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Mid Major Pecking Order
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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Post: #221
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-07-2020 07:12 PM)Shox Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 09:07 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 07:22 PM)dirtyjersey Wrote:  Much has been made about the pecking order of the P5 schools but what about the low to mid major conferences?

Obviously, the MEAC, WAC, and ASUN are at or near the bottom, CAA and MVC make up the middle and the WCC, MWC and American are at the top but where do all the other conferences fit in? What factors go into determining this? Is it purely performance based?

It’s region/sport-dependent. It can also be academics-dependent (IVY, Patriot, America East, Big West).

For midwestern football, the MAC’s on top because it’s the only conference with FBS access.

For midwestern basketball, everyone has equal access and there’s no academic-oriented leagues, so it comes down more to performance.

MVC > MAC > Horizon > OVC > Summit

Now, the Summit may outperform the Horizon, but the Horizon’s higher in the pecking order because it’s poached 3 teams recently (Oakland/IUPUI/Ft Wayne) from the Summit, thereby establishing a higher position of leverage.

In the Midwest the Summit is clearly on the upswing. Once Murray goes to the MVC I would rate them MVC>MAC>Horizon>Summit>OVC

In the South, I think it goes SoCon>C-USA>Sun Belt>Big South>Southland>OVC>ASUN>SWAC>MEAC...

Of course that covers a ton of territory, ranging from Delaware State to UTEP... the "South" is really broad.
07-07-2020 07:58 PM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #222
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-06-2020 09:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  In my mind, the Big East and college football’s P5 are #1-6.

The AAC is 7th and A10 is 8th. This is a real gray area. I tend to think of the AAC as the bottom of the top and the A10 as the top of the middle.

Beyond that you have to ask of the rest of the conferences these 2 questions:

In the past 20 yrs are you averaging more than 1.20 bids per year? If yes, you are a mid major.

If, no what is the average seed you’ve received in that 20 yr span? These are your low majors and you can rank them based on their average seed.

I haven't looked at 20 years, but for the 1-8 seeds (that is, the ones bracketed as the favored team in their first game), for the last 5 years:

19.4% were from the ACC
15.6% were from the Big 10
15.0% were from the Big 12
13.1% were from the SEC
10.6% were from the Big East
8.8% were from the PAC-12
6.3% were from the AAC
3.8% were from the A10
3.1% were from the MWC
2.5% were from the WCC
0.6% each were from the MAC, MVC and Southern

That's another indication of the source of the notion that the Big East is "in amongst" the P5 and the AAC really isn't quite there, but also that the AAC is appreciably closer than the other three multi-bid conferences below the P5.

Note that I used current membership, rather than membership at the time, but that only affects one appearance (Wichita State 2015) ... on membership at the time, the AAC would be 5.6% and the MVC 1.3%.

This can also be adjusted on a "percentage of high seeds per school" basis to adjust for conference size:

1.50% per Big 12 school
----------------------------------------
1.38% per ACC school (-0.22%)
----------------------------------------
1.12% per Big 10 school (-0.26%)
1.06% per Big East school (-0.06%)
0.94% per SEC school (-0.12%)
----------------------------------------
0.73% per PAC-12 school (-0.21%)
----------------------------------------
0.52% per AAC school (-0.21%)
----------------------------------------
0.27% per A10 school (-0.25%)
0.26% per MWC school (-0.01%)
0.25% per WCC school (-0.01%)
----------------------------------------
0.06% each per MVC or SoCon school (-0.19%)
0.05% per MAC school (-0.01)

In terms of implicit grouping analysis, the 0.19% break between the WCC and the three conferences with a single high bid over five years has got to be respected as a category break, and then that implies the breaks as shown. If you cannot have a group of 1, then the Big12 and ACC are your High Majors, the Big 10, Big East and SEC your Majors, the A10, MWC, WCC your High Mid Majors, and what you want to do with your ...

High Majors / Majors / PAC-12 / AAC / High Mid-Majors / Mid-Majors

... is entirely arbitrary, the AAC and Pac-12 are basically fairly evenly spaced between the High Mid Majors and the Majors.

The grouping analysis would be much easier if the PAC-12 would get its sh!t together, because then the AAC could be classified in it's own "Tweener Major" group.

OK, then that's Basketball done. Is Hockey next?

Oh, wait, you want a proportional implicit grouping, not an additive one? OK, the next one down as a percent of the one in front of it:

1.50% per Big 12 school
1.38% per ACC school (92%)
1.12% per Big 10 school (81%)
1.06% per Big East school (95%)
0.94% per SEC school (87%)
----------------------------------------
0.73% per PAC-12 school (76%)
----------------------------------------
0.52% per AAC school (71%)
----------------------------------------
0.27% per A10 school (52%)
0.26% per MWC school (96%)
0.25% per WCC school (96%)
----------------------------------------
0.063% each per MVC or SoCon school (24%)
0.052% per MAC school (83%)

Setting the split at 80% or lower yields the above splits, where the Big12, ACC, Big Ten, Big East and SEC are High Majors, PAC-12 is a Major, AAC is whatever you want to call it, A10, MWC and WCC are High Mid-Majors and then you get into the ranks of the regular Mid-Majors where favored seeds are so rare that it's not of much use ranking them.
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 02:31 AM by BruceMcF.)
07-08-2020 01:49 AM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #223
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
Mid-Major was a term coined strictly for basketball in 1977. Long before the idiocy of conference realignment. It was never intended to be about football.
07-08-2020 05:24 AM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #224
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 05:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Mid-Major was a term coined strictly for basketball in 1977.
Quite true. I've said this repeatedly up above, though without the benefit of the exact year it was coined, I said "in the 80s".

Quote: Long before the idiocy of conference realignment.

Hahahahahahahah. Good one. "The SEC was established on December 8 and 9, 1932, when the thirteen members of the Southern Conference located west and south of the Appalachian Mountains left to form their own conference." 1932<1977.

Quote: It was never intended to be about football.

Also undoubtedly true. But of course, it's only dead languages that stop changing ... living languages keep evolving.
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 05:39 AM by BruceMcF.)
07-08-2020 05:36 AM
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Tigersmoke4 Offline
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Post: #225
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-07-2020 05:34 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 07:57 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 03:23 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 02:55 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The problem is salaries have become so high in Division I basketball that its created five or six levels in the sport.

5 million to 10 million
2.5 million to 5 million
1.25 million to 2.5 million
625,000 to 1.25 million
312,500 to 625,000
Below 312,000

Very few coaches are being paid 10 million however the high number is forcing other big time programs to pay around 5 million to stay within a standard deviation of what the very top ones are playing. Likewise as you move down the chain. Coaches are being paid 2.5 million in the Top 40 to stay reasonably competitive with the guys making 5 million.

The A10 as we know is a solid Top 10 basketball conference their coaches are essentially all in that 625,000 to 1.25 million range. They are like 4 levels down from the elite so if a P5 comes calling they are done.

https://www.basketballforum.com/threads/...es.622409/

AD's for years now are trying to pump the breaks on escalating salaries and by doing so it forces programs down into a lower tier. The income steams are just not there to push forward to salaries of 5, 6, 7 million dollars.

The flip side is that any D1 head coach has to have quality credentials and a conference like the A10 will be hire in coaches for 600k-700k that are the very best from smaller conferences.

That is why I think there is big drop off in NBA talent within the AAC; they don't pay enough to have the best recruiters in the country. Assistant pay is accordingly also lower.

Now this seems a very fair point you make:

That is why I think there is big drop off in NBA talent within the AAC; they don't pay enough to have the best recruiters in the country. Assistant pay is accordingly also lower.

And your salary tiers seem accurate at quick glance.

Memphis is different animal regarding AAC hoops. The school has shown a willingness and ability to pay coaches. Obviously, UofM can't pay $5 million or more per year. But the school has paid $3M annually for a football coach and could likely pay $4 million for the right hoops coach.

That's not "elite" coaches pay, I admit. But it ain't peanuts either.

You can still get an experienced D1 coach or big time recruiter for 600k-700k so I don't see the point of eating into revenues with a 3 million a year kind of guy.

Salaries are important and also where a program ranks within its conference. Memphis as one of the top programs in the AAC helps to attract better players because they know they are going to win there.

So its not sometimes about competing in the strongest possible basketball conference on average but finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year. How competitive would Memphis basketball be in a conference like the ACC for example?


Memphis likely would struggle a bit in the ACC. The program would be fortunate to finish in the top five, say, one of every three years.

I agree with you regarding the "finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year" comment. Memphis (and Cincy, too) is in a conference for which it is well suited to be competitive. The problem is that the AAC has so underachieved in men's hoops, thus casting a somewhat negative net collectively on the seven major to high-major programs in the league (UC, UM, Houston, Temple, Wichita, Tulsa and SMU).

You make some good points.
Always an interesting discussion...what should be weighted more potential vs. achievement? Arguments can be made for both sides. It would be a sign of hard times if Memphis regressed 15 years (ball parking) paying less than $1M for a head coach. That would be inarguably mid major territory and a situation where boosters have fallen off the face of the earth. Neither seems likely...the ACC or Memphis having to skimp on salaries. Had Tubby worked out out, he’d have been in the top 15 pay for 2020...Penny’s new contract should be within ballpark. Hard to imagine Memphis not keeping up given current metrics...though we are admittedly in unprecedented times.

I think Louisville is a good indicator of how successful Memphis could've been in the ACC. Those to programs were neck and neck really mirrored each other in a lot of ways throughout their histories. Two bad coaching hires have undoubtedly knocked them down a bit but as major programs have been known to do,we are once again on the way back and getting the type of players that will make the resurgence possible. All crystal ball predictions are indicating Cisse atop ten 6"11" center is flipping from LSU to Memphis to go along with a team of all 4* player.On another note, would Calipari have left Memphis it they would have gained entry into the ACC at the time. At which point all bets would've been off.04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 07:08 AM by Tigersmoke4.)
07-08-2020 07:04 AM
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Post: #226
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
I have been to both Louisville and Memphis and to me different appeals.

Louisville appeal seems like a Portland. Its a little NYC for Kentucky and I ran into people from Chicago working there just as a different place to go. Its small enough that if you live in the right place you don't need a car but big enough to have most things that you need. Horse racing culture brings people in from the bigger metros.

Memphis is a logistics town, the main city in 200 mile radius so its regional importance is really high, not to mention the cultural history of the city. For recruiting then it gives a wide radius. Football is hurt by not playing in a power conference but they could easily go head to head with Arkansas and Mississippi in recruiting in a P5.

Louisville is a much better fit for the ACC as it draws outsiders while Memphis is better for the XII because it cuts into SEC territory. The XII really could use some metro schools to look more like the ACC in terms of makeup.
07-08-2020 07:46 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #227
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 07:46 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I have been to both Louisville and Memphis and to me different appeals.

Louisville appeal seems like a Portland. Its a little NYC for Kentucky and I ran into people from Chicago working there just as a different place to go. Its small enough that if you live in the right place you don't need a car but big enough to have most things that you need. Horse racing culture brings people in from the bigger metros.

Memphis is a logistics town, the main city in 200 mile radius so its regional importance is really high, not to mention the cultural history of the city. For recruiting then it gives a wide radius. Football is hurt by not playing in a power conference but they could easily go head to head with Arkansas and Mississippi in recruiting in a P5.

Louisville is a much better fit for the ACC as it draws outsiders while Memphis is better for the XII because it cuts into SEC territory. The XII really could use some metro schools to look more like the ACC in terms of makeup.


A very solid assessment.
07-08-2020 08:19 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #228
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 07:04 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 05:34 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 07:57 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 03:23 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Now this seems a very fair point you make:

That is why I think there is big drop off in NBA talent within the AAC; they don't pay enough to have the best recruiters in the country. Assistant pay is accordingly also lower.

And your salary tiers seem accurate at quick glance.

Memphis is different animal regarding AAC hoops. The school has shown a willingness and ability to pay coaches. Obviously, UofM can't pay $5 million or more per year. But the school has paid $3M annually for a football coach and could likely pay $4 million for the right hoops coach.

That's not "elite" coaches pay, I admit. But it ain't peanuts either.

You can still get an experienced D1 coach or big time recruiter for 600k-700k so I don't see the point of eating into revenues with a 3 million a year kind of guy.

Salaries are important and also where a program ranks within its conference. Memphis as one of the top programs in the AAC helps to attract better players because they know they are going to win there.

So its not sometimes about competing in the strongest possible basketball conference on average but finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year. How competitive would Memphis basketball be in a conference like the ACC for example?


Memphis likely would struggle a bit in the ACC. The program would be fortunate to finish in the top five, say, one of every three years.

I agree with you regarding the "finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year" comment. Memphis (and Cincy, too) is in a conference for which it is well suited to be competitive. The problem is that the AAC has so underachieved in men's hoops, thus casting a somewhat negative net collectively on the seven major to high-major programs in the league (UC, UM, Houston, Temple, Wichita, Tulsa and SMU).

You make some good points.
Always an interesting discussion...what should be weighted more potential vs. achievement? Arguments can be made for both sides. It would be a sign of hard times if Memphis regressed 15 years (ball parking) paying less than $1M for a head coach. That would be inarguably mid major territory and a situation where boosters have fallen off the face of the earth. Neither seems likely...the ACC or Memphis having to skimp on salaries. Had Tubby worked out out, he’d have been in the top 15 pay for 2020...Penny’s new contract should be within ballpark. Hard to imagine Memphis not keeping up given current metrics...though we are admittedly in unprecedented times.

I think Louisville is a good indicator of how successful Memphis could've been in the ACC. Those to programs were neck and neck really mirrored each other in a lot of ways throughout their histories. Two bad coaching hires have undoubtedly knocked them down a bit but as major programs have been known to do,we are once again on the way back and getting the type of players that will make the resurgence possible. All crystal ball predictions are indicating Cisse atop ten 6"11" center is flipping from LSU to Memphis to go along with a team of all 4* player.On another note, would Calipari have left Memphis it they would have gained entry into the ACC at the time. At which point all bets would've been off.04-cheers


You just had to mention Cisse — and possibly put a curse on the Tigers.

On a serious note, I feel Cal would have left for UK regardless. It's a blueblood program.
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 08:21 AM by bill dazzle.)
07-08-2020 08:21 AM
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Tigersmoke4 Offline
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Post: #229
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 08:21 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 07:04 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 05:34 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 07:57 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  You can still get an experienced D1 coach or big time recruiter for 600k-700k so I don't see the point of eating into revenues with a 3 million a year kind of guy.

Salaries are important and also where a program ranks within its conference. Memphis as one of the top programs in the AAC helps to attract better players because they know they are going to win there.

So its not sometimes about competing in the strongest possible basketball conference on average but finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year. How competitive would Memphis basketball be in a conference like the ACC for example?


Memphis likely would struggle a bit in the ACC. The program would be fortunate to finish in the top five, say, one of every three years.

I agree with you regarding the "finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year" comment. Memphis (and Cincy, too) is in a conference for which it is well suited to be competitive. The problem is that the AAC has so underachieved in men's hoops, thus casting a somewhat negative net collectively on the seven major to high-major programs in the league (UC, UM, Houston, Temple, Wichita, Tulsa and SMU).

You make some good points.
Always an interesting discussion...what should be weighted more potential vs. achievement? Arguments can be made for both sides. It would be a sign of hard times if Memphis regressed 15 years (ball parking) paying less than $1M for a head coach. That would be inarguably mid major territory and a situation where boosters have fallen off the face of the earth. Neither seems likely...the ACC or Memphis having to skimp on salaries. Had Tubby worked out out, he’d have been in the top 15 pay for 2020...Penny’s new contract should be within ballpark. Hard to imagine Memphis not keeping up given current metrics...though we are admittedly in unprecedented times.

I think Louisville is a good indicator of how successful Memphis could've been in the ACC. Those to programs were neck and neck really mirrored each other in a lot of ways throughout their histories. Two bad coaching hires have undoubtedly knocked them down a bit but as major programs have been known to do,we are once again on the way back and getting the type of players that will make the resurgence possible. All crystal ball predictions are indicating Cisse atop ten 6"11" center is flipping from LSU to Memphis to go along with a team of all 4* player.On another note, would Calipari have left Memphis it they would have gained entry into the ACC at the time. At which point all bets would've been off.04-cheers


You just had to mention Cisse — and possibly put a curse on the Tigers.

On a serious note, I feel Cal would have left for UK regardless. It's a blueblood program.

You know I had the same thought about Cisse after I posted it. LOLOL. As far as Calipari you are probably right. 04-cheers04-cheers
07-08-2020 10:27 AM
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Post: #230
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 07:46 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I have been to both Louisville and Memphis and to me different appeals.

Louisville appeal seems like a Portland. Its a little NYC for Kentucky and I ran into people from Chicago working there just as a different place to go. Its small enough that if you live in the right place you don't need a car but big enough to have most things that you need. Horse racing culture brings people in from the bigger metros.

Memphis is a logistics town, the main city in 200 mile radius so its regional importance is really high, not to mention the cultural history of the city. For recruiting then it gives a wide radius. Football is hurt by not playing in a power conference but they could easily go head to head with Arkansas and Mississippi in recruiting in a P5.

Louisville is a much better fit for the ACC as it draws outsiders while Memphis is better for the XII because it cuts into SEC territory. The XII really could use some metro schools to look more like the ACC in terms of makeup.

The BXII could have had those schools, including Louisville when they added WVU. The issue is the schools in the conference have a regional and cultural bias against UofL, Cincinnati and Memphis (regionalism not so much with Memphis).
07-08-2020 10:32 AM
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Post: #231
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 10:27 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 08:21 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 07:04 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 05:34 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Memphis likely would struggle a bit in the ACC. The program would be fortunate to finish in the top five, say, one of every three years.

I agree with you regarding the "finding a conference fit that will keep you in the Top 2 or 3 programs every year" comment. Memphis (and Cincy, too) is in a conference for which it is well suited to be competitive. The problem is that the AAC has so underachieved in men's hoops, thus casting a somewhat negative net collectively on the seven major to high-major programs in the league (UC, UM, Houston, Temple, Wichita, Tulsa and SMU).

You make some good points.
Always an interesting discussion...what should be weighted more potential vs. achievement? Arguments can be made for both sides. It would be a sign of hard times if Memphis regressed 15 years (ball parking) paying less than $1M for a head coach. That would be inarguably mid major territory and a situation where boosters have fallen off the face of the earth. Neither seems likely...the ACC or Memphis having to skimp on salaries. Had Tubby worked out out, he’d have been in the top 15 pay for 2020...Penny’s new contract should be within ballpark. Hard to imagine Memphis not keeping up given current metrics...though we are admittedly in unprecedented times.

I think Louisville is a good indicator of how successful Memphis could've been in the ACC. Those to programs were neck and neck really mirrored each other in a lot of ways throughout their histories. Two bad coaching hires have undoubtedly knocked them down a bit but as major programs have been known to do,we are once again on the way back and getting the type of players that will make the resurgence possible. All crystal ball predictions are indicating Cisse atop ten 6"11" center is flipping from LSU to Memphis to go along with a team of all 4* player.On another note, would Calipari have left Memphis it they would have gained entry into the ACC at the time. At which point all bets would've been off.04-cheers


You just had to mention Cisse — and possibly put a curse on the Tigers.

On a serious note, I feel Cal would have left for UK regardless. It's a blueblood program.

You know I had the same thought about Cisse after I posted it. LOLOL. As far as Calipari you are probably right. 04-cheers04-cheers

04-cheers
07-08-2020 11:24 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #232
RE: Mid Major Pecking Order
(07-08-2020 10:32 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 07:46 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I have been to both Louisville and Memphis and to me different appeals.

Louisville appeal seems like a Portland. Its a little NYC for Kentucky and I ran into people from Chicago working there just as a different place to go. Its small enough that if you live in the right place you don't need a car but big enough to have most things that you need. Horse racing culture brings people in from the bigger metros.

Memphis is a logistics town, the main city in 200 mile radius so its regional importance is really high, not to mention the cultural history of the city. For recruiting then it gives a wide radius. Football is hurt by not playing in a power conference but they could easily go head to head with Arkansas and Mississippi in recruiting in a P5.

Louisville is a much better fit for the ACC as it draws outsiders while Memphis is better for the XII because it cuts into SEC territory. The XII really could use some metro schools to look more like the ACC in terms of makeup.

The BXII could have had those schools, including Louisville when they added WVU. The issue is the schools in the conference have a regional and cultural bias against UofL, Cincinnati and Memphis (regionalism not so much with Memphis).


Many folks (including some in the media) clearly have a "cultural bias" toward UofL, UC, Memphis, Houston, Temple, UAB, Charlotte, etc. — i.e., large public "city" universities located in large cities (Minnesota, Washington, NCState, Ohio State, etc., are "state" universities located in large cities).

Seems the bottom line is that no P5 league is interested in having as a member a public "urban" university with a rather high acceptance rate and non-statewide fan following. Louisville in the ACC is the exception.

Cincy and Memphis are likely "secure" in the AAC for years to come, so let's make the best of it.
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 11:33 AM by bill dazzle.)
07-08-2020 11:31 AM
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