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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-09-2020 06:42 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 10:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Do you believe the DNI is making up its assessment?
Understand something. Intelligence assessments are almost ALWAYS made up to some extent. You almost never have complete information, so you have to make up at least part of it. You don't have subpoena or other discovery methods, and the other side is trying to conceal information from you, so you can't possibly have a solid case. You get as much data as you can, and then make your best guess. That's one reason why they are called "intelligence estimates." And if the guessers are biased, then the guesses are going to be biased too.
I know of two contrary examples from WWII--Joe Rochefort and Bletchley Park. But both were very extraordinary situations.
Relying on an intelligence assessment as the Gospel truth is a good way to get your ass handed to you.
Of course they’re not gospel, as they are assessments. But there is a stark difference between an assessment founded on evidence that comes to a conclusion and one that is made up.
Frankly, it is impressive that you’re seemingly trying to justify this position by OO, that Dems are making up that Russia is looking to interfere with the 2020 elections, when we have ample evidence they did it in 2016 and we have our intelligence agency saying they will (and already) are doing it again.
You’re drawing an absolutely absurd false equivalency here.

I can absolutely, beyond the remotest shadow of doubt, guarantee you that Russia has been doing all it can to interfere in all aspects of our life, and we in theirs, for decades. Same with China and a few other countries, too. One corollary of that is that Russia, China, and probably others almost certainly hacked Hillary's non-secure servers 10 years ago.

OO's point is not to whether they have tried, but rather to whether their efforts have been effective. And there is little or no evidence to suggest that they have been.
08-09-2020 10:30 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Online
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Post: #62
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
Biden’s got jokes...what he didn’t have was a helmet. Always amazes me how many people ride a bike without a helmet.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-c...racks-joke
08-09-2020 10:33 PM
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georgewebb Offline
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Post: #63
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-09-2020 10:33 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Always amazes me how many people ride a bike without a helmet.

I don't get it either. What's especially bizarre to me is how often I see a family out biking with the kids wearing helmets but the parents not. Hey mom and dad: how well do you think your kid's life will go if you suffer a brain injury? Stunningly irresponsible parents.
08-09-2020 11:23 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #64
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-09-2020 10:33 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Biden’s got jokes...what he didn’t have was a helmet. Always amazes me how many people ride a bike without a helmet.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-c...racks-joke


He is setting an example for Americans, as with the mask.
08-09-2020 11:26 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-09-2020 10:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 06:42 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 10:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Do you believe the DNI is making up its assessment?
Understand something. Intelligence assessments are almost ALWAYS made up to some extent. You almost never have complete information, so you have to make up at least part of it. You don't have subpoena or other discovery methods, and the other side is trying to conceal information from you, so you can't possibly have a solid case. You get as much data as you can, and then make your best guess. That's one reason why they are called "intelligence estimates." And if the guessers are biased, then the guesses are going to be biased too.
I know of two contrary examples from WWII--Joe Rochefort and Bletchley Park. But both were very extraordinary situations.
Relying on an intelligence assessment as the Gospel truth is a good way to get your ass handed to you.
Of course they’re not gospel, as they are assessments. But there is a stark difference between an assessment founded on evidence that comes to a conclusion and one that is made up.
Frankly, it is impressive that you’re seemingly trying to justify this position by OO, that Dems are making up that Russia is looking to interfere with the 2020 elections, when we have ample evidence they did it in 2016 and we have our intelligence agency saying they will (and already) are doing it again.
You’re drawing an absolutely absurd false equivalency here.

I can absolutely, beyond the remotest shadow of doubt, guarantee you that Russia has been doing all it can to interfere in all aspects of our life, and we in theirs, for decades. Same with China and a few other countries, too. One corollary of that is that Russia, China, and probably others almost certainly hacked Hillary's non-secure servers 10 years ago.

OO's point is not to whether they have tried, but rather to whether their efforts have been effective. And there is little or no evidence to suggest that they have been.

OOs point was also that Democrats were making this up - nothing that you stated argues that the issue is made up by the Dems. As I continue to say, the only way that argument is sound is if the DNI is also completely fabricating things.

And to the point about how Russia has been doing all it can for decades - what changed? Or has our intelligence apparatus always released similar statements for the public? It seems to me that Russia has become more emboldened in how they try to interfere and are using more aggressive and overt methods, which is why the DNI is making public statements listing the explicit ways they see Russia trying to tip the scales.
08-10-2020 05:34 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #66
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 05:34 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 10:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 06:42 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 10:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Do you believe the DNI is making up its assessment?
Understand something. Intelligence assessments are almost ALWAYS made up to some extent. You almost never have complete information, so you have to make up at least part of it. You don't have subpoena or other discovery methods, and the other side is trying to conceal information from you, so you can't possibly have a solid case. You get as much data as you can, and then make your best guess. That's one reason why they are called "intelligence estimates." And if the guessers are biased, then the guesses are going to be biased too.
I know of two contrary examples from WWII--Joe Rochefort and Bletchley Park. But both were very extraordinary situations.
Relying on an intelligence assessment as the Gospel truth is a good way to get your ass handed to you.
Of course they’re not gospel, as they are assessments. But there is a stark difference between an assessment founded on evidence that comes to a conclusion and one that is made up.
Frankly, it is impressive that you’re seemingly trying to justify this position by OO, that Dems are making up that Russia is looking to interfere with the 2020 elections, when we have ample evidence they did it in 2016 and we have our intelligence agency saying they will (and already) are doing it again.
You’re drawing an absolutely absurd false equivalency here.

I can absolutely, beyond the remotest shadow of doubt, guarantee you that Russia has been doing all it can to interfere in all aspects of our life, and we in theirs, for decades. Same with China and a few other countries, too. One corollary of that is that Russia, China, and probably others almost certainly hacked Hillary's non-secure servers 10 years ago.

OO's point is not to whether they have tried, but rather to whether their efforts have been effective. And there is little or no evidence to suggest that they have been.

OOs point was also that Democrats were making this up - nothing that you stated argues that the issue is made up by the Dems. As I continue to say, the only way that argument is sound is if the DNI is also completely fabricating things.

And to the point about how Russia has been doing all it can for decades - what changed? Or has our intelligence apparatus always released similar statements for the public? It seems to me that Russia has become more emboldened in how they try to interfere and are using more aggressive and overt methods, which is why the DNI is making public statements listing the explicit ways they see Russia trying to tip the scales.

So you think that was my point?

My point is that democrats will seize upon and build upon the flimsiest of evidence to create a narrative that works against Trump - exactly as you are doing now.

They - and you - are magnifying these comment about Russia, and ignoring any about China and Iran, simply to mount yet another attack on Trump. We went through this for nearly three years with the Russia Collusion Investigation. A Trump minor official spoke to a Russian? Horrors!!! Sound the air raid sirens!!!! This is just more of the same.

You - and the Democrats - cannot point to one person, one precinct, one state that was changed in 2016 - just this nebulous "they messed with us". . Nothing new there - what is new is that you guys lost an election you thought was in the bag, that you didn't think was even close, so it had to be either Russians or extraterrestrials or a witch. So we had the witch hunt, which you - and the Democrats - supports on the flimsiest of made up, perjured evidence.

Gets old after a while. I had hoped that the Boy Crying Russians fiasco would quiet down after the Mueller report, but you - and the Democrats - cling to this old fairytale.

I don't doubt that the Russians - and Iranian, and chineses, and Swedes and Chileans, and Cubans, and Koreans North and South are all trying to sway the electiion in ways they think will benefits themselves. I can see why Iran, for example, wants Biden - in truth, they are like the bulk of the Democrats, they want Anybody But Trump. In that they are no different from you - and the Democrats.

But this is old news. This is the Boy Crying Russians again, and it is all just partisan politics, same ol', same ol'. Some of us have stopped fearing the The Red Scare.

what irks me is how you - and the democrats - sift through reports and statements seizing on what supports (in your minds) the Russian story, and ignoring what else might be in there that doesn't support your Get Trump agenda.

But since you know my point better than I do, go ahead and tell me what irks me.
08-10-2020 10:04 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #67
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 10:04 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 05:34 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 10:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 06:42 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Understand something. Intelligence assessments are almost ALWAYS made up to some extent. You almost never have complete information, so you have to make up at least part of it. You don't have subpoena or other discovery methods, and the other side is trying to conceal information from you, so you can't possibly have a solid case. You get as much data as you can, and then make your best guess. That's one reason why they are called "intelligence estimates." And if the guessers are biased, then the guesses are going to be biased too.
I know of two contrary examples from WWII--Joe Rochefort and Bletchley Park. But both were very extraordinary situations.
Relying on an intelligence assessment as the Gospel truth is a good way to get your ass handed to you.
Of course they’re not gospel, as they are assessments. But there is a stark difference between an assessment founded on evidence that comes to a conclusion and one that is made up.
Frankly, it is impressive that you’re seemingly trying to justify this position by OO, that Dems are making up that Russia is looking to interfere with the 2020 elections, when we have ample evidence they did it in 2016 and we have our intelligence agency saying they will (and already) are doing it again.
You’re drawing an absolutely absurd false equivalency here.

I can absolutely, beyond the remotest shadow of doubt, guarantee you that Russia has been doing all it can to interfere in all aspects of our life, and we in theirs, for decades. Same with China and a few other countries, too. One corollary of that is that Russia, China, and probably others almost certainly hacked Hillary's non-secure servers 10 years ago.

OO's point is not to whether they have tried, but rather to whether their efforts have been effective. And there is little or no evidence to suggest that they have been.

OOs point was also that Democrats were making this up - nothing that you stated argues that the issue is made up by the Dems. As I continue to say, the only way that argument is sound is if the DNI is also completely fabricating things.

And to the point about how Russia has been doing all it can for decades - what changed? Or has our intelligence apparatus always released similar statements for the public? It seems to me that Russia has become more emboldened in how they try to interfere and are using more aggressive and overt methods, which is why the DNI is making public statements listing the explicit ways they see Russia trying to tip the scales.

So you think that was my point?

My point is that democrats will seize upon and build upon the flimsiest of evidence to create a narrative that works against Trump - exactly as you are doing now.

They - and you - are magnifying these comment about Russia, and ignoring any about China and Iran, simply to mount yet another attack on Trump. We went through this for nearly three years with the Russia Collusion Investigation. A Trump minor official spoke to a Russian? Horrors!!! Sound the air raid sirens!!!! This is just more of the same.

You - and the Democrats - cannot point to one person, one precinct, one state that was changed in 2016 - just this nebulous "they messed with us". . Nothing new there - what is new is that you guys lost an election you thought was in the bag, that you didn't think was even close, so it had to be either Russians or extraterrestrials or a witch. So we had the witch hunt, which you - and the Democrats - supports on the flimsiest of made up, perjured evidence.

Gets old after a while. I had hoped that the Boy Crying Russians fiasco would quiet down after the Mueller report, but you - and the Democrats - cling to this old fairytale.

I don't doubt that the Russians - and Iranian, and chineses, and Swedes and Chileans, and Cubans, and Koreans North and South are all trying to sway the electiion in ways they think will benefits themselves. I can see why Iran, for example, wants Biden - in truth, they are like the bulk of the Democrats, they want Anybody But Trump. In that they are no different from you - and the Democrats.

But this is old news. This is the Boy Crying Russians again, and it is all just partisan politics, same ol', same ol'. Some of us have stopped fearing the The Red Scare.

what irks me is how you - and the democrats - sift through reports and statements seizing on what supports (in your minds) the Russian story, and ignoring what else might be in there that doesn't support your Get Trump agenda.

But since you know my point better than I do, go ahead and tell me what irks me.

This is where I feel like your statement doesn't comport with reality - the DNI is the one "Crying Russians again," not the Democrats.

If the DNI felt that the "Swedes and Chileans, and Cubans, and Koreans North and South" were trying equally to influence the election, they would have said so. What benefit exists for the DNI to exaggerate the Russian attempts?

And then your comments about sorting through reports and seizing issues while ignoring others, clearly ignores the context of the discussion. Does the DNI believe that China and Iran will attempt to influence our election in a way that benefits Trump? No - their assessment is they would prefer to see Biden in his place. Does the DNI provide the same level of detail regarding what sort of actions they may take, or have taken, to influence the election? No. But notice how I'm not trying to argue that the DNI's assessment that China and Iran trying to influence the election to support Biden is just a fever dream of the right?
08-10-2020 10:12 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #68
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 10:12 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 10:04 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 05:34 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 10:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 06:42 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Of course they’re not gospel, as they are assessments. But there is a stark difference between an assessment founded on evidence that comes to a conclusion and one that is made up.
Frankly, it is impressive that you’re seemingly trying to justify this position by OO, that Dems are making up that Russia is looking to interfere with the 2020 elections, when we have ample evidence they did it in 2016 and we have our intelligence agency saying they will (and already) are doing it again.
You’re drawing an absolutely absurd false equivalency here.

I can absolutely, beyond the remotest shadow of doubt, guarantee you that Russia has been doing all it can to interfere in all aspects of our life, and we in theirs, for decades. Same with China and a few other countries, too. One corollary of that is that Russia, China, and probably others almost certainly hacked Hillary's non-secure servers 10 years ago.

OO's point is not to whether they have tried, but rather to whether their efforts have been effective. And there is little or no evidence to suggest that they have been.

OOs point was also that Democrats were making this up - nothing that you stated argues that the issue is made up by the Dems. As I continue to say, the only way that argument is sound is if the DNI is also completely fabricating things.

And to the point about how Russia has been doing all it can for decades - what changed? Or has our intelligence apparatus always released similar statements for the public? It seems to me that Russia has become more emboldened in how they try to interfere and are using more aggressive and overt methods, which is why the DNI is making public statements listing the explicit ways they see Russia trying to tip the scales.

So you think that was my point?

My point is that democrats will seize upon and build upon the flimsiest of evidence to create a narrative that works against Trump - exactly as you are doing now.

They - and you - are magnifying these comment about Russia, and ignoring any about China and Iran, simply to mount yet another attack on Trump. We went through this for nearly three years with the Russia Collusion Investigation. A Trump minor official spoke to a Russian? Horrors!!! Sound the air raid sirens!!!! This is just more of the same.

You - and the Democrats - cannot point to one person, one precinct, one state that was changed in 2016 - just this nebulous "they messed with us". . Nothing new there - what is new is that you guys lost an election you thought was in the bag, that you didn't think was even close, so it had to be either Russians or extraterrestrials or a witch. So we had the witch hunt, which you - and the Democrats - supports on the flimsiest of made up, perjured evidence.

Gets old after a while. I had hoped that the Boy Crying Russians fiasco would quiet down after the Mueller report, but you - and the Democrats - cling to this old fairytale.

I don't doubt that the Russians - and Iranian, and chineses, and Swedes and Chileans, and Cubans, and Koreans North and South are all trying to sway the electiion in ways they think will benefits themselves. I can see why Iran, for example, wants Biden - in truth, they are like the bulk of the Democrats, they want Anybody But Trump. In that they are no different from you - and the Democrats.

But this is old news. This is the Boy Crying Russians again, and it is all just partisan politics, same ol', same ol'. Some of us have stopped fearing the The Red Scare.

what irks me is how you - and the democrats - sift through reports and statements seizing on what supports (in your minds) the Russian story, and ignoring what else might be in there that doesn't support your Get Trump agenda.

But since you know my point better than I do, go ahead and tell me what irks me.

This is where I feel like your statement doesn't comport with reality - the DNI is the one "Crying Russians again," not the Democrats.

If the DNI felt that the "Swedes and Chileans, and Cubans, and Koreans North and South" were trying equally to influence the election, they would have said so. What benefit exists for the DNI to exaggerate the Russian attempts?

And then your comments about sorting through reports and seizing issues while ignoring others, clearly ignores the context of the discussion. Does the DNI believe that China and Iran will attempt to influence our election in a way that benefits Trump? No - their assessment is they would prefer to see Biden in his place. Does the DNI provide the same level of detail regarding what sort of actions they may take, or have taken, to influence the election? No. But notice how I'm not trying to argue that the DNI's assessment that China and Iran trying to influence the election to support Biden is just a fever dream of the right?

QED
08-10-2020 10:14 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 05:34 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  OOs point was also that Democrats were making this up - nothing that you stated argues that the issue is made up by the Dems. As I continue to say, the only way that argument is sound is if the DNI is also completely fabricating things.

What the democrats appear to be fabricating are the statements that go beyond what the intel folks are saying. For example, the idea that "the Russians" specifically intervened to help Trump beat Hillary, or are intervening now to help Trump again, or the even wilder speculation that there is some sort of "collusion" between Trump and "the Russians."

Quote:And to the point about how Russia has been doing all it can for decades - what changed? Or has our intelligence apparatus always released similar statements for the public? It seems to me that Russia has become more emboldened in how they try to interfere and are using more aggressive and overt methods, which is why the DNI is making public statements listing the explicit ways they see Russia trying to tip the scales.

What changed? Nothing that I am aware of. Democrats just decided to make this a political issue because they lost in 2016. And they had to be very careful about how they do it, since acknowledging that it has gone on for decades suggests pretty strongly that Hillary's non-secure server setup was probably, almost certainly, hacked. So it had to be something that just started all of a sudden, based on "collusion" between Trump and "the Russians."
08-10-2020 10:40 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
We are in Cold War II, and this time the enemy is China, not Russia. There are a number of possible scenarios where Russia actually ends up being our ally against China. Tom Clancy described one in "The Bear and the Dragon," where Russia became a NATO member and we helped them fight Chinese attempts to take over Siberia. I don't think that is impossible at all.

In this context, I would worry much more about what China is doing than about what Russia is doing. And I would worry far more about Biden's ties to China than about any "collusion" with Russia.
08-10-2020 10:52 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 10:40 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 05:34 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  OOs point was also that Democrats were making this up - nothing that you stated argues that the issue is made up by the Dems. As I continue to say, the only way that argument is sound is if the DNI is also completely fabricating things.

What the democrats appear to be fabricating are the statements that go beyond what the intel folks are saying. For example, the idea that "the Russians" specifically intervened to help Trump beat Hillary, or are intervening now to help Trump again, or the even wilder speculation that there is some sort of "collusion" between Trump and "the Russians."

That is absolutely been born out, see the Mueller report:

Quote:Although the investigation established that the Russian government perceived it would benefit form a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome, and that the Campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts, the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.

Christ on a cracker, the revisionist history here is astounding.

100% correct that Mueller didn't find evidence of coordination/collusion, but 100% false that they didn't find evidence of Russia specifically wanting to help Trump.

Quote:
Quote:And to the point about how Russia has been doing all it can for decades - what changed? Or has our intelligence apparatus always released similar statements for the public? It seems to me that Russia has become more emboldened in how they try to interfere and are using more aggressive and overt methods, which is why the DNI is making public statements listing the explicit ways they see Russia trying to tip the scales.

What changed? Nothing that I am aware of. Democrats just decided to make this a political issue because they lost in 2016. And they had to be very careful about how they do it, since acknowledging that it has gone on for decades suggests pretty strongly that Hillary's non-secure server setup was probably, almost certainly, hacked. So it had to be something that just started all of a sudden, based on "collusion" between Trump and "the Russians."

That's a self-serving answer if I've ever seen one.

Russia become emboldened in 2016, and actually hacked one of the major political parties in the US. They appear to be poised to be just as aggressive this year - the problem is we now have citizens who shrug their shoulders like you are.

If China or Iran hacks the RNC and does a similar email dump, will you shrug your shoulders if Dems are silent?
08-10-2020 10:56 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
First off, I have very little confidence in the Mueller investigation as an objective, non-partisan process. Yes, Mueller is a republican, but it's pretty clear that he's of the never-Trumper variety republican, and it was also pretty clear from his performance before congress that his hand wasn't on the wheel. The next level under him was almost all strongly pro-Hillary democrats. And the manner in which they proceeded was pretty clearly that of an anti-Trump witch hunt. So I'm sorry, but I just don't assign much reliability to anything they produced. I take any statement from that investigation to mean that somebody wrote those words on paper, and little beyond that.

Second, Russia didn't "become emboldened in 2016." They've been actively using every intel technique against us every way they can for decades. And the same for China. And the same for us to both of them. In today's geopolitical world, if you ain't hacking, you ain't trying. If anything has changed over time, it is that the techniques have become more sophisticated as the tools have gotten better. I'm not shrugging my shoulders at anything. I just played the intel game for a lot longer than you have, and I know some things that you can never know.

As for, "If China or Iran hacks the RNC and does a similar email dump," that's predicated upon a few things that are not in evidence. The idea that Russia hacked the DNC and dumped all the emails has a few evidentiary problems. One, the analysis of the speed of the data dump suggests it was not an outside hack. Two, Assange says the source wasn't Russia. Three, the FBI was never allowed to examine the affected servers. So jumping past those to the assertion that Russia hacked the DNC is a bit hasty, at best.

As I have said repeatedly, we are in Cold War II and this time the enemy is China, not Russia. in that context, I find Biden's contacts with China to be more troubling than Trump's connections with "the Russians."
08-10-2020 11:14 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #73
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
I have a confession to make - I, personally, have "interfered" with Mexican elections by talking politics with Mexicans. Yes, Virginia, there is one party I favor - the pro trade one. The one that benefited me.

Duh.
08-10-2020 11:17 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #74
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 11:17 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I have a confession to make - I, personally, have "interfered" with Mexican elections by talking politics with Mexicans. Yes, Virginia, there is one party I favor - the pro trade one. The one that benefited me.
Duh.

And I have taken a cab ride with a Russian official, and I paid for the cab. Was that a bribe? I don't think so.

2017, Hong Kong, ride from Star Ferry landing to Hong Kong Stadium for HK7s, she was a Russian Rugby Federation official, and we were both headed to the USA-Russia match. FWIW, USA won, 14-7.
08-10-2020 11:22 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 11:14 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  First off, I have very little confidence in the Mueller investigation as an objective, non-partisan process. Yes, Mueller is a republican, but it's pretty clear that he's of the never-Trumper variety republican, and it was also pretty clear from his performance before congress that his hand wasn't on the wheel. The next level under him was almost all strongly pro-Hillary democrats. And the manner in which they proceeded was pretty clearly that of an anti-Trump witch hunt. So I'm sorry, but I just don't assign much reliability to anything they produced. I take any statement from that investigation to mean that somebody wrote those words on paper, and little beyond that.

Second, Russia didn't "become emboldened in 2016." They've been actively using every intel technique against us every way they can for decades. And the same for China. And the same for us to both of them. In today's geopolitical world, if you ain't hacking, you ain't trying. If anything has changed over time, it is that the techniques have become more sophisticated as the tools have gotten better. I'm not shrugging my shoulders at anything. I just played the intel game for a lot longer than you have, and I know some things that you can never know.

As for, "If China or Iran hacks the RNC and does a similar email dump," that's predicated upon a few things that are not in evidence. The idea that Russia hacked the DNC and dumped all the emails has a few evidentiary problems. One, the analysis of the speed of the data dump suggests it was not an outside hack. Two, Assange says the source wasn't Russia. Three, the FBI was never allowed to examine the affected servers. So jumping past those to the assertion that Russia hacked the DNC is a bit hasty, at best.

As I have said repeatedly, we are in Cold War II and this time the enemy is China, not Russia. in that context, I find Biden's contacts with China to be more troubling than Trump's connections with "the Russians."

Let’s put a fork in it - Assange said his source wasn’t Russian, that’s enough for me. Far more believable than a rather lengthy and heavily scrutinized investigation by our Justice Department...

Somehow you believe that Russia has always been trying to influence our elections, but don’t believe that they were responsible for the hacking and data transfer.

And this has nothing to do with Trump’s connections to Russia - why even bring that up? I clearly have not been commenting on that in the entire conversation. I’ve clearly been speaking solely to Russia’s actions.
08-10-2020 11:47 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 11:47 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Let’s put a fork in it - Assange said his source wasn’t Russian, that’s enough for me. Far more believable than a rather lengthy and heavily scrutinized investigation by our Justice Department...

He's been right more often than they have.

Quote:Somehow you believe that Russia has always been trying to influence our elections, but don’t believe that they were responsible for the hacking and data transfer.

No, I believe they have been trying to interfere in our society for decades, and I am agnostic on whether they did the specific hacking of the DNC because there are significant contra-evidentiary pieces that have not been reconciled. Not to mention the really weird murder of what's-his-name.

Quote:And this has nothing to do with Trump’s connections to Russia - why even bring that up? I clearly have not been commenting on that in the entire conversation. I’ve clearly been speaking solely to Russia’s actions.

OO mentioned the democrats, and they are the ones who have pushed the "collusion" narrative. And they've kind of tried to suggest that, "Hey, DNI says Russia tried to interfere, and that proves they colluded with Trump." That's the unproved and unsubstantiated part.

I think Russia's primary objective is to create hate and discord. In 2016, if you were trying to sew hate and discord, and one politician was a 90% favorite to win, would you attack the one who was a 90% favorite to win or the one who was a 10% underdog? I would think that this time they would tend to attack harder against the favorite, who currently seems to be Biden.

My bottom line is that I don't think "the Russians" or any other foreign power is apt to have much affect on USA voters, because they don't really understand us. There's a well-known story in intel circles about how the Nazis tried to sway American troops in WWII by sending out comics showing soldiers' girlfriends back home shacking up with rich Jewish bakers. To the Nazis that was a powerful symbol. To American troops, that was a stupid joke. I don't really think "the Russians" will fare much better.
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2020 12:55 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-10-2020 12:53 PM
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MOBalum Online
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Post: #77
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 12:53 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  [shacking up with rich Jewish bakers.

Ladies just can't resist the smell of fresh challah! ?
08-10-2020 01:52 PM
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tanqtonic Online
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Post: #78
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
(08-10-2020 01:52 PM)MOBalum Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 12:53 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  [shacking up with rich Jewish bakers.

Ladies just can't resist the smell of fresh challah! ?

They have tons of 'dough'.
08-10-2020 02:03 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Online
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Post: #79
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
Kamala it is
08-11-2020 03:26 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #80
RE: 2020 Presidential Race
One of the better choices in the field. Checks all the boxes.

Black
Female

But also is a very good speaker, good presence.

Legal background.

Hopefully she will get the executive experience she needs before being elevated to POTUS #47

It could have been so much worse.

If Biden loses Michigan, he may think back to this choice, though.
08-11-2020 03:47 PM
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