I've been working through a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming CFB season and was interested to see how often conferences sent teams to the playoff, and how often multiple teams were sent. The Big Ten and SEC were the only conferences to register multiples > 1% of the time; the Big Ten sent 3 teams 1% of the time and, out of 10,000 simulations, managed to occupy the entire playoff field once, on Sim 9985.

So... I needed to investigate. How could that be possible?

The biggest factor is that the Big Ten cleaned up, out of conference. They went 38-4. The 4 losses were: Rutgers 28 - Temple 32, Maryland 17 - West Virginia 20, Purdue 10 - Memphis 38, and Purdue 21 - Boston College 44. The Big 12 had 8 losses, the SEC 9, the Pac-12 11, the American 17, and the ACC 20.

#5 Clemson's 11-1 performance didn't make the cut, with the ACC batting at "tweener" level, compounded by the fact that their lone loss was to Syracuse, who won the division yet lost to 11-2 Miami (who lost to Michigan State) in the ACC Championship.

#6 Florida had a stellar year, avenging their earlier whooping by LSU (21-50) with an SEC Championship victory over the Bayou Bengals (33-24). But the Gators faced a weak schedule: 3 sub #120 teams, the #6 team in the SEC West (Ole Miss), and 7-5 Florida State. And while LSU was a nice Top 10 victory, the next best was #23 Missouri; Georgia fell to #30.

#8 Utah won the Pac-12 at 11-2, defeating Washington State 31-28. Unfortunately, Arizona State (9-3) was the only other team to break 7 wins.

#10 Notre Dame finished 10-2 with losses to Wisconsin and Clemson.

#11 Iowa State won the Big 12, edging out Oklahoma by a single point in both the regular season and CCG (29-28 and 28-27). The Cyclones suffered a late-season loss to Texas (again by 1 point, 21-22) and an early beat-down to the rival Hawkeyes (17-55).

#12 Cincinnati conquered the American with twin victories over UCF (22-21 and 42-21) sandwiched around a disappointing loss to Temple (24-31). The Bearcats' only other loss was to Nebraska (21-24).

So, who made the playoff?

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State finished the season with 0, 1, and 2 losses respectively, Michigan winning the division in the Game of the Century (24-21). The West was more of a jumble: heading into the final week #5 Iowa, #10 Wisconsin, and #12 Minnesota were all tied at 5-3 with a chance to advance; Iowa alone won.

In the Big Ten Championship, Iowa inexplicably defeated Michigan, 34-28, and took the crown. That same day, #4 LSU bungled their championship game and fell to #7, good enough for an Orange Bowl matchup against Miami.

All 4 Big Ten teams had played each other once already. The committee kept Michigan #1 and pit them in an immediate (1 month later) rematch against the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes won again, by 5. Penn State avenged their mid-season loss to the Buckeyes by a single point and went on to blow Iowa out of the stadium, 49-21, in the National Championship.

Mind you, this is 1 season out of 10,000, but I thought it'd be fun to explore (most are boring and predictable). I may have to re-examine the robo-committee's algorithm, though. They thought 11-1 Clemson was the better team than 12-1 Florida, barely, and mostly because of the Gators' weak schedule. But, head-to-head against Iowa, the committee favored the team that had won their conference. Had the Gators edged Clemson for #5, their fewer losses likely would have catapulted them past Iowa and into the playoff.

In an 8 team playoff it's possible. But we have to remember politics will likely limit it to 2. If the formula is 5 P5 champions, a G5 (when worthy enough) and 2 at-large, it's very unlikely both at-large would come from the same conference. If the 3rd SEC/B1G is very similar to the 2nd in the P12, B12, ACC or B1G/SEC then the 3rd will be passed over for a 2nd. They have to be obviously clear of the 2nd place in all four other conferences.

Now if the G5 is not worthy of a bid, and you have 3 at-large, then it's much more likely a 3rd school can get in.

(06-05-2020 11:37 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Could a Conference place 3 or 4 teams into the playoff?

The answer is yes, and the fact that this is so tells us that the CFP system is completely illegitimate and unfair.

To borrow a phrase from Fielding Melisch:

"it's a travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham."

In that scenario in reality, Florida goes. The committee declares their regular season loss that they avenged to be the fluke, and one of the Big Ten teams miss out, likely 2 loss Penn State.

If Arkansas had beaten LSU in the final game of the season in 2011, the SEC would have had #1, #2 and #3. As it was they had #1, #2 and #6.

Big 12 had #2, #3 and #7 in 2008. Texas Tech would have been higher if they hadn't fallen totally apart vs. OU, but not top 4.

Final poll of 1971 had Nebraska #1, Oklahoma #2 and Colorado #3, 3 Big 8 schools.

Lots of cases with two teams in the top 2 or 3. Hard to have 3 in the top 4, but not impossible.

In a 4-team playoff, would I prefer all 4 teams be from the same conference? No. Would most? I suspect not. But, if the 4 best teams are in the same conference, then so be it. Fair has nothing to do with it. In an age of growing conferences, the likelihood will only be higher. With smaller, regional conferences, the odds of getting in 2 teams would seem astronomical.

(06-06-2020 02:41 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In a 4-team playoff, would I prefer all 4 teams be from the same conference? No. Would most? I suspect not. But, if the 4 best teams are in the same conference, then so be it. Fair has nothing to do with it. In an age of growing conferences, the likelihood will only be higher. With smaller, regional conferences, the odds of getting in 2 teams would seem astronomical.

This is like the 1,287th time someone has stated "fair has nothing to do with it" - with absolutely zero logic to support that position.* IMO, fair has everything to do with it. If the playoff is deemed unfair by enough people, the TV ratings will dry up. We watch because we think it's fair and legitimate...

* nothing personal - it's lots of people

(06-07-2020 05:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-06-2020 02:41 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In a 4-team playoff, would I prefer all 4 teams be from the same conference? No. Would most? I suspect not. But, if the 4 best teams are in the same conference, then so be it. Fair has nothing to do with it. In an age of growing conferences, the likelihood will only be higher. With smaller, regional conferences, the odds of getting in 2 teams would seem astronomical.

This is like the 1,287th time someone has stated "fair has nothing to do with it" - with absolutely zero logic to support that position.* IMO, fair has everything to do with it. If the playoff is deemed unfair by enough people, the TV ratings will dry up. We watch because we think it's fair and legitimate...

* nothing personal - it's lots of people

That's why Alabama's mulligan vs. LSU in 2011 got such dismal ratings. Plus, they were really boring teams. Oklahoma St./LSU would have been fun.

(06-07-2020 05:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-06-2020 02:41 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In a 4-team playoff, would I prefer all 4 teams be from the same conference? No. Would most? I suspect not. But, if the 4 best teams are in the same conference, then so be it. Fair has nothing to do with it. In an age of growing conferences, the likelihood will only be higher. With smaller, regional conferences, the odds of getting in 2 teams would seem astronomical.

This is like the 1,287th time someone has stated "fair has nothing to do with it" - with absolutely zero logic to support that position.* IMO, fair has everything to do with it. If the playoff is deemed unfair by enough people, the TV ratings will dry up. We watch because we think it's fair and legitimate...

* nothing personal - it's lots of people

Casual fans watch because they find the games entertaining. Fairness would only come into play if a playoff system was so contrived as to look completely bogus (e.g., if the system officially gave Ohio State and Alabama automatic playoff spots just because they're good TV draws, or if MLB guaranteed the Yankees and Red Sox would meet in the ALCS every year).

Casual fans are not demanding that a playoff system meet some scientific standard of the "fairest possible way to determine a champion".

There have been two years in real life where only 2 conferences would send teams to the playoffs.

2006 would have been Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, and LSU. It's possible that 11-1 Wisconsin or 11-1 Louisville would have jumped 2-loss LSU if that was actually a playoff spot, though.

2008 would have been Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and Alabama. There was a slew of 1-loss teams that year though (USC, Penn State, and Texas Tech) as well as undefeated Boise and Utah. So again, maybe the pollsters would have changed their votes if a playoff spot depended on it.

In 1971, the final poll had 3 teams from the Big 9 as #1, #2, and #3. But they weren't ranked that way before bowl season. In the bowl games, Colorado beat #15 Houston, Oklahoma beat #5 Auburn, and Nebraska cemented its place as arguably the best team of all time by dominating #2 Alabama. It was probably only possible because Colorado and Oklahoma each beat two ranked teams out of conference in the regular season.

(06-06-2020 04:41 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  In that scenario in reality, Florida goes. The committee declares their regular season loss that they avenged to be the fluke, and one of the Big Ten teams miss out, likely 2 loss Penn State.

Yeah, I agree.

2-loss Penn State has a really tough conference schedule - they would have wins over ranked Iowa and Nebraska teams as well as losses to #1 Michigan and #2 Ohio State. But their OOC schedule is Kent State, San Jose State, and Virginia Tech. That's not getting the job done.

But that's still 3 teams from the same conference in the playoff. And it's not impossible.

(06-06-2020 02:28 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-05-2020 11:37 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Could a Conference place 3 or 4 teams into the playoff?

The answer is yes, and the fact that this is so tells us that the CFP system is completely illegitimate and unfair.

To borrow a phrase from Fielding Melisch:

"it's a travesty of a mockery of a sham!"

I think the committee component is the human and political part that treads carefully on this subject and probably doesn’t allow it unless the case is just too strong. We’ve seen two go, and even then, I can imagine the year where Auburn was poised to go with a win, then falling short in the CCG, had implications on another SEC not going instead. But it sure seemed like three SEC schools were all right there.

I can’t see it happening anywhere else but the SEC, though. Parity and conference rules aside, the one thing that caps the Big Ten is its unfortunate timing with its conference’s overall strength and the strength of the overall schedule. Consider how Wisconsin fell out of a playoff spot just for playing a thirteenth game and lost the spot to a team (Bama) that didn’t play that many games nor win any part of its conference or division. Because Wisky was perceived to be weak and Bama that strong.

(06-07-2020 08:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-07-2020 05:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-06-2020 02:41 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In a 4-team playoff, would I prefer all 4 teams be from the same conference? No. Would most? I suspect not. But, if the 4 best teams are in the same conference, then so be it. Fair has nothing to do with it. In an age of growing conferences, the likelihood will only be higher. With smaller, regional conferences, the odds of getting in 2 teams would seem astronomical.

This is like the 1,287th time someone has stated "fair has nothing to do with it" - with absolutely zero logic to support that position.* IMO, fair has everything to do with it. If the playoff is deemed unfair by enough people, the TV ratings will dry up. We watch because we think it's fair and legitimate...

* nothing personal - it's lots of people

Casual fans watch because they find the games entertaining. Fairness would only come into play if a playoff system was so contrived as to look completely bogus (e.g., if the system officially gave Ohio State and Alabama automatic playoff spots just because they're good TV draws, or if MLB guaranteed the Yankees and Red Sox would meet in the ALCS every year).

Casual fans are not demanding that a playoff system meet some scientific standard of the "fairest possible way to determine a champion".

Hokie - I didn't take your comment personal. I understand your point.

I would go so far to say division champions in professional sports shouldn't get automatic passes to the playoffs. They might not be deserving. By the rules of competitive logic, a 2-team playoff should be #1 vs. #2. A 4-team playoff with semifinals should be #1, #2, #3, and #4. When regions, divisions, and conferences get autobids, it doesn't necessitate that, for example, the #1 B1G team is a top 4 team.