jmuwyhamhgawd
Special Teams
Posts: 625
Joined: May 2013
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Dukes
Location: Richmond
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RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic)
(06-25-2020 12:52 PM)Dukester Wrote: (06-25-2020 12:17 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote: (06-25-2020 11:58 AM)Dukester Wrote: (06-25-2020 11:31 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote: (06-25-2020 09:21 AM)Dukester Wrote: Yep Shady - "planning" and perhaps a better word "hoping". Best case scenario in all those situations team sports without fans. At best in another month. Other countries have already begun their pro sports leagues, and it's not because they have a bigger tolerance, it's because they have done a better job of reducing the cases.
And Shady, don't know how you missed it, but it's not just 2 golfers, it is many college teams and pro teams. And practices have not even resumed for the vast majority of teams.
Many of the southern states, including Florida are "beginning" to understand.
Have those countries done a better job reducing cases, or a poorer job identifying cases? It's hard to say. Yeah our case curve looks horrible compared to those other countries (mostly looking at western europe; seems like central and south america are now the ones catching up), but our death curve looks about the same. USA peaked at a 7-day-average of 2,043 deaths per day. That average has gone down 56 of the last 64 days, including 46 of the last 49 days, to now be sitting at an average 565 deaths per day. A decrease of over 72%. I take the virus seriously, wearing a mask, giving people space, no big groups, and avoiding most unnecessary trips/interactions when I can, but I get frustrated that only the bad numbers seem to get reported.
Also, specifically when it comes to sports, I wouldn't be so quick to say "best case scenario in all those situations is team sports without fans". I don't follow hockey or basketball all that much, but at least five MLB teams (cubs, white sox, marlins, twins, astros) have said they plan on playing with fans in the stands. As far as I've seen, none have definitively said they won't have fans.
I appreciate you wear the mask and take it serious. I want sports to come back ASAP. I want the cases, that lead to deaths, to come down ASAP. I want the economy to come back ASAP. I'm willing to take the minimum sacrifice for these things to happen. Of course a mask makes a difference...
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases
Look at the US versus the UK. Now wonder why the UK is considering restricting travel from the United States. Does anyone think that is just luck? Does anyone think the UK forgot how to tract cases? No, obviously they've worked hard to gain those results, and it's paying dividends now. The premier league started back up last week.
So the best we can say is "we're planning". Possibly in a month our major professional sports will be playing games.
"Deaths are down" - as we know from a 6 weeks ago, deaths seem to track about 5 weeks from Cases.
Cases increase, then hospitalizations increase, then deaths increase.
I want deaths to decrease, sports to return, and the economy to return. If more people would take it serious, wear masks, and social space it will happen much faster.
Why have 5% of USA cases resulted in deaths but 14% of UK cases? (and 12% of Spain and the Netherlands, 15% of Italy, 16% of Belgium, and 18% of France)? Are they unhealthier, or do they have a deadlier strain of disease, or have they done a worse job of identifying total cases, which results in a higher fatality ratio? I admit I don't have the answer, but if I had to put money on it, I'd guess the latter.
I'd guess the reason why is what we already know - we have a better health care system. We're good at that.
But why has Spain, UK, and Peru been able to improve their cases substantially, and now all the sudden our cases and hospitalizations are as bad as ever and trending up? Could it be reductions of masks and social distancing? Seems to go hand and hand. Our trend improved greatly from April to June. Now in the last month we lost all the ground and are hitting all time highs for us.
This trend does not go hand & hand with sports coming back sooner, and the economy improving.
Alright I know we're way off topic now and we're trying to limit that kind of thing more, but you and I seem civil enough so hopefully it's alright if we continue for a bit.
Do you have any good numbers for hospitalizations being up? I know there are some problem areas, but as far as I can tell there is no nationwide number for total hospitalizations. As far as I can tell, they're down quite a bit. They certainly are in Virginia, with the 7-day average as of this morning the lowest since March.
Cases is just a bad way to measure progress or compare countries, since it's totally dependent on the level of testing. Have our numbers (the ones that matter) come down as much as the other bad countries in western Europe? No. Have they been pretty similar? Yes. On May 12, the US, the UK, and Spain were all actually really close in averaging about .9 tests per 1,000 people per day. Both of us had a percent positive of 8%. Now the US is at 1.54 tests per 1,000 per day, the UK is still at .9, and Spain is down to .7. We're testing so much more than anyone else, the numbers have to go up. Our percent positive is now at 5.1, UK is at 2.0, and Spain is at 1.1. Yes, ours is worse, but not in the way that looking at a chart of total cases would make someone think. And I'm not one of the "restore my freedom, the virus is fake news" kind of people trying to downplay the whole thing. The only thing I'm trying to say is that our progress is more comparable to the other hard-hit western european countries than the headlines indicate. You also brought Peru into the equation but I don't think that's a very good comparison for you. They're reportedly administering about .1 tests per 1,000 per day. Their current death rate is 5.7 per day compared to Spain at 3.6, the UK at 1.9, and us at 1.8. The UK's overall deaths are at about 635 per million people and Spain at 606 per million people compared to the US at about 368 per million people, so the UK has had about 73% more deaths per capita and Spain has about 65% more, which doesn't sound very successful to me.
I was using this site for my data: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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