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Is it crazy to suggest that C-USA/SBC members might buy the MEAC shell?
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chargeradio Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Is it crazy to suggest that C-USA/SBC members might buy the MEAC shell?
C-USA is a little more "eastern heavy" which is why it makes sense for there to be a MEAC invasion. It won't work, though, if they skip over the Sun Belt schools in their footprint: Georgia State, Georgia Southern, App State, and Coastal Carolina.

The remainder of C-USA runs basically from I-25 in El Paso to I-65 in Birmingham/Bowling Green (Murfreesboro is slightly east of I-65, but basically they are in the corridor). The best candidates for them also fall in the footprint:
  • Texas State (SBC)
  • Louisiana (SBC)
  • New Mexico State (Independent)
  • South Alabama (SBC)
  • Arkansas State (SBC)
I don't see them taking any FCS upgrades, unless if C-USA wants Arkansas State and Missouri State - even then, both would lose having non-football UALR as a conference mate, so the Sun Belt may still be more appealing. I would expect Texas State to get the nod for #10. C-USA remains in divisions for football:

West: UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Texas State
East: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, UAB, MTSU, WKU

The Sun Belt - now down to 5 members in football - has to at least add 3 members to survive. I expect them to try to build around the Ark-La-Tex remnant by raiding the Southland. Missouri State and Eastern Kentucky would also be under consideration, but they may not take the invitation.

West: SHSU, SFASU, Lamar, NMSU, UTRGV, UT-Arlington*
East: Troy, USA, ULM, Arkansas State, Missouri State, UALR*
(*non-football)

It's possible that UT-Arlington might add football before UTRGV, but unless if Little Rock departs I see the Sun Belt admitting UTRGV. This consolidates the remaining Texas public Division I schools into FBS conferences, with the exception of Tarleton State, who joins the Southland.

The WAC then has one last opportunity for survival, and that is a mass re-configure with the Big Sky:

Big Sky: Seattle*, EWU, Portland State, Idaho, Idaho State, Montana, Montana State, Utah Valley*, UC Davis (FCS football only)
WAC: Sacramento State, Cal Baptist*, GCU*, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah, Dixie State, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly (FCS football only)

Essentially acting as divisions of a 14-team FCS conference, both conferences play each other for the bulk of their non-conference games.
07-03-2020 06:50 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Is it crazy to suggest that C-USA/SBC members might buy the MEAC shell?
Maker and Bronny are going to save the MEAC!


07-03-2020 08:01 PM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Is it crazy to suggest that C-USA/SBC members might buy the MEAC shell?
Let's say that five eastern C-USA schools (FIU, FAU, Charlotte, ODU, and Marshall), four eastern Sun Belt schools (Ga. Southern, Ga. State, Coastal Carolina, and App State), and JMU get the green light from the NCAA/P5/whatever to take over the "shell" of the MEAC and start a new FBS league, keeping the MEAC's autobid.

What I believe will NOT happen with the schools left behind in C-USA and the SB a smart, sensible rearrangement between the remaining 15 SB and C-USA schools. It would just be too easy to expect one conference comprised of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama schools, and another comprised of Texas and Louisiana schools to emerge, with Ark State and S. Miss able to go either way. Both new regional leagues would fill out with a few FCS schools. Unlike today, the average college football fan would be able to figure out as easily which schools are in which G5 league as they do with the MAC and MW, and travel savings and regional rivalries would be had by all.

No. This is what is way more likely to happen as a result of the new ten-school, east coast league:

- C-USA invites only one remaining Sun Belt school and stops at 10. I'm gonna say that school is Louisiana because they have one of the strongest all around SB athletic programs.

New C-USA East: WKU, MTSU, UAB, S. Miss, Louisiana
New C-USA West: LT, Rice, UTSA, UNT, UTEP

- Sun Belt is left scrambling.

First thing they do is extend an all-sports invitation to NMSU, who I believe would accept because they just have to get out of the WAC. Next they invite UConn and UMass for football only, and hope they say yes. (Maybe they ask Libertt, too, but I think Liberty would say no.)

With NMSU and possibly UConn and/or UMass in tow, the Sun Belt now has 6-8 football members and 2 additional non football members (UTA and Little Rock). Next, the SB would need to add anywhere from 2-4 more full members. They'd throw out feelers forJacksonville State, Chattanooga, Missouri State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State, and anyone else from FCS that's at all in the southern half of the United States.

Example result:

New Sun Belt East: UMass (FB only), Jacksonville State, Troy, South Alabama, Missouri State

New Sun Belt West: Arkansas State, ULM, Texas State, Sam Houston State, New Mexico State

Non-football members: Little Rock and UTA

This is NOT what I **want** to happen for the Sun Belt. It's just what I think is the most *likely* outcome of a a new G5 league in the eastern US.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2020 09:37 PM by Michael in Raleigh.)
07-03-2020 09:36 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Is it crazy to suggest that C-USA/SBC members might buy the MEAC shell?
(07-03-2020 02:36 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 02:24 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 12:32 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  No league is going to bring in a bunch of call-ups who will not add value to the conference and further dilute the share of tv revenue, so this “buying the MEAC shell” garbage is just that. Pure detritus.

What does the one have to do with the other?

The "buying the MEAC shell" has to be a minimum of 8 FBS schools, and for the minimum 8 you would have to check whether they meet the FBS definition of eight core members. 9 would allow them to invite JMU up for a 10th.

It would have to be eight to ten that want to be together. Schools don't want to be associated with Liberty, so Liberty is not part of the scenario, lawyers or not ... if they get a landing spot it's because of the remainder of schools left behind in a conference flailing to make up the numbers when the FCS cupboard is substantially bare.
Really? It has everything to do with it. The title of this thread suggests that CUSA/SBC members would want to split away and join with Morgan State ant three other fcs teams.

Except that's not what "buying a shell" means. It's not buying the MEAC "shell" if there are still incumbent schools in it.

You are shooting down shooting down what is NOT referred to by the title.

The suggestion that incumbent MEAC members would remain in has been made, but it would indeed kill the move. The point for the "left-behind" MEAC schools would be to monetize the grace period of NCAA autobid status before it evaporates and they have to drop down to Div2 anyway. That's why if there was enough pushback from the affected FCS and Go5 conferences to convince the NCAA to kill it, adding a modest amount of incumbent membership would likely be enough to kill it. If they want to go through this, they need to make sure that ESPN, the P5, and the non-affected Go5 conferences won't object. If they are on the sideline, it's not likely that CUSA and the Sunbelt on their own carry enough clout to derail it.

So for the "South Atlantic Conference" {"SAC! SAC! SAC!"}, Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, FIU and FAI with App State, Coastal, Georgia State and Georgia Southern for a conference with FBS status and invite JMU up. (JMU being part of the move from the outset is a moot point, they can't invite JMU until they are an FBS conference).

Conference USA is left with WKU, MTSU, UAB, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Rice, and UTEP.

The Sunbelt is left with Troy, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, Texas State, and non-FB UTA & Little Rock.

If they play traditional realignment games, the Sunbelt is now in the weaker position, so Conference USA raids the Sunbelt because it can, plucks Texas State, Arkansas State, ought to take Louisiana but LA Tech objects so they take USM to go to two six school divisions.

Sure if you want to cut travel costs you could pool those 15 FB schools, add NMSU as a true travel partner for UTEP, and draw a line in the middle, but that seems too sensible for college football.

But suppose that the concern about travel cost is the level of a single school? Suppose UAB looks at that map and bolts? Then the Sunbelt gets back to eight with an invite of NMSU, and we have the messy overlapping result of:

CUSA: WKU, MTSU, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Rice, and UTEP.

Sunbelt: Troy, UAB, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, Texas State, and non-FB UTA & Little Rock.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2020 04:33 AM by BruceMcF.)
07-04-2020 04:31 AM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Is it crazy to suggest that C-USA/SBC members might buy the MEAC shell?
The Sun Belt, rather than C-USA is the league that needs to be on high alert if this "new MEAC" or whatever new east coast G5 league were ever to come to fruition.

While the Sun Belt arguably has the upper hand right now (dividing football revenue by 10 instead of 14, finishing higher in CFP rankings and getting more cash because of it, having a team finish in the top 25 in '19 and immediately outside of it in '18, having games on ESPN networks instead of Facebook and Tik-Tok, etc.), C-USA has strength in numbers when it comes to realignment.

In my scenario of FIU, FAU, GS, GSU, CCU, CLT, App, ODU, JMU, and MU going to the new east coast conference, C-USA still has 9 schools left, while the SB drops to 6. C-USA would only have to add one school to retain the CCG, and it would almost certainly come from the SB. That school would almost surely go to escape a rapidly deteriorating conference. And of course, with C-USA having the upper hand, they could add three SB schools if they want; I doubt they'd go all the way back up to 14.

So, if my east coast conference actually got off the ground, the SB could potentially be down to three.

All this is just message board fodder right now, but it isn't impossible. The Sun Belt, having only 10 members, would be vulnerable in any realignment scenario, be it a new east coast league or trickle down from a P5 raid of the Big 12. Out of a sense of due diligence, shouldn't they start looking at potential new members now to protect their own futures? In the event of a bad raid on the league, I think they cast the net wide. Offer UConn and UMass football-only membership. Take NMSU in full time. Offer Liberty, who i think would say no, but you have to ask in that position. Then it's looking at all the FCS programs in the region who have some sort of pulse: Chattanooga, McNeese State, Missouri State, Sam Houston State, etc.

Makes me wonder if the Sun Belt has weighed the pros and cons of expansion in the next few years, before the Big 12 GOR expires, to soften the blow of future raids.
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