(07-21-2020 07:08 PM)screaminblazer Wrote: (07-21-2020 03:17 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: a lot higher than 0.005%....
yes that number is higher, but that number is not the total population mortality rate, it is the infection mortality rate. It appears (although I have yet to see peer reviewed articles on this topic) that the expected population infection rate is thought to be less than 20% (flu is 3-11% in the US for comparison). If 20% of global population eventually were infected, and the infection fatality rate was .65%, then the population mortality rate would be: .13% or 10 million global deaths. For the US that would be 487 thousand deaths.
Now, since the infection mortality rate for those under 75 is very low (.05%), and the normal mortality rate of over 75 year olds is already very high (11%), then an adjustment would be made to change attribution of the 487 thousand US deaths. Remember that 56% of covid deaths are in those over 75. 2.2 million over age 75 pass from "normal" causes every year (~22.5M in that age cohort). I think it is fair to assume that half of the >75 who die from Covid would have died of another cause anyway in a given year. Adjusting the 487k covid deaths down to 350k backs into a population mortality rate of .09%.
In other words, a population survival rate of 99.91% or approaching the frenchy multiplier :). Speaking of frenchy and mortality risks/rate, I am fairly sure that you have a higher risk of mortality driving with Luc to a Florida state v UAB football game than you do catching and passing from Covid :)
i am more dangerous on my bicycle ,,,,i got 2 icu visit from crash :)
Screaming blazer I like your number and your explanation
,,,i am not saying is not dangerous and we dont need to protect from it ,,,but one way or another everyone in the world will get it
f you are old and you are in real bad shape dont get it ,,,,,wearing a cloth mask won t do it despite the new expert say
fyi news people and cdc
need to give you the worst scenario that way most people will protect the vulnerable people (over 75 ,,real immunosupress people aka transplant , aids )
People need to stop watching news and start reading medical article ,,,not only the conclusion ..the full article and you will see