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Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #1
Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
POLL: Which playoff formats do you want to explore?

? = Top 14 Team
* = CCG eligible

Top 25 Losses
Week 10 **BIG LOSSES**
14-31 // *? Alabama (8-0) vs. #21 LSU (6-2)
17-20 // *? Auburn (8-0) vs. #107 Arkansas (1-7)
24-27 // *? Clemson (8-0) vs. #17 Notre Dame (6-2)
27-30 // *? Boise St (8-0) vs. #55 BYU (3-5)
24-26 // *? Penn State (6-2) vs. *29 Nebraska (6-2)
31-34 // *15 Oregon (7-1) vs. *18 USC (6-2)
7-52 // *19 South Carolina (6-2) vs. *? Georgia (6-2)
24-27 // *25 Oklahoma (6-2) vs. *73 West Virginia (4-4)

Week 11
17-33 // *? Memphis (8-1) vs. *29 Navy (7-2)
17-20 // *20 Washington (7-2) vs. *15 USC (7-2)
17-18 // *21 Miami (8-1) vs. *36 Virginia Tech (7-2)
13-30 // *24 Nebraska (7-2) vs. *19 Iowa (7-2)

Week 12
13-21 // *? Utah (9-1) vs. #64 Arizona St (5-5)
7-33 // *? Auburn (9-1) vs. *? LSU (8-2)
14-17 // *? Texas A*M (9-1) vs. *? Alabama (9-1)
20-23 // *20 Oregon (8-2) vs. *? Wash St (9-1)
14-17 // #24 Minnesota (7-3) vs. #53 Northwestern (5-5)
24-31 // *25 Houston (7-3) vs. *36 SMU (7-3)

SEC-West
*? Alabama (10-1, 6-1 SEC) (404-197)
*? LSU (9-2, 5-2 SEC) (370-190)
#15 Texas A*M (9-2, 5-2 SEC) (357-229)
*17 Auburn (9-2, 5-2 SEC) (360-212)
#26 Miss St (8-3, 4-3 SEC) (332-324)
#60 Ole Miss (5-6, 2-5 SEC) (263-298)
#94 Arkansas (3-8, 1-6 SEC) (247-319)
SEC-East
*? Georgia (9-2, 6-2 SEC) (392-207)
#18 Florida (9-2, 6-2 SEC) (436-204)
#37 South Carolina (7-4, 4-4 SEC) (319-277)
#45 Tennessee (6-5, 3-4 SEC) (251-273)
#48 Missouri (6-5, 3-4 SEC) (323-262)
#89 Kentucky (4-7, 1-7 SEC) (235-369)
#101 Vanderbilt (3-8, 0-7 SEC) (211-344)

ACC-Atlantic
*? Clemson (10-1, 8-0 ACC) (378-216)
#43 Wake Forest (7-4, 4-3 ACC) (328-258)
#54 Boston College (7-4, 4-3 ACC) (282-216)
#65 Florida St (5-6, 4-4 ACC) (299-284)
#81 Syracuse (5-6, 3-4 ACC) (284-297)
#95 NC State (4-7, 3-4 ACC) (248-281)
#106 Louisville (3-8, 1-7 ACC) (227-357)
ACC-Coastal
*28 Virginia Tech (9-2, 6-1 ACC) (340-265)
*24 Miami (9-2, 6-1 ACC) (307-213)
*40 Virginia (8-3, 5-2 ACC) (336-241)
#85 Georgia Tech (4-7, 3-5 ACC) (264-334)
#66 Pittsburgh (6-5, 2-5 ACC) (297-285)
#107 North Carolina (3-8, 2-5 ACC) (258-351)
#111 Duke (3-8, 0-7 ACC) (262-401)

Big Ten-West
*? Wisconsin (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) (367-199)
#? Iowa (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) (317-233)
#29 Minnesota (7-4, 4-4 Big Ten) (282-217)
#30 Nebraska (7-4, 4-4 Big Ten) (327-224)
#47 Northwestern (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) (302-346)
#63 Purdue (4-7, 2-6 Big Ten) (255-365)
#86 Illinois (4-7, 1-7 Big Ten) (292-341)
Big Ten-East
*? Ohio St (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) (349-192)
#? Michigan (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) (394-171)
#19 Penn State (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten) (325-205)
#31 Mich St (6-5, 3-5 Big Ten) (298-289)
#46 Indiana (6-5, 3-5 Big Ten) (338-329)
#87 Maryland (3-8, 1-7 Big Ten) (242-346)
#96 Rutgers (3-8, 1-7 Big Ten) (261-360)

Big 12
*? Texas (10-1, 8-0 Big 12) (405-171)
*27 Oklahoma (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) (310-212)
*33 Oklahoma St (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) (301-233)
*38 TCU (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) (294-235)
*39 Baylor (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) (315-252)
*51 West Virginia (6-5, 4-4 Big 12) (298-288)
#58 Kansas St (6-5, 3-5 Big 12) (257-285)
#61 Texas Tech (6-5, 3-5 Big 12) (256-298)
#72 Iowa St (5-6, 3-5 Big 12) (268-294)
#114 Kansas (2-9, 1-7 Big 12) (207-351)

Pac 12-North
*? Wash St (10-1, 7-1 Pac 12) (349-257)
#22 Oregon (8-3, 6-2 Pac 12) (317-221)
*23 Washington (8-3, 6-2 Pac 12) (281-242)
#70 Oregon St (5-6, 3-5 Pac 12) (251-306)
#73 Stanford (4-7, 3-6 Pac 12) (272-252)
#100 California (3-8, 1-7 Pac 12) (194-399)
Pac 12-South
*? USC (9-2, 8-1 Pac 12) (297-231)
#16 Utah (9-2, 6-2 Pac 12) (365-182)
#50 Arizona St (6-5, 3-5 Pac 12) (312-249)
#64 Colorado (4-7, 2-6 Pac 12) (283-275)
#74 Arizona (4-7, 2-6 Pac 12) (298-232)
#78 UCLA (4-7, 2-6 Pac 12) (236-266)

American
*21 Navy (9-2, 8-0 AAC) (314-281)
*? UCF (10-1, 6-1 AAC) (453-176)
*20 Memphis (9-2, 5-2 AAC) (328-242)
#32 SMU (8-3, 5-2 AAC) (316-258)
#35 Houston (7-4, 4-3 AAC) (345-257)
#67 Temple (6-5, 3-4 AAC) (369-332)
#76 Tulsa (5-6, 3-4 AAC) (267-251)
#79 Cincinnati (4-7, 2-5 AAC) (346-307)
#103 USF (3-8, 2-5 AAC) (239-356)
#102 Tulane (3-8, 1-6 AAC) (270-362)
#128 East Carolina (1-10, 0-7 AAC) (201-383)

MW-Mountain
*? Boise St (10-1, 7-0 MWC) (499-199)
#41 Air Force (8-3, 6-1 MWC) (364-255)
#69 Wyoming (6-5, 4-3 MWC) (276-284)
#84 Utah St (5-6, 4-3 MWC) (356-319)
#98 Colorado St (5-6, 4-3 MWC) (248-331)
#126 New Mexico (2-10, 0-7 MWC) (294-458)
MW-West
*71 San Diego St (7-4, 5-2 MWC) (324-297)
*88 Hawaii (6-6, 4-3 MWC) (346-325)
#104 Nevada (5-6, 4-3 MWC) (293-334)
#105 Fresno St (4-7, 2-5 MWC) (233-256)
#121 UNLV (2-9, 1-6 MWC) (241-415)
#124 San Jose St (2-9, 1-6 MWC) (249-349)

CUSA-West
*75 La Tech (7-4, 6-1 CUSA) (303-225)
*52 Southern Miss (8-3, 5-2 CUSA) (278-228)
#90 UAB (7-4, 4-3 CUSA) (269-322)
#92 North Texas (5-6, 4-3 CUSA) (302-258)
#109 UTSA (4-7, 2-5 CUSA) (246-289)
#113 Rice (3-8, 2-5 CUSA) (240-313)
#122 UTEP (2-9, 1-6 CUSA) (212-324)
CUSA-East
*83 FIU (7-4, 5-2 CUSA) (282-342)
*53 FAU (8-3, 5-2 CUSA) (377-219)
#91 Marshall (5-6, 4-3 CUSA) (258-336)
#97 Middle Tennessee (6-5, 4-3 CUSA) (296-284)
#112 Charlotte (4-7, 3-4 CUSA) (274-307)
#115 WKU (4-7, 3-4 CUSA) (263-314)
#130 Old Dominion (1-10, 1-6 CUSA) (212-339)

MAC-West
*34 Western Michigan (8-3, 6-1 MAC) (443-266)
#56 Eastern Michigan (6-5, 5-2 MAC) (360-267)
*62 Northern Illinois (6-5, 5-2 MAC) (331-265)
#80 Toledo (5-6, 4-3 MAC) (311-281)
#108 Central Michigan (3-8, 1-6 MAC) (263-353)
#118 Ball St (2-9, 1-6 MAC) (247-397)
MAC-East
*49 Ohio (8-3, 5-2 MAC) (285-228)
*57 Miami(OH) (7-4, 5-2 MAC) (317-245)
*59 Buffalo (7-4, 5-2 MAC) (258-248)
#99 Bowling Green (4-7, 3-4 MAC) (225-302)
#119 Akron (3-8, 2-5 MAC) (252-280)
#127 Kent St (1-10, 0-7 MAC) (222-419)

Sun Belt-East
*25 App St (9-2, 7-0 Sun Belt) (318-224)
*36 Troy (9-2, 6-1 Sun Belt) (366-213)
#55 Georgia St (7-4, 4-3 Sun Belt) (270-230)
#82 Ga Southern (5-6, 4-3 Sun Belt) (252-266)
#77 Coastal Carolina (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt) (226-280)
Sun Belt-West
*42 Louisiana (8-3, 5-2 Sun Belt) (346-228)
#93 Arkansas St (4-7, 3-4 Sun Belt) (290-314)
#116 South Alabama (3-8, 2-5 Sun Belt) (241-332)
#123 La Monroe (2-9, 1-6 Sun Belt) (218-358)
#125 Texas St (1-10, 0-7 Sun Belt) (208-343)

Independents
#? Notre Dame (9-2, 9-2 ) (435-196)
#68 Army (6-4, 6-4 ) (283-226)
#44 BYU (6-5, 6-5 ) (271-305)
#110 Liberty (5-6, 5-6 ) (280-301)
#117 UConn (4-7, 4-7 ) (243-368)
#120 UMass (3-8, 3-8 ) (208-287)
#129 New Mexico St (2-10, 2-10 ) (237-403)
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2020 05:43 AM by Crayton.)
08-01-2020 05:41 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
Why would there be a poll about what kind of playoff structure to have? If this is supposed to be a computer simulation of how all previously scheduled games would have played out, why wouldn't the contractually existing playoff structure be maintained as well?
08-01-2020 07:52 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
(08-01-2020 07:52 AM)ken d Wrote:  Why would there be a poll about what kind of playoff structure to have? If this is supposed to be a computer simulation of how all previously scheduled games would have played out, why wouldn't the contractually existing playoff structure be maintained as well?
It was a goof not to give the option to select multiple options (does this board even have a mod?). Postseason games do not have preset teams; because this is an alternate reality from our own, we have the opportunity to explore multiple realities within this alternate reality. It’ll be fun! ...though I’m not going to do some insane 64 team bracket simulation. :)

The 4-team playoff, of course, will be the primary one explored. I’m open too to users here selecting the 4 teams like a committee rather than using some computer generated ranking.
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2020 09:08 AM by Crayton.)
08-01-2020 08:29 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
I’d do your sim with the post season that’s currently in place. Play out the final week of the regular season, determine CCG participants by the tie breakers in place. Sim those and then send the top 4 to playoff bowls.

As for the other bowls, pick your participants based on conference tie ins, record, and program popularity.
08-01-2020 10:48 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
Here are the playoff probabilities for each team based upon the outcome of their last game(s):

Guarantees (>95%):
100% (11-1)+W Alabama (48%)
100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (31%)
100% (11-1)+W Ohio St (16%)
100% (12-0)+W Wisconsin (35%)
100% (11-1)+W Wisconsin (16%)
99% (11-1)+W Wash St (32%)
Contenders (>30%):
94% (12-0)+L Wisconsin (32%)
88% (11-1)+W Texas (61%)
86% (10-2)+W LSU (6%)
84% (12-0)+L Ohio St (33%)
64% (11-1)+L Wisconsin (15%)
44% (11-1)+L Ohio St (18%)
43% (11-1)+L Alabama (30%)
42% (10-2)+W USC (19%)
Longshots:
29% (10-2) LSU (48%)
28% (10-2) Michigan (35%)
25% (11-1)+W Clemson (64%)
13% (10-2) Alabama (20%)
13% (10-2) Notre Dame (62%)
11% (10-2)+W Auburn (2%)
6% (10-2)+W Georgia (39%)
5% (10-2) Iowa (32%)
4% (11-1)+W UCF (75%)
<1% (11-1)+W Boise St (92%)
<1% (10-2)+W Wash St (12%)
<1% (10-2)+W Texas (17%)
<1% (10-2)+L USC (17%)

In summary, 3 spots are locked in: the Big Ten champion, Alabama (if they win out), and Washington (if they win out). The 4th spot is tricky.

The "other" of Wisconsin/Ohio State is, by-and-large, the most likely 4th team. These two are the only remaining undefeateds and one would give the other their only loss of the season.

If Alabama or Washington St stumble (or Iowa or Michigan pull upsets), another spot may open. Texas and LSU (who needs Auburn to win the Iron Bowl) are next in-line, with an interesting dynamic where LSU has 1 extra loss, but handed the Longhorns their only loss.

Further down the list we find a second Pac-12 team, USC; if the right teams lose on Rivalry Week, this may set up the rare case where the Pac-12 Championship is a play in game. By this point in the standings, the computer committee is handing spots to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, even if they lose out.

2-loss at-larges Michigan and LSU and 1-loss Clemson form the next cadre of contenders. These teams would likely need both Texas AND Washington State to lose; a 'Bama loss in the Iron Bowl would help too.

As a reminder, the above list is not an absolute basis for comparison because even with a single regular-season week remaining, their are many unique outcomes and comparisons that will influence the final; that rare <1% scenario where Boise State makes the playoff is likely due to extreme chaos up top AND absolutely blowing out Colorado State and San Diego State.

We'll see what happens. Any thoughts, hopes, or questions?
08-01-2020 03:30 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #6
RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
Do you plan on releasing week 14 results and then a separate CCG edition?
08-01-2020 04:21 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
(08-01-2020 04:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Do you plan on releasing week 14 results and then a separate CCG edition?

I originally planned to do both separately, but today thought about doing both together. Any suggestions? I think I’ll do a second whole season too, so any suggestions from folks are welcome on how to improve the whole rollout.

Current Overall Playoff Chances:
1) 92.75% Wisconsin
2) 84.63% Ohio St
3) 65.11% Alabama
4) 53.92% Texas
5) 31.92% Wash St
6) 20.13% LSU
7) 16.24% Clemson
8) 9.99% Michigan
9) 8.38% USC
10) 8.18% Notre Dame
11) 3.36% UCF
12) 2.56% Georgia
13) 1.75% Iowa
14) 0.74% Boise St
15) 0.34% Auburn
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2020 06:34 PM by Crayton.)
08-01-2020 06:25 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
Here is a breakdown for a hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff. It includes the chances teams play for and win their conference. One of the 2 at large spots is given to the winner of a Wild Card Game played on Championship Saturday. This descreases (but does not eliminate) the chances a CCG loser makes the playoff.

Wins/Appearances
ACC
76/100% Clemson
14/63% Va Tech
10/37% Miami
<1% Virginia

Big Ten
52/100% Wisconsin
48/100% Ohio State

Big 12
79/100% Texas
19/89% Oklahoma
1/6% OK State
<1/2% TCU
<1/1% Baylor
<1/1% West Virginia

SEC
41/100% Georgia
49/80% Alabama
7/12% LSU
3/8% Auburn

Pac-12
53/100% USC
45/94% Washington St
2/6% Washington

Group of Five
76/77/96% UCF
16/94/100% Boise St
8/21/100% Navy
<1/2/4% Memphis
<1/40/66% App State
<1/18/34% Troy

Wild Card
24/48% LSU
25/41% Notre Dame
23/39% Michigan
8/25% Iowa
6/19% Texas A&M
9/16% Alabama
5/10% Utah
<1/2% Auburn
<1% Washington St
<1% Florida

Last Spot
45% Wisconsin
45% Ohio State
8% UCF
1% Alabama
<1% LSU, Michigan, Iowa, Utah
08-01-2020 07:10 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
With assumed victories (ND over USC, but USC in Pac-12 Title game, etc) and overall playoff chances, here is the projected NY6:

SUGAR: Alabama vs. Ohio State
ROSE: Wisconsin vs. Texas
ORANGE: Clemson vs. LSU
FIESTA: Wash St vs. Boise St
PEACH: Notre Dame vs. Michigan
COTTON: USC vs. UCF

Both Boise St and UCF are poised for a NY6 bid, but a loss will sink either and a Clemson loss may displace Boise with a low-ranked ACC Champ. Would not be surprised to see both G5 teams paired
Yesterday 02:28 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 10-13) and postseason poll
I like this hypothetical future
Yesterday 03:56 PM
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