(06-22-2020 09:54 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  What spikes?

Yesterday there were 267 deaths reported in the USA, the lowest since March 23rd.

Hospitalizations lag cases, deaths lag hospitalizations. The downward decline in cases has bottomed out and is going up again, and in some places, like Dallas and Phoenix, ICU capacity is being stressed, so the case mortality rate is going to increase.

This may be part of why the US lags so far behind the other two big economies in the world in getting infection rates down ... we may have created an ADHD information processing system for ourselves which simply can't keep track of anything that has a two week lag between headline number and impact.

(06-22-2020 11:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Not a shock to me. With the media hyping up these homemade masks as being the equivalent of a level A hazmat suit and the people wearing the useless things are ignoring any concept of social distancing and are constantly fidgeting with these Petri dishes they are wearing on their face then contaminating everything else they touch.

Social media is often further garbling the messages that the media garbled in getting them from the source. The dust masks reduce the risk of infection, because as it is emerging, the strongest sources of infection are aerosols from upper respiratory tract infections, which is why bars and churches are such strong outbreak centers. Both talking loudly over the din and belting out a good hymn are excellent ways to spread the infection.

But surgical masks are better, since they are more effective at keeping the virus inside the mask, and pm2.5 N95 masks even better, since when you get the primary channels under control, the secondary channels like surface to hand to mouth or eyes are much less well regulated by the masks itself and rely on repeated and effective hand washing to keep in check.

Be careful of listening to the media at face value. These are the people that have wall to wall coverage of hurricanes, and when the storm turns into a cupcake, they put their reporters out there pretending to struggle to stand in 25 mph winds.

(06-22-2020 10:23 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  A couple of things you won't hear in the mainscream media:

1. Both deaths and rate of positive tests are going down.
2. New cases are skewing a lot younger than they were, which means less saturation of hospital beds and ICUs.

That's not true in Arizona - more testing, but rate of positive tests are going up.
Rate of Hospitalization is going up, and ICU's are nearing capacity. Multiple Hospitals have expanded ICU capabilities, and still pushing the limits.

(06-22-2020 10:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 09:54 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  What spikes?

Yesterday there were 267 deaths reported in the USA, the lowest since March 23rd.

You have to remember - according to the sensationalizing media reports, its "cases" that matter, because that makes everything look bad, which politically hurts you-know-who.

Exactly.

(06-22-2020 11:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Not a shock to me. With the media hyping up these homemade masks as being the equivalent of a level A hazmat suit and the people wearing the useless things are ignoring any concept of social distancing and are constantly fidgeting with these Petri dishes they are wearing on their face then contaminating everything else they touch.

Young people have decided its all overblown. Or that they can do anything they want if they wear a homemade mask. They aren't going to stay locked up any longer. And everybody but the brain dead knows you can't believe what you hear in the media.

In any event, its not feasible to keep everything locked up. There are good arguments that the lockup will cost far more lives than the virus will.

(06-22-2020 12:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 10:23 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  A couple of things you won't hear in the mainscream media:

1. Both deaths and rate of positive tests are going down.
2. New cases are skewing a lot younger than they were, which means less saturation of hospital beds and ICUs.

That's not true in Arizona - more testing, but rate of positive tests are going up.
Rate of Hospitalization is going up, and ICU's are nearing capacity. Multiple Hospitals have expanded ICU capabilities, and still pushing the limits.

What sources show you that hospitalizations are going up? And what is it going up for? Huge numbers of deferred, non-covid, procedures are being done now. So hospitalizations going up is a good thing. Hospitals were really suffering financially and many laid off employees.

(06-22-2020 04:16 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Anyone else getting the feeling with these Covid spikes being reported, that our college football season this year is in jeopardy?

I've said this before, I'll say it again:

Even if there are no fans in the stands, the cost of losing TV money for P5 football, or MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, any of those, will be huge.

They'll play as long as the cost of not playing exceeds the cost of playing.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/...ncy-trend/

Texas Medical Center ICU occupancy - largest medical center in the world I think?

Hospitalizations going up is a good thing? You seriously just wrote that? (directed to Bullet)

Most procedures being delayed that I'm aware of were not requiring hospitalization to begin with - basic check-ups with your doctor and dentist for example. Or at worst same day procedures that don't require an overnight stay at a hospital (which can get incredibly expensive in a very short time even with good insurance - and I bet you most 20-30 year olds don't have great insurance).

(06-22-2020 01:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 04:16 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Anyone else getting the feeling with these Covid spikes being reported, that our college football season this year is in jeopardy?

I've said this before, I'll say it again:

Even if there are no fans in the stands, the cost of losing TV money for P5 football, or MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, any of those, will be huge.

They'll play as long as the cost of not playing exceeds the cost of playing.

MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL may not play the rest of this year because a lot of athletes and staff tested positive. There are more ADs and officials in the NCAA are now saying college football and other sports may not take place this year.
Even NASCAR getting positive cases already.

(06-22-2020 01:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 01:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 04:16 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Anyone else getting the feeling with these Covid spikes being reported, that our college football season this year is in jeopardy?

I've said this before, I'll say it again:

Even if there are no fans in the stands, the cost of losing TV money for P5 football, or MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, any of those, will be huge.

They'll play as long as the cost of not playing exceeds the cost of playing.

MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL may not play the rest of this year because a lot of athletes and staff tested positive. There are more ADs and officials in the NCAA are now saying college football and other sports may not take place this year.
Even NASCAR getting positive cases already.

My brother plays in one of the above leagues and his team had a half a dozen test positive a week ago and it still hasn't gone public. So there's more positives than publicly known.

(06-22-2020 01:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 04:16 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Anyone else getting the feeling with these Covid spikes being reported, that our college football season this year is in jeopardy?

I've said this before, I'll say it again:

Even if there are no fans in the stands, the cost of losing TV money for P5 football, or MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, any of those, will be huge.

They'll play as long as the cost of not playing exceeds the cost of playing.

I think that's probably the mindset they're going with but they also have to keep a killswitch mechanism in mind. What if multiple players from the same team land in the hospital? What if a player dies? I know some people think that if you're under 40 you're immune to the effects of the disease but while their mortality rate is a lot better than people older than 80, it's no guarantee. Certainly not enough of a guarantee for universities, which like most long-established institutions are notoriously risk-adverse. What's the tipping point for stopping play, and what's the point for ending the season outright? I hope they aren't planning to improv their way out of it if/when the time comes, lest they be legally negligent.

(06-22-2020 01:29 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 01:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 04:16 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Anyone else getting the feeling with these Covid spikes being reported, that our college football season this year is in jeopardy?

I've said this before, I'll say it again:

Even if there are no fans in the stands, the cost of losing TV money for P5 football, or MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, any of those, will be huge.

They'll play as long as the cost of not playing exceeds the cost of playing.

I think that's probably the mindset they're going with but they also have to keep a killswitch mechanism in mind. What if multiple players from the same team land in the hospital? What if a player dies?

Hopefully that doesn't happen. That's when the cost of playing exceeds the cost of not playing, and they stop.

(06-22-2020 01:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 01:29 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 01:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 04:16 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Anyone else getting the feeling with these Covid spikes being reported, that our college football season this year is in jeopardy?

I've said this before, I'll say it again:

Even if there are no fans in the stands, the cost of losing TV money for P5 football, or MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, any of those, will be huge.

They'll play as long as the cost of not playing exceeds the cost of playing.

I think that's probably the mindset they're going with but they also have to keep a killswitch mechanism in mind. What if multiple players from the same team land in the hospital? What if a player dies?

Hopefully that doesn't happen. That's when the cost of playing exceeds the cost of not playing, and they stop.

It’s an awful game of chicken, then. At any collegiate level, with that many potential players, the chances of players getting it are high, and probably unavoidable. But how far it has to go to get schools to shut it down? Cases alone won’t stop this unless every team has them simultaneously, but is it really going to have to come to a death?

I suspect the season is cooked just because you have some states who simply won’t test those waters (again). And even if schools fight it on the academic front, those activities...I don’t see them getting these through to the field. Even an empty stadium with just players and refs.

Thank God we've got so many infectious disease experts, pandemic experts and physicians on this message board to tell us what's really what. We're going to show that fu(cking virus who's boss, it's not gonna cut into MY GD liberties![/sarcasm]

USFFan

Turn off the TV, analyze the data.

(06-22-2020 01:22 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/...ncy-trend/

Texas Medical Center ICU occupancy - largest medical center in the world I think?

Hospitalizations going up is a good thing? You seriously just wrote that? (directed to Bullet)

Most procedures being delayed that I'm aware of were not requiring hospitalization to begin with - basic check-ups with your doctor and dentist for example. Or at worst same day procedures that don't require an overnight stay at a hospital (which can get incredibly expensive in a very short time even with good insurance - and I bet you most 20-30 year olds don't have great insurance).

Some hospital officials have said that. I knew someone who got a cancer procedure deferred. My elderly mother has had a procedure deferred for an extended time.

So yes, hospitalizations going up is a good thing. Vacant hospitals are not a good thing.

(06-22-2020 02:30 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Turn off the TV, analyze the data.

Exactly!

As for the colleges, if it wasn't all about TV money, they would defer all fall sports until spring. I'm sure not going to a game this year. Mass marches, football stadiums full of fans and arenas full for basketball or speeches just don't make sense. Going back to work and doing normal activities does.

(06-22-2020 02:20 PM)usffan Wrote:  Thank God we've got so many infectious disease experts, pandemic experts and physicians on this message board to tell us what's really what. We're going to show that fu(cking virus who's boss, it's not gonna cut into MY GD liberties![/sarcasm]

USFFan

LOL


I’m none of the above, but I am a CBRN tech, a hazardous materials technician and team leader, and a subject matter expert on PPE. It was my responsibility to identify the PPE worn by my crews, so I had to know how PPE worked down to an incredibly dull level. The claims being made about the effectiveness of homemade masks aren’t grounded in proven science, and anyone with a working knowledge of how PPE works knows this.


IMO it’s a placebo put in place to alleviate the strain that was on the supply of N95 respirators at the time, but it’s proving to be a bigger liability than positive because as I mentioned above people think that the masks are providing far protection than they are so they ignore the other aspects that do offer meaningful protection like social distancing and washing their hand.

I am a physician.

(06-22-2020 02:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(06-22-2020 02:20 PM)usffan Wrote:  Thank God we've got so many infectious disease experts, pandemic experts and physicians on this message board to tell us what's really what. We're going to show that fu(cking virus who's boss, it's not gonna cut into MY GD liberties![/sarcasm]

USFFan

LOL


I’m none of the above, but I am a CBRN tech, a hazardous materials technician and team leader, and a subject matter expert on PPE. It was my responsibility to identify the PPE worn by my crews, so I had to know how PPE worked down to an incredibly dull level. The claims being made about the effectiveness of homemade masks aren’t grounded in proven science, and anyone with a working knowledge of how PPE works knows this.


IMO it’s a placebo put in place to alleviate the strain that was on the supply of N95 respirators at the time, but it’s proving to be a bigger liability than positive because as I mentioned above people think that the masks are providing far protection than they are so they ignore the other aspects that do offer meaningful protection like social distancing and washing their hand.

Fabric masks serve the same function as sneeze bars at buffets and covering your nose when you cough do. You don't need to be PPE expert to understand that it's point is to keep your germs from infecting others and they've been shown to be pretty effective at that. A higher usage rate amongst the population would slow the spread especially as we're opening up and going out more. I agree that it's not a substitute for social distancing and hand washing but I assume most of the people refusing to wear a mask aren't minding those as well.