https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/US...death-rate

Interestingly, deaths in the US per 1,000 people hit a low in 2008 and have risen every year since.... especially since 2013.

Also interestingly, despite 150,000+ 'excess' deaths due to covid, the rate of increase for 2020 is identical to 2019 and below 2014-2018.

This is the first time I've looked for or at this data, and this is the first source I've found which could be flawed (I would use CDC data, but it's dated by up to 18 months)

When presenting data, we're supposed to state our own opinions so in the interest of disclosure, I'll do so... Assuming the data is reliable...

ACA passed in 2009..... was in full effect (including the market's reaction to it) by 2013

Covid is bad, but it doesn't seem to be having a meaningful impact on overall mortality... Of course this is in no small part due to some extraordinary measures that we've taken, but it does seem that a 'balanced' approach to the issue is warranted.

Could current figures during the time of COVID be comparable to 2019 solely because the majority of us has been in lockdown for the better part of 4 months?

(07-15-2020 11:57 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/US...death-rate

Interestingly, deaths in the US per 1,000 people hit a low in 2008 and have risen every year since.... especially since 2013.

Also interestingly, despite 150,000+ 'excess' deaths due to covid, the rate of increase for 2020 is identical to 2019 and below 2014-2018.

This is the first time I've looked for or at this data, and this is the first source I've found which could be flawed (I would use CDC data, but it's dated by up to 18 months)

When presenting data, we're supposed to state our own opinions so in the interest of disclosure, I'll do so... Assuming the data is reliable...

ACA passed in 2009..... was in full effect (including the market's reaction to it) by 2013

Covid is bad, but it doesn't seem to be having a meaningful impact on overall mortality... Of course this is in no small part due to some extraordinary measures that we've taken, but it does seem that a 'balanced' approach to the issue is warranted.

Could social distancing and greater hygiene practices may also have reduced the normal flu deaths this year..making the number of deaths similar?

Hard to know how many more deaths would've happened if we didn't lock down.

The increase in deaths since 2008 is largely due to drug overdoses.

The shut down wiped out a lot of potential deaths by traffic accidents I would imagine. That being said I have to wonder how many more people have died as the result of suicide, domestic violence, alcohol poisoning/drug overdose as a result of the shelters-in-place and depression.

(07-15-2020 12:23 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The increase in deaths since 2008 is largely due to drug overdoses.

The real pandemic in this country. And our overlords Big Pharma will never be held accountable.

Most likely it's the deaths starting climbing since 2008 due to a larger percentage of our population getting older. Once the majority of the boomer generation is dead the rate will fall while GenX becomes the old generation. GenX is small compared to the boomers and the millenials, so... This assumes we don't get the eureka type medical treatments to drastically reduce deaths to large scale causes - like a magic cure to prevent heart disease for example.

Fo and Tom... Please note my comment....
Of course this is in no small part due to some extraordinary measures that we've taken

And while Plank is correct that it's hard to know... the UN DOES estimate these things, and we seem to be in line with 2019 (and previous years) and their projection for 2021.

(07-15-2020 12:28 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Most likely it's the deaths starting climbing since 2008 due to a larger percentage of our population getting older.

So we were getting younger until 2008 (we were declining prior to then) and then suddenly in 2009 we started getting older?

Again, not the sole source and it's not directly on point.... but
https://www.statista.com/statistics/2414...opulation/

It seems we've been getting older since the 1970's

Here's another source with a similar trend...
https://www.livestories.com/statistics/u...mographics

You guys have presented some options/opinions, but I'm not easily finding any facts to support your conclusions.

(07-15-2020 12:23 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The increase in deaths since 2008 is largely due to drug overdoses.

The shut down wiped out a lot of potential deaths by traffic accidents I would imagine. That being said I have to wonder how many more people have died as the result of suicide, domestic violence, alcohol poisoning/drug overdose as a result of the shelters-in-place and depression.

What happened/changed in 2008? Availability of prescriptions to a previously uninsured population? Would be very interested in seeing that data if it exists anywhere... certainly possible... Used to self-medicate with illegal drugs, now getting a prescription?

I agree that the shut-down may have changed the demographics... i.e. more older people are dying from covid and 30-50yr olds who previously would have died in an accident on the way to work, or 20-40 yr olds driving home drunk from the bar are living... let's look at suicide data... but we can't... because CDC data for 2020 is for suicides in 2018.

Are you aware of any more recent data? Serious question... this is an honest conversation... I mentioned those issues merely to try and start a conversation... I honestly don't know the causes... but it does seem odd, the specific timing of the shift in median age, and the 'net' impact of covid.

(07-15-2020 12:49 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Fo and Tom... Please note my comment....
Of course this is in no small part due to some extraordinary measures that we've taken

And while Plank is correct that it's hard to know... the UN DOES estimate these things, and we seem to be in line with 2019 (and previous years) and their projection for 2021.

(07-15-2020 12:28 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Most likely it's the deaths starting climbing since 2008 due to a larger percentage of our population getting older.

So we were getting younger until 2008 (we were declining prior to then) and then suddenly in 2009 we started getting older?

Again, not the sole source and it's not directly on point.... but
https://www.statista.com/statistics/2414...opulation/

It seems we've been getting older since the 1970's

Here's another source with a similar trend...
https://www.livestories.com/statistics/u...mographics

You guys have presented some options/opinions, but I'm not easily finding any facts to support your conclusions.

We're seeing the boomer generation going into retirement, and as that proceeds the death rate will increase. Not all of the boomers are going to live into their 90s and then die - a number of them will die younger post retirement. I'm sure it doesn't explain all of it, but it will be explaining more of it as time marches forward.

Also, according to the chart and assuming 300 million people in the country, the death rates are 2.4 million (at 8 per 1000) to 2.7 million (at 9 per 1000).

(07-15-2020 12:58 PM)miko33 Wrote:  We're seeing the boomer generation going into retirement, and as that proceeds the death rate will increase. Not all of the boomers are going to live into their 90s and then die - a number of them will die younger post retirement. I'm sure it doesn't explain all of it, but it will be explaining more of it as time marches forward.

Also, according to the chart and assuming 300 million people in the country, the death rates are 2.4 million (at 8 per 1000) to 2.7 million (at 9 per 1000).

Death rates per 1000 people are included.... they have been fairly steady within a range.

I understand your anecdotal suggestion, but can you demonstrate any of it?

Based on your summary and considering the data, we should see a marked change in the number of people over say 60 years old... where that number was declining until 2008 and then increased since then. I don't have detailed data from 2000-2010, but the data I DO have shows a significant increase from 2000-2010. If what you suggest is true, that implies that between 2000 and 2008, we had a relatively minor decrease, and then from 2008-2010, we had a MASSIVE increase than then leveled off to a steady increase every year from 2010-2020.

That's a really narrow window for a major demographic shift. Can you support your belief with any data?

(07-15-2020 12:23 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Could social distancing and greater hygiene practices may also have reduced the normal flu deaths this year..making the number of deaths similar?

My suspicion is that some flu deaths might have been counted as covid deaths, especially those that never went to the hospital.

What happened was Obama, not Obamacare, with help from drugs.

His defeatism and anti-Americanism and Carterish malaise contributed to a nationwide malaise.

Obama's legacy is that for the first time in American history other than war or the 1919 pandemic, life expectancy declined. It fell during his last two years. It is not due to the population aging. Its due to younger/middle aged people dying from drugs, particularly painkillers and suicide. The vast non-college degreed middle class had its job prospects destroyed by exporting them abroad and was dumped on at every opportunity by the establishment.

The numbers you have are exactly why someone like Donald Trump became our president.

(07-15-2020 01:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 12:58 PM)miko33 Wrote:  We're seeing the boomer generation going into retirement, and as that proceeds the death rate will increase. Not all of the boomers are going to live into their 90s and then die - a number of them will die younger post retirement. I'm sure it doesn't explain all of it, but it will be explaining more of it as time marches forward.

Also, according to the chart and assuming 300 million people in the country, the death rates are 2.4 million (at 8 per 1000) to 2.7 million (at 9 per 1000).

Death rates per 1000 people are included.... they have been fairly steady within a range.

I understand your anecdotal suggestion, but can you demonstrate any of it?

Based on your summary and considering the data, we should see a marked change in the number of people over say 60 years old... where that number was declining until 2008 and then increased since then. I don't have detailed data from 2000-2010, but the data I DO have shows a significant increase from 2000-2010. If what you suggest is true, that implies that between 2000 and 2008, we had a relatively minor decrease, and then from 2008-2010, we had a MASSIVE increase than then leveled off to a steady increase every year from 2010-2020.

That's a really narrow window for a major demographic shift. Can you support your belief with any data?

I was giving my opinion on what I thought was happening during that time period from your link. TBH, I'm not THAT invested in it to do a data dive to support my claim. Maybe I'll do it this evening but probably not.

I cannot support my assertion at this time.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/...increased.

"'There's something terribly wrong': Why more Americans are dying in middle age
December 2, 2019

Americans for decades had seen improvements in average life expectancy, but the trend reversed in 2014—with more U.S. residents dying at middle age from drug overdoses, diseases, obesity, suicide, and dozens of other causes, according to a study published Tuesday in JAMA...."

(07-15-2020 01:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/...increased.

"'There's something terribly wrong': Why more Americans are dying in middle age
December 2, 2019

Americans for decades had seen improvements in average life expectancy, but the trend reversed in 2014—with more U.S. residents dying at middle age from drug overdoses, diseases, obesity, suicide, and dozens of other causes, according to a study published Tuesday in JAMA...."

Interesting. Obesity could definitely be a factor as well as the opiod epidemic already mentioned. You could probably link this to the decline in manufacturing jobs resulting people developing unhealthy coping mechanisms. Also specific to obesity, perhaps more people eating out at unhealthy restaurants? IDK.

(07-15-2020 01:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/...increased.

"'There's something terribly wrong': Why more Americans are dying in middle age
December 2, 2019

Americans for decades had seen improvements in average life expectancy, but the trend reversed in 2014—with more U.S. residents dying at middle age from drug overdoses, diseases, obesity, suicide, and dozens of other causes, according to a study published Tuesday in JAMA...."

here's a clue.........socialized 'murica with open borders...

#thankyouGlobalization

(07-15-2020 01:23 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 01:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 12:58 PM)miko33 Wrote:  We're seeing the boomer generation going into retirement, and as that proceeds the death rate will increase. Not all of the boomers are going to live into their 90s and then die - a number of them will die younger post retirement. I'm sure it doesn't explain all of it, but it will be explaining more of it as time marches forward.

Also, according to the chart and assuming 300 million people in the country, the death rates are 2.4 million (at 8 per 1000) to 2.7 million (at 9 per 1000).

Death rates per 1000 people are included.... they have been fairly steady within a range.

I understand your anecdotal suggestion, but can you demonstrate any of it?

Based on your summary and considering the data, we should see a marked change in the number of people over say 60 years old... where that number was declining until 2008 and then increased since then. I don't have detailed data from 2000-2010, but the data I DO have shows a significant increase from 2000-2010. If what you suggest is true, that implies that between 2000 and 2008, we had a relatively minor decrease, and then from 2008-2010, we had a MASSIVE increase than then leveled off to a steady increase every year from 2010-2020.

That's a really narrow window for a major demographic shift. Can you support your belief with any data?

I was giving my opinion on what I thought was happening during that time period from your link. TBH, I'm not THAT invested in it to do a data dive to support my claim. Maybe I'll do it this evening but probably not.

I cannot support my assertion at this time.

Thanks... wasn't intended to shut you down... I'm looking into this for other reasons, and want to know if there is good data out there. You don't have to have support for opinions... I'm just trying to go deeper than that. What I'm seeing from 2008 is the exact opposite of what we should have seen... like the polar opposite. I'm not surprised by that, but i want to try and figure out 'why'.

(07-15-2020 05:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 01:23 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 01:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 12:58 PM)miko33 Wrote:  We're seeing the boomer generation going into retirement, and as that proceeds the death rate will increase. Not all of the boomers are going to live into their 90s and then die - a number of them will die younger post retirement. I'm sure it doesn't explain all of it, but it will be explaining more of it as time marches forward.

Also, according to the chart and assuming 300 million people in the country, the death rates are 2.4 million (at 8 per 1000) to 2.7 million (at 9 per 1000).

Death rates per 1000 people are included.... they have been fairly steady within a range.

I understand your anecdotal suggestion, but can you demonstrate any of it?

Based on your summary and considering the data, we should see a marked change in the number of people over say 60 years old... where that number was declining until 2008 and then increased since then. I don't have detailed data from 2000-2010, but the data I DO have shows a significant increase from 2000-2010. If what you suggest is true, that implies that between 2000 and 2008, we had a relatively minor decrease, and then from 2008-2010, we had a MASSIVE increase than then leveled off to a steady increase every year from 2010-2020.

That's a really narrow window for a major demographic shift. Can you support your belief with any data?

I was giving my opinion on what I thought was happening during that time period from your link. TBH, I'm not THAT invested in it to do a data dive to support my claim. Maybe I'll do it this evening but probably not.

I cannot support my assertion at this time.

Thanks... wasn't intended to shut you down... I'm looking into this for other reasons, and want to know if there is good data out there. You don't have to have support for opinions... I'm just trying to go deeper than that. What I'm seeing from 2008 is the exact opposite of what we should have seen... like the polar opposite. I'm not surprised by that, but i want to try and figure out 'why'.

It's hard to read tone on a message board; however, I read your posts as being inquisitive vs combative so all good.

IMHO, delving deeper into the rising obesity rates would probably be a good place to start. Only other thing I can think of would be an unusually high mortality rate among illegal immigrants coming into the U.S. where a death would be counted but the increase in the illegal population would not be as well defined.

(07-15-2020 01:22 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 12:23 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Could social distancing and greater hygiene practices may also have reduced the normal flu deaths this year..making the number of deaths similar?

My suspicion is that some flu deaths might have been counted as covid deaths, especially those that never went to the hospital.

Its pretty clear that early on there were lots of misclassifications...especially in NYC where the deaths were coming by dozens per hour.