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2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #1 Marshall
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Luckyshot Offline
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Post: #61
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12?
(08-03-2020 08:11 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(08-03-2020 08:02 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  C-USA preseason Media Poll Charlotte #7 in the eastern division

Fake news.

Nobody ever finishes last with a brand new logo. Look it up.

Last year's preseason poll, new logo is this year.
08-04-2020 05:05 PM
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FAU Connoisseur! Offline
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Post: #62
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12?
(08-04-2020 05:00 PM)FIU4Ever Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 01:09 PM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 10:01 AM)FIU4Ever Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 09:55 AM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  
(08-03-2020 07:06 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #12 Charlotte 117.75

I was surprised the data predicted a down season for Charlotte in 2020. Going into this, I actually thought the Clt was going to build on last season's success. But, before their 2020 class the recruiting had been really bad. Healy had a great first season, but the eastern division is very strong in 2020. Charlotte probably won't be able to surprise teams, and their lack of depth is a concern. While Charlotte has brought in some player to fill holes, they probably don't have enough to compete with the more talented programs in C-USA East.

Charlotte (2-6)
L- @ FAU
L- @ North Texas
L- FIU
W- UTEP
L- @ MTSU
W- ODU
L- @ Marshall
L- WKU


I'll post #11 later this week.

I will respectfully have to disagree with your prognosis of FIU beating Charlotte. I definitely see FIU losing this one on the road. What Charlotte DOES have is more than any FIU team could handle.

Charlotte vs FIU -> 0-5
Charlotte vs FAU-> 2-3

I would pencil in a L for the Hooters of the rat's mouth for this one

07-coffee3

I penciled in a loss for the golden panthers on this one.

With Chris Robison out at Hooter's U, I think Side Show Joe will have to completely redo the East rankings.

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2020/8/4...ick-tronti

Perhaps, but we will be 14-5 after the 2020 Shula Bowl...also it's been 1,403 days since FIU last beat FAU.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2020 05:51 PM by FAU Connoisseur!.)
08-04-2020 05:50 PM
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ghostofclt! Offline
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Post: #63
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12?
clt says this is absurd. No mention of

New logo
Airport
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Best recruiting class yet
Increased donations to 49er club
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#clublit
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New SSS
08-04-2020 06:00 PM
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wh49er Offline
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RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12?
I’m wonder if this NT fan is the same one on twitter that can’t get over the last second loss last year.
08-04-2020 08:07 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #65
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12 Charlotte
(08-04-2020 05:00 PM)FIU4Ever Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 01:09 PM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 10:01 AM)FIU4Ever Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 09:55 AM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  
(08-03-2020 07:06 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #12 Charlotte 117.75

I was surprised the data predicted a down season for Charlotte in 2020. Going into this, I actually thought the Clt was going to build on last season's success. But, before their 2020 class the recruiting had been really bad. Healy had a great first season, but the eastern division is very strong in 2020. Charlotte probably won't be able to surprise teams, and their lack of depth is a concern. While Charlotte has brought in some player to fill holes, they probably don't have enough to compete with the more talented programs in C-USA East.

Charlotte (2-6)
L- @ FAU
L- @ North Texas
L- FIU
W- UTEP
L- @ MTSU
W- ODU
L- @ Marshall
L- WKU


I'll post #11 later this week.

I will respectfully have to disagree with your prognosis of FIU beating Charlotte. I definitely see FIU losing this one on the road. What Charlotte DOES have is more than any FIU team could handle.

Charlotte vs FIU -> 0-5
Charlotte vs FAU-> 2-3

I would pencil in a L for the Hooters of the rat's mouth for this one

07-coffee3

I penciled in a loss for the golden panthers on this one.

With Chris Robison out at Hooter's U, I think Side Show Joe will have to completely redo the East rankings.

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2020/8/4...ick-tronti

I have now accounted for his departure. It did not effect rankings 12 through 14.
08-06-2020 06:20 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #66
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12 Charlotte
(08-04-2020 08:07 PM)wh49er Wrote:  I’m wonder if this NT fan is the same one on twitter that can’t get over the last second loss last year.

No. I have a flip-phone. 04-rock
08-06-2020 06:21 PM
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ImfromClayton Offline
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Post: #67
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12 Charlotte
(08-06-2020 06:21 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 08:07 PM)wh49er Wrote:  I’m wonder if this NT fan is the same one on twitter that can’t get over the last second loss last year.

No. I have a flip-phone. 04-rock

If you were a marshal fan I'd ask if you were wearing jorts. But North Texas, I'm going to guess cargo shorts. tan-khaki.
08-06-2020 08:22 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #68
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12 Charlotte
(08-06-2020 08:22 PM)ImfromClayton Wrote:  
(08-06-2020 06:21 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 08:07 PM)wh49er Wrote:  I’m wonder if this NT fan is the same one on twitter that can’t get over the last second loss last year.

No. I have a flip-phone. 04-rock

If you were a marshal fan I'd ask if you were wearing jorts. But North Texas, I'm going to guess cargo shorts. tan-khaki.

Ha! I'm not one for most modern tech gadgets or fashion. If I don't have to wear a suit, I'm in jeans and a North Texas t-shirt. And, the only shorts I wear are board shorts, when I jump in my pool or on the rare occasion I get to go surfing.
08-07-2020 07:22 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #69
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #12 Charlotte
#11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them ahead of Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2020 06:04 PM by Side Show Joe.)
08-08-2020 04:55 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #70
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 04:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them behind Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.

Say it ain’t so, Joe.
08-08-2020 04:59 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #71
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 04:59 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-08-2020 04:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them behind Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.

Say it ain’t so, Joe.

I wish it was not so. I like Rice and actually thought they would rank higher. If it makes you feel better, it is looking less likely that we will even have a season, so Rice has a strong chance of going undefeated.
08-08-2020 06:08 PM
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ODU2011 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-06-2020 06:21 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 08:07 PM)wh49er Wrote:  I’m wonder if this NT fan is the same one on twitter that can’t get over the last second loss last year.

No. I have a flip-phone. 04-rock

Dad?!?!
08-08-2020 06:15 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #73
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 06:15 PM)ODU2011 Wrote:  
(08-06-2020 06:21 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-04-2020 08:07 PM)wh49er Wrote:  I’m wonder if this NT fan is the same one on twitter that can’t get over the last second loss last year.

No. I have a flip-phone. 04-rock

Dad?!?!

Ha! I just have different priorities in my life, and a smart phone is not one of them. In truth, if it were not for my wife, I wouldn't have a cell phone at all. Most modern products just don't do much for me. Nice big flat-screen TVs and good air-conditioning is as far as I go with modern products. I prefer to own quality goods. I think Harlan Potter said it best in the Long Goodbye... "We make the best packages in the world,... the stuff inside is mostly junk". The paragraphs leading up to that quote would shock most people today.
08-08-2020 06:36 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #74
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 06:08 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-08-2020 04:59 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-08-2020 04:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them behind Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.

Say it ain’t so, Joe.

I wish it was not so. I like Rice and actually thought they would rank higher. If it makes you feel better, it is looking less likely that we will even have a season, so Rice has a strong chance of going undefeated.

I don’t put much stock in preseason polls even in a normal year, so I put even less in these things this year. Just funning with ya.
08-08-2020 07:18 PM
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greyowl72 Offline
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Post: #75
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
Normally, I would’ve challenged this ranking. I think we would have one of the better defenses in CUSA this coming year. And with transfers coming in I would expect us to perform in the middle of the pack this season.
However, I seriously doubt we will have a football season this year. And if we do it probably will be truncated and, essentially, meaningless.
So....Meh.
08-08-2020 08:39 PM
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Post: #76
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(07-28-2020 09:49 AM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  I have finished my annual predictions for the 2020 season (If we get to play it). Last season there were some accurate predictions like ODU's season, the rise of Charlotte, and WKU being the most improved team, but also some big misses like the total collapse of North Texas, and the under performance of FIU. This year I have modified my formula in hopes of increasing accuracy. Again, these are my interpretations of data, and how I think the season would play out. I have left my bias out of the equation. Due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, I have limited the prediction to just conference records and bowl eligibility. The OOC portion of the schedule is changing almost daily and has a higher probability of not be played at all.

In the bigger picture, I am predicting that the eastern division will again be stronger than the western division in 2020. I believe the eastern schools will finish with a 29-27 conference record, while I believe the western schools will finish 27-29. I think the East will have 5 teams finish bowl eligible, while I think the West finishes with 4. Additionally, I believe the conditions presented by COVID-19 will alter the quality of performance on the field. As players are placed in quarantine, back ups and underclassmen will be vital to a teams success. I predict overall roster talent will be an even greater factor this season. And if we play, this factor should result in some very sloppy football for every team.

Feel free to debate. I always welcome good sound logic. This thread will be updated with changes to the title to reflect the current team be evaluated.


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11. Rice (1-7) 114.25
12. Charlotte (2-6) 117.75
13. ODU (0-8) 123.25
14. UTEP (0-8) 126.75


#14 UTEP 126.75

UTEP under Dimel has been awful. Last season I thought they might begin to turn things around, but it never happened. Dimel is in the third year of a five year contract. While logic would predict he doesn't finish the season, I'm not sure UTEP would be willing to buyout the last two years. The data is very bleak for UTEP. The Miners feature a Junior heavy lineup and they are low on overall talent compared to every C-USA programs they will face. Unfortunately for UTEP fans, I just don't see any winnable conference games on the Miners schedule this season.

UTEP (0-8)
L- @ LA Tech
L- Southern Miss
L- @ Charlotte
L- North Texas
L- FIU
L- @ UTSA
L- UAB
L- @ Rice


Check back near the end of the week. I'll post #13 around Thursday or Friday.

Perfect prediction for ODU last year. Well done. But how did your prediction for NTX work out? Let me guess what your prediction is for NTX this year.
08-08-2020 10:48 PM
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FAU Connoisseur! Offline
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Post: #77
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 04:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them ahead of Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.

OH BOY! I think FIU dodge a bullet on this one by not being on the schedule because this most certainly would have been a loss for the kitties of sweet water (which I think they think is miami, but it's not).
08-09-2020 09:51 AM
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ESE84 Offline
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RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 04:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them ahead of Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.

I’m with Greyowl72 in not getting too worked up because I don’t think we play the 2020 season. But this is the first prediction I have seen where UTSA beats Rice.

I think Joe’s formula is heavy on recruiting averages, and not specifics. Will Bloomgren finally have success with his often-hated, much debated “pound the rock” scheme? Rice did seem to turn a corner in 2019 with unexpected wins over under-achieving North Texas and MTSU teams, plus agonizingly near misses over much better opponents like Louisiana Tech and Baylor.

The defense is back, which is an important part of the scheme. Did Rice get the right transfers and recruits to take another step forward with the offense? Rice should have a chance to win each game remaining on this schedule, except maybe the games at Marshall and at Louisiana Tech. The home games with UAB and Army, and the game at North Texas may be the difference between 6-5 and 5-6.

It’s too bad we probably won’t get to know how Bloomgren’s team will fare in 2020. This is the first time I have been motivated to buy season tickets since it became clear in 2015 that the wheels had fallen off Bailiff’s program and we were doomed to a long, painful restructuring.
08-09-2020 11:57 AM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #79
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-09-2020 11:57 AM)ESE84 Wrote:  
(08-08-2020 04:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  #11 Rice 114.25

Rice checks in at #11, and I know it is going to upset a few fan bases. Yes, Rice is on the upswing, but their conference schedule just doesn't do them any favors. And, despite my prediction that they will have a worse record than Charlotte, the formula still ranks them ahead. Bloomgren brings back much of his defense, but will it be among the the better defenses in C-USA? Probably not. Rice just hasn't recruited enough talent yet. On the other side of the ball, Rice will be looking for several new starters. 1-7 in C-USA play is where I have them. Again, I have no idea why the formula placed them ahead of Charlotte, but that's where they landed.

Rice (1-7)
L- @ Marshall
L- UAB
L- MTSU
L- @ Southern Miss
L- UTSA
L- @ LA Tech
L- @ North Texas
W- UTEP


I'll post #10 on Monday.

I’m with Greyowl72 in not getting too worked up because I don’t think we play the 2020 season. But this is the first prediction I have seen where UTSA beats Rice.

I think Joe’s formula is heavy on recruiting averages, and not specifics. Will Bloomgren finally have success with his often-hated, much debated “pound the rock” scheme? Rice did seem to turn a corner in 2019 with unexpected wins over under-achieving North Texas and MTSU teams, plus agonizingly near misses over much better opponents like Louisiana Tech and Baylor.

The defense is back, which is an important part of the scheme. Did Rice get the right transfers and recruits to take another step forward with the offense? Rice should have a chance to win each game remaining on this schedule, except maybe the games at Marshall and at Louisiana Tech. The home games with UAB and Army, and the game at North Texas may be the difference between 6-5 and 5-6.

It’s too bad we probably won’t get to know how Bloomgren’s team will fare in 2020. This is the first time I have been motivated to buy season tickets since it became clear in 2015 that the wheels had fallen off Bailiff’s program and we were doomed to a long, painful restructuring.

Recruiting is certainly a part of the formula, but there is more to it than that. Rice appears to be "Junior heavy" in their line-up. In my formula that is a negative. The schedule and other factors also play important parts. But, I agree. This season is looking less and less likely, so we will probably never know how it would have played out.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2020 04:00 PM by Side Show Joe.)
08-09-2020 01:54 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #80
RE: 2020 Schedule Breakdowns: #11?
(08-08-2020 10:48 PM)ODUDJ96 Wrote:  
(07-28-2020 09:49 AM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  I have finished my annual predictions for the 2020 season (If we get to play it). Last season there were some accurate predictions like ODU's season, the rise of Charlotte, and WKU being the most improved team, but also some big misses like the total collapse of North Texas, and the under performance of FIU. This year I have modified my formula in hopes of increasing accuracy. Again, these are my interpretations of data, and how I think the season would play out. I have left my bias out of the equation. Due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, I have limited the prediction to just conference records and bowl eligibility. The OOC portion of the schedule is changing almost daily and has a higher probability of not be played at all.

In the bigger picture, I am predicting that the eastern division will again be stronger than the western division in 2020. I believe the eastern schools will finish with a 29-27 conference record, while I believe the western schools will finish 27-29. I think the East will have 5 teams finish bowl eligible, while I think the West finishes with 4. Additionally, I believe the conditions presented by COVID-19 will alter the quality of performance on the field. As players are placed in quarantine, back ups and underclassmen will be vital to a teams success. I predict overall roster talent will be an even greater factor this season. And if we play, this factor should result in some very sloppy football for every team.

Feel free to debate. I always welcome good sound logic. This thread will be updated with changes to the title to reflect the current team be evaluated.


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11. Rice (1-7) 114.25
12. Charlotte (2-6) 117.75
13. ODU (0-8) 123.25
14. UTEP (0-8) 126.75


#14 UTEP 126.75

UTEP under Dimel has been awful. Last season I thought they might begin to turn things around, but it never happened. Dimel is in the third year of a five year contract. While logic would predict he doesn't finish the season, I'm not sure UTEP would be willing to buyout the last two years. The data is very bleak for UTEP. The Miners feature a Junior heavy lineup and they are low on overall talent compared to every C-USA programs they will face. Unfortunately for UTEP fans, I just don't see any winnable conference games on the Miners schedule this season.

UTEP (0-8)
L- @ LA Tech
L- Southern Miss
L- @ Charlotte
L- North Texas
L- FIU
L- @ UTSA
L- UAB
L- @ Rice


Check back near the end of the week. I'll post #13 around Thursday or Friday.

Perfect prediction for ODU last year. Well done. But how did your prediction for NTX work out? Let me guess what your prediction is for NTX this year.

Please do. I would like to see how close you get.
08-09-2020 01:55 PM
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