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Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
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Crayton Offline
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Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
Wow! 5 Top 11 teams lose in Week 7 and Alabama demolishes #21 Miss State by 64 points, likely on their way to another SEC Championship. Scroll down for standings and more highlights. I'll provide commentary on each conference over the week.

Top 25 Losses
Week 7
24-31 // #6 Michigan (5-1) vs. #29 Minnesota (4-2)
21-24 // #7 Utah (6-0) vs. #30 Washington (3-2)
23-24 // #8 Notre Dame (5-1) vs. #43 Pittsburgh (4-1)
31-50 // #10 Texas A*M (6-0) vs. #5 Auburn (6-0)
10-22 // #11 UCF (5-0) vs. #22 Memphis (4-1)
14-36 // #14 Iowa (5-1) vs. #12 Penn State (4-1)
3-67 // #21 Miss St (4-1) vs. #1 Alabama (6-0)

Week 8
27-32 // #6 Penn State (5-1) vs. #2 Ohio St (6-0)
28-31 // #8 LSU (6-1) vs. #29 Miss St (4-2)
28-39 // #12 South Carolina (5-1) vs. #13 Texas A*M (6-1)
16-21 // #21 Houston (5-1) vs. #46 Navy (4-2)
28-40 // #25 Indiana (5-1) vs. #39 Mich St (3-4)

Week 9
13-35 // #6 Florida (6-1) vs. #16 Georgia (5-2)
17-22 // #13 Oklahoma (6-1) vs. #57 TCU (4-3)
21-30 // #21 Minnesota (6-2) vs. #31 Mich St (4-4)
14-41 // #22 Miss St (5-2) vs. #5 Auburn (7-0)

SEC-West
#1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC) (338-121)
#3 Auburn (8-0, 5-0 SEC) (304-128)
#10 Texas A*M (7-1, 3-1 SEC) (270-198)
#21 LSU (6-2, 2-2 SEC) (252-148)
#26 Miss St (5-3, 2-3 SEC) (234-273)
#60 Ole Miss (3-5, 1-4 SEC) (208-240)
#107 Arkansas (1-7, 0-5 SEC) (148-262)
SEC-East
#19 South Carolina (6-2, 4-2 SEC) (244-147)
#16 Florida (6-2, 4-2 SEC) (310-135)
#8 Georgia (6-2, 3-2 SEC) (252-165)
#35 Missouri (5-3, 3-2 SEC) (238-192)
#43 Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC) (182-209)
#58 Kentucky (4-4, 1-4 SEC) (180-242)
#102 Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-5 SEC) (147-233)

ACC-Atlantic
#5 Clemson (8-0, 7-0 ACC) (244-165)
#86 NC State (3-5, 3-2 ACC) (171-218)
#51 Boston College (5-3, 2-2 ACC) (207-151)
#49 Wake Forest (5-3, 2-2 ACC) (223-184)
#62 Syracuse (4-4, 2-2 ACC) (226-202)
#68 Florida St (3-5, 2-3 ACC) (216-210)
#93 Louisville (3-5, 1-5 ACC) (183-257)
ACC-Coastal
#23 Miami (7-1, 4-0 ACC) (236-161)
#39 Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-1 ACC) (240-203)
#38 Pittsburgh (6-2, 2-2 ACC) (228-163)
#53 Virginia (5-3, 2-2 ACC) (231-194)
#80 Georgia Tech (3-5, 2-4 ACC) (196-235)
#98 North Carolina (2-6, 1-4 ACC) (185-266)
#100 Duke (3-5, 0-4 ACC) (204-277)

Big Ten-East
#2 Ohio St (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) (218-143)
#12 Penn State (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (239-153)
#9 Michigan (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (248-119)
#36 Indiana (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) (295-177)
#27 Mich St (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) (250-238)
#83 Maryland (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) (198-228)
#97 Rutgers (3-6, 1-5 Big Ten) (209-295)
Big Ten-West
#4 Wisconsin (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) (236-154)
#20 Iowa (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (203-202)
#29 Nebraska (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (274-137)
#48 Northwestern (4-4, 3-3 Big Ten) (210-261)
#28 Minnesota (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) (249-183)
#42 Purdue (4-4, 2-3 Big Ten) (218-256)
#81 Illinois (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) (232-238)

Big 12
#13 Texas (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) (278-143)
#25 Oklahoma (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) (223-158)
#50 Iowa St (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) (213-184)
#34 Oklahoma St (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) (227-162)
#73 West Virginia (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) (222-213)
#57 Kansas St (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) (185-187)
#44 TCU (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) (195-162)
#56 Texas Tech (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) (187-189)
#41 Baylor (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) (252-194)
#110 Kansas (2-6, 1-4 Big 12) (173-271)

Pac 12-North
#15 Oregon (7-1, 5-0 Pac 12) (235-151)
#24 Washington (6-2, 4-1 Pac 12) (227-189)
#22 Wash St (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12) (267-195)
#74 Oregon St (4-4, 2-3 Pac 12) (197-205)
#67 Stanford (3-5, 2-4 Pac 12) (209-210)
#113 California (2-7, 0-6 Pac 12) (140-354)
Pac 12-South
#14 Utah (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12) (281-140)
#18 USC (6-2, 5-1 Pac 12) (216-159)
#47 Colorado (4-4, 2-3 Pac 12) (232-176)
#65 UCLA (4-4, 2-3 Pac 12) (178-185)
#64 Arizona St (4-4, 1-4 Pac 12) (243-177)
#87 Arizona (3-6, 1-5 Pac 12) (236-177)

American
#31 Navy (6-2, 5-0 AAC) (227-213)
#7 Memphis (7-1, 4-1 AAC) (239-168)
#11 UCF (7-1, 4-1 AAC) (316-118)
#96 USF (3-5, 2-2 AAC) (181-251)
#54 Temple (5-3, 2-2 AAC) (289-214)
#32 Houston (5-3, 2-2 AAC) (259-182)
#52 SMU (5-3, 2-2 AAC) (216-189)
#70 Tulsa (4-4, 2-2 AAC) (195-164)
#76 Cincinnati (3-5, 1-3 AAC) (232-232)
#126 East Carolina (1-7, 0-4 AAC) (143-275)
#106 Tulane (1-7, 0-5 AAC) (182-279)

MW-Mountain
#6 Boise St (8-0, 5-0 MWC) (385-127)
#40 Air Force (6-2, 4-1 MWC) (227-189)
#99 Colorado St (4-4, 3-1 MWC) (201-224)
#63 Wyoming (5-3, 3-1 MWC) (188-194)
#66 Utah St (4-4, 3-1 MWC) (272-228)
#127 New Mexico (2-7, 0-4 MWC) (231-289)
MW-West
#85 San Diego St (5-3, 3-2 MWC) (259-243)
#108 Nevada (4-5, 3-2 MWC) (242-278)
#104 Hawaii (3-6, 1-3 MWC) (224-262)
#120 UNLV (2-7, 1-4 MWC) (196-364)
#128 San Jose St (1-7, 1-4 MWC) (180-265)
#119 Fresno St (2-6, 0-4 MWC) (170-194)

CUSA-West
#79 La Tech (5-3, 4-1 CUSA) (248-165)
#90 North Texas (4-4, 3-1 CUSA) (210-183)
#61 Southern Miss (6-3, 3-2 CUSA) (223-187)
#92 UAB (5-3, 2-2 CUSA) (189-242)
#122 UTEP (2-6, 1-3 CUSA) (150-230)
#116 Rice (2-6, 1-3 CUSA) (182-222)
#109 UTSA (3-5, 1-3 CUSA) (183-229)
CUSA-East
#89 Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 CUSA) (220-220)
#95 WKU (4-4, 3-1 CUSA) (197-188)
#91 FIU (5-3, 3-1 CUSA) (186-213)
#77 FAU (5-3, 2-2 CUSA) (189-170)
#103 Marshall (3-6, 2-3 CUSA) (206-289)
#124 Charlotte (2-6, 1-3 CUSA) (199-257)
#130 Old Dominion (0-8, 0-4 CUSA) (142-219)

MAC-West
#30 Western Michigan (7-2, 5-0 MAC) (399-224)
#84 Northern Illinois (4-4, 3-1 MAC) (270-205)
#88 Toledo (4-5, 3-2 MAC) (259-230)
#69 Eastern Michigan (4-5, 3-2 MAC) (251-234)
#114 Ball St (2-7, 1-4 MAC) (206-306)
#111 Central Michigan (2-6, 0-4 MAC) (190-276)
MAC-East
#45 Buffalo (6-2, 4-0 MAC) (200-155)
#82 Miami(OH) (5-4, 3-2 MAC) (251-204)
#71 Ohio (5-3, 2-2 MAC) (200-182)
#118 Akron (3-6, 2-3 MAC) (217-238)
#115 Bowling Green (2-6, 1-3 MAC) (164-220)
#123 Kent St (1-7, 0-4 MAC) (168-338)

Sun Belt-East
#33 App St (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt) (224-158)
#37 Troy (7-1, 4-1 Sun Belt) (309-159)
#72 Ga Southern (4-4, 3-2 Sun Belt) (181-202)
#59 Georgia St (5-3, 2-2 Sun Belt) (191-173)
#75 Coastal Carolina (3-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) (159-206)
Sun Belt-West
#46 Louisiana (6-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) (243-144)
#105 South Alabama (3-5, 2-2 Sun Belt) (183-248)
#94 Arkansas St (2-6, 1-3 Sun Belt) (189-219)
#112 La Monroe (2-6, 1-4 Sun Belt) (191-225)
#125 Texas St (1-7, 0-4 Sun Belt) (143-245)

Independents
#17 Notre Dame (6-2, 6-2 ) (321-156)
#78 Army (4-3, 4-3 ) (204-149)
#101 Liberty (4-5, 4-5 ) (233-240)
#121 UConn (3-5, 3-5 ) (181-288)
#55 BYU (3-5, 3-5 ) (170-248)
#117 UMass (3-5, 3-5 ) (140-205)
#129 New Mexico St (0-9, 0-9 ) (166-309)
07-25-2020 08:16 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.
07-25-2020 08:29 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-25-2020 08:29 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.

Have you followed us in recent years? 8-0 is not an uncommon start. Losing 2 of the last 4 is also not uncommon.
07-25-2020 10:32 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-25-2020 10:32 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-25-2020 08:29 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.

Have you followed us in recent years? 8-0 is not an uncommon start. Losing 2 of the last 4 is also not uncommon.

This could be the Broncs' year. The Big Ten is down to 2 undefeated teams, the SEC also has 2 (plus 7-1 A&M), the ACC has undefeated Clemson, the Big 12 has a 1-loss Texas, and the Pac-12 has 1-loss Utah and Oregon (and... checks notes, Washington State). There is a good chance that we end up with fewer than 4 P5 champs with 1 loss or fewer.

Or, Boise could fall apart against BYU again, though it is at home this year. Computers put that as the biggest game with a trip to Laramie clocking in at #2. New Mexico is a joke and Colorado St and the MW-West (76% chance its 5-3 San Diego St) champ should be easy pickins on the Blue Turf.

Here are the chances each team finishes as the top G5 Champ:

1) 72.2% Boise St
2) 16.77% UCF
3) 10.36% Memphis
4) 0.26% Navy
5) 0.24% Western Michigan
6) 0.1% App St
7) 0.07% Troy
(This post was last modified: 07-25-2020 11:17 PM by Crayton.)
07-25-2020 11:16 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-25-2020 11:16 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(07-25-2020 10:32 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-25-2020 08:29 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.

Have you followed us in recent years? 8-0 is not an uncommon start. Losing 2 of the last 4 is also not uncommon.

This could be the Broncs' year. The Big Ten is down to 2 undefeated teams, the SEC also has 2 (plus 7-1 A&M), the ACC has undefeated Clemson, the Big 12 has a 1-loss Texas, and the Pac-12 has 1-loss Utah and Oregon (and... checks notes, Washington State). There is a good chance that we end up with fewer than 4 P5 champs with 1 loss or fewer.

Or, Boise could fall apart against BYU again, though it is at home this year. Computers put that as the biggest game with a trip to Laramie clocking in at #2. New Mexico is a joke and Colorado St and the MW-West (76% chance its 5-3 San Diego St) champ should be easy pickins on the Blue Turf.

Here are the chances each team finishes as the top G5 Champ:

1) 72.2% Boise St
2) 16.77% UCF
3) 10.36% Memphis
4) 0.26% Navy
5) 0.24% Western Michigan
6) 0.1% App St
7) 0.07% Troy

I like that the cup is half full! I have unfortunately grown accustomed to late-season tragedies. I could see us falling to Wyoming and probably BYU.
07-26-2020 12:00 AM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-25-2020 11:16 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(07-25-2020 10:32 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-25-2020 08:29 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.

Have you followed us in recent years? 8-0 is not an uncommon start. Losing 2 of the last 4 is also not uncommon.

This could be the Broncs' year. The Big Ten is down to 2 undefeated teams, the SEC also has 2 (plus 7-1 A&M), the ACC has undefeated Clemson, the Big 12 has a 1-loss Texas, and the Pac-12 has 1-loss Utah and Oregon (and... checks notes, Washington State). There is a good chance that we end up with fewer than 4 P5 champs with 1 loss or fewer.

Or, Boise could fall apart against BYU again, though it is at home this year. Computers put that as the biggest game with a trip to Laramie clocking in at #2. New Mexico is a joke and Colorado St and the MW-West (76% chance its 5-3 San Diego St) champ should be easy pickins on the Blue Turf.

Here are the chances each team finishes as the top G5 Champ:

1) 72.2% Boise St
2) 16.77% UCF
3) 10.36% Memphis
4) 0.26% Navy
5) 0.24% Western Michigan
6) 0.1% App St
7) 0.07% Troy

I'm right now assuming the top three are in some order Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Oklahoma is #25 with two losses including one to Texas in the RRR. Oregon has a loss but is #15. Auburn probably loses the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. Wisconsin probably loses the Big Ten Championship Game to Ohio State. I'd probably guess #4 comes down to a 13-0 MWC champ Boise State, a 11-1 Auburn who lost at Alabama but beat Texas A&M and LSU, and a 12-1 Wisconsin team who lost to Ohio State but beat Michigan. There would be a lot of pressure to put BSU in. Florida State currently being 3-5 isn't going to help Boise's resume. BYU's also 3-5. Should Wisconsin and/or Auburn pull upsets, Alabama is certainly going to get more at large consideration because they are Alabama and Ohio State because they are Ohio State and they would have beaten Penn State at Penn State and Oregon at Oregon. Oregon and Texas at this point seem to have a long hill to climb to get to #4 even if they run the table in their conferences.
07-26-2020 05:32 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-26-2020 05:32 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I'd probably guess #4 comes down to a 13-0 MWC champ Boise State, a 11-1 Auburn who lost at Alabama but beat Texas A&M and LSU, and a 12-1 Wisconsin team who lost to Ohio State but beat Michigan. There would be a lot of pressure to put BSU in. Florida State currently being 3-5 isn't going to help Boise's resume. BYU's also 3-5. Should Wisconsin and/or Auburn pull upsets, Alabama is certainly going to get more at large consideration because they are Alabama and Ohio State because they are Ohio State and they would have beaten Penn State at Penn State and Oregon at Oregon. Oregon and Texas at this point seem to have a long hill to climb to get to #4 even if they run the table in their conferences.

Here are the odds (well, the top half) for teams from each conference making the playoff, based on finish. Note that each entry is not directly comparable and that each season produces unique circumstances and comparison points.

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (62%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (53%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (32%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (38%)
95% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (18%)
83% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (74%)
62% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (43%)
57% 1-loss at large Big Ten (48%)
50% 1-loss at large SEC (95%)

So, an undefeated BSU does have the best shot at #4; a 1-loss Pac-12 team is next, followed by 1-loss at larges from the Big Ten and SEC. I'd expect a 1-loss Pac-12 champ to edgeout BSU based on a stronger CCG win (probably?). The computer committee does not take "G5/P5" into account, but if two teams are comparable in "deserving" a playoff spot, one that scores a better record AND a better eye-test will be ranked higher; right now Boise has both, but the Pac-12 champ has more room to make up lost ground.

Texas's uphill climb stems from the fact that they only have two 2-loss teams on their schedule and they'd have to deliver 3rd losses to both to run the table; and their lone loss was to a 2-(potentially 3-, 4-, or 5-)loss LSU. Like last year, the Pac-12 is hoping both Utah and Oregon scrounge to the championship with a single loss each. The conference still has UW, WSU, and USC with 2 or fewer losses, and so is in better position than the Big 12.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2020 08:04 AM by Crayton.)
07-26-2020 08:01 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
SEC Top 25 Losses:
W7: 31-50 // #10 Texas A*M (6-0) vs. #5 Auburn (6-0)
W7: 3-67 // #21 Miss St (4-1) vs. #1 Alabama (6-0)
W8: 28-31 // #8 LSU (6-1) vs. #29 Miss St (4-2)
W8: 28-39 // #12 South Carolina (5-1) vs. #13 Texas A*M (6-1)
W9: 13-35 // #6 Florida (6-1) vs. #16 Georgia (5-2)
W9: 14-41 // #22 Miss St (5-2) vs. #5 Auburn (7-0)
SEC-West standings after 9 weeks
#1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC) (338-121)
#3 Auburn (8-0, 5-0 SEC) (304-128)
#10 Texas A*M (7-1, 3-1 SEC) (270-198)
#21 LSU (6-2, 2-2 SEC) (252-148)
#26 Miss St (5-3, 2-3 SEC) (234-273)
#60 Ole Miss (3-5, 1-4 SEC) (208-240)
#107 Arkansas (1-7, 0-5 SEC) (148-262)
SEC-East
#19 South Carolina (6-2, 4-2 SEC) (244-147)
#16 Florida (6-2, 4-2 SEC) (310-135)
#8 Georgia (6-2, 3-2 SEC) (252-165)
#35 Missouri (5-3, 3-2 SEC) (238-192)
#43 Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC) (182-209)
#58 Kentucky (4-4, 1-4 SEC) (180-242)
#102 Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-5 SEC) (147-233)

Alabama and Auburn are the only two undefeated SEC teams and the only two with realistic playoff chances. They are on a collision course to meet in the season-ending Iron Bowl. The Tide are favored to take the division (77% to Auburn's 22%, with A&M managing 1%), and are nearly guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss. There is a 31% chance both make the playoff, though the Iron Bowl champion likely gets to stay closer, in New Orleans.

Georgia controls their destiny in the East but with 2 losses already (to the West-leading Auburn and Alabama) the margins are tight. The Bulldogs have a 43% chance of winning the division. South Carolina nearly has control too, needing #35 Missouri to drop a game to #26 MSU or #16 Florida (or, ha, #107 Arkansas). Georgia and South Carolina meet next week in Columbia.

The Florida Gators have the easiest conference schedule remaining and thus a distinct chance of winning the East, 33%. The Missouri Tigers have a 3% chance of going to Atlanta.

Overall Playoff Chances:
87% Alabama
40% Auburn
<1% Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU, Florida, South Carolina

If they win-out:
100% Alabama and Auburn
27% Texas A&M
7% Georgia (still to play #19 South Carolina)
<1% LSU, Florida, South Carolina

Of the top four SEC West teams, only A&M and Auburn have played each other, setting up a riveting final 4 weeks.
07-26-2020 01:18 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
Big Ten Top 25 Losses
W7: 24-31 // #6 Michigan (5-1) vs. #29 Minnesota (4-2)
W7: 14-36 // #14 Iowa (5-1) vs. #12 Penn State (4-1)
W8: 27-32 // #6 Penn State (5-1) vs. #2 Ohio St (6-0)
W8: 28-40 // #25 Indiana (5-1) vs. #39 Mich St (3-4)
W9: 21-30 // #21 Minnesota (6-2) vs. #31 Mich St (4-4)

Big Ten-East standings after 9 weeks
#2 Ohio St (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) (218-143)
#9 Michigan (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (248-119)
#12 Penn State (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (239-153)
#36 Indiana (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) (295-177)
#27 Mich St (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) (250-238)
#83 Maryland (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) (198-228)
#97 Rutgers (3-6, 1-5 Big Ten) (209-295)
Big Ten-West
#4 Wisconsin (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) (236-154)
#20 Iowa (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (203-202)
#29 Nebraska (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) (274-137)
#28 Minnesota (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) (249-183)
#48 Northwestern (4-4, 3-3 Big Ten) (210-261)
#42 Purdue (4-4, 2-3 Big Ten) (218-256)
#81 Illinois (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) (232-238)

Ohio State (96%) and Wisconsin (94%) are already near locks to clash in Indianapolis. They have playoff chances of 73% and 54% respectively and a 31% chance of going there together. While the Badgers and Buckeyes are guarantees for the playoff if they win the conference, even with an extra loss (well, 98% guaranteed), they're chances are not as high as runner ups. A 12-1 team who lost in Indianapolis has about a 57% chance of making the playoff.

Michigan makes up the remaining 4% of the East pie, needing to win out and hope Ohio State loses to Illinois, Maryland, or Indiana (fat chance). If they do go 10-2, the Wolverines have a slim, 10%, chance of making the playoff as an at-large, though that balloons to 69% if they get to play the following week and exact revenge on the Badgers (1% chance that plays out).

In the West, Iowa has a 5% chance of making the conference title game and Nebraska has a 1% chance. It is fun to note that Iowa (6-2, 3-2) has a non-zero chance of making the playoff, winning the conference 0.92% of the time and making the playoff in roughly 1/10 of those scenarios.
07-27-2020 03:58 PM
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C00G Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-25-2020 08:29 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.

I don’t think Boise St makes the CFP but we could see 2 or 3 G5 teams in the top 12. If Boise St and Memphis/UCF win out the rest of the season the AAC Champ jumps Boise St. If Memphis wins the AAC it could be Memphis in the CFP and Boise St in the NY6. If UCF wins the AAC it could be UCF, Boise St, and Memphis in the NY6.

#6 Boise St still has
#55 BYU
@ #127 New Mexico
#63 Wyoming
@ #99 Colorado St
#85 San Diego St (MW Championship Game)

#7 Memphis still has
#96 USF
@ #31 Navy
FCS UT Martin
@ #106 Tulane
#11 UCF (AAC Championship Game)

#11 UCF still has
FCS Florida A&M
#54 Temple
#76 Cincinnati
@ #96 USF
@ #7 Memphis (AAC Championship Game)

AAC Championship Game should be a top 10 matchup. It’s going to be fun to see how this plays out!
07-28-2020 12:47 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
Dang. My Pirates are getting their a**es kicked this fake season.

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07-28-2020 12:53 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
Who did UCF and Memphis lose to?
07-28-2020 01:28 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
I think North Carolina's disappointing performance puts Mack Brown solidly on the hot seat. Clearly he's not getting the most out of his talent this year.
07-28-2020 05:16 PM
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C00G Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-28-2020 01:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Who did UCF and Memphis lose to?

Memphis lost to Houston, UCF lost to Memphis.
07-28-2020 06:02 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
Top 25 Losses for the remaining Power Six:
W7: 21-24 // #7 Utah (6-0) vs. #30 Washington (3-2)
W7: 23-24 // #8 Notre Dame (5-1) vs. #43 Pittsburgh (4-1)
W7: 10-22 // #11 UCF (5-0) vs. #22 Memphis (4-1)
W8: 16-21 // #21 Houston (5-1) vs. #46 Navy (4-2)
W9: 17-22 // #13 Oklahoma (6-1) vs. #57 TCU (4-3)

The hopes for undefeated seasons were dashed in week 7 for both Utah and UCF. Only Clemson remains. The Tigers have the surest path to the playoff among these four conferences. Win out and they are in. They're biggest game is against Notre Dame, who has lost two games to Wisconsin and Pittsburgh by a combined 8 points. Should they lose, the outlook is not good. The computer gives the Tigers only a 3% chance of making the playoff at 12-1. Notre Dame has <1% playoff chances, even if they win out.

Clemson has already won 7 conference games and a spot in the ACC Championship. In the Coastal division, things are more interesting. Miami (7-1, 4-0) has an 82% chance of making the Championship, but all 4 remaining games are in-conference, including Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-1) and rival Florida State (3-5, 2-3). The Hokies have a 15% chance of getting to Charlotte while the Panthers (6-2, 2-2) have a 2% chance and the Cavaliers (5-3, 2-2) have a 1% chance. Next week's game between VT and Miami will be the primary determinant.

The Pac-12 has a trio of teams with 1 loss (Utah, Oregon, WSU), each grabbing slightly better than a 60% chance of making the playoff if they win out. USC, surprisingly, has a 28% chance of making the playoff if they win out; that loss against undefeated Alabama (42-17 as it was) doesn't look as bad as most losses across the league. Washington is a little further down, making the playoff 6% of the time they go 11-2.

Texas (7-1) is the lone Big 12 team with fewer than 2 losses and the lone Big 12 team with playoff hopes. While the Longhorns are 98% locks for the CCG, the Sooners (6-2, 3-2) too are sitting at 80% and a strong chance to win the conference a 6th year in a row, though the Longhorns are now favored. OK State (10%), Iowa State, and West Virginia, all still have a shot at Arlington.

Memphis and UCF are neck-and-neck for the American championship and boast 15% and 8% chances, respectively, of making the playoff should they win out. There is a monkey wrench in this scenario. Navy is currently undefeated in conference play and does not play UCF this year. Should the three tie at 7-1, Memphis will get into the CCG by virtue of its sweep and UCF by virtue of its higher ranking (Navy lost to Notre Dame and Air Force), but the two playoff hopefuls will have little room for a loss so long as the Midshipmen keep to form. UCF (89%), Memphis (73%), and Navy (38%) are the only American teams with >1% of making the Championship Game.
07-28-2020 11:08 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-28-2020 12:47 PM)C00G Wrote:  
(07-25-2020 08:29 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Could be a magical year for a special fan in Russelville, AR if Boise St makes the CFP.

I don’t think Boise St makes the CFP but we could see 2 or 3 G5 teams in the top 12. If Boise St and Memphis/UCF win out the rest of the season the AAC Champ jumps Boise St. If Memphis wins the AAC it could be Memphis in the CFP and Boise St in the NY6. If UCF wins the AAC it could be UCF, Boise St, and Memphis in the NY6.

AAC Championship Game should be a top 10 matchup. It’s going to be fun to see how this plays out!

I like your take on 2 or 3 G5 teams making the NY6. I plan on hiding the computer's ranking for the top 10 or so teams, going forward, to allow us to elect who we think should be paired in postseason play.

A factor obscured by simple standings is the margins of victory, though they can be deduced. Since the first week, the closest a team has gotten to beating Boise was Florida State, who the Broncs' defeated 41-27. Since then, Boise has won big:
46-21 vs. Marshall
43-10 vs. San Jose St
41-17 vs. Utah State
71-14 vs. Hawaii
75-7 vs. UNLV (wut!?)
next up BYU

Sure, the competition is not as great as the American, but the level of dominance combined with a G00seegg in the loss column will be difficult (but not impossible) for UCF/Memphis to overcome. Here are the chances each team has of being the Top G5 Champ, should they win out:
94% Boise State
34% Memphis
29% UCF
10% Navy (that Army game makes calculations tricky if BSU has 1 loss)
<1% Western Michigan, App St, Navy

Overall Chances: (sum to 100%)
72% Boise St
17% UCF
10% Memphis
<1% Navy, Western Michigan, App St, Troy
07-28-2020 11:34 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-28-2020 12:53 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Dang. My Pirates are getting their a**es kicked this fake season.

[Image: images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTS6apX5UyQyeunbaaTC...p;usqp=CAU]

Sometimes you just have a bad year. Here are the game-by-game results thus far:
L 31-32 Marshall
L 17-32 South Carolina
W 24-21 FCS
L 7-68 UCF (ouch)
L 17-28 Georgia State (can't lose those)
L 17-35 USF
L 23-28 Navy (respectable?)
L 7-35 Tulsa
next up Tulane

(07-28-2020 05:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think North Carolina's disappointing performance puts Mack Brown solidly on the hot seat. Clearly he's not getting the most out of his talent this year.

Yep, expected more of him this year. Maybe once his recruits are in their third year...

L 17-45 UCF (not a good omen)
L 3-45 Auburn (no pride)
W 32-17 FCS (almost unexpected)
L 23-26 Georgia Tech (Jackets followed it up with a win over VT)
L 17-33 Virginia (it's a bad year)
L 24-39 Virginia Tech (no comment)
W 41-28 Duke (ya, but the wheels fell off in Durham too)
L 28-31 Miami (that could have been the turning point)
next up UConn (dear God...)

Still... he's got a 2.81% chance of going undefeated and making a bowl two years running. Pittsburgh is really the only miracle needed.
07-28-2020 11:46 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
If these rankings were final:
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Wisconsin
Rose: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Auburn
Orange: #5 Clemson vs. #8 Georgia
Fiesta: #6 Boise St vs. #14 Utah
Cotton: #10 Texas A&M vs. #13 Texas
Peach: #7 Memphis vs. #9 Michigan

I think I will hide the computer's rankings next Saturday, so we have more room to speculate.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2020 11:56 PM by Crayton.)
07-28-2020 11:55 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
(07-28-2020 11:46 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(07-28-2020 12:53 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Dang. My Pirates are getting their a**es kicked this fake season.

[Image: images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTS6apX5UyQyeunbaaTC...p;usqp=CAU]

Sometimes you just have a bad year. Here are the game-by-game results thus far:
L 31-32 Marshall
L 17-32 South Carolina
W 24-21 FCS
L 7-68 UCF (ouch)
L 17-28 Georgia State (can't lose those)
L 17-35 USF
L 23-28 Navy (respectable?)
L 7-35 Tulsa
next up Tulane

Does Marshall at least still have a QB on their roster in this universe? Please tell me they didn't beat us at home with the wildcat.

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07-29-2020 07:45 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
The SEC will be hopping these next three weeks with 5 games featuring two Top 25 teams. Outside the SEC, there will be only 3 such games before we enter rivalry week. This Saturday, I'll withhold the computer's rankings for any teams with 0 or 1 loss or with 2 losses and a chance to win a P5 conference (generally, any teams in playoff position).

Week 10:
#1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0) @ #21 LSU (6-2, 2-2)
#5 Clemson (8-0, 7-0) @ #17 Notre Dame (6-2)
#8 Georgia (6-2, 4-2) @ #19 South Carolina (6-2, 4-2)
#24 Washington (6-2, 4-1) @ #18 USC (6-2, 5-1)
Week 11:
#19 South Carolina (6-2, 4-2) @ #21 LSU (6-2, 2-2)
#21 Navy (6-2, 5-0) @ #7 Memphis (7-1, 4-1)
Week 12:
#10 Texas A&M (7-1, 3-1) @ #1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0)
#21 LSU (6-2, 2-2) @ #3 Auburn (8-0, 5-0)

Any bets on the outcomes of these 8 games?
07-30-2020 08:36 PM
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