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The Fischer Effect
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mrjoolius Online
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Post: #1
The Fischer Effect
Nice analytical deep dive with the guys from the NoBidNation blog doing in depth stat comparisons between the 18-19 and 19-20 squads. Parts 1 and 2 are up.

http://nobidnation.com/2020/06/20/data-f...rt-1-of-3/

http://nobidnation.com/2020/07/21/data-f...ct-part-2/
07-21-2020 04:55 AM
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Tribe32 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The Fischer Effect
Two things. Rebounds increased because we had a 7 foot power forward in the lineup with Knight. We have no clue what the team stats would have been like with the five kids who transferred or didn't enroll. I hope we will be able to compare Fischer year 1 with Fischer year 2.....fingers crossed
07-21-2020 06:20 AM
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LeadBolt Online
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RE: The Fischer Effect
Good Analysis, Thanks! I was glad to see the increase in rebounding. As 32 says next year will prove out whether it was a change in scheme or adding a 7' PF to the line-up. I was disappointed in the fall off of assists.

Overall pleased with the defensive improvement, the offense not so much. This appears to primarily be the difference in focus by each coach at this point.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2020 08:10 AM by LeadBolt.)
07-21-2020 08:10 AM
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NC Tribe Offline
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Post: #4
RE: The Fischer Effect
(07-21-2020 08:10 AM)LeadBolt Wrote:  Good Analysis, Thanks! I was glad to see the increase in rebounding. As 32 says next year will prove out whether it was a change in scheme or adding a 7' PF to the line-up. I was disappointed in the fall off of assists.

Overall pleased with the defensive improvement, the offense not so much. This appears to primarily be the difference in focus by each coach at this point.

Eligibility expired for the single season assist leader in addition to a slower pace on offense and a little less matador defense results in fewer possessions and less opportunity for assists.

It will take a few seasons to see if these changes were mostly personnel related or result of change in philosophy. It was most likely a little of both.

Kind of a chicken and egg thing, once you recruit for a different scheme it winds up being a combo of the scheme and the personnel that gives the change in results.

I liked Tony's system, the only thing it didn't do was win a CAA tournament.

I will only like Dane's system better if it delivers a CAA tourney championship. If it doesn't Huge will replace him, unless she is gone already.
07-21-2020 08:47 AM
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tribeinexile Online
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Post: #5
RE: The Fischer Effect
I also appreciate the analysis. I am sure even the authors would acknowledge that there are as yet insufficient data points for concrete conclusions so hopefully they will replicate the work as seasons (data points) accumulate.

One philosophical question. Suppose there is a “right” way to play the game. Let’s say, focus on defense and rebounding. Run the offense to maximize one-on-one opportunities for your best players. Further suppose that if two teams each play that way the better team wins.

What do you do if you are the lesser talented team? Play the right way and lose? Hit the recruiting trail until you get better players?

I’m pretty serious about this because MBB matters very dearly to me and I don’t want to be told I have to wait until we out “athlete” our competitors.
07-21-2020 09:01 AM
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Touchdown Green and Gold Offline
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Post: #6
RE: The Fischer Effect
(07-21-2020 08:47 AM)NC Tribe Wrote:  
(07-21-2020 08:10 AM)LeadBolt Wrote:  Good Analysis, Thanks! I was glad to see the increase in rebounding. As 32 says next year will prove out whether it was a change in scheme or adding a 7' PF to the line-up. I was disappointed in the fall off of assists.

Overall pleased with the defensive improvement, the offense not so much. This appears to primarily be the difference in focus by each coach at this point.

Eligibility expired for the single season assist leader in addition to a slower pace on offense and a little less matador defense results in fewer possessions and less opportunity for assists.

It will take a few seasons to see if these changes were mostly personnel related or result of change in philosophy. It was most likely a little of both.

Kind of a chicken and egg thing, once you recruit for a different scheme it winds up being a combo of the scheme and the personnel that gives the change in results.

I liked Tony's system, the only thing it didn't do was win a CAA tournament.

I will only like Dane's system better if it delivers a CAA tourney championship. If it doesn't Huge will replace him, unless she is gone already.
Cohn wasn’t our pt guard in Shaver’s last season.
07-21-2020 01:27 PM
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WMInTheBurg Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The Fischer Effect
(07-21-2020 09:01 AM)tribeinexile Wrote:  What do you do if you are the lesser talented team? Play the right way and lose? Hit the recruiting trail until you get better players?

This is a personal soapbox issue for me. IMO, the best coaches don't just coach their team, they coach against the other team. Belicheck and Popovich are perfect examples. In both cases, the coaches will go away from their greatest strengths if they see a greater weakness in the opponent that can be exploited. And you'll never see the Patriots stop running a play until the opponent stops it. It's something many of us remember about the Tribe football offense from years before, where it seemed like the first half was about testing the defense and the second half was about exploiting the weaknesses you found in the first half.

Coach Shaver was here for so long and brought the program up to the highest level it's ever been, so there's really nobody else you can reasonably talk about without going back almost before the 3 point line. Coach Shaver was good at designing a scheme to use our strengths, but not good at adapting that scheme on the fly. It's a problem that most coaches have, because most prefer to practice their own scheme until it's "perfect". "No plan survives contact with the enemy", however, and if the other team knows what you're going to do you're at a disadvantage.

Back to your question, IMO you try something ridiculous. If you're the less talented team, you have to try to do something the other team won't expect in order to find an advantage. This is what sets great coaches apart from good coaches.
07-21-2020 08:11 PM
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Tribal Online
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Post: #8
The Fischer Effect
IMO, Fischer gets 3 full recruiting classes before a proper evaluation. He inherited a NBA player at the height of his college career, a 7 footer from a Big 10 squad, and a few depth players. He brought in serviceable grad transfers and got a lot out of Loewe. 1 and done in the CAAT was a massive failure after an outstanding regular season but I'm not mad at him for that.

My big concern (pun intended) is he hasn't secured a single big player. Unfortunately, COVID-19 probably put a damper on finding one over the past 5 months.

In short, if we play, I expect very little. Not because I am a Shaver guy, but because our best box player was a second thought on our roster last season.

I do like Dane, though. I bet he's a great neighbor.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk
07-21-2020 09:32 PM
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NoBidNation Offline
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Post: #9
RE: The Fischer Effect
Hey y'all, maybe everybody needs a little change of pace from talking about how Tribe Athletics is falling apart, or coming back together after falling apart... part three (and the final installment) of The Fischer Effect is up now!

We look at how much measurable talent/experience is coming back (well, not very much) before talking about some of the very noticeable jumps that Luke Loewe and Thornton Scott made last year working with Dane. Then, how Dane stacks up to coaches in the CAA based on his first season.

A little teaser: Dane had a really great season last year, and if we want W&M to stick around the top of the CAA this year, he's going to have to mirror it, or maybe surpass it.

http://nobidnation.com/2020/10/08/data-f...rt-3-of-3/
10-08-2020 03:54 PM
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zablenoise Offline
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RE: The Fischer Effect
Ok you guys need to explain your Thornton Scott love. Were one of you roommates with him or something or are the rest of the Tribe fans in my life (and me) missing something?

Also I meant to ask if you know how Torvik's talent rating accounts for ZM coming back?
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2020 06:43 PM by zablenoise.)
10-08-2020 06:41 PM
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WillaMary08 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: The Fischer Effect
I don’t know how much it affects the rating but it looks like Torvik forgot Mehkel Harvey.

https://barttorvik.com/rosters21.php?sor...=99&pyax=1
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2020 06:53 PM by WillaMary08.)
10-08-2020 06:53 PM
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NoBidNation Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The Fischer Effect
(10-08-2020 06:53 PM)WillaMary08 Wrote:  I don’t know how much it affects the rating but it looks like Torvik forgot Mehkel Harvey.

https://barttorvik.com/rosters21.php?sor...=99&pyax=1

Yeah, not sure if Mehkel played enough last year to make it? He's at 3.8 mpg, and 38 total minutes on the year.

Although Thatcher only played 34 total minutes for 4 mpg. Who knows. Don't think it would have made much of a dent in the rating haha.
10-08-2020 08:48 PM
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NoBidNation Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The Fischer Effect
(10-08-2020 06:41 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  Ok you guys need to explain your Thornton Scott love. Were one of you roommates with him or something or are the rest of the Tribe fans in my life (and me) missing something?

Also I meant to ask if you know how Torvik's talent rating accounts for ZM coming back?

Last things first -- doesn't look like ZM's on Towson's roster on Torvik. So they're probably subject to get bumped up in those talent ratings.

Now, re: Thornton... I (Brendan) did not write the post but the author (John) and I probably share the same sort of feeling about Thornton, which is, when he's healthy, he provides something to the W&M offense that is lacking when he's not on the floor/injured.

Qualitatively: I tend to think that Thornton was W&M's best passer last season. He's a relatively streaky shooter (who knows how much that has to do with his injury history) but when he's hitting, he forces the defense to come out to 24, 25 feet from the basket, opening lanes for drivers/cutters and, crucially last year, giving bigs time to work. His biggest issues are still turnovers and defense, but he cut significantly down on turnovers last year, and he's no Connor Burchfield on defense, though he's obviously not good.

Quantitatively: He led W&M in AST% (basically the percent of teammate field goals that he assisted on) and only turned the ball over a little more than Bryce, 26.4 times per 100 possessions compared to 23 for Bryce. He only shot 32.9% from three but was 16-61 during conference play, when he was mostly playing banged up.

TL;DR: he's vastly underappreciated by W&M fans for what he brings to the table, probably because he attempts a lot of high-risk plays (tough, sometimes stupid passes, long threes) that, by definition, don't work out sometimes, and his defense leaves somethings to be desired. But he brings a skillset that W&M lacks (creativity, defense-spreading, creating his own shot) and, pending health, will be important again for the Tribe in 2020-21.
10-08-2020 09:12 PM
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