If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

I think we'll have to see what OU and UT decide to do before predicting how interested either Fox or ESPN will feel about the Big XII. If the SEC were to land both of them, ESPN may not want to bid on what's left either. In that case, both they and Fox may try to steal it with lowball bids.

I strongly feel FOX is going to want to expand/increase its college football presence. They showed that this season with their Big Noon Kickoff and "Big Noon" game strategy. The #1 way they can do so is to bid for full first tier rights for the Big Ten. Rumors were that FOX was planning on bidding for the SEC (not confirmed, https://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/n...abc.html). FOX favored the Big Ten for the most part, most of their Big Noon games were Big Ten and they made many trips to Big ten games/stadiums for the pregame show.

Assuming CBS doesn't bid for the Big Ten (not a good assumption since CBS might still want something to replace the SEC, the Big Ten is the most valuable, and CBS does have a relationship with the B1G from men's basketball), then the ball's in ESPN/ABC's court. Can they live with not having any Big Ten controlled games or with at best second tier Big Ten controlled games so the best Ohio State Big Ten games would be say games vs. Indiana or Illinois. ABC hasn't aired Ohio State/Michigan since FOX started airing Big Ten football. If FOX gets full first tier rights, ABC won't be able to show any head to head matchups between the trio of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State and chances are if Wisconsin plays any of the three it will be on FOX. Can ESPN deal with that or would they want to at least try for splitting the Big Ten's 1st tier rights again? If ESPN/ABC has full tier SEC (and ACC) 1st tier rights and FOX has full Big Ten 1st tier rights, ESPN is still the undisputed king of college football (especially if they still have the full CFP) but FOX is definitely stronger. ESPN might want to keep FOX in their place and limit their growth potential. If ESPN does want to challenge FOX for the Big Ten, the Big Ten wins. If they don't, the Big Ten loses. If CBS wants in on the Big Ten, the Big Ten wins even more. But as FightingMuskie said in the OP, "The Networks are in total Control".

Once the Big Ten is settled, we can discuss the Big 12 and Pac 12. I think the fact that FOX bailed on the Big 12 Championship Game is telling.

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

Why?

The two networks have generally split the Pac 12 and Big 12.

If Fox gets the Big Ten deal, and I think they will, the Pac 12 and Big 12 are bound to get low balled because the major broadcast players have what they need.

CBS might go after the Game-of-the-Week from one of them if they can get it at a discount.

Now, if Fox lowballs the Big Ten, knowing that ESPN is going to do the same, as ken d suggests, things could get interesting.

(06-22-2020 12:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If Fox gets the Big Ten deal, and I think they will, the Pac 12 and Big 12 are bound to get low balled because the major broadcast players have what they need.

CBS might go after the Game-of-the-Week from one of them if they can get it at a discount.

Now, if Fox lowballs the Big Ten, knowing that ESPN is going to do the same, as ken d suggests, things could get interesting.

I believe I suggested they might lowball the Big XII, not the Big Ten. And then only if the Big XII loses both Texas and Oklahoma.

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

I wouldn't be shocked to see FOX turn their nose up at the Big 12. They've already given up the 3rd tier rights and the Big 12 title game. But I think ESPN will still bid for a PAC 12 package. They need some decent brand names to throw into their late night slots if for no other reason.

I can see 2 outcomes for the Big 12...

1. The league loses its best members and reconstitutes with a few AAC schools and probably BYU. They end up wholly owned by ESPN.

2. Texas and Oklahoma stay, maybe they expand by 2, and they more or less become an ESPN product with several games moving to ESPN+.

Right now, ESPN owns all the 3rd tier rights for that league except that of Oklahoma. FOX doesn't have a platform to take advantage of those rights while the other networks are probably not interested.

Be interesting to see how it plays out. I don't think FOX will break the bank for the B16 and I'm still bullish that the Big 12 will get more than the low ball offers being described here.

(06-22-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

Why?

The two networks have generally split the Pac 12 and Big 12.

Fox already walked away from their half of the Big XII CCG - essentially getting nothing for their rights. Why do you suppose they would now bid on more rights?

(06-22-2020 11:51 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

I think we'll have to see what OU and UT decide to do before predicting how interested either Fox or ESPN will feel about the Big XII. If the SEC were to land both of them, ESPN may not want to bid on what's left either. In that case, both they and Fox may try to steal it with lowball bids.

Except ESPN has quietly acquired the T3 rights of all Big 12 schools except for Oklahoma whose T3 rights are up for sale in 2022. Who buys OU's T3 rights and what the duration of the contract is and how much they are paid will reveal a lot.

If FOX bids heavily for OU's T3 rights and wants to sign them beyond 2025 it might be a tell that OU has committed to the Big 10. If FOX only resigns them until 2025 it might mean that OU is playing the field. If ESPN buys them through the 2025 season it can mean either that OU will be moving to the SEC or that they will be staying in a Big 12 that loses nobody and might add some schools. If ESPN buys the OU' rights for just until 2025 I think that more solidly signals SEC than if they sign a longer contract and I say that realizing that OU could still play the field but ESPN being interested enough to only buy them for 3 years means they would be merging them with another structure which is managed differently and that would be the SECN. Admittedly FOX could do the same with a 3 year deal but since FOX owns 51% of the BTN and the B1G owns the other 49% then signing a longer term contract actually signals OU's move to the Big 10 and a 3 year deal would mean OU is uncommitted.

If OU goes anywhere it diminishes the Big 12 and seeing Kansas make a move and or Texas would be likely.

(06-22-2020 01:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 11:51 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

I think we'll have to see what OU and UT decide to do before predicting how interested either Fox or ESPN will feel about the Big XII. If the SEC were to land both of them, ESPN may not want to bid on what's left either. In that case, both they and Fox may try to steal it with lowball bids.

Except ESPN has quietly acquired the T3 rights of all Big 12 schools except for Oklahoma whose T3 rights are up for sale in 2022. Who buys OU's T3 rights and what the duration of the contract is and how much they are paid will reveal a lot.

If FOX bids heavily for OU's T3 rights and wants to sign them beyond 2025 it might be a tell that OU has committed to the Big 10. If FOX only resigns them until 2025 it might mean that OU is playing the field. If ESPN buys them through the 2025 season it can mean either that OU will be moving to the SEC or that they will be staying in a Big 12 that loses nobody and might add some schools. If ESPN buys the OU' rights for just until 2025 I think that more solidly signals SEC than if they sign a longer contract and I say that realizing that OU could still play the field but ESPN being interested enough to only buy them for 3 years means they would be merging them with another structure which is managed differently and that would be the SECN. Admittedly FOX could do the same with a 3 year deal but since FOX owns 51% of the BTN and the B1G owns the other 49% then signing a longer term contract actually signals OU's move to the Big 10 and a 3 year deal would mean OU is uncommitted.

If OU goes anywhere it diminishes the Big 12 and seeing Kansas make a move and or Texas would be likely.

So, situation is fluid?

Those OU T3 rights are definitely going to have the potential to indicate where the realignment will go in a few years.

Only once last season did ABC or Fox air a Big 12 game that didn’t include Texas or Oklahoma so essentially they are paying T1 rates to 10 schools in exchange for the content from 2.

The Big Ten and SEC would be foolish if they haven’t already had quiet, behind the scenes talks with the Oklahoma administration about the Sooners’ future. I think both conferences are smart enough to know that Texas is going to do what Texas wants to do and there will be no pushing them towards anything.

The SEC offers the political convenience of being able to bring Oklahoma St and rich recruiting territory. The Big Ten has academic prestige and an easier path the CCG. It will be interesting to see what they do.

(06-22-2020 01:27 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:27 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If CBS is going to be completely out of the P5 game and NBC is going to remain only committed to the tiny, relatively inexpensive ND contract that leaves only 2 bidders ESPN and Fox.

Unless CBS and NBC open their wallets to get in the game it’s going to be a buyer’s market for content.

There will be some willingness to shell out some cash for the Big Ten rights, which I think Fox will when and pay a decent price for but I think when the Big 12 and PAC 12 go up for renewal later this decade they may be very unhappy with the numbers they see.

Am I off base here?

The last time Big Ten rights went to market, ESPN made a low offer and the Big Ten stepped in to prevent Fox from purchasing all of the rights - that may not work this time since ESPN will own ALL of the SEC. As for the Big XII and Pac-12, it all depends on who wants what - my guess is that Fox won't bid on the Big XII and ESPN won't bid on the Pac-12.

I wouldn't be shocked to see FOX turn their nose up at the Big 12. They've already given up the 3rd tier rights and the Big 12 title game. But I think ESPN will still bid for a PAC 12 package. They need some decent brand names to throw into their late night slots if for no other reason.

I can see 2 outcomes for the Big 12...

1. The league loses its best members and reconstitutes with a few AAC schools and probably BYU. They end up wholly owned by ESPN.

2. Texas and Oklahoma stay, maybe they expand by 2, and they more or less become an ESPN product with several games moving to ESPN+.

Right now, ESPN owns all the 3rd tier rights for that league except that of Oklahoma. FOX doesn't have a platform to take advantage of those rights while the other networks are probably not interested.

So they will bid for the lower rated Pac 12 but not for the Big 12?

(06-22-2020 01:47 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Be interesting to see how it plays out. I don't think FOX will break the bank for the B16 and I'm still bullish that the Big 12 will get more than the low ball offers being described here.

The real risk is if ESPN gets the lion's share of the Big 10. Not likely, but possible. Then ESPN won't have a lot of slots for the Big 12 and Pac 12 and Fox will be essentially bidding against themselves.

I don't see CBS or NBC, based on their history, trying to be big players and paying top dollar, but they might take parts.

The most I see ESPN buying from the Big Ten would be half of the T1/T2 content. Those SEC GOTWs that they bought are going to end up displacing content from the other 4 P conferences. They need to let some inventory go or they will be paying T2 rates for content the shelve into ESPN+, SECN, or ACCN.

(06-22-2020 03:24 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The most I see ESPN buying from the Big Ten would be half of the T1/T2 content. Those SEC GOTWs that they bought are going to end up displacing content from the other 4 P conferences. They need to let some inventory go or they will be paying T2 rates for content the shelve into ESPN+, SECN, or ACCN.

I think the general idea is to move away from cable and to build credible stock for streaming. And we are talking a long term strategy not anything for the next 5 to 10 years.

ESPN will try to buy as much top product as possible to make the move to streaming much more likely to be successful for all involved when the time comes. You might one day see each conference's complete package sold as a separate stream for the season and bundle package would be for purchasing all of them for reduced price as compared to individual conference package costs.

Then there is no Network to fool with. You have the product and 100% of the ad revenue for displaying it. Cut out ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX and sell the sports product under ESPN+ and the customers are happy, the schools get more, and ESPN makes more.

So I really don't see Disney/ESPN shorting any good product and the Big 12 is a good product.

I wouldn't be surprised to see FOX go heavy for pro content and ESPN wrest the Big 10 away from them and add the Big 12. If they did that they could pick up the PAC for much less and essentially have the whole shebang to sell from the preseason/or Spring game through the CCG's and into the CFP and bowls.

All of it would be streamed. All of it pays ESPN directly, and as popular live entertainment the whole nation buys in.

They would merely sell the content for every conference and sell the P5 and G5 content as separate bundles.

JR—so a stand alone streaming service with no cable subscription required that includes whatever is airing live on the ESPN family of networks plus a boatload of other live content that they’ve warehoused? There is definitely money to made in that set up and I think the conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 12) would go for it because ESPN is assuming all the risk.

That would be a game changer and a profitable one. They just need to make sure the cost point doesn’t scare folks away.

(06-22-2020 04:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  JR—so a stand alone streaming service with no cable subscription required that includes whatever is airing live on the ESPN family of networks plus a boatload of other live content that they’ve warehoused? There is definitely money to made in that set up and I think the conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 12) would go for it because ESPN is assuming all the risk.

That would be a game changer and a profitable one. They just need to make sure the cost point doesn’t scare folks away.

That's the point. The networks are dying. They last truly profitable programming they had was the news and those are now so reviled I don't see how that paradigm can continue.

What do most people buy cable tiers for? Sports. Let those who want infomercials and schmuck reruns have them. The average 2nd tier small sports bundle cable package is going to run $80 bucks to $100 a month and the top tier $120 to $140.

If ESPN sells just the particular sports package for the SEC or Big 10 for 50% of that they make more, the schools make more, and the consumer pays less. The families can add Disney+ or Netflix and add one of the local channel providers for far less than $80. Let's say ESPN+ offers the total college football package for $200 bucks. That means for August, September, October, November & December-January 15th you get all of college football you could care to see at roughly $40 a month in real cost. Handle college hoops the same way. ESPN isn't spiting that with cable providers. So they split the profits with the conferences. And remember individual games can still be sold, individual conferences can still be sold, etc. So the consumption is only limited by the demand. So if the SEC and Big 10 get $20 bucks per household per month for football season that's pretty damned good. Let's say the both average 5 million for just the prime time games in actual viewership. That's 100 million a week for 12 weeks that 1.2 billion for the season plus CCG, odd holiday games etc. That's enough just for T1 to obliterate the T2 and T3 values added to the present T1. ESPN+ is making the same thing for each of the SEC and Big 10, a little less for the PAC, ACC, Big 12, and less for the G5. But everyone is making more. Now to boost that lets say you can buy your conference for $200 and all conferences for $350. I'd buy that two as it isn't even the cost of 1 season ticket book at Auburn at face value (now $1200 donation required). Now all of the schools get a % of that second $150. And you are getting all of the games for every FBS conference for roughly $80 a month. What's more you buy your baseball and basketball separately if you like them.

There's a bonanza out there and it's not happening with standard cable.

Would you pay $200 for all of your conferences games for a season? I would.

It sounds like a lot but it isn't. Here you pay for 1/5 of the total cost for 5 months. With cable you have to buy the tier and contract it for a year. If you don't like hoops or baseball you are hosed for the other 7 months of the year and roughly at the same cost. You can get a basic local channel lineup, Disney+, Netflix, for roughly 40 bucks. Add this in and you get a helluva lot more of what you want for that extra 50 bucks which puts you right at the mid tier cable package, only you aren't buying sports you don't like for the rest of the year and there is your savings.

I like the concept but I think they should make a it a yearly thing, with payments divided over 12 months:

$25/mo = $300/yr

I also think it would take a recognizable brand name like ESPN to get this to work. I don’t see Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc in a position to pull this off just yet