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Crayton · 08-07-2020 02:14 PM

Final: Ohio State wins National Championship
Update: New Years Six Selections
Update: CCG Results
Added: Week 13 Analysis

Top 25 Losses for Week 13:
27-37 // #5 Wash St (10-1) vs. #23 Washington (8-3)
17-33 // #6 Michigan (9-2) vs. #2 Ohio St (11-0)
21-32 // #10 Notre Dame (9-2) vs. #9 USC (9-2)
28-31 // #13 Iowa (9-2) vs. #1 Wisconsin (11-0)
28-34 // #15 Texas A*M (9-2) vs. #7 LSU (9-2)
14-40 // #17 Auburn (9-2) vs. #3 Alabama (10-1)

The only upset here was in the Apple Cup, with the Huskies knocking the Cougars out of playoff contention. With Oregon beating Oregon State 24-21 in the rivalry fka the Civil War, the Pac-12 North finished with a 3-way tie. That tie is won by the team with the "highest ranking in the SportSource Analytics poll entering the final weekend of the regular season." The editor there has not yet released those rankings, so I used ranking "after" this weekend, but in either case WSU goes to Vegas, largely because they avoided the Big Ten in OOC play.

Who will join the Big Ten Champion and Alabama (if they win out), in the playoff? Likely Texas (if they win out), but it seems pretty wide open, surprisingly. Analysis will be posted tomorrow.

In the Pac 12, USC (9-2) had an impressive win over Notre Dame (9-2) as they too go to Vegas, likely with playoff hopes, even if dimmed by WSU's loss.

In the ACC, Miami (9-2, 6-1) defeated Duke (3-8, 0-7), 34-17, eliminating Virginia (8-3, 5-2), who then lost to Virginia Tech (9-2, 6-1) 24-29, eliminating Miami. Clemson (10-1) inched by South Carolina (7-4) 26-20 but has poor playoff chances, even with only 1 loss; the average ranking of ACC teams is actually worse, this year, than those of the American.

In the Big 12, Oklahoma (8-3) earned a rematch against the Longhorns by obliterating Texas Tech (6-5) 50-17. Texas (10-1) beat OSU (8-3) 27-24 and is likely a win away from their first trip to the College Football Playoff.

In the SEC, Georgia (9-2) showed up against Georgia Tech (4-7), winning 54-10. They face an Alabama team who ran all over once cinderella team Auburn 40-17.

In the American, UCF (10-1, 6-1) secured a slim victory over USF (3-8, 2-5) 20-17, and will face Navy (9-2, 8-0) for the Conference Championship.

In the Mountain West, Boise State (10-1, 7-0) defeated Colorado State (5-6, 4-3) at a slowed pace, 32-24. San Diego State (7-4, 5-2) defeated Hawaii (6-6, 4-3) at a more upbeat 50-28. The two will face off in Boise next week.

In Conference USA, La Tech (7-4, 6-1) lost to FIU (8-3, 5-2), 17-18, opening the door for Southern Miss (8-3, 5-2) to take the division; they did, routing UAB 49-7. In the East, FIU's win wasn't enough as FAU (8-3, 5-2) also won, defeating Middle Tennessee 39-13.

In the Sun Belt, after Troy (9-2, 6-1) stumbled into their finale against App State (9-2, 7-0), losing to Tennessee by 7, the Trojans continued to fall flat on their face in Boone, losing 21-44. Louisiana (8-3, 5-2), who has already clinched the West, lost to La Monroe 21-28. The Cajun's hopes of winning the conference are slim, having lost to the Mountaineers 14-36 earlier this year.

In the MAC, WMU (8-3, 6-1) held on to its lead in the West, by beating Buffalo (7-4, 5-2) 26-17. Miami(OH) (7-4, 5-2) also lost to a West team, EMU, by a score of 10-46. That left Ohio (8-3, 5-2) the MAC-East champion by default; the Bobcats at least pulled out a victory, defeating Akron 20-13.

Among the Independents, Liberty (5-6) clinched bowl eligibility by defeating UMass (3-8) by a score of 43-10.

IWokeUpLikeThis · 08-07-2020 02:28 PM

Dammit, Wazzu's dream seasons always seem to crash in the Apple Cup.

BePcr07 · 08-07-2020 02:31 PM

(08-07-2020 02:28 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: Dammit, Wazzu's dream seasons always seem to crash in the Apple Cup.

That's why rivalry week is my favorite. I wish all schools would play their main rival on the same weekend. A team can go undefeated until that game and rivals tend to show up.

Crayton · 08-07-2020 02:57 PM

(08-07-2020 02:28 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: Dammit, Wazzu's dream seasons always seem to crash in the Apple Cup.

With the benefit of owning the program this is simulated on, I calculate that Wazzu can still make the playoff if UCF and Texas lose and if the margin of victory in the Pac-12 and Big Ten Championships exceed a combined 130 points. Needless to say, that did not occur in 10,000 simulations.

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-07-2020 03:29 PM

So P5 CCGs are:

12-0 Wisconsin vs 12-0 Ohio St
10-2 Miami vs 11-1 Clemson
10-2 Wash St vs 10-2 USC
10-2 Georgia vs 11-1 Alabama
9-3 Oklahoma vs 11-1 Texas

I’d say the PAC 12 is out.

You could argue that Clemson, Alabama, and Texas are all in win-and-in situations but unless there’s a blowout in the Big Ten CCG the loser of that game has a strong claim to a playoff berth.

Georgia, Oklahoma, and Miami probably are only in a position to play spoiler because if one of them wins a 2nd Big Ten team gets in. 2 or more of them would have to get an upset for one of them to get in. Oklahoma will not be going whatsoever.

DawgNBama · 08-07-2020 04:01 PM

(08-07-2020 02:31 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:
(08-07-2020 02:28 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: Dammit, Wazzu's dream seasons always seem to crash in the Apple Cup.

That's why rivalry week is my favorite. I wish all schools would play their main rival on the same weekend. A team can go undefeated until that game and rivals tend to show up.

It would be nice, but in this day and age, not always possible. For example, let's say that there's a devoted Troy Trojans fan who makes it a point to go to as many Trojans games as he can, but his daughter is a student at Auburn and his son is a student at Florida State. What is the poor guy supposed to do for rivalry week?? And just to make things more interesting, let say his wife graduated from Alabama.

Crayton · 08-07-2020 06:09 PM

(08-07-2020 03:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: So P5 CCGs are:

12-0 Wisconsin vs 12-0 Ohio St
10-2 Miami vs 11-1 Clemson
10-2 Wash St vs 10-2 USC
10-2 Georgia vs 11-1 Alabama
9-3 Oklahoma vs 11-1 Texas

I’d say the PAC 12 is out.

You could argue that Clemson, Alabama, and Texas are all in win-and-in situations but unless there’s a blowout in the Big Ten CCG the loser of that game has a strong claim to a playoff berth.

Georgia, Oklahoma, and Miami probably are only in a position to play spoiler because if one of them wins a 2nd Big Ten team gets in. 2 or more of them would have to get an upset for one of them to get in. Oklahoma will not be going whatsoever.

Of those 1-loss teams, Clemson needs the most help because they’ve beaten 0 ranked teams (away from my computer, but I think that’s right). They’ll play VT, because Miami lost to VT earlier (sorry, OP is poorly worded), but all 3 ACC teams lost to someone from the Midwest. USC may even have a leg up on Clemson because of common opponent, Wisconsin certainly would.

Not sure if I want UCF to make the playoff because while they certainly should go if they deserve it, I’m afraid it’ll make my sim seem unrealistic.

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-07-2020 08:37 PM

(08-07-2020 06:09 PM)Crayton Wrote:
(08-07-2020 03:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: So P5 CCGs are:

12-0 Wisconsin vs 12-0 Ohio St
10-2 Miami vs 11-1 Clemson
10-2 Wash St vs 10-2 USC
10-2 Georgia vs 11-1 Alabama
9-3 Oklahoma vs 11-1 Texas

I’d say the PAC 12 is out.

You could argue that Clemson, Alabama, and Texas are all in win-and-in situations but unless there’s a blowout in the Big Ten CCG the loser of that game has a strong claim to a playoff berth.

Georgia, Oklahoma, and Miami probably are only in a position to play spoiler because if one of them wins a 2nd Big Ten team gets in. 2 or more of them would have to get an upset for one of them to get in. Oklahoma will not be going whatsoever.

Of those 1-loss teams, Clemson needs the most help because they’ve beaten 0 ranked teams (away from my computer, but I think that’s right). They’ll play VT, because Miami lost to VT earlier (sorry, OP is poorly worded), but all 3 ACC teams lost to someone from the Midwest. USC may even have a leg up on Clemson because of common opponent, Wisconsin certainly would.

Not sure if I want UCF to make the playoff because while they certainly should go if they deserve it, I’m afraid it’ll make my sim seem unrealistic.

Nah, I just can’t read. So what do you think? 2 Big Ten schools in the playoffs?

Crayton · 08-07-2020 08:52 PM

(08-07-2020 08:37 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:
(08-07-2020 06:09 PM)Crayton Wrote:
(08-07-2020 03:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: So P5 CCGs are:

12-0 Wisconsin vs 12-0 Ohio St
10-2 Miami vs 11-1 Clemson
10-2 Wash St vs 10-2 USC
10-2 Georgia vs 11-1 Alabama
9-3 Oklahoma vs 11-1 Texas

I’d say the PAC 12 is out.

You could argue that Clemson, Alabama, and Texas are all in win-and-in situations but unless there’s a blowout in the Big Ten CCG the loser of that game has a strong claim to a playoff berth.

Georgia, Oklahoma, and Miami probably are only in a position to play spoiler because if one of them wins a 2nd Big Ten team gets in. 2 or more of them would have to get an upset for one of them to get in. Oklahoma will not be going whatsoever.

Of those 1-loss teams, Clemson needs the most help because they’ve beaten 0 ranked teams (away from my computer, but I think that’s right). They’ll play VT, because Miami lost to VT earlier (sorry, OP is poorly worded), but all 3 ACC teams lost to someone from the Midwest. USC may even have a leg up on Clemson because of common opponent, Wisconsin certainly would.

Not sure if I want UCF to make the playoff because while they certainly should go if they deserve it, I’m afraid it’ll make my sim seem unrealistic.

Nah, I just can’t read. So what do you think? 2 Big Ten schools in the playoffs?

I really hope not. I dislike schools backing into the playoffs and in an ideal world the 4 teams would all be champs. Undefeated Wisconsin lost in ‘17 and dropped all the way out.

Survey says, however, that the most likely field is Texas, Alabama, Wisconsin, AND Ohio State.

**Fighting Muskie** · 08-07-2020 08:59 PM

But who is more deserving of a playoff spot between teams with 1 loss? To me, if someone’s only loss is to the playoff’s #1 seed them they are the most deserving compared to someone who lost to lesser competition.

Crayton · 08-07-2020 10:06 PM

(08-07-2020 08:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: But who is more deserving of a playoff spot between teams with 1 loss? To me, if someone’s only loss is to the playoff’s #1 seed them they are the most deserving compared to someone who lost to lesser competition.

Generally, you also look at who they beat. If Team A goes 3-1 against Top 25 competition and Team B goes 0-1, with that 1 loss to the #1 team, Team A still has a more impressive resume. Those aren’t actual numbers from this sim, but an easy example. It’s the same argument that gets 2-loss P5 teams ranked above undefeated G5 teams. Sure you didn’t lose, but who did you actually beat.

Beyond that there are other factors: strength of schedule, whether your margin of victory against that schedule is slim or absurd, and traditional head-to-head considerations. A 2-loss SEC team (whether LSU or Alabama) could also have victories over 2 P5 champs, that may be more impressive than a 1-loss Clemson who went 1-1 against two 3-loss teams.

RobtheAggie · 08-08-2020 07:56 AM

So @Crayton, due NMSU win a game in your simulation? Just wondering how many tears I would have shed this year.

Crayton · 08-08-2020 03:34 PM

(08-08-2020 07:56 AM)RobtheAggie Wrote: So @Crayton, due NMSU win a game in your simulation? Just wondering how many tears I would have shed this year.

L 20-22 UCLA (ouch)
L 31-38 UAB
L 17-29 Akron
L 20-34 New Mexico
L 31-32 UTEP (so close)
L 10-33 Texas St (Bobcats' lone win)
L 17-49 Hawaii
L 10-26 Fresno St
L 10-46 Louisiana
W 30-20 UMass
W 20-17 FCS (winning streak!)
L 21-57 Florida

Bottom Ten:
#121 Akron (3-9) beat NMSU, Toledo, and Kent St
#122 East Carolina (2-10) *beat 8-4 SMU and FCS opponent
#123 UMass (3-9) *beat Akron, FIU, and FCS opponent
#124 Kent St (2-10) *beat CMU and FCS opponent
#125 UTEP (2-10) *beat NMSU and 9-3 USM
#126 SJSU (2-10) *beat UNM and 4-7 UConn
#127 Texas St (1-11) *only beat NMSU
#128 New Mexico (2-11) *also beat UMass
#129 New Mexico St (2-10)
#130 Old Dominion (1-11) *somehow beat 7-5 UAB

Crayton · 08-08-2020 03:43 PM

Data Dump:

Code:

100% (11-1)+W Alabama (63%)

100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (50%)

100% (12-0)+W Wisconsin (49%)

100% (11-1)+W Texas (76%)

80% (12-0)+L  Ohio St (49%)

79% (12-0)+L  Wisconsin (50%)

73% (11-1)+L  Alabama (36%)

35% (10-2)      LSU (100%)

20% (10-2)+W USC (61%)

3% (11-1)+W UCF (79%)

2% (11-1)+W Clemson (76%)

0% (10-2)+W Georgia (36%)

0% (11-1)+W Boise St (92%)

Overall Playoff %

1) 90.43% Alabama

2) 90.27% Ohio St

3) 89.77% Wisconsin

4) 76.61% Texas

5) 35.04% LSU

6) 12.83% USC

7) 2.63% UCF

8) 2.05% Clemson

9) 0.28% Georgia

10) 0.09% Boise St

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (12-0) 19.6 Wisconsin (W 31-28 vs. Iowa)+0

#2 (12-0) 20 Ohio St (W 33-17 vs. Michigan)+0

#3 (11-1) 23.5 Alabama (W 40-14 vs. Auburn)+0

#4 (11-1) 20.8 Texas (W 27-24 vs. Oklahoma St)+0

#5 (10-2) 14 USC (W 32-21 vs. Notre Dame)+4

#6 (10-2) 20.1 LSU (W 34-28 vs. Texas A*M)+1

#7 (11-1) 13 Clemson (W 26-20 vs. South Carolina)+1

#8 (10-2) 20.4 Georgia (W 54-10 vs. Georgia Tech)+6

#9 (11-1) 19.1 UCF (W 20-17 vs. USF)+2

#10 (10-2) 17.8 Utah (W 24-13 vs. Colorado)+6

#11 (10-2) 10 Wash St (L 27-37 vs. Washington)-6

#12 (9-3) 22.7 Michigan (L 17-33 vs. Ohio St)-6

#13 (11-1) 19.7 Boise St (W 32-24 vs. Colorado St)-1

#14 (10-2) 18.5 Florida (W 27-24 vs. Florida St)+4

#15 (9-3) 9.6 Washington (W 37-27 vs. Wash St)+8

#16 (9-3) 12.2 Iowa (L 28-31 vs. Wisconsin)-3

#17 (9-3) 23.3 Notre Dame (L 21-32 vs. USC)-7

#18 (10-2) 3.2 Navy (W 21-17 vs. Army)+3

#19 (9-3) 14.5 Penn State (W 22-19 vs. Rutgers)+0

#20 (10-2) 7.2 Memphis (W 23-17 vs. Tulane)+0

#21 (9-3) 11.9 Oregon (W 24-21 vs. Oregon St)+1

#22 (9-3) 13 Texas A*M (L 28-34 vs. LSU)-7

#23 (9-3) 12.2 Auburn (L 14-40 vs. Alabama)-6

#24 (10-2) 6.5 App St (W 44-21 vs. Troy)+1

#25 (10-2) 6 Miami (W 34-17 vs. Duke)-1

#26 (10-2) 2.3 Virginia Tech (W 29-24 vs. Virginia)+2

#27 (9-3) 1.9 Miss St (W 32-31 vs. Ole Miss)-1

#28 (9-3) 11.2 Oklahoma (W 50-17 vs. Texas Tech)-1

#29 (9-3) 12.6 Western Michigan (W 26-17 vs. Buffalo)+5

#30 (8-4) 10.5 Minnesota (W 27-24 vs. Nebraska)-1

#31 (8-4) 11.3 Houston (W 33-17 vs. Tulsa)+4

#32 (7-5) 10.1 Mich St (W 29-13 vs. Maryland)-1

#33 (8-4) 5.8 Oklahoma St (L 24-27 vs. Texas)+0

#34 (8-4) 6.1 Baylor (W 35-28 vs. Kansas St)+5

#35 (8-4) 5.7 TCU (W 40-28 vs. Kansas)+3

#36 (7-5) 12 Nebraska (L 24-27 vs. Minnesota)-6

#37 (9-3) 4.3 Air Force (W 24-21 vs. Utah St)+4

#38 (7-5) 6.4 South Carolina (L 20-26 vs. Clemson)-1

#39 (8-4) 5.4 Wake Forest (W 38-21 vs. Boston College)+4

#40 (7-5) 2.3 Tennessee (W 31-21 vs. Vanderbilt)+5

#41 (7-5) 3.2 Indiana (W 20-17 vs. Purdue)+5

#42 (7-5) 2.4 Northwestern (W 54-14 vs. Illinois)+5

#43 (7-5) 7.2 Arizona St (W 22-19 vs. Arizona)+7

#44 (8-4) 2.7 SMU (L 27-29 vs. East Carolina)-12

#45 (7-5) 7.4 Missouri (W 31-27 vs. Arkansas)+3

#46 (9-3) 4.1 Troy (L 21-44 vs. App St)-10

#47 (6-6) 1.9 BYU (L 24-39 vs. Stanford)-3

#48 (9-3) -1.7 Ohio (W 20-13 vs. Akron)+1

#49 (8-4) 1 Georgia St (W 33-21 vs. Ga Southern)+6

#50 (9-3) -0.4 Southern Miss (W 49-7 vs. UAB)+2

#51 (8-4) 2.9 Virginia (L 24-29 vs. Virginia Tech)-11

#52 (7-5) 9.3 Eastern Michigan (W 46-10 vs. Miami(OH))+4

#53 (9-3) 5.8 FAU (W 39-13 vs. Middle Tennessee)+0

#54 (8-4) 2.7 Louisiana (L 21-28 vs. La Monroe)-12

#55 (7-5) 0.8 Pittsburgh (W 35-10 vs. Syracuse)+11

#56 (7-5) 2.5 Northern Illinois (W 32-31 vs. Bowling Green)+6

#57 (7-5) 0.9 Boston College (L 21-38 vs. Wake Forest)-3

#58 (6-6) 0.2 West Virginia (L 17-37 vs. Iowa St)-7

#59 (6-6) 0.2 Iowa St (W 37-17 vs. West Virginia)+13

#60 (8-4) -3.4 San Diego St (W 50-28 vs. Hawaii)+11

#61 (5-7) 7.3 Stanford (W 39-24 vs. BYU)+12

#62 (6-6) -2.8 Kansas St (L 28-35 vs. Baylor)-4

#63 (7-5) -3.4 Buffalo (L 17-26 vs. Western Michigan)-4

#64 (6-6) -5.4 Texas Tech (L 17-50 vs. Oklahoma)-3

#65 (4-8) 6.9 Colorado (L 13-24 vs. Utah)-1

#66 (4-8) -1.8 Purdue (L 17-20 vs. Indiana)-3

#67 (7-5) -4.6 Wyoming (W 28-21 vs. New Mexico)+2

#68 (5-7) 0.5 Ole Miss (L 31-32 vs. Miss St)-8

#69 (5-7) -2 Oregon St (L 21-24 vs. Oregon)+1

#70 (7-5) -2.7 Miami(OH) (L 10-46 vs. Eastern Michigan)-13

#71 (8-4) -14.1 FIU (W 18-17 vs. La Tech)+12

#72 (5-7) 3.1 Florida St (L 24-27 vs. Florida)-7

#73 (5-7) 5.7 Cincinnati (W 21-14 vs. Temple)+6

#74 (6-6) 0.4 Temple (L 14-21 vs. Cincinnati)-7

#75 (6-6) 3.8 Toledo (W 59-10 vs. Ball St)+5

#76 (6-5) 0.3 Army (L 17-21 vs. Navy)-8

#78 (5-7) 0.1 Tulsa (L 17-33 vs. Houston)-2

#79 (4-8) 8.8 Arizona (L 19-22 vs. Arizona St)-5

#80 (4-8) -0.4 UCLA (L 17-24 vs. California)-2

#81 (7-5) -3.7 La Tech (L 17-18 vs. FIU)-6

#82 (6-6) -11.5 Marshall (W 19-10 vs. Old Dominion)+9

#83 (6-6) -0.4 North Texas (W 32-6 vs. UTSA)+9

#84 (5-7) -2.7 Arkansas St (W 34-27 vs. South Alabama)+9

#85 (5-7) -4.8 Syracuse (L 10-35 vs. Pittsburgh)-4

#86 (5-7) -3.8 Ga Southern (L 21-33 vs. Georgia St)-4

#87 (5-7) 0.1 Utah St (L 21-24 vs. Air Force)-3

#88 (4-8) -12.7 California (W 24-17 vs. UCLA)+12

#89 (4-8) -5.9 Georgia Tech (L 10-54 vs. Georgia)-4

#90 (3-9) -3.2 Maryland (L 13-29 vs. Mich St)-3

#91 (7-5) -18.3 UAB (L 7-49 vs. Southern Miss)-1

#92 (4-8) -5.4 Illinois (L 14-54 vs. Northwestern)-6

#93 (6-7) -5.7 Hawaii (L 28-50 vs. San Diego St)-5

#94 (4-8) -10.7 Kentucky (L 24-43 vs. Louisville)-5

#95 (5-7) -11.8 Colorado St (L 24-32 vs. Boise St)+3

#96 (4-8) -9.5 Louisville (W 43-24 vs. Kentucky)+10

#97 (3-9) -1.5 Arkansas (L 27-31 vs. Missouri)-3

#98 (3-9) -4.4 Rutgers (L 19-22 vs. Penn State)-2

#99 (4-8) -8.1 North Carolina (W 39-21 vs. NC State)+8

#100 (6-6) -11.8 Middle Tennessee (L 13-39 vs. FAU)-3

#101 (5-7) -8.1 Fresno St (W 24-14 vs. San Jose St)+4

#102 (4-8) -7.3 NC State (L 21-39 vs. North Carolina)-7

#103 (4-8) -9.2 Bowling Green (L 31-32 vs. Northern Illinois)-4

#104 (3-9) -6.9 Tulane (L 17-23 vs. Memphis)-2

#105 (3-9) -7.8 USF (L 17-20 vs. UCF)-2

#106 (3-9) -10.1 Vanderbilt (L 21-31 vs. Tennessee)-5

#107 (6-6) -10.8 Liberty (W 43-10 vs. UMass)+3

#108 (5-7) -11.6 Charlotte (W 33-28 vs. WKU)+4

#109 (5-7) -14.7 Nevada (L 17-37 vs. UNLV)-5

#110 (4-8) -10.8 Rice (W 17-14 vs. UTEP)+3

#111 (4-8) -11.7 UTSA (L 6-32 vs. North Texas)-2

#112 (3-9) -16.6 UNLV (W 37-17 vs. Nevada)+9

#113 (3-9) -14.8 Duke (L 17-34 vs. Miami)-2

#114 (4-7) -20.9 UConn ---BYE---+3

#115 (3-9) -10.1 Central Michigan (L 20-23 vs. Kent St)-7

#116 (3-9) -13.6 La Monroe (W 28-21 vs. Louisiana)+7

#117 (2-10) -11 Kansas (L 28-40 vs. TCU)-3

#118 (3-9) -12.1 South Alabama (L 27-34 vs. Arkansas St)-2

#119 (4-8) -14.4 WKU (L 28-33 vs. Charlotte)-4

#120 (2-10) -16.1 Ball St (L 10-59 vs. Toledo)-2

#121 (3-9) -9.4 Akron (L 13-20 vs. Ohio)-2

#122 (2-10) -15.4 East Carolina (W 29-27 vs. SMU)+6

#123 (3-9) -16.8 UMass (L 10-43 vs. Liberty)-3

#124 (2-10) -17.2 Kent St (W 23-20 vs. Central Michigan)+3

#125 (2-10) -16.6 UTEP (L 14-17 vs. Rice)-3

#126 (2-10) -15.6 San Jose St (L 14-24 vs. Fresno St)-2

#127 (1-11) -17.1 Texas St (L 21-47 vs. Coastal Carolina)-2

#128 (2-11) -18.4 New Mexico (L 21-28 vs. Wyoming)-2

#129 (2-10) -22.7 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#130 (1-11) -21 Old Dominion (L 10-19 vs. Marshall)+0

Top G5 Champ %

1) 79.13% UCF

2) 20.08% Navy

3) 0.79% Boise St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

98.2% Ohio St (0/0) *4815*

97.83% Wisconsin (0/0) *4788*

83.1% UCF (0/0) *397*

76.74% Clemson (0/0) *0*

76.61% Texas (0/0) *0*

63.32% Alabama (0/0) *0*

61.45% USC (0/0) *0*

58.43% LSU (5843/10000) *0*

41.57% Utah (4157/10000) *0*

38.55% Wash St (0/0) *0*

36.68% Georgia (0/0) *0*

23.39% Oklahoma (0/0) *0*

23.26% Virginia Tech (0/0) *0*

20.08% Navy (0/0) *0*

0.79% Boise St (0/0) *0*

#1 Wisconsin, #2 Ohio State, #3 Alabama, and #4 Texas are all in with wins. The fourth spot is still tricky. Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Alabama each have >70% chance of making it even with a loss, but none are guaranteed.

#6 LSU (10-2), then, has the greatest chance of making the playoff. The Tigers have already defeated both Texas (20-17) and Alabama (31-14) and have a more impressive SRS (eye-test / power-rating) than both undefeated Big Ten teams. In the right scenario they could ascend to the playoff.

#5 USC (10-2) is next. They have one more game to play and are given a 61% chance to defeat Washington State. If they win there is no reason to expect they'd fall below LSU, however, they don't have the head-to-head victories or impressive power-ratings to trump the Big Ten game loser and likely need to win big or have both Alabama and Texas lose.

At the bottom of playoff chances are #7 Clemson, #8 Georgia, #9 UCF, and #13 Boise. They likely need chaos (Texas, Alabama, and USC all losing). Georgia's early season loss to Alabama will mute their CCG victory as both will stand 11-2. Boise is a long way down the rankings. Both the Broncos and Bulldogs will likely need to put 50+ points on the scoreboard to jump the others.

RobtheAggie · 08-08-2020 06:31 PM

(08-08-2020 03:34 PM)Crayton Wrote:
(08-08-2020 07:56 AM)RobtheAggie Wrote: So @Crayton, due NMSU win a game in your simulation? Just wondering how many tears I would have shed this year.

L 20-22 UCLA (ouch)
L 31-38 UAB
L 17-29 Akron
L 20-34 New Mexico
L 31-32 UTEP (so close)
L 10-33 Texas St (Bobcats' lone win)
L 17-49 Hawaii
L 10-26 Fresno St
L 10-46 Louisiana
W 30-20 UMass
W 20-17 FCS (winning streak!)
L 21-57 Florida

What is crazy is I could actually see every one of these games happening as they did. 3 games lost within 7 points. The Akron one did surprise me some. Such is the life of an NMSU fan. Thanks!

Crayton · 08-08-2020 08:21 PM

(08-08-2020 06:31 PM)RobtheAggie Wrote:
(08-08-2020 03:34 PM)Crayton Wrote:
(08-08-2020 07:56 AM)RobtheAggie Wrote: So @Crayton, due NMSU win a game in your simulation? Just wondering how many tears I would have shed this year.

L 20-22 UCLA (ouch)
L 31-38 UAB
L 17-29 Akron
L 20-34 New Mexico
L 31-32 UTEP (so close)
L 10-33 Texas St (Bobcats' lone win)
L 17-49 Hawaii
L 10-26 Fresno St
L 10-46 Louisiana
W 30-20 UMass
W 20-17 FCS (winning streak!)
L 21-57 Florida

What is crazy is I could actually see every one of these games happening as they did. 3 games lost within 7 points. The Akron one did surprise me some. Such is the life of an NMSU fan. Thanks!

Akron had a curious season. They finished 3-9, but played EVERYBODY close, within a score (except for the win @NMSU and a 17-32 home loss to Miami(OH)). And, yes, that includes a 24-27 loss @ The Clemson Tigers. While they finished ranked #121, they would be favored on a neutral field against more a full quarter of the FBS (33 teams).

Cyniclone · 08-08-2020 08:26 PM

(08-08-2020 03:34 PM)Crayton Wrote:
(08-08-2020 07:56 AM)RobtheAggie Wrote: So @Crayton, due NMSU win a game in your simulation? Just wondering how many tears I would have shed this year.

L 20-22 UCLA (ouch)
L 31-38 UAB
L 17-29 Akron
L 20-34 New Mexico
L 31-32 UTEP (so close)
L 10-33 Texas St (Bobcats' lone win)
L 17-49 Hawaii
L 10-26 Fresno St
L 10-46 Louisiana
W 30-20 UMass
W 20-17 FCS (winning streak!)
L 21-57 Florida

Bottom Ten:
#121 Akron (3-9) beat NMSU, Toledo, and Kent St
#122 East Carolina (2-10) *beat 8-4 SMU and FCS opponent
#123 UMass (3-9) *beat Akron, FIU, and FCS opponent
#124 Kent St (2-10) *beat CMU and FCS opponent
#125 UTEP (2-10) *beat NMSU and 9-3 USM
#126 SJSU (2-10) *beat UNM and 4-7 UConn
#127 Texas St (1-11) *only beat NMSU
#128 New Mexico (2-11) *also beat UMass
#129 New Mexico St (2-10)
#130 Old Dominion (1-11) *somehow beat 7-5 UAB

God, we're going to get all the TAKE US BACK TO THE CAA folks in fine fettle.

templefootballfan · 08-09-2020 01:50 AM

What happens in Bowl games

Crayton · 08-09-2020 10:00 PM

CCG Results:
10-45 // #1 Wisconsin (12-0) vs. #2 Ohio St (12-0)
20-31 // #8 Georgia (10-2) vs. #3 Alabama (11-1)
20-23 // #5 USC (10-2) vs. #11 Wash St (10-2)
7-37 // #18 Navy (10-2) vs. #9 UCF (11-1)
17-18 // #7 Clemson (11-1) vs. #26 Virginia Tech (10-2)
31-34 // #28 Oklahoma (9-3) vs. #4 Texas (11-1)
20-36 // #48 Ohio (9-3) vs. #29 Western Michigan (9-3)
20-21 // #50 Southern Miss (9-3) vs. #53 FAU (9-3)
27-28 // #24 App St (10-2) vs. #54 Louisiana (8-4)
28-31 // #60 San Diego St (8-4) vs. #13 Boise St (11-1)

Ohio State, Alabama, and Texas win and are headed to the playoff. Clemson and USC are upset. Who is #4??? Resumes listed alphabetically:

LSU (10-2): SEC-West Runner-Up
Best 3 Wins: Alabama (12-1), Texas (12-1), Texas A&M (9-3)
Loss(es): Florida (10-2), Miss St (9-3)
SOR: 1861 // SRS: 1802

UCF (12-1): American Champion
Best 3 Wins: Navy (10-3), Houston (8-4), SMU (8-4)
Loss(es): Memphis (10-2)
SOR: 1817 // SRS: 1791

Washington State (11-2): Pac-12 Champion
Best 3 Wins: USC (10-3), Oregon (9-3), Houston (8-4)
Loss(es): Utah (10-2), Washington (9-3)
SOR: 1838 // SRS: 1659

Wisconsin (12-1): Big Ten West Champion
Best 3 Wins: Michigan (9-3), Iowa (9-3), Notre Dame (9-3)
Loss(es): Ohio State (13-0)
SOR: 1978 // SRS: 1756

Any other considerations??

*SOR is the difficulty it takes to achieve a record, given a schedule
*SRS takes into account point-margins and is roughly equivalent to "eye test"

IWokeUpLikeThis · 08-09-2020 10:42 PM

LSU beating 2 playoff teams in Alabama and Texas, in conjunction with the replay of Ohio St whipping Wisconsin in the B1G CCG, will put LSU in the playoff.

Threaded Mode \| Linear Mode The Season that wasn't
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