(07-02-2020 02:20 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  All the discussions about games and fans during the fall are missing perspective. Currently, we have been unable control the spread of the virus. Some countries (e.g., New Zealand, South Korea, etc.) are in a good place to bring back some traditional social activities. A few other places (e.g., Germany and varied European nations) are in a good trajectory due to controlling the spread.

In the US if you are ill and need a test, it frequently takes a week to get the virus test result...at which point, it’s nearly pointless to attempt contact tracing and pretend that we’re preventing further spread. What’s occurring in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California today is getting close to what occurred in New York and New Jersey two months ago. The virus is spreading faster than the health care system can manage.

At this point, having any fans at games during the fall is extremely wishful thinking. In many states, there’s a lot of work to be done before games or practices (without any live fans) can start.

I just posted that the CDC, has subtly punted on slowing or containing the virus. and that herd immunity or waiting for a vaccine are the only 2 real options left. Because of everything you said in your second paragraph. I know in Georgia the cases are rising, however the death rate is falling. meaning more healthy people are getting the virus and recovering. its still really early, but its reasonable to expect the same in all the new hot spot states also.

(07-02-2020 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:28 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-01-2020 10:50 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(07-01-2020 10:35 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  With the student athletes continue getting the virus? This includes football players this month, next month, September, October, November, December, January and beyond? Football may not be played until fall of 2021 or until a vaccine could be found.

With a record 50,000 new cases today, the chances of having a 2020-21 college basketball season are starting to appear increasingly unlikely.

I wonder if any team would be willing to try and get it as a team now to get it over with? Like when you wanted your kid to play with kids that had chicken pox, to get it over with while we were young.

I have seen reports that say that any antibodies with Covid are temporary.

If so, that means no "herd immunity" and the fact exists that you can contract it multiple times.

Does anyone have any studies that conclude that "herd immunity" with Covid is a legitimate thing?

Does anybody have studies that conclude that you can get it multiple times?

Well as far as we know, they think the ones that have gotten it are protected for a while, until the next strain, next yr? this fall? So either way chicken pox theory seems out. We may get a few wks in then all of a sudden, games cancelled.

(07-02-2020 02:50 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:28 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-01-2020 10:50 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  With a record 50,000 new cases today, the chances of having a 2020-21 college basketball season are starting to appear increasingly unlikely.

I wonder if any team would be willing to try and get it as a team now to get it over with? Like when you wanted your kid to play with kids that had chicken pox, to get it over with while we were young.

I have seen reports that say that any antibodies with Covid are temporary.

If so, that means no "herd immunity" and the fact exists that you can contract it multiple times.

Does anyone have any studies that conclude that "herd immunity" with Covid is a legitimate thing?

Does anybody have studies that conclude that you can get it multiple times?

Well as far as we know, they think the ones that have gotten it are protected for a while, until the next strain, next yr? this fall? So either way chicken pox theory seems out. We may get a few wks in then all of a sudden, games cancelled.

Which is true of every single illness. Its why the flue vaccine is hit and miss. They have to guess which version will hit in that particular year.

(07-02-2020 03:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 02:50 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:28 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  I wonder if any team would be willing to try and get it as a team now to get it over with? Like when you wanted your kid to play with kids that had chicken pox, to get it over with while we were young.

I have seen reports that say that any antibodies with Covid are temporary.

If so, that means no "herd immunity" and the fact exists that you can contract it multiple times.

Does anyone have any studies that conclude that "herd immunity" with Covid is a legitimate thing?

Does anybody have studies that conclude that you can get it multiple times?

Well as far as we know, they think the ones that have gotten it are protected for a while, until the next strain, next yr? this fall? So either way chicken pox theory seems out. We may get a few wks in then all of a sudden, games cancelled.

Which is true of every single illness. Its why the flue vaccine is hit and miss. They have to guess which version will hit in that particular year.

There's differences though. You get a tetanus shot every ten years and you're good. Chickenpox has a lifetime immunity with the caveat that you could develop shingles later in life. You never really get rid of herpes. The flu? New shot every year and it's still hit or miss but you're not likely to get the same flu twice in the same season. So far Covid hasn't mutated as rapidly as the flu does, so that's good news as a vaccine would be more effective but how long does it last once you get ill or the vaccine is still unknown.

(07-02-2020 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:28 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-01-2020 10:50 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(07-01-2020 10:35 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  With the student athletes continue getting the virus? This includes football players this month, next month, September, October, November, December, January and beyond? Football may not be played until fall of 2021 or until a vaccine could be found.

With a record 50,000 new cases today, the chances of having a 2020-21 college basketball season are starting to appear increasingly unlikely.

I wonder if any team would be willing to try and get it as a team now to get it over with? Like when you wanted your kid to play with kids that had chicken pox, to get it over with while we were young.

I have seen reports that say that any antibodies with Covid are temporary.

If so, that means no "herd immunity" and the fact exists that you can contract it multiple times.

Does anyone have any studies that conclude that "herd immunity" with Covid is a legitimate thing?

Does anybody have studies that conclude that you can get it multiple times?

Not that I'm aware of, but then it's only been around for about half a year. What has been determined so far is that, while the body does create antibodies for COVID-19, they don't last long.

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' because antibodies disappear after a few weeks in some people
"The study also found that 14% of individuals who had tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in the first round of testing, no longer tested positive in subsequent tests carried out weeks later."

(07-02-2020 03:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 02:50 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 06:28 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  I wonder if any team would be willing to try and get it as a team now to get it over with? Like when you wanted your kid to play with kids that had chicken pox, to get it over with while we were young.

I have seen reports that say that any antibodies with Covid are temporary.

If so, that means no "herd immunity" and the fact exists that you can contract it multiple times.

Does anyone have any studies that conclude that "herd immunity" with Covid is a legitimate thing?

Does anybody have studies that conclude that you can get it multiple times?

Well as far as we know, they think the ones that have gotten it are protected for a while, until the next strain, next yr? this fall? So either way chicken pox theory seems out. We may get a few wks in then all of a sudden, games cancelled.

Which is true of every single illness. Its why the flue vaccine is hit and miss. They have to guess which version will hit in that particular year.

Not every illness. Flu is a little different in that it changes every year. Polio, on the other hand, is something that you can be vaccinated for once and you're good. Jury is still out on whether COVID changes, but no evidence of that yet.

I have, however, read the reports about antibodies having a shelf life.

All that said, I'm optimistic about some form of football this year. Student athletes are safer in their programs than outside, considering the extra precautions, regular testing and quarantining, etc.

(07-02-2020 02:43 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 02:20 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  All the discussions about games and fans during the fall are missing perspective. Currently, we have been unable control the spread of the virus. Some countries (e.g., New Zealand, South Korea, etc.) are in a good place to bring back some traditional social activities. A few other places (e.g., Germany and varied European nations) are in a good trajectory due to controlling the spread.

In the US if you are ill and need a test, it frequently takes a week to get the virus test result...at which point, it’s nearly pointless to attempt contact tracing and pretend that we’re preventing further spread. What’s occurring in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California today is getting close to what occurred in New York and New Jersey two months ago. The virus is spreading faster than the health care system can manage.

At this point, having any fans at games during the fall is extremely wishful thinking. In many states, there’s a lot of work to be done before games or practices (without any live fans) can start.

I just posted that the CDC, has subtly punted on slowing or containing the virus. and that herd immunity or waiting for a vaccine are the only 2 real options left. Because of everything you said in your second paragraph. I know in Georgia the cases are rising, however the death rate is falling. meaning more healthy people are getting the virus and recovering. its still really early, but its reasonable to expect the same in all the new hot spot states also.

If the CDC, public health experts and/or elected leaders have “punted on slowing or containing the virus”, then the chances of holding collegiate athletic events this fall have dropped dramatically. Currently, the risks to students, coaches, support staff, as well as friends & families is too great. Solutions like herd immunity and vaccines are considerations for 2021 and beyond.

FWIW: The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced a new set of rules for foreign students - international students cannot enter or stay in the U.S. if their college offers courses only online in the fall semester.

From the academic side, this makes sense. If classes are only online, the vast majority wouldn't have a reason to step on campus, probably aside from in-person research and personal reasons.

But that also means international student athletes won't be able to participate.

A user on reddit created a full list of International players in NCAA Division I FBS who this would include:

ACC – 19
Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson (Nigeria)
Abdul Bello, OL, Florida State (Nigeria)
Sylvain Yondjouen, DL, Georgia Tech (Belgium)
Louis Hedley, P, Miami (Australia)
Elias Lugo-Fagundo, WR, Miami (Puerto Rico)
Alan Nadelsticher, LS, Miami (Mexico)
Mackenzie Morgan, P, NC State (Australia)
Kirk Christodoulou, P, Pittsburgh (Australia)
Liam Dick, OL, Pittsburgh (Canada)
Jared Wayne, WR, Pittsburgh (Canada)
Matthew Bergeron, OL, Syracuse (Quebec, Canada)
Geoff Cantin, LB, Syracuse (Quebec, Canada)
Patrick Davis, OL, Syracuse (Quebec, Canada)
Tyrell Richards, LB, Syracuse (Canada)
Kariem Al Soufi, OL, Virginia (Germany)
Terrell Jana, WR, Virginia (Canada)
Gerrik Vollmer, OL, Virginia (Germany)
Luke Wentz, QB, Virginia (Germany)
Oscar Bradburn, P, Virginia Tech (Australia)

Big Ten – 15
Sydney Brown, S, Illinois (Canada)
Blake Hayes, P, Illinois (Australia)
Sio Nofoagatoto’a, DL, Indiana (American Samoa)
Haydon Whitehead, P, Indiana (Australia)
Michael Sleep-Dalton, P, Iowa (Australia)
David Ojabo, DL, Michigan (Scotland)
Luiji Vilain, DL, Michigan (Canada)
Julius Welschof, DL, Michigan (Germany)
Jack Bouwmeester, P, Michigan State (Australia)
Daniel Faalele, OL, Minnesota (Australia)
Joseph Darkwa, DT, Penn State (Germany)
Jonathan Sutherland, S, Penn State (Canada)
Anton Oskarrson, OL, Rutgers (Sweden)
Adam Korsak, P, Rutgers (Australia)
Sam Vretman, OL, Rutgers (Sweden)

Big 12 – 7
Matt Leo, DE, Iowa State (Australia)
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State (Canada)
Tom Hutton, P, Oklahoma State (Australia)
Ryan Bujcevski, P, Texas (Australia)
Jose Miranda, RB, TCU (Nicaragua)
Jordan Sandy, P, TCU (Australia)
Eric Sjostedt, OL, West Virginia (Sweden)

Pac-12 – 21
Eddie Siaumau, LB, Arizona (American Samoa)
Steven Coutts, P, California (Australia)
Jasper Frils, OL, California (Germany)
Siulagisipai Fuimaono, DT, California (Japan)
Lone Toailoa, DL, California (New Zealand)
James Stefanou, P, Colorado (Australia)
Va’atofu Sauvao, OL, Colorado (American Samoa)
Valentin Senn, OL, Colorado (Australia)
Elu Aydon, DL, Oregon State (American Samoa)
Simon Sandberg, DL, Oregon State (Sweden)
Ralph Taufa’asau, TE, Oregon State (American Samoa)
Juliano Falaniko, LB, USC (American Samoa)
Ben Griffiths, P, USC (Australia)
Luke Felix-Fualalo, OL, Utah (Australia)
Ben Lennon, P, Utah (Australia)
Keegan Markgraf, LS, Utah (Canada)
Viane Moala, DL, Utah (American Samoa)
Bamidele Olaseni, OL, Utah (England)
Thomas Yassmin, TE, Utah (Australia)
Misiona Aiolupotea-Pei, DL, Washington St. (Australia)
Frederick Mauigoa, OL, Washington St. (American Samoa)

SEC – 3
Josh Growden, P, LSU (Australia)
Franklin Agbasimere, LB, Missouri (Nigeria)
Mohamed Diallo, OL, Texas A&M (Canada)

Independents – 7
Miguel Provencio, TE, New Mexico State (Mexico)
Samuel Emilus, WR, UMass (Quebec, Canada)
Tyris LeBeau, S, UMass (Canada)
John Kourtis, OL, Liberty (Canada)
Ralfs Rusins, DL, Liberty (Latvia)
Danny Jones, P, BYU (Australia)
Motekiai Langi, DL, BYU (Tonga)

American – 17
Chris Ferguston, OT, Cincinnati (Bahamas)
Bruno Labelle, TE, Cincinnati (Quebec, Canada)
Lorenz Metz, DT, Cincinnati (Germany)
James Smith, P, Cincinnati (Australia)
Kevens Clercius, WR, UConn (Quebec, Canada)
Terrence Ganyi, LB, UConn (Quebec, Canada)
Luke Magliozzi, P, UConn (Australia)
Lwal Uguak, DE, UConn (Canada)
Jack Zergiotis, QB, UConn (Quebec, Canada)
Olivier Charles-Pierre, DE, Houston (Quebec, Canada)
Dane Roy, P, Houston (Australia)
Jamie Sackville, P, SMU (Australia)
Trent Schneider, P, South Florida (Australia)
Oskar Andersson, OL, Temple (Sweden)
Isaac Moore, OL, Temple (Sweden)
Victor Stoffel, OL, Temple (Sweden)
Nick Toppino, WR, Tulane (Japan)

Conference USA – 5
Frederik Antoine, WR, Old Dominion (Quebec, Canada)
Max Buckingham, OL, UTEP (American Samoa)
Mitchell Crawford, P, UTEP (Australia)
Lucas Dean, P, UTSA (Australia)
John Haggerty, P, Western Kentucky (Australia)

Mid-American – 17
Julien Bourassa, TE, Buffalo (Quebec, Canada)
Cole Burniston, TE, Buffalo (Canada)
Tomas Jack-Kurdyla, DE, Buffalo (Quebec, Canada)
Dominic Johnson, QB, Buffalo (Canada)
Dev Lamour, FS, Buffalo (Quebec, Canada)
Gabe Wallace, OT, Buffalo (Canada)
Fabian Weltz, LB, Buffalo (Germany)
Albert Jespersen, DL, Central Michigan (Denmark)
Berenard Raimann, TE, Central Michigan (Austria)
Oge Udeogu, OL, Central Michigan (Nigeria)
Jake Julien, P, Eastern Michigan (Canada)
Thomas Odukoya, TE, Eastern Michigan (Netherlands)
Yannik Rohrschneider, OL, Eastern Michigan (Germany)
Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan (Quebec, Canada)
Thomas Aronokhale, OL, Ohio (Austria)
Denzel Daxon, DL, Ohio (Bahamas)
Bailey Flint, P, Toledo (Australia)

Mountain West – 26
Isaiah Bagnah, LB, Boise State (Canada)
Jan-Phillip Bombek, DE, Colorado State (Germany)
Marc-David Bien-Aime, OL, Fresno State (Quebec, Canada)
Dontae Bull, OL, Fresno State (Canada)
Alex Dumais, OL, Fresno State (Quebec, Canada)
Steven Fiso, ATH, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Stan Gaudion, P, Hawaii (Australia)
Max Hendrie, DL, Hawaii (Australia)
Tauivi Ho Ching, LB, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Nick Mardner, WR, Hawaii (Canada)
Ryan Meskell, K, Hawaii (Australia)
Eperone Moananu, DT, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Penei Pavihi, LB, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Jeremiah Pritchard, LB, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Scheyenne Sanitoa, LB, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Ben Scruton, DB, Hawaii (Australia)
Alesana Sunia, DL, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Blessman Ta’ala, NT, Hawaii (American Samoa)
Tyson Dyer, P, New Mexico (Australia)
Ladji Bagayoko, OL, San Diego State (Quebec, Canada)
Lasse Engel, DB, San Diego State (Germany)
Delon Jemmott, DL, San Diego State (Canada)
Daniel Okpoko, DL, San Diego State (Canada)
Samir El Negro, OL, San Jose State (Italy)
Lando Grey, DL, San Jose State (American Samoa)
Duane Tuitasi, DL, San Jose State (Australia)

Sun Belt – 6
Xavier Subotsch, P, Appalachian State (Australia)
Aaron Donkor, DL, Arkansas State (Germany)
Alex Roberts, RB, Arkansas State (Japan)
Enock Makonzo, DB, Coastal Carolina (Quebec, Canada)
Oliver Holdenson, P, Georgia State (Australia)
Rhys Byrns, P, Louisiana (Australia)

Australian punters – Texas, Oklahoma State, LSU, Cal, Colorado (PK), USC, Utah, Washington, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Miami, NC State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, SMU, South Florida, UTEP, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Hawaii, New Mexico, Toledo, Appalachian State and Georgia State.

Link
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/hm...erm=hmkw7c

Puerto Rico and American Samoa should be ok

And we're off to the races!!

GREENVILLE, N.C. (WITN) - Mike Houston and his ECU football program entered the first phase of the NCAA’s summer access plan Monday. This means workouts are now mandatory.

Houston spoke with WITN Sports Monday afternoon and said he is controlling what he can control.

“What tomorrow looks like? Who knows. With this whole deal it just remains so fluid. We are planning, and we are hopeful and we are optimistic that we are going to play on August 29th. All of our game plan workout, our calendars and all that stuff; we’ve geared everything around us playing a ball game in Dowdy-Ficklen that Saturday. So hopefully that’s what happens.”

In fact, Monday, July 6 marks the first day of mandatory activities for Pirate football. That means the voluntary workout period is officially over. This new period is being called ‘Summer Access I’ by the NCAA. During this two-week stretch, teams can lift, run and meet for up to eight hours each week.

Then on July 17, ‘Summer Access II’ will begin. This period is basically walk-through week, where hours increase from 8 to 20 for the student-athletes.

As of right now, fall camp is slated to begin on July 29.

Houston said his program has only encountered one positive COVID-19 test thus far. He said that student-athlete is already wrapping up his quarantine.

But to keep all of his players and staff safe, Houston and his coaching staff have instituted several social distancing measures, including the use of five separate locker rooms, and only allowing 10 players to workout inside the weight room at one time.

The reason ‘Summer Access I’ begins this Monday for ECU football is because the Pirates are suppose to to play Week 0 against Marshall. The rest of the FBS will start its mandatory workouts next Monday.

Link: ECU Football Enters First Phase of NCAA's Summer Access Plan

Here in Kentucky our Governor is going to add additional restrictions today. It’s all about control and compliance here now. We are expecting a mask mandate, travel restrictions and more.

It’s sad what politicians are willing to do to control their sheeple.

(07-02-2020 02:43 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  I just posted that the CDC, has subtly punted on slowing or containing the virus. and that herd immunity or waiting for a vaccine are the only 2 real options left. Because of everything you said in your second paragraph. I know in Georgia the cases are rising, however the death rate is falling.

There is, however, often a two week lag between infection and mortality.

In places that were allowing Covid19 to primarily run through nursing homes killing off elderly people in large numbers, the death rate per case (CFR) will decline from an elevated level to a normal level, but it's not like it's going to keep on dropping once it reaches a normal level ... and from that point it will track the case rate with a one to three week lag.

Quote: ... meaning more healthy people are getting the virus and recovering.

... and it remains the case that for people outside of high risk groups, the number of people at risk of death is substantially greater than the number likely to die if there is adequate care available.

One thing that happens when the ICU capacity is used up is they tend to triage patients so that younger patients more likely to recover get the ICU facilities. So the numbers still show older people dying at higher rates than younger people, but more and more of those older people are people who would have recovered if adequate care was available ... and if it had been a lottery draw rather than triage, the CFR by age would have been much closer together.

Meanwhile in Europe, where most of our Covid19 infections originated from, the UK has the currently most severe epidemic in Europe and is at 829 new cases per day, 13 per million, and France, Germany, Italy, Spain are all lower than that, while the US is at about 50,000 per day over the past week, 150 per million and trending up.

(07-09-2020 04:44 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-02-2020 02:43 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  I just posted that the CDC, has subtly punted on slowing or containing the virus. and that herd immunity or waiting for a vaccine are the only 2 real options left. Because of everything you said in your second paragraph. I know in Georgia the cases are rising, however the death rate is falling.

There is, however, often a two week lag between infection and mortality.

In places that were allowing Covid19 to primarily run through nursing homes killing off elderly people in large numbers, the death rate per case (CFR) will decline from an elevated level to a normal level, but it's not like it's going to keep on dropping once it reaches a normal level ... and from that point it will track the case rate with a one to three week lag.

Quote: ... meaning more healthy people are getting the virus and recovering.

... and it remains the case that for people outside of high risk groups, the number of people at risk of death is substantially greater than the number likely to die if there is adequate care available.

One thing that happens when the ICU capacity is used up is they tend to triage patients so that younger patients more likely to recover get the ICU facilities. So the numbers still show older people dying at higher rates than younger people, but more and more of those older people are people who would have recovered if adequate care was available ... and if it had been a lottery draw rather than triage, the CFR by age would have been much closer together.

Meanwhile in Europe, where most of our Covid19 infections originated from, the UK has the currently most severe epidemic in Europe and is at 829 new cases per day, 13 per million, and France, Germany, Italy, Spain are all lower than that, while the US is at about 50,000 per day over the past week, 150 per million and trending up.

Yeah! We're Number One! Who said Trump wouldn't make America great again?

The P5 leagues will need to make a decision about 4 weeks out from kickoff. Lots of moving parts...but with reduced capacity...it should be easier. Remember lots of students, staff and volunteers need to be scheduled along with food, cops, etc...I could see about August 5-7th as D-Day.

I think with the latest wave of cases even the SEC will look at 25% or less capacity. I predict lots of pissed off STHers and high maintenance donors.

Speaking of donors...the worst ones to work with are the sonewhat large donors...they think $1000 a year should get them everything.