Let me address some of what Buc 66 is saying about death rates from Covid 19 in the context of the explosion of new cases. As he says, not everybody dies from Corona virus. Right now the death rate among confirmed cases in the United States is about 4.21% (135,822 deaths out of a total of 3,219,999 confirmed cases). That is compared to a worldwide average of 4.5%. So about 95% of folks do survive. Some suffer mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, but some have weeks of harrowing illness including hospitalization and intubation on a ventilator under heavy sedation, and some have serious long term lung damage.

These accurate numbers are available on many sites, including those run by the NY Times or Washington Post. What are not accurate are the false assertions by President Trump and aide Mark Meadows saying that 99% of Covid 19 cases are “totally harmless”. The 4.21% of cases which result in death are not “totally harmless”. Cases which result in hospitalization, or in use of a ventilator or in weeks of serious illness with long term damage to lungs are not “totally harmless”. Look at the pictures of UK prime minister Boris Johnson in the hospital. It wasn’t “totally harmless” for him.

As for Buc66’ home state of Georgia, it has the fifth largest growth in new cases among all American states with 2,837 yesterday. Let’s look at that in context.
The U.S. had (past tense) done good work “flattening the curve”, with a low of 18,000 new cases posted on June 9. But with pressure from the White House to open up quickly without following guidelines (“Liberate Michigan”, “Liberate Minnesota” etc.) we have had an exponential explosion of new cases that is happening in almost no other developed nation on earth. All of that hard American work has been wasted in many states, with the curve shooting up again and we are back to square one in many places.

The U.S. has added over 1 million new Covid 19 cases in just the last 23 days, reaching a total of 3,219,999 (which is just over ¼ of the total cases on the planet) and averaging over 61,000 new cases per day the last 2 days, about 27% of the total new cases on earth. Those numbers are rising. That is why fall sports are in doubt.

This is not happening in every state. Some states which were hardest hit early on, including New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, have changed so that they now have some of the lowest rates of new cases in the US. That is also what happened in the EU where they lowered cases and have generally kept them low.

The 11 worst hit American states in the new explosion are:
Texas – 11,394 new cases yesterday
Florida – 8,935 new cases
California – 7,248
Arizona – 4,057
Georgia – 2,837
Alabama – 2,212
North Carolina – 2,059
Louisiana – 1, 843
South Carolina – 1,782
Tennessee – 1,605
Ohio – 1,114

These 11 states account for 45,066 cases or 73% of yesterday’s total of 61,000 new cases. All but 1 of these are states which went for Trump last time. They have large populations likely to believe the Trump Twitter feed, and to disbelieve expert medical advice.

Regarding the death rate: it has fallen somewhat. That is one piece of good news in the current mess The current U.S. confirmed case fatality rate of 4.21% is down from a high of 5.98% on May 16. It is slightly better than the current worldwide average of 4.5%. It is almost 20 times worse than the figure for seasonal flu of 0.23% (less than ¼ of 1 percent). And of course there are vaccines for seasonal flu.

But epidemiologists including Dr. Fauci and President Trump’s Surgeon General Jerome Adams have cautioned against taking too much comfort from these current death rates.

First, many of the new Covid 19 cases are now in the 18 to 34 age group. That age group will have a lower mortality than older folks, age 70 or over. But… over time that younger age group will also spread the virus to others more vulnerable: their mothers, fathers, aunts, uncles, grandparents, etc.

Secondly, as experts including Dr. Adams and Dr. Fauci have been saying, the death rate is a “lagging indicator” which will run at least 3 to 4 weeks behind the growth in new cases. That is because it usually takes people a week or two to get sick enough to be hospitalized, and once in the hospital the severely ill average around 2 weeks or more before death. So there is often a lag of at least 3 to 4 weeks before a new case results in death. See for example Dr. Adams at https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coro...4780ef4cc5

Right now we are less than 3 weeks into the new explosion of cases, which did not even reach 30,000 new cases per day (half the current daily number) until June 19, which is 20 days ago. We are just starting to see the effects of all those new cases on the death rate.

And sure enough, the last 3 days (July 7 through July 9) have seen a larger growth in new deaths than any 3 day period since June 9 through June 12: 994 deaths on 7/7; 890 on 7/8 and 960 on 7/9. That is up from the prior week’s average of 518 deaths per day! It unfortunately seems likely that those numbers will rise further.

After new Covid 19 cases increased in March and April of this year, so did the death rate. From 1.36% on March 20 it grew to 5.98% on May 16. It is unfortunately likely to grow again after this new increase in cases, although perhaps not quite as much because of the difference in age of those getting sick.

Bottom line – after working hard to “flatten the curve”, many U.S. states have been slammed by new cases in a way that compares badly with other developed nations like the European Union or South Korea or Taiwan. That is now beginning to be felt, not only in new cases, but in hospitalizations and deaths. It is anything but “totally harmless”. It is putting many things, including fall sports, in doubt.

You played your hand. "It's all Trump's fault!"

To bring this back around to ETSU Lester Wilson (either on Facebook or Twitter cant remember) talked about his friend recently having a heart attack and dying. Since he tested positive for Covid, that is what they listed his cause of death as.

The goal posts on this thing keep shifting. It was supposed to be to flatten the curve as to not overwhelm the hospitals. Outside of some of like new york (and even there they built those ship hospitals that never got used) that hasnt happened. It never was the goal to stay in our homes forever and hope no one gets it until a vaccine came.

Your blaming of certain politicians but not others proves that this has become political, as everything has now.

(07-10-2020 07:03 AM)brock20 Wrote:  To bring this back around to ETSU Lester Wilson (either on Facebook or Twitter cant remember) talked about his friend recently having a heart attack and dying. Since he tested positive for Covid, that is what they listed his cause of death as.

The goal posts on this thing keep shifting. It was supposed to be to flatten the curve as to not overwhelm the hospitals. Outside of some of like new york (and even there they built those ship hospitals that never got used) that hasnt happened. It never was the goal to stay in our homes forever and hope no one gets it until a vaccine came.

Your blaming of certain politicians but not others proves that this has become political, as everything has now.

I’m not seeing where anyone is blaming trump.

(07-10-2020 07:31 AM)Etsuwins Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 07:03 AM)brock20 Wrote:  To bring this back around to ETSU Lester Wilson (either on Facebook or Twitter cant remember) talked about his friend recently having a heart attack and dying. Since he tested positive for Covid, that is what they listed his cause of death as.

The goal posts on this thing keep shifting. It was supposed to be to flatten the curve as to not overwhelm the hospitals. Outside of some of like new york (and even there they built those ship hospitals that never got used) that hasnt happened. It never was the goal to stay in our homes forever and hope no one gets it until a vaccine came.

Your blaming of certain politicians but not others proves that this has become political, as everything has now.

I’m not seeing where anyone is blaming trump.

From his post:

These 11 states account for 45,066 cases or 73% of yesterday’s total of 61,000 new cases. All but 1 of these are states which went for Trump last time. They have large populations likely to believe the Trump Twitter feed, and to disbelieve expert medical advice.

This statement is nothing but politics and blame. There could be lots of reasons why there are upticks in these states. Saying its because of Trumps Twitter feed is nonsensical.

It's hard to talk about this without dipping into the politics of it, particularly in an election year. Our President didn't hesitate to repeatedly blame blue state governors when New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts (a moderate Republican governs there, actually) were getting hammered early. Now when most of the explosion of new cases are in red states, and those blue states have been doing reasonably well, I guess that can't be discussed.

What concerns me most is this. The U.S. demonstrated that this thing could be limited. We were limiting it. We have abandoned that course and the results are predictable. While the European Union has continued to keep cases low, it is exploding in the U.S..

We are taking a hard ride down a bad road that we did not have to travel. That we have allowed this to happen is mind boggling.

I’ll make it political, I don’t care. Trump is willfully suppressing and subverting the best medical guidance we have available because he cares more about the economy, how it fattens his family and donors’ wallets, and how it (the economy) may be his only chance at reelection with swing/independent voters. Downplaying the “China Virus” emboldens his base to mingle and spend and to vote in person when the time comes. Downplaying helps Trump to make unsupported claims about absentee voting, in an effort to suppress votes his campaign surely expects to go Democrat. The man refuses to wear a mask. What more do you need? I’d love to catch a game at Freedom Hall this season, but I’m skeptical. ETSU basketball the way we knew it changed with COVID-19. Forbes was smart to take the paycheck in this time of great uncertainty.

(07-10-2020 09:06 AM)shampoo Wrote:  I’ll make it political, I don’t care. Trump is willfully suppressing and subverting the best medical guidance we have available because he cares more about the economy, how it fattens his family and donors’ wallets, and how it (the economy) may be his only chance at reelection with swing/independent voters. Downplaying the “China Virus” emboldens his base to mingle and spend and to vote in person when the time comes. Downplaying helps Trump to make unsupported claims about absentee voting, in an effort to suppress votes his campaign surely expects to go Democrat. The man refuses to wear a mask. What more do you need? I’d love to catch a game at Freedom Hall this season, but I’m skeptical. ETSU basketball the way we knew it changed with COVID-19. Forbes was smart to take the paycheck in this time of great uncertainty.

There would be no or very minimal COVID-19 problem in the USA if Hillary had of been elected, right? Now we need Joe Biden to save us, bail us out of this mess, right?

(07-10-2020 08:53 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  It's hard to talk about this without dipping into the politics of it, particularly in an election year. Our President didn't hesitate to repeatedly blame blue state governors when New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts (a moderate Republican governs there, actually) were getting hammered early. Now when most of the explosion of new cases are in red states, and those blue states have been doing reasonably well, I guess that can't be discussed.

What concerns me most is this. The U.S. demonstrated that this thing could be limited. We were limiting it. We have abandoned that course and the results are predictable. While the European Union has continued to keep cases low, it is exploding in the U.S..

We are taking a hard ride down a bad road that we did not have to travel. That we have allowed this to happen is mind boggling.

Those "blue states" (again, you look at everything through politics) might be doing well now because most of the vulnerable got sick or died months ago. That may have been the solution all along. Get it over with. But again, it was always the goal to not overwhelm the hospitals. That hasnt happened. The goal never was to not spread the virus. What changed?

Only thing I do know is this, keeping people locked up in their homes and out of work is not sustainable. We could eliminate all car accidents by never driving but we choose to live with those risks.

(07-10-2020 06:41 AM)brock20 Wrote:  You played your hand. "It's all Trump's fault!"

(07-10-2020 09:06 AM)shampoo Wrote:  I’ll make it political, I don’t care. Trump is willfully suppressing and subverting the best medical guidance we have available because he cares more about the economy, how it fattens his family and donors’ wallets, and how it (the economy) may be his only chance at reelection with swing/independent voters. Downplaying the “China Virus” emboldens his base to mingle and spend and to vote in person when the time comes. Downplaying helps Trump to make unsupported claims about absentee voting, in an effort to suppress votes his campaign surely expects to go Democrat. The man refuses to wear a mask. What more do you need? I’d love to catch a game at Freedom Hall this season, but I’m skeptical. ETSU basketball the way we knew it changed with COVID-19. Forbes was smart to take the paycheck in this time of great uncertainty.

In summary: Orange Man Bad

Seems to me, a novice, that COVID-19 has been LESS deadly than originally feared (back in March) but maybe even MORE contagious than originally thought.

I just wonder about long-term stuff, like how chicken pox comes back 30-40 years later as shingles.

I'll be dead by then, but, still.

(07-10-2020 09:49 AM)Meanmike0001 Wrote:  Seems to me, a novice, that COVID-19 has been LESS deadly than originally feared (back in March) but maybe even MORE contagious than originally thought.

That seems to be what they are thinking now but who knows what we will see in 2 months. Very little chance of death for the young but seems to be harder on the older/vulnerable.

(07-10-2020 09:33 AM)Buc66 Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 09:06 AM)shampoo Wrote:  I’ll make it political, I don’t care. Trump is willfully suppressing and subverting the best medical guidance we have available because he cares more about the economy, how it fattens his family and donors’ wallets, and how it (the economy) may be his only chance at reelection with swing/independent voters. Downplaying the “China Virus” emboldens his base to mingle and spend and to vote in person when the time comes. Downplaying helps Trump to make unsupported claims about absentee voting, in an effort to suppress votes his campaign surely expects to go Democrat. The man refuses to wear a mask. What more do you need? I’d love to catch a game at Freedom Hall this season, but I’m skeptical. ETSU basketball the way we knew it changed with COVID-19. Forbes was smart to take the paycheck in this time of great uncertainty.

There would be no or very minimal COVID-19 problem in the USA if Hillary had of been elected, right? Now we need Joe Biden to save us, bail us out of this mess, right?

It might have been handled better. They might have listened to the experts.

(07-10-2020 07:03 AM)brock20 Wrote:  To bring this back around to ETSU Lester Wilson (either on Facebook or Twitter cant remember) talked about his friend recently having a heart attack and dying. Since he tested positive for Covid, that is what they listed his cause of death as.

Covid 19 causes blood clots/micro-clots, it very well may have been the underlying cause of death. Without more data from an autopsy it is easy for folks to speculate.

(07-10-2020 09:59 AM)Etsuwins Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 09:33 AM)Buc66 Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 09:06 AM)shampoo Wrote:  I’ll make it political, I don’t care. Trump is willfully suppressing and subverting the best medical guidance we have available because he cares more about the economy, how it fattens his family and donors’ wallets, and how it (the economy) may be his only chance at reelection with swing/independent voters. Downplaying the “China Virus” emboldens his base to mingle and spend and to vote in person when the time comes. Downplaying helps Trump to make unsupported claims about absentee voting, in an effort to suppress votes his campaign surely expects to go Democrat. The man refuses to wear a mask. What more do you need? I’d love to catch a game at Freedom Hall this season, but I’m skeptical. ETSU basketball the way we knew it changed with COVID-19. Forbes was smart to take the paycheck in this time of great uncertainty.

There would be no or very minimal COVID-19 problem in the USA if Hillary had of been elected, right? Now we need Joe Biden to save us, bail us out of this mess, right?

It might have been handled better. They might have listened to the experts.

The "experts" back in February:

(07-10-2020 09:49 AM)Meanmike0001 Wrote:  Seems to me, a novice, that COVID-19 has been LESS deadly than originally feared (back in March) but maybe even MORE contagious than originally thought.

I just wonder about long-term stuff, like how chicken pox comes back 30-40 years later as shingles.

I'll be dead by then, but, still.

Not to quibble, but I think that this thing has proven much more deadly than early predictions.

You might recall in an early press conference that Dr. Fauci estimated that the mortality rate of Covid 19 would probably be about 10 times that of seasonal flu. Currently confirmed case fatality worldwide is 4.5%, in the U.S. it is 4.21%. That is almost 20 times more deadly than seasonal flu.

The first IHME modeling offered by Trump and the Coronavirus task force in March predicted around 60,308 deaths in the US U.S. in the first wave, with a range of 34,063 to 140,081. http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/...041720.pdf
We are already at 135,978 deaths and counting, and nowhere near the end of the first wave.

The big numbers, 1 or 2 million deaths, were what could have occurred if NO mitigating steps were taken.

I agree that this thing has proven more contagious than originally thought.
But despite strong early shutdown measures, I think that it's also been more deadly than initially predicted.

(07-10-2020 10:17 AM)brock20 Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 09:59 AM)Etsuwins Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 09:33 AM)Buc66 Wrote:  

(07-10-2020 09:06 AM)shampoo Wrote:  I’ll make it political, I don’t care. Trump is willfully suppressing and subverting the best medical guidance we have available because he cares more about the economy, how it fattens his family and donors’ wallets, and how it (the economy) may be his only chance at reelection with swing/independent voters. Downplaying the “China Virus” emboldens his base to mingle and spend and to vote in person when the time comes. Downplaying helps Trump to make unsupported claims about absentee voting, in an effort to suppress votes his campaign surely expects to go Democrat. The man refuses to wear a mask. What more do you need? I’d love to catch a game at Freedom Hall this season, but I’m skeptical. ETSU basketball the way we knew it changed with COVID-19. Forbes was smart to take the paycheck in this time of great uncertainty.

There would be no or very minimal COVID-19 problem in the USA if Hillary had of been elected, right? Now we need Joe Biden to save us, bail us out of this mess, right?

It might have been handled better. They might have listened to the experts.

The "experts" back in February:

Handled better? By those who called Trump a racist for shutting down travel from China on January, 31? They would have told the CDC to take a hike for initially saying masks were ineffective and ordered masks immediately anyway? By those trying to run Trump out of office with impeachment proceedings while this virus was launched onto the world out of the Wuhan international airport? My WAG is that we would likely be in much worse shape by the “it might have been handled better” crowd! Defending Trump? Hell no. But surmising that Clinton, Biden, Pelosi, et al might have handled this better is beyond absurd.

Early medical advice warned the public away from masks because

Trump's Surgeon General "if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"

There was a mask shortage, just like there was a test shortage (great preparation there!). And the experts were doing the best they could to prioritize what they had.
Obviously the same masks that were so critically necessary to protect healthcare workers can help the general public.

Now even Mitch McConnell has been wearing masks. And today, on July 10, with cases skyrocketing past 3 million, with 135,000 dead, the White House says that our Dear Leader will wear a mask in public for the first time.

Now there is leadership! Better than injecting disinfectant, I suppose.

Medical experts in this administration have had to tiptoe around the enormous ego of the boss and whatever nonsense he may have picked up from Sean Hannity and company. Injecting disinfectant! "Introducing light into the body"! Hydroxychloroquine! Fill the pews by Easter! Stop doing so much testing! Whatever nonsense he picks up from TV binge watching gets announced as the policy of the day.

That expert advice has been as clear and consistent as it has despite all that is fairly remarkable.

(07-10-2020 10:53 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  Early medical advice warned the public away from masks because

Trump's Surgeon General "if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"

There was a mask shortage, just like there was a test shortage (great preparation there!). And the experts were doing the best they could to prioritize what they had.
Obviously the same masks that were so critically necessary to protect healthcare workers can help the general public.

Now even Mitch McConnell has been wearing masks. And today, on July 10, with cases skyrocketing past 3 million, with 135,000 dead, the White House says that our Dear Leader will wear a mask in public for the first time.

Now there is leadership! Better than injecting disinfectant, I suppose.

Medical experts in this administration have had to tiptoe around the enormous ego of the boss and whatever nonsense he may have picked up from Sean Hannity and company. Injecting disinfectant! "Introducing light into the body"! Hydroxychloroquine! Fill the pews by Easter! Stop doing so much testing! Whatever nonsense he picks up from TV binge watching gets announced as the policy of the day.

That expert advice has been as clear and consistent as it has despite all that is fairly remarkable.

This whole post is embarrassing. I feel sorry for you