Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
ACC revenue gap will get worse
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
nole Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,438
Joined: Mar 2014
Reputation: 103
I Root For: FSU
Location:
Post: #1
ACC revenue gap will get worse
Stewart Mandel

@slmandel
Projecting the next round of Power 5 TV deals, with help from @Navigate_Res. The schools aren't going poor anytime soon.

"There’s a very positive solution on the other side of this.”

Read w/ a free trial.https://theathletic.com/1870731/2020/06/16/college-football-television-contract-rights-power-5-big-ten-sec-big-12-pac-12-acc/ …

View image on Twitter
06-17-2020 08:11 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


georgia_tech_swagger Offline
Res publica non dominetur
*

Posts: 48,245
Joined: Feb 2002
Reputation: 1527
I Root For: GT, USCU, FU
Location: Upstate, SC

SkunkworksFolding@NCAAbbsNCAAbbs LUGCrappies
Post: #2
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
That article may very well say that .... but nothing you've said there demonstrates it. The ACC isn't even mentioned in front of the paywall.
06-17-2020 08:53 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,285
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 737
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #3
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-17-2020 08:53 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  That article may very well say that .... but nothing you've said there demonstrates it. The ACC isn't even mentioned in front of the paywall.

Perhaps someone who already has a subscription will copy & paste the applicable text - adhering to copyright / fair use laws, of course!
06-17-2020 09:10 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
green Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,297
Joined: May 2014
Reputation: 163
I Root For: Miami
Location:
Post: #4
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
assuming the big12 sticks together ...

BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT
06-17-2020 09:49 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Shannon Panther Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,030
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 200
I Root For: Pitt
Location: Nashville, TN

Donators
Post: #5
ACC revenue gap will get worse
Quick recap. They are using models to predict future revenue for the next 10 years. These models predict huge payouts to the B1G and SEC with smaller increases for B12 and PAC12. They are also projecting a growth in the FBS playoffs from 4 to 8. They project that the ACC will be even with the PAC until 2023. The the PAC cash cow comes in and they pull ahead. In 10 years they project the B1G will distribute $89 million per school while the ACC distributes $51 million. SEC is a close second B12 third with the PAC at about $60 million per.

This is all a model. I give it the same credibility as global warming and Covid 19 models. Garbage in, garbage out.

They do point out that MLB, the NFL, the NHL, and UEFA all have rights renewals coming up before all the college right come so there may not be the pot of gold everyone is expecting.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2020 10:39 AM by Shannon Panther.)
06-17-2020 10:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
cuseroc Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 14,296
Joined: Mar 2005
Reputation: 408
I Root For: Syracuse
Location: Rochester/Sarasota

Donators
Post: #6
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-17-2020 10:35 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Quick recap. They are using models to predict future revenue for the next 10 years. These models predict huge payouts to the B1G and SEC with smaller increases for B12 and PAC12. They are also projecting a growth in the FBS playoffs from 4 to 8. They project that the ACC will be even with the PAC until 2023. The the PAC cash cow comes in and they pull ahead. In 10 years they project the B1G will distribute $89 million per school while the ACC distributes $51 million. SEC is a close second B12 third with the PAC at about $60 million per.

This is all a model. I give it the same credibility as global warming and Covid 19 models. Garbage in, garbage out.

They do point out that MLB, the NFL, the NHL, and UEFA all have rights renewals coming up before all the college right come so there may not be the pot of gold everyone is expecting.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What cashcow are they predicting coming in for the PAC? If the PAC has a cashcow coming in so soon then why were they trying to get investors to invest into the conference, with no takers, I might add? Do they expect them to get some takers, or do they expect the PACN to suddenly catch on? Does the article mention the ACCN at all?
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2020 12:18 PM by cuseroc.)
06-17-2020 12:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


schmolik Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 730
Joined: Sep 2019
Reputation: 22
I Root For: UIUC, PSU, Nova
Location: Philadelphia Suburbs
Post: #7
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
I expect the Big Ten to get a big increase in their media rights. FOX's #1 conference for college football is the Big Ten. I can see them increasing their Big Ten coverage in the next coverage, possibly bidding for all of the conference's first tier rights (ESPN would have a hard time matching now that they have all of the SEC's and already have the ACC's). I don't see the Pac 12 and Big 12 being as much in demand. I think the ACC would be right with the Pac 12 and Big 12 but the difference is their media rights are already locked in until 2036-37. It's good that they are locked in and don't have to worry about defections but they can't renegotiate while the other conferences can.
06-17-2020 03:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,285
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 737
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #8
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
PROBLEM: I don't think anyone (including Mandell) knows that the annual escalator is for the newest version of the ACC TV contract. We really need 2 years of tax returns at a minimum (preferably non-COVID-19 years) to get a read on it.
06-17-2020 04:43 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GTFletch Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,494
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 60
I Root For: Georgia Tech
Location: Georgia
Post: #9
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-17-2020 04:43 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  PROBLEM: I don't think anyone (including Mandell) knows that the annual escalator is for the newest version of the ACC TV contract. We really need 2 years of tax returns at a minimum (preferably non-COVID-19 years) to get a read on it.

Plus there is like two "look ins" for the ACC before we get to 2036.... So yes, there will be a gap between SEC/BIG10 and everyone else... However we should be able to be #3 ... and than in 2036 we should be able to get $$
06-17-2020 05:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 24,698
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 2552
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #10
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
I really don't see revenues in the 80's unless there is a breakaway and then those figures would likely cross conference lines in order to secure a more condensed P quality conference. Think 48-56 if it ever happens.

The SEC is almost a known quantity. We know the new deal, without all details reworked was going to generate 20 million more so that puts the SEC around 67 million plus existing escalators so 70 million isn't out of the question. The Big 10 is at 54 million now and if they get a bump of 10% they'll be just over 60. If FOX goes heavy again and tries to land all of the Big 10's rights they could it that 70 million mark as well. But 70 million is a long way from 87 million.

Both of those conferences deliver the ratings numbers. The Big 12 will not be substantially changed at all. If there is a bump it would be for Oklahoma to make the weakest link stay and would likely come in the form of an overpaid T3 contract. I don't see either FOX or ESPN laying out a lot of cash to hold the Big 12 together since there is only 1 massive football game out of their lineup, Texas vs Oklahoma. They will get a raise because live programming counts, but they won't get a large raise because there is no content multiplication and no increase in market size. They do have a high % of actual viewers to potential viewers but are still third overall behind the SEC and Big 10 respectively.

I also don't see any massive increases for the PAC 12. They lack branding and their viewer participation numbers are the worst of the P5. They aren't adding schools, and theoretically could lose one or two, but I still kind of doubt that happens.

The ACC has a bigger problem. They have the look ins but they don't get a new contract until 2037. College Football is losing audience due to demographic shifts. As Boomers die out, and they will be statistically irrelevant by 2035, their numbers are not being replaced by younger people. The golden era of college football broadcast revenue will peak likely a few years before 2035. Frankly I believe they will peak after 2025's set of contracts. And none of that takes into consideration a lot of turned off fans by all of the SJW stuff going on so expect a modest % of loss in viewership due to that.

So between COVID 19 losses, SJW turnoff, and Boomer attrition the simple truth is those renewing after 2025 are in a hard spot. Most golden eras end suddenly. I believe we are about to witness that in the next 5 years. While that will create an economic pressure for further brand consolidation and the networks will milk that, I think we will see the schools making concessions to keep the same revenue rather than getting more and more. The leverage is about to shift back to the rights holder and audience shrinkage will be the justification for no more raises.
06-17-2020 08:53 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Kaplony Offline
Palmetto State Deplorable
*

Posts: 24,461
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 2470
I Root For: Newberry
Location: SC
Post: #11
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
So the talking point for the #goacc crowd is back to the "look ins" that have thus far not resulted in an improvement in our revenue stream?

SMDH
06-18-2020 12:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


GTFletch Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,494
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 60
I Root For: Georgia Tech
Location: Georgia
Post: #12
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-17-2020 08:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I really don't see revenues in the 80's unless there is a breakaway and then those figures would likely cross conference lines in order to secure a more condensed P quality conference. Think 48-56 if it ever happens.

The SEC is almost a known quantity. We know the new deal, without all details reworked was going to generate 20 million more so that puts the SEC around 67 million plus existing escalators so 70 million isn't out of the question. The Big 10 is at 54 million now and if they get a bump of 10% they'll be just over 60. If FOX goes heavy again and tries to land all of the Big 10's rights they could it that 70 million mark as well. But 70 million is a long way from 87 million.

Both of those conferences deliver the ratings numbers. The Big 12 will not be substantially changed at all. If there is a bump it would be for Oklahoma to make the weakest link stay and would likely come in the form of an overpaid T3 contract. I don't see either FOX or ESPN laying out a lot of cash to hold the Big 12 together since there is only 1 massive football game out of their lineup, Texas vs Oklahoma. They will get a raise because live programming counts, but they won't get a large raise because there is no content multiplication and no increase in market size. They do have a high % of actual viewers to potential viewers but are still third overall behind the SEC and Big 10 respectively.

I also don't see any massive increases for the PAC 12. They lack branding and their viewer participation numbers are the worst of the P5. They aren't adding schools, and theoretically could lose one or two, but I still kind of doubt that happens.

The ACC has a bigger problem. They have the look ins but they don't get a new contract until 2037. College Football is losing audience due to demographic shifts. As Boomers die out, and they will be statistically irrelevant by 2035, their numbers are not being replaced by younger people. The golden era of college football broadcast revenue will peak likely a few years before 2035. Frankly I believe they will peak after 2025's set of contracts. And none of that takes into consideration a lot of turned off fans by all of the SJW stuff going on so expect a modest % of loss in viewership due to that.

So between COVID 19 losses, SJW turnoff, and Boomer attrition the simple truth is those renewing after 2025 are in a hard spot. Most golden eras end suddenly. I believe we are about to witness that in the next 5 years. While that will create an economic pressure for further brand consolidation and the networks will milk that, I think we will see the schools making concessions to keep the same revenue rather than getting more and more. The leverage is about to shift back to the rights holder and audience shrinkage will be the justification for no more raises.

That is a good point, but the ACCN is just getting started.... For Example in 2022 or 2023 Comcast will reneg for Disney/ESPN Channels.... So we will see a bump in ACCN $$ by 2024.... we have two look-ins on top of full distro of ACCN (until Comcast is on Board we are not getting 100% of $$ for the network)...

Plus by 2036 all other TV networks will have reworked their TV deals so we will see more ACCN $$ increase... so again another bump in ACCN TV $$$ for our schools...

Are we going to surpass BIG/SEC by 2036...nope... but we will be third... so 60Mish or about 15-20M shy of teh BIG/SEC sounds about right.... in 2036 and FWD the ACC will have a chance to get a huge Pay Day from Linear TV..Going to be interesting

Do not buy the narrative that the ACC is last in P5 $$$, it is just that the ACC is still being disrespected....by 2036 that will change
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2020 07:11 AM by GTFletch.)
06-18-2020 07:01 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,285
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 737
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #13
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-18-2020 12:59 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  So the talking point for the #goacc crowd is back to the "look ins" that have thus far not resulted in an improvement in our revenue stream?

SMDH

Not for me. The one big plum for these look-ins was the ACCN -- that happened, though we still don't know how much revenue it's bringing to the ACC schools. There may be other things the ACC can do in future look-ins, but I'm thinking they'll be small (no more than $1 million per school per year). At this point, it's about how well the ACC did - or didn't - negotiate this last contract. Since the tax deadline this year was moved from April 14th to July 15th, that delays us getting any financial information for 3 months...
06-18-2020 07:53 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
nole Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,438
Joined: Mar 2014
Reputation: 103
I Root For: FSU
Location:
Post: #14
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-18-2020 12:59 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  So the talking point for the #goacc crowd is back to the "look ins" that have thus far not resulted in an improvement in our revenue stream?

SMDH


It's hilarious isn't it. How does anyone fall for that? Like believing in unicorns.
06-18-2020 08:39 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
nole Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,438
Joined: Mar 2014
Reputation: 103
I Root For: FSU
Location:
Post: #15
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
"Do not buy the narrative that the ACC is last in P5 $$$"

That is a fact.

But it still ignores the real issue. It doesn't matter if the ACC is 4th or 5th. The issues is, the top 2 are outpacing everyone else so much/fast that unless you are like Texas, you will simply fade like the Big East.

Just reality.
06-18-2020 08:41 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Shannon Panther Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,030
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 200
I Root For: Pitt
Location: Nashville, TN

Donators
Post: #16
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-17-2020 12:16 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(06-17-2020 10:35 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Quick recap. They are using models to predict future revenue for the next 10 years. These models predict huge payouts to the B1G and SEC with smaller increases for B12 and PAC12. They are also projecting a growth in the FBS playoffs from 4 to 8. They project that the ACC will be even with the PAC until 2023. The the PAC cash cow comes in and they pull ahead. In 10 years they project the B1G will distribute $89 million per school while the ACC distributes $51 million. SEC is a close second B12 third with the PAC at about $60 million per.

This is all a model. I give it the same credibility as global warming and Covid 19 models. Garbage in, garbage out.

They do point out that MLB, the NFL, the NHL, and UEFA all have rights renewals coming up before all the college right come so there may not be the pot of gold everyone is expecting.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What cashcow are they predicting coming in for the PAC? If the PAC has a cashcow coming in so soon then why were they trying to get investors to invest into the conference, with no takers, I might add? Do they expect them to get some takers, or do they expect the PACN to suddenly catch on? Does the article mention the ACCN at all?
They have a new contract coming up. So the assumption is that they will magically be worth oodles more than they are now.

If California schools do not play football this fall, the PAC could be looking at a low base, incentive based contract that does not markedly improve their current financials IMHO.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
06-18-2020 11:27 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Kaplony Offline
Palmetto State Deplorable
*

Posts: 24,461
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 2470
I Root For: Newberry
Location: SC
Post: #17
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
What happens with the Pac12 is unimportant. They are not our competition.
06-18-2020 12:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
cuseroc Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 14,296
Joined: Mar 2005
Reputation: 408
I Root For: Syracuse
Location: Rochester/Sarasota

Donators
Post: #18
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-18-2020 12:18 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  What happens with the Pac12 is unimportant. They are not our competition.

The PAC was mentioned in the article as well as the conferences that we compete with directly. Nothing wrong with discussing their situation.
06-18-2020 01:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
XLance Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,240
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 254
I Root For: Carolina
Location:
Post: #19
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-18-2020 12:18 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  What happens with the Pac12 is unimportant. They are not our competition.

Well Clemson certainly doesn't have any competition in the State of South Carolina!
06-18-2020 01:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hokie Mark Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,285
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 737
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #20
RE: ACC revenue gap will get worse
(06-18-2020 01:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-18-2020 12:18 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  What happens with the Pac12 is unimportant. They are not our competition.

Well Clemson certainly doesn't have any competition in the State of South Carolina!

I think that's the point - Kap (and other Clemson fans) haven't forgotten the run Spurrier took the Gamecocks on not so long ago. While money doesn't guarantee success - U of SC still has the money - lack of money can prevent success.
06-18-2020 03:46 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2020 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2020 MyBB Group.