How the 65 or so schools might be grouped:

Think of it this way. By 2024 what would the current conferences pay:

SEC 67-72 million

Big 64-70 million

Big 12 40-42 million

ACC 32-34 million

PAC 32-34 million

Let's say that for the sake of argument we do indeed move to 4 conferences but not with set numbers.

If ESPN truly desires Texas the SEC becomes the easiest move for them. Texas gets a deserved payout and ESPN doesn't have to overpay for the rest. The same could be said of Oklahoma whether they choose the SEC or the Big 10.

Notre Dame wants to remain independent so they wait to see their options.

The ideal move for the Big 10 would be Stanford, U.S.C., Washington, Oregon, and Colorado. The academics fit and the brand power of 5 of those is strong enough to merit the Big 10 money. Colorado is the exception but they provide the bridge and a strong market and solid academics. Perhaps Kansas makes the 6 if Notre Dame says no. But with Stanford and U.S.C. and much more money perhaps Notre Dame says yes, which is the assumption I'll make.

Would Clemson and Florida State be worth the money the networks would pay to the SEC? Against the lineup being provided yes.

So the SEC is done at 18 adding Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Clemson.
The Big 10 is done at 20 adding Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington and Notre Dame.

A new PAC is formed Total Members 16 (Pay Range 32-34 million):
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $512,000,000 to $544,000,000

The ACC reforms: Total Members 14 (Pay Range 32-34 million)
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $448,000,000 to $476,000,000

SEC: Total Members 18 (Pay Range 67-72 million)
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, South Carolina
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $1,206,000,000 to $1,296,000,000


Big 10 Total Members 20 (Pay Ranger: 64-70 million)
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $1,280,000,000 to $1,400,000,000


Total Cost per Year to Networks: $3,446,000,000 to $3,716,000,000


Is the cost of the 6 schools added to the Big 10 worth it? Absolutely. The markets added are among some of the largest and the branding is strong. Many more eyeballs are added for relatively little considering the potential advertising revenue and how the money might rejuvenate some of those West Coast programs, plus Notre Dame.

Are the 4 added to the SEC worth the cost? Absolutely. The number of annual must see games will be incredible.

The cost of maintaining the PAC and ACC doesn't really change much above natural escalation. The basketball first programs don't cost ESPN or FOX more. The football values are relative to their draw and competitive strength.

What about Cincinnati, Brigham Young & Houston? For the markets they deliver and their level of competition these all are worth the promotion.

So the New Upper Tier has 4 conferences consisting of 68 schools:

An 8 school playoff should result with the 4 champions being auto qualifiers and everyone else trying to grab 1 of 4 at large slots.

I know this is a bit odd but segregation by worth in a world where Networks set the price of admission seems somewhat reasonable as long as the main tenets of each conference aren't violated.

This is just intended as some food for thought and before you start with the win / loss ratio remember the SEC and Big 10 will be earning the most for a reason and it is not out of the question that these 2 conferences could account for 3 each of the 8 playoff slots each year, or most years.

JR

Along the same lines but different take for football only....

The P5 conferences could keep current conference affiliations. All non-football sports to remain aligned as they are. The football side to be merged into a single conference divided into 7 divisions. Assume that a relatively fair equal sharing model ( 80% equal, 10% bowl game, 10% in sliding scale of TV). Sliding scale for tv payout based on a points system encourages good team, good ratings... TV Prime Time designated games worth 5 pt, primary channels worth 3 pt, secondary channels 2 pt, streaming 1 pt something to that effect.

ND has 3 choices.... all out, get buy in for private 8th division, or play 10 games and chance for playoff with 7 divisions. 65 Teams broken into 7 divisions geographically and prior history based.

All teams play 10 games...play everyone in the division... remaining games on a 2 year home/home basis that are based on historical rivals or best use of big game match ups.

High stakes poker.... you must win your division. Division winners advance to an eight team playoff. 8th playoff spot is Notre Dame or highest ranked. 28 Bowl games for the remaining 57 teams to split.

8th spot highest ranked.... Only outlier with academics is WVU

PAC: PAC: USC, UCLA, Stanford, CAL, Oregon, Oregon St., Washington, Washington St., Arizona, Arizona St.

B10 Great Plains: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Colorado, Utah ,Indiana, Purdue,

B10 Great Lakes: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, BC, Pitt, Syracuse,

Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas AM, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas

SEC East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, Virginia Tech, NCST

ACC: Clemson, Florida St., North Carolina , Virginia, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Duke, Wake Forest



Notre Dame PVT Division Layout

PAC: UCLA, CAL, Oregon, Oregon St., Washington, Washington St., Arizona, Arizona St.

B10 Great Plains: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Colorado, Utah

B10 Great Lakes: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers

Big12: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas AM, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas

SEC East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Vandy, Wake Forest

ACC: Clemson, Florida St., Virginia Tech, North Carolina, NCST, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Louisville

PVT: Notre Dame, USC, Stanford, BC, Miami, Pitt, Syracuse, Duke

This makes a lot of sense. Realignment makes sense when you add a school purely based on wether that school by itself makes you money

I don't think goes far enough. If the networks were looking at it from a purely financial perspective, then we'd get one super conference:

USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Texas, OK
Ohio S, Michigan, Michigan S, Penn St, Kansas, ND
Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Clemson, FSU

(maybe add 2 more for 20 teams... I took the teams I thought were the best brands from each conference and added any that made a CFP appearance).

They'd get $100 million+ a season, and there would be fallout. For instance, the SEC would then take 6 from the ACC (say: VT, Virginia, UNC, Duke, NC St. and GT) to get back to 16.

Big 10 could take: Syracuse, Pitt, Miami, Cal, Stanford and Arizona (?) to get to 16.

The Big 12 could take Oregon St., Washington St, Arizona St., Colorado, Utah and end up back at 12 with Kansas St, OK St., TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa St, and WVU.

(07-21-2020 01:08 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I don't think goes far enough. If the networks were looking at it from a purely financial perspective, then we'd get one super conference:

USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Texas, OK
Ohio S, Michigan, Michigan S, Penn St, Kansas, ND
Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Clemson, FSU

(maybe add 2 more for 20 teams... I took the teams I thought were the best brands from each conference and added any that made a CFP appearance).

They'd get $100 million+ a season, and there would be fallout. For instance, the SEC would then take 6 from the ACC (say: VT, Virginia, UNC, Duke, NC St. and GT) to get back to 16.

Big 10 could take: Syracuse, Pitt, Miami, Cal, Stanford and Arizona (?) to get to 16.

The Big 12 could take Oregon St., Washington St, Arizona St., Colorado, Utah and end up back at 12 with Kansas St, OK St., TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa St, and WVU.

If you are going to work with just the top brands then there would be no West coast schools at all.

All you need do is to take the 20 schools with the highest revenue totals and the highest attendance. You can find that 20 at the top of the page and it won't resemble you list very much.

Off the top of my head:
Big 12: Texas and Oklahoma
Big 10: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa,
SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, L.S.U., Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky
ACC: Florida State, Louisville
PAC: None
Independent: Notre Dame

You will note that Nebraska and Clemson didn't make the top 20.

Nobody in that list made less than 140,000,000 in Revenue and nobody there had fewer than 50,000 average attendance, but the vast majority averaged over 80,000. Include Clemson and Nebraska as being more relevant than Arkansas and Kentucky and because they both average 80,000 and you really clean it up. And out of the SEC Auburn, who you left out, finishes top 11-13 in both categories and 5th in the SEC.

Even in the future there will be programs who would rather keep their own personal fiefdoms than be part of a megaconference. So the scenario where the likes of Ohio State and Michigan agree to share power with the likes of Texas, LSU, Alabama and Georgia is very unlikely to happen. There will still be regional demarcation lines except the difference being the regions are enlarged into super regions in some instances. The Big 10 needs to go national due to demographic trends going over several decades. So it makes sense to look to merge with a part of the West.

As JR has noted so many times, there will be programs who would, through little fault of their own, be in a position where it won't be financially feasible to maintain an identity separate from a larger conference. I think Oklahoma and Florida State are close to that position today, FSU being much closer. Notre Dame can hold out for longer but I don't know if I can say the same thing with respect to Southern Cal or Washington. Nebraska won't say it publicly but they must have read the tea leaves and decided to go for a greater financial security before it became too critical for them.

On the other hand, programs like North Carolina and Virginia focus more on basketball. So if in the new world of college basketball they can better monetize the sport then it makes sense to keep their own conference and play against like-minded programs there. UCLA and Arizona could do the same thing in the new PAC with Kansas, BYU, Baylor, Iowa State and Houston.

(07-20-2020 10:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  How the 65 or so schools might be grouped:

Think of it this way. By 2024 what would the current conferences pay:

SEC 67-72 million

Big 64-70 million

Big 12 40-42 million

ACC 32-34 million

PAC 32-34 million

Let's say that for the sake of argument we do indeed move to 4 conferences but not with set numbers.

If ESPN truly desires Texas the SEC becomes the easiest move for them. Texas gets a deserved payout and ESPN doesn't have to overpay for the rest. The same could be said of Oklahoma whether they choose the SEC or the Big 10.

Notre Dame wants to remain independent so they wait to see their options.

The ideal move for the Big 10 would be Stanford, U.S.C., Washington, Oregon, and Colorado. The academics fit and the brand power of 5 of those is strong enough to merit the Big 10 money. Colorado is the exception but they provide the bridge and a strong market and solid academics. Perhaps Kansas makes the 6 if Notre Dame says no. But with Stanford and U.S.C. and much more money perhaps Notre Dame says yes, which is the assumption I'll make.

Would Clemson and Florida State be worth the money the networks would pay to the SEC? Against the lineup being provided yes.

So the SEC is done at 18 adding Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Clemson.
The Big 10 is done at 20 adding Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington and Notre Dame.

A new PAC is formed Total Members 16 (Pay Range 32-34 million):
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $512,000,000 to $544,000,000

The ACC reforms: Total Members 14 (Pay Range 32-34 million)
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $448,000,000 to $476,000,000

SEC: Total Members 18 (Pay Range 67-72 million)
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, South Carolina
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $1,206,000,000 to $1,296,000,000


Big 10 Total Members 20 (Pay Ranger: 64-70 million)
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $1,280,000,000 to $1,400,000,000


Total Cost per Year to Networks: $3,446,000,000 to $3,716,000,000


Is the cost of the 6 schools added to the Big 10 worth it? Absolutely. The markets added are among some of the largest and the branding is strong. Many more eyeballs are added for relatively little considering the potential advertising revenue and how the money might rejuvenate some of those West Coast programs, plus Notre Dame.

Are the 4 added to the SEC worth the cost? Absolutely. The number of annual must see games will be incredible.

The cost of maintaining the PAC and ACC doesn't really change much above natural escalation. The basketball first programs don't cost ESPN or FOX more. The football values are relative to their draw and competitive strength.

What about Cincinnati, Brigham Young & Houston? For the markets they deliver and their level of competition these all are worth the promotion.

So the New Upper Tier has 4 conferences consisting of 68 schools:

An 8 school playoff should result with the 4 champions being auto qualifiers and everyone else trying to grab 1 of 4 at large slots.

I know this is a bit odd but segregation by worth in a world where Networks set the price of admission seems somewhat reasonable as long as the main tenets of each conference aren't violated.

This is just intended as some food for thought and before you start with the win / loss ratio remember the SEC and Big 10 will be earning the most for a reason and it is not out of the question that these 2 conferences could account for 3 each of the 8 playoff slots each year, or most years.

Could you re-do the calculations should ESPN agree to bring in Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?

(07-22-2020 02:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(07-20-2020 10:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  How the 65 or so schools might be grouped:

Think of it this way. By 2024 what would the current conferences pay:

SEC 67-72 million

Big 64-70 million

Big 12 40-42 million

ACC 32-34 million

PAC 32-34 million

Let's say that for the sake of argument we do indeed move to 4 conferences but not with set numbers.

If ESPN truly desires Texas the SEC becomes the easiest move for them. Texas gets a deserved payout and ESPN doesn't have to overpay for the rest. The same could be said of Oklahoma whether they choose the SEC or the Big 10.

Notre Dame wants to remain independent so they wait to see their options.

The ideal move for the Big 10 would be Stanford, U.S.C., Washington, Oregon, and Colorado. The academics fit and the brand power of 5 of those is strong enough to merit the Big 10 money. Colorado is the exception but they provide the bridge and a strong market and solid academics. Perhaps Kansas makes the 6 if Notre Dame says no. But with Stanford and U.S.C. and much more money perhaps Notre Dame says yes, which is the assumption I'll make.

Would Clemson and Florida State be worth the money the networks would pay to the SEC? Against the lineup being provided yes.

So the SEC is done at 18 adding Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Clemson.
The Big 10 is done at 20 adding Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington and Notre Dame.

A new PAC is formed Total Members 16 (Pay Range 32-34 million):
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $512,000,000 to $544,000,000

The ACC reforms: Total Members 14 (Pay Range 32-34 million)
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $448,000,000 to $476,000,000

SEC: Total Members 18 (Pay Range 67-72 million)
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, South Carolina
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $1,206,000,000 to $1,296,000,000


Big 10 Total Members 20 (Pay Ranger: 64-70 million)
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Total Cost per Year to Networks: $1,280,000,000 to $1,400,000,000


Total Cost per Year to Networks: $3,446,000,000 to $3,716,000,000


Is the cost of the 6 schools added to the Big 10 worth it? Absolutely. The markets added are among some of the largest and the branding is strong. Many more eyeballs are added for relatively little considering the potential advertising revenue and how the money might rejuvenate some of those West Coast programs, plus Notre Dame.

Are the 4 added to the SEC worth the cost? Absolutely. The number of annual must see games will be incredible.

The cost of maintaining the PAC and ACC doesn't really change much above natural escalation. The basketball first programs don't cost ESPN or FOX more. The football values are relative to their draw and competitive strength.

What about Cincinnati, Brigham Young & Houston? For the markets they deliver and their level of competition these all are worth the promotion.

So the New Upper Tier has 4 conferences consisting of 68 schools:

An 8 school playoff should result with the 4 champions being auto qualifiers and everyone else trying to grab 1 of 4 at large slots.

I know this is a bit odd but segregation by worth in a world where Networks set the price of admission seems somewhat reasonable as long as the main tenets of each conference aren't violated.

This is just intended as some food for thought and before you start with the win / loss ratio remember the SEC and Big 10 will be earning the most for a reason and it is not out of the question that these 2 conferences could account for 3 each of the 8 playoff slots each year, or most years.

Could you re-do the calculations should ESPN agree to bring in Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?

I don't think it would do anything but adjust the amounts roughly to what the Big 10 total cost to the network would be. And I say that because if ESPN wouldn't pay pro rata for their inclusion then I don't think the SEC would be in agreement. And the leverage here is with Texas and Oklahoma. If ESPN wants their inclusion in a conference to which ESPN fully holds the rights then they will need to meet the inclusion of those schools to obtain them and the total cost should not impact existing SEC schools.

(07-21-2020 02:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2020 01:08 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I don't think goes far enough. If the networks were looking at it from a purely financial perspective, then we'd get one super conference:

USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Texas, OK
Ohio S, Michigan, Michigan S, Penn St, Kansas, ND
Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Clemson, FSU

(maybe add 2 more for 20 teams... I took the teams I thought were the best brands from each conference and added any that made a CFP appearance).

They'd get $100 million+ a season, and there would be fallout. For instance, the SEC would then take 6 from the ACC (say: VT, Virginia, UNC, Duke, NC St. and GT) to get back to 16.

Big 10 could take: Syracuse, Pitt, Miami, Cal, Stanford and Arizona (?) to get to 16.

The Big 12 could take Oregon St., Washington St, Arizona St., Colorado, Utah and end up back at 12 with Kansas St, OK St., TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa St, and WVU.

If you are going to work with just the top brands then there would be no West coast schools at all.

All you need do is to take the 20 schools with the highest revenue totals and the highest attendance. You can find that 20 at the top of the page and it won't resemble you list very much.

Off the top of my head:
Big 12: Texas and Oklahoma
Big 10: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa,
SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, L.S.U., Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky
ACC: Florida State, Louisville
PAC: None
Independent: Notre Dame

You will note that Nebraska and Clemson didn't make the top 20.

Nobody in that list made less than 140,000,000 in Revenue and nobody there had fewer than 50,000 average attendance, but the vast majority averaged over 80,000. Include Clemson and Nebraska as being more relevant than Arkansas and Kentucky and because they both average 80,000 and you really clean it up. And out of the SEC Auburn, who you left out, finishes top 11-13 in both categories and 5th in the SEC.

I meant no offense at leaving Auburn out! I know they are a huge brand.