4) 11.3 Houston ---BYE---+0

#32 (10-3) 6 App St (L 27-28 vs. Louisiana)-8

#33 (8-4) 5.7 Oklahoma St ---BYE---+0

#34 (8-4) 6.1 Baylor ---BYE---+0

#35 (7-5) 12 Nebraska ---BYE---+1

#36 (8-4) 5.6 TCU ---BYE----1

#37 (7-5) 6.2 South Carolina ---BYE---+1

#38 (9-3) 4 Air Force ---BYE----1

#39 (8-4) 5.3 Wake Forest ---BYE---+0

#40 (7-5) 2.3 Tennessee ---BYE---+0

#41 (7-5) 3.5 Indiana ---BYE---+0

#42 (7-5) 2.2 Northwestern ---BYE---+0

#43 (7-5) 7.3 Arizona St ---BYE---+0

#44 (8-4) 2.6 SMU ---BYE---+0

#45 (7-5) 7.3 Missouri ---BYE---+0

#46 (10-3) 5.5 FAU (W 21-20 vs. Southern Miss)+7

#47 (9-3) 4 Troy ---BYE----1

#48 (6-6) 1.9 BYU ---BYE----1

#49 (8-4) 1 Georgia St ---BYE---+0

#50 (8-4) 3.1 Virginia ---BYE---+1

#51 (9-4) 3 Louisiana (W 28-27 vs. App St)+3

#52 (7-5) 9.2 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0

#53 (7-5) 0.8 Pittsburgh ---BYE---+2

#54 (7-5) 2.5 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+2

#55 (7-5) 0.9 Boston College ---BYE---+2

#56 (6-6) 0.1 West Virginia ---BYE---+2

#57 (5-7) 7.3 Stanford ---BYE---+4

#58 (6-6) 0.1 Iowa St ---BYE---+1

#59 (9-4) -1.8 Ohio (L 20-36 vs. Western Michigan)-11

#60 (9-4) 0 Southern Miss (L 20-21 vs. FAU)-10

#61 (7-5) -3.3 Buffalo ---BYE---+2

#62 (6-6) -5.5 Texas Tech ---BYE---+2

#63 (4-8) 6.9 Colorado ---BYE---+2

#64 (8-5) -1.8 San Diego St (L 28-31 vs. Boise St)-4

#65 (6-6) -2.8 Kansas St ---BYE----3

#66 (4-8) -2 Purdue ---BYE---+0

#67 (7-5) -4.6 Wyoming ---BYE---+0

#68 (5-7) 0.6 Ole Miss ---BYE---+0

#69 (5-7) -1.9 Oregon St ---BYE---+0

#70 (7-5) -2.9 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0

#71 (5-7) 5.6 Cincinnati ---BYE---+2

#72 (6-6) 0.4 Temple ---BYE---+2

#73 (8-4) -14 FIU ---BYE----2

#74 (6-6) 4 Toledo ---BYE---+1

#75 (5-7) 2.9 Florida St ---BYE----3

#77 (7-5) -1.6 Army (W 27-24 vs. UConn)-1

#78 (4-8) 8.8 Arizona ---BYE---+1

#79 (5-7) 0 Tulsa ---BYE----1

#80 (4-8) -0.3 UCLA ---BYE---+0

#81 (5-7) -2.8 Arkansas St ---BYE---+3

#82 (7-5) -3.6 La Tech ---BYE----1

#83 (6-6) -11.7 Marshall ---BYE----1

#84 (6-6) -0.3 North Texas ---BYE----1

#85 (5-7) -4.9 Syracuse ---BYE---+0

#86 (5-7) -4 Ga Southern ---BYE---+0

#87 (5-7) 0.1 Utah St ---BYE---+0

#88 (4-8) -12.6 California ---BYE---+0

#89 (4-8) -5.9 Georgia Tech ---BYE---+0

#90 (3-9) -3.1 Maryland ---BYE---+0

#91 (4-8) -5.2 Illinois ---BYE---+1

#92 (7-5) -18.2 UAB ---BYE----1

#93 (6-7) -5.6 Hawaii ---BYE---+0

#94 (4-8) -10.8 Kentucky ---BYE---+0

#95 (5-7) -11.8 Colorado St ---BYE---+0

#96 (4-8) -9.6 Louisville ---BYE---+0

#97 (3-9) -4.1 Rutgers ---BYE---+1

#98 (3-9) -1.4 Arkansas ---BYE----1

#99 (4-8) -7.8 North Carolina ---BYE---+0

#100 (6-6) -11.6 Middle Tennessee ---BYE---+0

#101 (5-7) -7.9 Fresno St ---BYE---+0

#102 (4-8) -7.4 NC State ---BYE---+0

#103 (4-8) -9 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0

#104 (3-9) -7.9 USF ---BYE---+1

#105 (3-9) -7.1 Tulane ---BYE----1

#106 (3-9) -10.2 Vanderbilt ---BYE---+0

#107 (6-6) -10.5 Liberty ---BYE---+0

#108 (5-7) -11.6 Charlotte ---BYE---+0

#109 (5-7) -14.6 Nevada ---BYE---+0

#110 (4-8) -10.9 Rice ---BYE---+0

#111 (4-8) -11.7 UTSA ---BYE---+0

#112 (3-9) -16.6 UNLV ---BYE---+0

#113 (3-9) -14.7 Duke ---BYE---+0

#114 (3-9) -10.1 Central Michigan ---BYE---+1

#115 (3-9) -13.7 La Monroe ---BYE---+1

#116 (4-8) -19 UConn (L 24-27 vs. Army)-2

#117 (2-10) -11 Kansas ---BYE---+0

#118 (3-9) -12 South Alabama ---BYE---+0

#119 (4-8) -14.3 WKU ---BYE---+0

#120 (2-10) -16.1 Ball St ---BYE---+0

#121 (3-9) -9.5 Akron ---BYE---+0

#122 (2-10) -15.5 East Carolina ---BYE---+0

#123 (3-9) -16.9 UMass ---BYE---+0

#124 (2-10) -17.1 Kent St ---BYE---+0

#125 (2-10) -16.6 UTEP ---BYE---+0

#126 (2-10) -15.4 San Jose St ---BYE---+0

#127 (1-11) -17.2 Texas St ---BYE---+0

#128 (2-11) -18.6 New Mexico ---BYE---+0

#129 (2-10) -22.7 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#130 (1-11) -20.9 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0

Crayton · 08-11-2020 04:06 PM

An alternate reality within an alternate reality? Here is what the postseason could look like with quarterfinals in the bowls. One game is added alongside the Conference Championships, a Wild Card Game between the top two at-larges, so that nearly 100% of playoff teams have 13 games.

Wild Card Game Result: LSU 34 - Utah 24

Each P5 has a host bowl, broken only to avoid two Top Three teams playing one another. The highest 2 (if 2+ win) of the Top Three will not be paired in the semis, which will be paired taking into account travel and rematches.

New Years Bowls: same every year, chose the old BCS sites
Rose: #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #7 Washington State (11-2)
Sugar: #2 Alabama (12-1) vs. #6 Wisconsin (12-1)
Orange: #3 LSU (11-2) vs. #8 Virginia Tech (11-2)
Fiesta: #4 Texas (12-1) vs. #5 UCF (12-1)

As none of these matchups are potentials in the "real" NY6 so all will be simmed.

Rose: Ohio State 55 - Washington State 14
Orange: LSU 59 - Virginia Tech 17
Sugar: Alabama 30 - Wisconsin 20
Fiesta: UCF 49 - Texas 28 (wow!)

Lots of blow-outs. Surprised by the Fiesta Bowl result though.

Semifinals:
Pasadena: #1 Ohio State (14-0) vs. #3 LSU (12-2)
New Orleans: #2 Alabama (13-1) vs. #5 UCF (13-1)

As Ohio State - LSU is a "real" semifinal, we'll hold off on completing this alternate alternate reality.

Crayton · 08-11-2020 04:35 PM

Crayton's Crazy Playoff

10 champs, 6 at-larges, no CCGs, max 3 per conference.

Losing the final regular season game (hopefully a rivalry game) is the first tie-breaker within conferences, disqualifies a team from hosting a playoff game, and disqualifies a team from an at-large spot (unless they lost to a Top 8 team). This makes the final regular season game a quasi-Round-of-32 game.

NORTH REGION (winner goes to Rose)
#4 Western Michigan (9-3) @ #1 Wisconsin (12-0)
#3 Michigan (9-3) @ #2 LSU (10-2)

EAST REGION (winner goes to Sugar)
#4 App St (10-2) @ #1 Ohio State (12-0)
#3 Utah (10-2) @ #2 Georgia (10-2)

SOUTH REGION (winner goes to Sugar)
#4 Southern Miss (9-3) @ #1 Alabama (11-1)
#3 UCF (11-1) @ #2 Clemson (11-1)

WEST REGION (winner goes to Rose)
#4 Washington (9-3) @ #1 Texas (11-1)
#3 Boise St (11-1) @ #2 USC (10-2)
*Washington defeated Washington State and took their playoff spot; Boise moved up to a 3-seed because of this.

Crayton · 08-12-2020 04:50 PM

NORTH REGION (winner goes to Rose)
12-47 // #4 Western Michigan (9-3) @ #1 Wisconsin (12-0)
33-28 // #3 Michigan (9-3) @ #2 LSU (10-2)
24-42 // #3 Michigan (10-3) @ #1 Wisconsin (13-0)

EAST REGION (winner goes to Sugar)
21-41 // #4 App St (10-2) @ #1 Ohio State (12-0)
31-21 // #3 Utah (10-2) @ #2 Georgia (10-2)
14-17 // #3 Utah (11-2) @ #1 Ohio State (13-0)

SOUTH REGION (winner goes to Sugar)
10-23 // #4 Southern Miss (9-3) @ #1 Alabama (11-1)
21-42 // #3 UCF (11-1) @ #2 Clemson (11-1)
21-47 // #2 Clemson (12-1) @ #1 Alabama (12-1)

WEST REGION (winner goes to Rose)
21-22 // #4 Washington (9-3) @ #1 Texas (11-1)
31-33 // #3 Boise St (11-1) @ #2 USC (10-2)
24-31 // #2 USC (11-2) @ #1 Texas (12-1)

SEMIFINALS:
ROSE: Wisconsin (14-0) vs. Texas (13-1)
SUGAR: Ohio State (14-0) vs. Alabama (13-1)
CHAMPIONSHIP: Rose vs. Sugar winners in Miami

The Sugar Bowl is a potential Championship matchup in the "real" alternate reality, so we'll pause this playoff format here. The real NY6 will be the next thing we explore, along with all championship formats.

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-12-2020 05:40 PM

How on earth does Wisconsin fall all the way to 7? I’d put them at 5. Losing to Ohio St is way more respectable than losing to Memphis. Utah has 2 losses and play in a weak conference.

I’d expect to see Wisconsin in the Fiesta against the best PAC 12 available.

Crayton · 08-13-2020 12:01 AM

(08-12-2020 05:40 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: How on earth does Wisconsin fall all the way to 7? I’d put them at 5. Losing to Ohio St is way more respectable than losing to Memphis. Utah has 2 losses and play in a weak conference.

I’d expect to see Wisconsin in the Fiesta against the best PAC 12 available.

Whether #5 or #7, as the highest ranking team from the SEC/ND/BT Wisconsin will play in the Orange Bowl.

There are different kinds of 12-1 preformances. Was Wisconsin a dominant team with a single bad game or were they overacheivers eeking out 12 wins? It was more the latter; that and the poor timing of their loss outweighed their strong record.

For comparison, here is the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule for Wisconsin and the teams who jumped them:

#2 Alabama (19 + 5.0)
#3 Texas (18.5 + 1.5)
#4 LSU (15.5 + 4.5)
#5 UCF (23 - 3.5)
#6 Utah (16 + 2.0)
#7 Wisconsin (10.5 + 6.5)

We've not seen much of how the real committee reacts to undefeated teams losing in CCGs. The computer committee defaults to the above dominance calculation (roughly), when a team fails in the playoff atmosphere of their championship game. Had Wisconsin been Top 4 in dominance they would have stayed Top 4 in the ranking.

schmolik · 08-13-2020 05:11 AM

(08-13-2020 12:01 AM)Crayton Wrote:
(08-12-2020 05:40 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: How on earth does Wisconsin fall all the way to 7? I’d put them at 5. Losing to Ohio St is way more respectable than losing to Memphis. Utah has 2 losses and play in a weak conference.

I’d expect to see Wisconsin in the Fiesta against the best PAC 12 available.

Whether #5 or #7, as the highest ranking team from the SEC/ND/BT Wisconsin will play in the Orange Bowl.

There are different kinds of 12-1 preformances. Was Wisconsin a dominant team with a single bad game or were they overacheivers eeking out 12 wins? It was more the latter; that and the poor timing of their loss outweighed their strong record.

For comparison, here is the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule for Wisconsin and the teams who jumped them:

#2 Alabama (19 + 5.0)
#3 Texas (18.5 + 1.5)
#4 LSU (15.5 + 4.5)
#5 UCF (23 - 3.5)
#6 Utah (16 + 2.0)
#7 Wisconsin (10.5 + 6.5)

We've not seen much of how the real committee reacts to undefeated teams losing in CCGs. The computer committee defaults to the above dominance calculation (roughly), when a team fails in the playoff atmosphere of their championship game. Had Wisconsin been Top 4 in dominance they would have stayed Top 4 in the ranking.

Wisconsin was #1 (at least by the ratings listed here) going into the B1G Championship and Ohio State was #2. If #2 beats #1, I don't care if the score is 45-3, the loser shouldn't fall all the way to #7. The #1 shows Wisconsin was "dominant" throughout the regular season. They were ranked ahead of Ohio State who was also undefeated playing in the Big Ten East.

Two straight years a two loss Big Ten champion can't even get into the CFP but a two loss loser who lost to Mississippi State can get in? Yeah, why don't we just give the SEC two automatic bids to the CFP every year?

Crayton · 08-14-2020 03:22 PM

New Years Six:
Rose: 22-21 // #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #4 LSU (10-2)
Sugar: 49-20 // #2 Alabama (12-1) vs. #3 Texas (12-1)
Orange: 14-41 // #23 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #7 Wisconsin (12-1)
Peach: 27-29 // #5 UCF (12-1) vs. #6 Utah (10-2)
Fiesta: 30-24 // #8 Washington State (12-1) vs. #10 Boise State (12-1)
Cotton: 21-45 // #11 USC (10-3) vs. #9 Michigan (9-3)
Championship:
31-28 // #1 Ohio State (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1)

5-1-2 Semifinals:
Rose: 22-21 // #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 LSU (12-2)
Sugar: 47-14 // #2 Alabama (13-1) vs. #5 UCF (13-1)
*Same National Championship; used the same Rose outcome

Crayton's Crazy Playoff Semifinal:
ROSE: 20-23 // Wisconsin (14-0) vs. Texas (13-1)
SUGAR: 31-28 // Ohio State (14-0) vs. Alabama (13-1)
CHAMP: 29-17 // Ohio State (15-0) vs. Texas (14-1)

Ohio State is undefeated!

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-14-2020 07:33 PM

It would figure my Buckeyes would win the sim after the idiotic conference brass voted not to play.

Crayton · 01-11-2021 11:08 PM

Well, looks like Ohio State will not defeat Alabama IRL.
Those were the only 2 NY6 teams this sim got right.

quo vadis · 01-11-2021 11:48 PM

Congratulations Alabama, 2020 National Champions!

Crayton · 01-12-2021 12:07 AM

(01-11-2021 11:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote: Congratulations Alabama, 2020 National Champions!

Just realized I should change the thread title to avoid confusion.

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