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Poll: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026? NOTE: You can vote for more than one option.
ACC will gain/lose teams
B1G will gain/lose teams
Big-12 will gain/lose teams
PAC-12 will gain/lose teams
SEC will gain/lose teams
No P5 teams will realign.
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Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
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Thiefery Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 03:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Big 12 had revenue sharing half equal and half on TV appearances in order to stimulate good performance.

Despite how much they got bashed, their revenue sharing was significantly more equal than that of the Pac 10 or Big East. USC or Miami could make several times what the bottom member of the conference made, whereas in the Big 12, it was only about 50% from bottom to top (i.e. 7 or 8 million vs. 11 or 12 million) I remember one year where USC got 7.5 million and Washington St. got 2.5 million from the conference.

That's a fair model looking back at it now. I don't think the Big 12 would go back to it while UT and ou have it's solid tier 3 deals. However once the conference makes a tier 3 joint deal, I could see them rehash this concept again.
07-02-2020 09:38 PM
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cubucks Online
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Post: #42
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-30-2020 08:05 PM)cubucks Wrote:  From Iowa and probably coming to a school near you!


Quote:Gary Barta, director of athletics for the program, said that the budget would be cut by around $15 million, setting it for around $112.5 million. The difference is made up of around $13 million in reduced operating expenses, with the rest being adjustments to pay.

Projections for the coming fiscal year are based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance. If those seasons, which generate significant revenue for the program, are disrupted, then further cuts would be needed, Barta said.

“The pandemic has dealt us a financial situation that requires difficult decisions,” Barta said, in a statement. “It is our responsibility to maintain a fiscally responsible operation while providing the highest level of service to our student-athletes.”

https://www.kcrg.com/2020/06/30/universi...hes-staff/

Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will be made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.
(This post was last modified: 07-02-2020 10:33 PM by cubucks.)
07-02-2020 10:26 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-30-2020 08:05 PM)cubucks Wrote:  From Iowa and probably coming to a school near you!


Quote:Gary Barta, director of athletics for the program, said that the budget would be cut by around $15 million, setting it for around $112.5 million. The difference is made up of around $13 million in reduced operating expenses, with the rest being adjustments to pay.

Projections for the coming fiscal year are based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance. If those seasons, which generate significant revenue for the program, are disrupted, then further cuts would be needed, Barta said.

“The pandemic has dealt us a financial situation that requires difficult decisions,” Barta said, in a statement. “It is our responsibility to maintain a fiscally responsible operation while providing the highest level of service to our student-athletes.”

https://www.kcrg.com/2020/06/30/universi...hes-staff/

Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
(This post was last modified: 07-02-2020 10:38 PM by JRsec.)
07-02-2020 10:35 PM
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cubucks Online
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Post: #44
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-30-2020 08:05 PM)cubucks Wrote:  From Iowa and probably coming to a school near you!


Quote:Gary Barta, director of athletics for the program, said that the budget would be cut by around $15 million, setting it for around $112.5 million. The difference is made up of around $13 million in reduced operating expenses, with the rest being adjustments to pay.

Projections for the coming fiscal year are based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance. If those seasons, which generate significant revenue for the program, are disrupted, then further cuts would be needed, Barta said.

“The pandemic has dealt us a financial situation that requires difficult decisions,” Barta said, in a statement. “It is our responsibility to maintain a fiscally responsible operation while providing the highest level of service to our student-athletes.”

https://www.kcrg.com/2020/06/30/universi...hes-staff/

Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?
07-02-2020 10:54 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-30-2020 08:05 PM)cubucks Wrote:  From Iowa and probably coming to a school near you!



https://www.kcrg.com/2020/06/30/universi...hes-staff/

Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!
(This post was last modified: 07-02-2020 11:10 PM by JRsec.)
07-02-2020 11:03 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

The three major components of a P5 athletic department's revenue are ticket sales, conference distribution (which is 90% media rights), and donations. Together they are somewhere between 80 and 100 percent of every P5 athletic budget. If games are played with no fans, ticket sales go from tens of millions to zero. If there are no games played (because there are too many players and coaches with the virus), the media rights also go from tens of millions to zero. Donations will be a third or less of the normal amount even with nonstop begging for boosters to donate.

Revenue could drop to close to zero while most of the annual department budget still has to be paid.

And good luck leaning on the university administration for help, because their budgets will be hammered just as badly. I'll bet there are universities that have already had lawyers analyzing the legalities of "furloughing" administrators and tenured faculty for a year, or at least cutting their pay by more than half.
07-03-2020 12:56 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(06-30-2020 12:47 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(06-30-2020 12:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 09:00 PM)cubucks Wrote:  ESPN/FOX/CBS etc... pay conferences, not individual schools, except for Notre Dame and Texas, obviously.

TV does pay conferences, for now, but it doesn't have to be that way. Before 1980, they paid the NCAA. Maybe someday in the future, TV will just pay individual schools for their home games and pay a conference only for a conference tournament or a championship game in football.

Example: If we look at the TV ratings for Ohio State football games compared to Big Ten football games that don't include Ohio State, there's no legitimate way to argue that Ohio State is worth only 1/14th of the money that ESPN and Fox pay to the Big Ten. For now, Ohio State's athletic department rakes in so much money from other sources that they live with getting only 1/14th of that money. But what happens when they have a large and unexpected shortfall of revenue (as they do in 2020) and they still have this super-high budget athletic department, 30 varsity sports, lots of highly paid head coaches, several football assistants making more than $500,000/year, etc., etc., with all of those expenses to cover? When do they say, "Ohio State wants a share of the TV money that better reflects the actual value delivered by Ohio State"?
Agreed!

That's my point of the last two posts of mine. I was rambling a bit, being stuck in a house for months will do that, lol!

Not even looking at Ohio State. Look at schools like Clemson, Florida State, USC, Oregon, Washington etc...
You think higher ups aren't getting fidgety right now? I can't even imagine the athletic shortages, add the academic losses with it and people are probably placing a lot of options on the table. Am I way off base thinking like this? I'm comparing a personal "State situation" that I know quite a bit about and trying to do an apples to apples comparison with these schools.

I never thought Anheuser-Busch would be owned by a Belgium company. When I think about it, I never thought Texas A&M would be in a different conference than Texas. Yet, there they are, in new worlds and still thriving.

Ohio State, that is something I've often thought about. Equal sharing works, it's healthy, it builds really solid relationships. It's also why I've come to hate Minnesota. To have a fanbase ***** the way they do about the hockey setup is hilarious to me. Please, Gophers, you are making a lot of money at the expense of others. Take your big paycheck and go sit down in the corner where you belong. If bored, go row a boat or something.

The SEC, I've noticed, isn't like that for the most part. Yes, we have our welfare cases in Ole Miss and Vandy, but they are the exception, not the rule. 'Bama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M and us (Georgia) carry the torch in football, while Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi State return the favor in basketball. Even South Carolina and Mizzou contribute some.
07-03-2020 01:01 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 12:56 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

The three major components of a P5 athletic department's revenue are ticket sales, conference distribution (which is 90% media rights), and donations. Together they are somewhere between 80 and 100 percent of every P5 athletic budget. If games are played with no fans, ticket sales go from tens of millions to zero. If there are no games played (because there are too many players and coaches with the virus), the media rights also go from tens of millions to zero. Donations will be a third or less of the normal amount even with nonstop begging for boosters to donate.

Revenue could drop to close to zero while most of the annual department budget still has to be paid.

And good luck leaning on the university administration for help, because their budgets will be hammered just as badly. I'll bet there are universities that have already had lawyers analyzing the legalities of "furloughing" administrators and tenured faculty for a year, or at least cutting their pay by more than half.

I know one department head who says they may look at the underperforming departments and simply cut them as it is easier than dealing with a case by case basis on tenure. So yeah they are already doing serious examinations of possible scenarios to stem the bleeding. And this wasn't an SEC school though I'm sure we are facing similar processes right now. But the person is P5.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2020 01:14 AM by JRsec.)
07-03-2020 01:13 AM
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Post: #49
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 09:38 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 03:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Big 12 had revenue sharing half equal and half on TV appearances in order to stimulate good performance.

Despite how much they got bashed, their revenue sharing was significantly more equal than that of the Pac 10 or Big East. USC or Miami could make several times what the bottom member of the conference made, whereas in the Big 12, it was only about 50% from bottom to top (i.e. 7 or 8 million vs. 11 or 12 million) I remember one year where USC got 7.5 million and Washington St. got 2.5 million from the conference.

That's a fair model looking back at it now. I don't think the Big 12 would go back to it while UT and ou have it's solid tier 3 deals. However once the conference makes a tier 3 joint deal, I could see them rehash this concept again.

Why is more equal more fair? Shouldn't schools be paid on what they contribute to the conference, ie, the number of viewers they bring?
07-03-2020 06:47 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

Uncertainty is the biggest factor. By miles! Things like rate of infection, deferred expenses, fixed expenses can be measured. Uncertainty cannot be measured. It is what keeps lawyers, businessmen and administrators up at night.

Btw, it's uncertainty of what happens in an event of a breach of contract that keeps the Grant of Rights solid for the parties who agree to them. A pandemic, a war, or a massive terrorist incident will bring factors that cannot be controlled by standard procedures unless properly insured against. We won't know if the uncontrolled factor overtakes the certainty of a contract until after the measurable damage is known. This is why we haven't seen much evidence of a critical reaction beyond the closures on the part of administrators at major colleges and universities. We are seeing athletic departments scrambling to deal with massive deficits but deficits aren't by themselves unusual.

If I have to guess, the administrators are looking at the following:

- What changed?

- How is the change occurring?

- Who is being most affected by the change?

- What is needed to deal with the change?

- What is our ability to deal with the change?

- How do we measure the effects of steps used to deal with the change?

- What must improve in case the steps aren't sufficient?


The question I colored is the most critical one. Not much can be done without resources.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2020 10:08 AM by Transic_nyc.)
07-03-2020 09:56 AM
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Post: #51
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 09:56 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

Uncertainty is the biggest factor. By miles! Things like rate of infection, deferred expenses, fixed expenses can be measured. Uncertainty cannot be measured. It is what keeps lawyers, businessmen and administrators up at night.

Btw, it's uncertainty of what happens in an event of a breach of contract that keeps the Grant of Rights solid for the parties who agree to them. A pandemic, a war, or a massive terrorist incident will bring factors that cannot be controlled by standard procedures unless properly insured against. We won't know if the uncontrolled factor overtakes the certainty of a contract until after the measurable damage is known. This is why we haven't seen much evidence of a critical reaction. We are seeing athletic departments scrambling to deal with massive deficits but deficits aren't by themselves unusual.

If I have to guess, the administrators are looking at the following:

- What changed?

- How is the change occurring?

- Who is being most affected by the change?

- What is needed to deal with the change?

- What is our ability to deal with the change?

- How do we measure the effects of steps used to deal with the change?

- What must improve in case the steps aren't sufficient?


The question I colored is the most critical one. Not much can be done without resources.

And none of them operated with adequate cash reserves and endowments are tied up legally. They made their own financial cliff and then stood at the precipice just waiting for the event to push them off of it. And this is the strategy from our institutions of enlightenment. Where I come from we call that ironic!
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2020 10:12 AM by JRsec.)
07-03-2020 10:09 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Iowa cut its athletic budget by $15 million based on the assumption that both football and basketball will complete seasons with fans in attendance.

In other words, they are going to end up cutting their athletic budget by much more than that.
Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

They've been talking about it for at least 20 years. It could be the push. Of course, the barrier is the gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the rest in their contracts. But then that is an opportunity. Maybe the SEC/Big 10 could bring more value out of the ACC schools in highly populated areas.

There seem to be 4 logical ways it could go in a planned consolidation:
1a) ESPN league-SEC + ACC + 1 to 3 other schools realigned into 3 leagues
1b) Fox/ESPN league-Big 10 + Big 12 + Pac 12.

2a) $$$ league-SEC + Big 10
2b) The other guys-Pac 12 + Big 12 + ACC realigned somewhat so Big 12 has 12

3a) Rose-Big 10 + part of ACC + Pac 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues
3b) Sugar-SEC + part of ACC + Big 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues

4a) BTN-Big 10 + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4b) SEN-SEC + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4c) West-Pac 12 + Big 12 in 2 10-12 team leagues
07-03-2020 10:12 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #53
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:26 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Yes, it's hitting every school out there. Michigan and Iowa have been mentioned from P5 schools, add Oklahoma to the list too. Coronavirus is a game changer in everything we know about athletics. Everything that is successful in any buisness plans for the ebb and flow of markets, forecasted demand, sales forecasts and so on, you know this. They do not plan for a pandemic! Everyday this affects us, is just a larger hurdle to recovery.

What changes will made to keep these big Universities viable? That's why I previously mentioned that current contracts are worth about as much as the paper they are written on. That's my honest opinion to what this thread is about. "Acts of god" (Coronavirus) have a way of overlooking "ink on paper" when Buisness and especially Universities are in distress.

Again, everything I've said is an opinion.

It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

They've been talking about it for at least 20 years. It could be the push. Of course, the barrier is the gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the rest in their contracts. But then that is an opportunity. Maybe the SEC/Big 10 could bring more value out of the ACC schools in highly populated areas.

There seem to be 4 logical ways it could go in a planned consolidation:
1a) ESPN league-SEC + ACC + 1 to 3 other schools realigned into 3 leagues
1b) Fox/ESPN league-Big 10 + Big 12 + Pac 12.

2a) $$$ league-SEC + Big 10
2b) The other guys-Pac 12 + Big 12 + ACC realigned somewhat so Big 12 has 12

3a) Rose-Big 10 + part of ACC + Pac 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues
3b) Sugar-SEC + part of ACC + Big 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues

4a) BTN-Big 10 + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4b) SEN-SEC + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4c) West-Pac 12 + Big 12 in 2 10-12 team leagues


The most logical division would be:

SEC - Missouri + ACC + 4 Texas schools (Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor) + West Virginia=32

PAC + B1G + Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas,Kansas State, Iowa State=32


And Notre Dame


I would divide the two groups into 4 divisions of 8.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2020 10:57 AM by XLance.)
07-03-2020 10:54 AM
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Post: #54
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 10:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's going to change far more than anyone realizes yet. It's going to hit small privates and small state school's athletic programs hard and it's going to give the big boys a buzz cut. It's already lowering salaries and that's just the hard first step. If we don't play this Fall, and that is truly up in the air at this point, the changes even among the P5 will be palpable. The issue is that nobody had the foresight to save for such a calamity so any surplus is expended early leaving serious shortages for continued play.

It's going to be a great time to reconsider the large 7 figure salaries and whether we really want pay for play, stipends, etc. and if it might not be wiser to raise entrance standards and return to true student athletes.

And if we do move into a semi-pro kind of world for the top schools I think the ranks of those included will be fewer than first anticipated.

Something to think about anyway.
2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

They've been talking about it for at least 20 years. It could be the push. Of course, the barrier is the gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the rest in their contracts. But then that is an opportunity. Maybe the SEC/Big 10 could bring more value out of the ACC schools in highly populated areas.

There seem to be 4 logical ways it could go in a planned consolidation:
1a) ESPN league-SEC + ACC + 1 to 3 other schools realigned into 3 leagues
1b) Fox/ESPN league-Big 10 + Big 12 + Pac 12.

2a) $$$ league-SEC + Big 10
2b) The other guys-Pac 12 + Big 12 + ACC realigned somewhat so Big 12 has 12

3a) Rose-Big 10 + part of ACC + Pac 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues
3b) Sugar-SEC + part of ACC + Big 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues

4a) BTN-Big 10 + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4b) SEN-SEC + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4c) West-Pac 12 + Big 12 in 2 10-12 team leagues


The most logical division would be:

SEC - Missouri + ACC + 4 Texas schools (Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor) + West Virginia=32

PAC + B1G + Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas,Kansas State, Iowa State=32


And Notre Dame


I would divide the two groups into 4 divisions of 8.
I could see this along with many other scenarios. Why? Because "these times they are a changing" and FAST!
07-03-2020 11:03 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #55
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 11:03 AM)cubucks Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 10:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 11:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 10:54 PM)cubucks Wrote:  2020 has been amazing. I use amazing here in a very bad way. I don't even know how to describe it?

Almost apocalyptic. I think the issues may yet open another possibility not listed in the poll. All, most, or part of the P5 merge to form a better bargaining and scheduling entity than 5 conferences. The disruption of revenue, the possible failure to have an actual season (should that occur), and the massive deficits athletic departments will be facing, will put immense pressure on media contracts, GOR's, and current governing structures. The social issues are just an added log on the fire. I'd say that such forces, should they come to bear in fullness upon the existing structure, alignments, business models, and scheduling formats will bring unforeseen alliances, structures, and business arrangements all in an effort to simply survive and overcome the current conditions. Therefore no conference structure is ultimately safe and nothing as we know it today might resemble the future. It's all a big we'll see!

They've been talking about it for at least 20 years. It could be the push. Of course, the barrier is the gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the rest in their contracts. But then that is an opportunity. Maybe the SEC/Big 10 could bring more value out of the ACC schools in highly populated areas.

There seem to be 4 logical ways it could go in a planned consolidation:
1a) ESPN league-SEC + ACC + 1 to 3 other schools realigned into 3 leagues
1b) Fox/ESPN league-Big 10 + Big 12 + Pac 12.

2a) $$$ league-SEC + Big 10
2b) The other guys-Pac 12 + Big 12 + ACC realigned somewhat so Big 12 has 12

3a) Rose-Big 10 + part of ACC + Pac 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues
3b) Sugar-SEC + part of ACC + Big 12 realigned into 3 10-12 team leagues

4a) BTN-Big 10 + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4b) SEN-SEC + part of ACC realigned into 2 10-12 team leagues
4c) West-Pac 12 + Big 12 in 2 10-12 team leagues


The most logical division would be:

SEC - Missouri + ACC + 4 Texas schools (Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor) + West Virginia=32

PAC + B1G + Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas,Kansas State, Iowa State=32


And Notre Dame


I would divide the two groups into 4 divisions of 8.
I could see this along with many other scenarios. Why? Because "these times they are a changing" and FAST!



07-03-2020 02:53 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
I'd love to see one big conference with central scheduling for every power team, with all of them playing 6 home/6 away games to bring in some of these huge differences in SoS.

Oh, and while we're at it, let's do away with the bowls and expand the playoffs.
07-03-2020 02:56 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 02:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I'd love to see one big conference with central scheduling for every power team, with all of them playing 6 home/6 away games to bring in some of these huge differences in SoS.

Oh, and while we're at it, let's do away with the bowls and expand the playoffs.

01-wingedeagle

07-03-2020 03:39 PM
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Post: #58
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 02:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I'd love to see one big conference with central scheduling for every power team, with all of them playing 6 home/6 away games to bring in some of these huge differences in SoS.

Oh, and while we're at it, let's do away with the bowls and expand the playoffs.

Just having one big conference doesn't help all that much. Having one big conference (league) that the schools controlled would if:
1. We put a couple of satellites into space via SpaceX (think 6 to 7 billion).
2. We built an satellite uplink facility or purchased one.
3. We bundled the product of all 65 P5 schools, kept current conference affiliations (in name only) and sold a streaming package for each of the P5 conferences for $250 total ($50 a month from September through January) and owned the proceeds. Since the combined viewership of each conference is just over 100 million let's assume that not having network exposure initially costs us 30 million subscribers combined. So hypothetically we have 70 million viewers paying the new entity $50 a month for 5 months for football. That equals 17.5 billion in straight revenue divided by 65 schools which comes to 269.23 million per school. And that's just for football. If basketball is worth 20% of that and if we are a breakaway and have our own tournament that will be 53.846 million more per school without the tournament for those who subscribe to college basketball season as well. The tournament is worth 1.2 billion to ESPN so lets say it is worth 1 billion to the upper tier. That's another 15,384,000 per school.

I could add baseball/softball subscriptions plus the associated World Series for each and add Hockey for the Big 10 schools but that's just a nice cherry on top of the other pile of cash.

The total for owning and managing our own rights would be 338.25 million per school.

And Mark we haven't even touched advertising which would nearly double that amount so call it $600 million per school in annual revenue. If the schools gave $100 million each from their first year's revenue they could pay for the two satellites. (6.5 billion)

Our presidents and commissioners need to get their heads out of their butts! The window for getting this done before the networks lobby Congress to close the window is short. But if every school gave 25 million a year for governance once they have paid the 100 million for the satellite overhead (pun intended) they would be looking at 575 million per year for all sports rights thereafter including the conference support revenue.

Obviously our schools don't need 575 million a year to fund athletics. We could cap that at a handsome 200 million per year and use the other 375 million for funding our own research and campus needs. Sports could become a revenue stream for academics.

What's more by establishing our own streaming capacities each school has an efficient means for offering online coursework and billing it by subscription.

In normal times all classes for general studies (Freshman and Sophomore years) could be held online with unrestricted enrollment which also enhances University revenue. Undergraduate courses for honors scholarship students (Freshman-Senior Class) would still be held on campus as would all Junior and Senior minor and major work. Only the top students from the first two years would get to enroll as Juniors and those class sizes would be limited. Those who don't make the cut will have coursework guaranteed by their states to transfer completely to any other state school so no money wasted.

The benefit to parents is that the cost of the first two years is cut in half or more by no need for campus housing and board. The benefit to the schools is more campus space for graduate work and research and a proven means of obtaining the best students for their Junior and Senior classes. The benefit to the state school system is you have oodles more qualified students to swell your Junior and Senior class groups who are encouraged to stay in state by the guaranteed transfer of work. This tide lifts all boats.

But none of this is possible if we continue to let the networks dictate what we are worth. When ESPN pays out 50% of the profit that is after their executives are paid and their talking heads are paid and they bill us for any other potential expense and it is not 50% of the advertising revenue.

If Sankey has signed the new deal with ESPN then he has lazily signed away a possible 500 million per school. Presidents lazily do this as well because they don't want any extra work. But for the massive potential they are all fools for settling for the scraps from ESPN's table.

We the schools have no added overhead for executive management. We the schools have no need of talking heads who don't even get our names right. We have our own play by play crews that our fans love.

And we have already all built production facilities in order to uplink signals from our schools for the conference networks and they belong to us.

The only thing preventing this future is the will to go there.

And what does the consumer get for this cost during football season? The ability to watch any of his conference games live or any of them recorded at any time. For the extra 50 bucks he gets to watch any conference's game live and watch any or all of them recorded. That's a deal worth roughly half of the cost of one season ticket book to SEC or Big 10 games.

And Mark even if hidden or routine overhead costs each school another 100 million each 475 million is a helluva lot more than the drippings we get now.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2020 03:51 PM by JRsec.)
07-03-2020 03:40 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(07-03-2020 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 02:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I'd love to see one big conference with central scheduling for every power team, with all of them playing 6 home/6 away games to bring in some of these huge differences in SoS.

Oh, and while we're at it, let's do away with the bowls and expand the playoffs.

Just having one big conference doesn't help all that much. Having one big conference (league) that the schools controlled would if:
1. We put a couple of satellites into space via SpaceX (think 6 to 7 billion).
2. We built an satellite uplink facility or purchased one.
3. We bundled the product of all 65 P5 schools, kept current conference affiliations (in name only) and sold a streaming package for each of the P5 conferences for $250 total ($50 a month from September through January) and owned the proceeds. Since the combined viewership of each conference is just over 100 million let's assume that not having network exposure initially costs us 30 million subscribers combined. So hypothetically we have 70 million viewers paying the new entity $50 a month for 5 months for football. That equals 17.5 billion in straight revenue divided by 65 schools which comes to 269.23 million per school. And that's just for football. If basketball is worth 20% of that and if we are a breakaway and have our own tournament that will be 53.846 million more per school without the tournament for those who subscribe to college basketball season as well. The tournament is worth 1.2 billion to ESPN so lets say it is worth 1 billion to the upper tier. That's another 15,384,000 per school.

I could add baseball/softball subscriptions plus the associated World Series for each and add Hockey for the Big 10 schools but that's just a nice cherry on top of the other pile of cash.

The total for owning and managing our own rights would be 338.25 million per school.

And Mark we haven't even touched advertising which would nearly double that amount so call it $600 million per school in annual revenue. If the schools gave $100 million each from their first year's revenue they could pay for the two satellites. (6.5 billion)

Our presidents and commissioners need to get their heads out of their butts! The window for getting this done before the networks lobby Congress to close the window is short. But if every school gave 25 million a year for governance once they have paid the 100 million for the satellite overhead (pun intended) they would be looking at 575 million per year for all sports rights thereafter including the conference support revenue.

Obviously our schools don't need 575 million a year to fund athletics. We could cap that at a handsome 200 million per year and use the other 375 million for funding our own research and campus needs. Sports could become a revenue stream for academics.

What's more by establishing our own streaming capacities each school has an efficient means for offering online coursework and billing it by subscription.

In normal times all classes for general studies (Freshman and Sophomore years) could be held online with unrestricted enrollment which also enhances University revenue. Undergraduate courses for honors scholarship students (Freshman-Senior Class) would still be held on campus as would all Junior and Senior minor and major work. Only the top students from the first two years would get to enroll as Juniors and those class sizes would be limited. Those who don't make the cut will have coursework guaranteed by their states to transfer completely to any other state school so no money wasted.

The benefit to parents is that the cost of the first two years is cut in half or more by no need for campus housing and board. The benefit to the schools is more campus space for graduate work and research and a proven means of obtaining the best students for their Junior and Senior classes. The benefit to the state school system is you have oodles more qualified students to swell your Junior and Senior class groups who are encouraged to stay in state by the guaranteed transfer of work. This tide lifts all boats.

But none of this is possible if we continue to let the networks dictate what we are worth. When ESPN pays out 50% of the profit that is after their executives are paid and their talking heads are paid and they bill us for any other potential expense and it is not 50% of the advertising revenue.

If Sankey has signed the new deal with ESPN then he has lazily signed away a possible 500 million per school. Presidents lazily do this as well because they don't want any extra work. But for the massive potential they are all fools for settling for the scraps from ESPN's table.

We the schools have no added overhead for executive management. We the schools have no need of talking heads who don't even get our names right. We have our own play by play crews that our fans love.

And we have already all built production facilities in order to uplink signals from our schools for the conference networks and they belong to us.

The only thing preventing this future is the will to go there.

And what does the consumer get for this cost during football season? The ability to watch any of his conference games live or any of them recorded at any time. For the extra 50 bucks he gets to watch any conference's game live and watch any or all of them recorded. That's a deal worth roughly half of the cost of one season ticket book to SEC or Big 10 games.

And Mark even if hidden or routine overhead costs each school another 100 million each 475 million is a helluva lot more than the drippings we get now.

So you're saying the P5 schools could make more money by cutting out the middle man? Yeah, baby! 04-rock
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 12:19 PM by JRsec.)
Yesterday 11:59 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Will there be a P5 realignment by 2026?
(Yesterday 11:59 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-03-2020 02:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I'd love to see one big conference with central scheduling for every power team, with all of them playing 6 home/6 away games to bring in some of these huge differences in SoS.

Oh, and while we're at it, let's do away with the bowls and expand the playoffs.

Just having one big conference doesn't help all that much. Having one big conference (league) that the schools controlled would if:
1. We put a couple of satellites into space via SpaceX (think 6 to 7 billion).
2. We built an satellite uplink facility or purchased one.
3. We bundled the product of all 65 P5 schools, kept current conference affiliations (in name only) and sold a streaming package for each of the P5 conferences for $250 total ($50 a month from September through January) and owned the proceeds. Since the combined viewership of each conference is just over 100 million let's assume that not having network exposure initially costs us 30 million subscribers combined. So hypothetically we have 70 million viewers paying the new entity $50 a month for 5 months for football. That equals 17.5 billion in straight revenue divided by 65 schools which comes to 269.23 million per school. And that's just for football. If basketball is worth 20% of that and if we are a breakaway and have our own tournament that will be 53.846 million more per school without the tournament for those who subscribe to college basketball season as well. The tournament is worth 1.2 billion to ESPN so lets say it is worth 1 billion to the upper tier. That's another 15,384,000 per school.

I could add baseball/softball subscriptions plus the associated World Series for each and add Hockey for the Big 10 schools but that's just a nice cherry on top of the other pile of cash.

The total for owning and managing our own rights would be 338.25 million per school.

And Mark we haven't even touched advertising which would nearly double that amount so call it $600 million per school in annual revenue. If the schools gave $100 million each from their first year's revenue they could pay for the two satellites. (6.5 billion)

Our presidents and commissioners need to get their heads out of their butts! The window for getting this done before the networks lobby Congress to close the window is short. But if every school gave 25 million a year for governance once they have paid the 100 million for the satellite overhead (pun intended) they would be looking at 575 million per year for all sports rights thereafter including the conference support revenue.

Obviously our schools don't need 575 million a year to fund athletics. We could cap that at a handsome 200 million per year and use the other 375 million for funding our own research and campus needs. Sports could become a revenue stream for academics.

What's more by establishing our own streaming capacities each school has an efficient means for offering online coursework and billing it by subscription.

In normal times all classes for general studies (Freshman and Sophomore years) could be held online with unrestricted enrollment which also enhances University revenue. Undergraduate courses for honors scholarship students (Freshman-Senior Class) would still be held on campus as would all Junior and Senior minor and major work. Only the top students from the first two years would get to enroll as Juniors and those class sizes would be limited. Those who don't make the cut will have coursework guaranteed by their states to transfer completely to any other state school so no money wasted.

The benefit to parents is that the cost of the first two years is cut in half or more by no need for campus housing and board. The benefit to the schools is more campus space for graduate work and research and a proven means of obtaining the best students for their Junior and Senior classes. The benefit to the state school system is you have oodles more qualified students to swell your Junior and Senior class groups who are encouraged to stay in state by the guaranteed transfer of work. This tide lifts all boats.

But none of this is possible if we continue to let the networks dictate what we are worth. When ESPN pays out 50% of the profit that is after their executives are paid and their talking heads are paid and they bill us for any other potential expense and it is not 50% of the advertising revenue.

If Sankey has signed the new deal with ESPN then he has lazily signed away a possible 500 million per school. Presidents lazily do this as well because they don't want any extra work. But for the massive potential they are all fools for settling for the scraps from ESPN's table.

We the schools have no added overhead for executive management. We the schools have no need of talking heads who don't even get our names right. We have our own play by play crews that our fans love.

And we have already all built production facilities in order to uplink signals from our schools for the conference networks and they belong to us.

The only thing preventing this future is the will to go there.

And what does the consumer get for this cost during football season? The ability to watch any of his conference games live or any of them recorded at any time. For the extra 50 bucks he gets to watch any conference's game live and watch any or all of them recorded. That's a deal worth roughly half of the cost of one season ticket book to SEC or Big 10 games.

And Mark even if hidden or routine overhead costs each school another 100 million each 475 million is a helluva lot more than the drippings we get now.

So you're saying the P5 schools could make more money by cutting out the middle man? Yeah, baby! 04-rock

Around 9 times more in media money alone. But we would have to also own our own basketball tournament, baseball tournament and softball tournament, and then we would make phenomenally more!
Yesterday 12:21 PM
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