The thought popped in my head after listening to the video interview posted with the SWAC commissioner when he said the conference hasn't added anyone since 1999 and hadn't lost anyone in over 50 years. Two questions came to mind: who is stable? what determines stability?

I. Looking towards the future, what is the health of each conference's stability?

Stable: Has never (or not in a long time) lost a member; may or may not have brought on new members recently; no signs of members seeking defection; "destination conference"

Moderately stable: Very little movement from the conference in recent history; most members are long-time members

Unstable: More than average movement, even recent, of schools leaving; some members are long-time members; members are rumored to be looking elsewhere

Highly unstable: High amount of recent to semi-recent movement out of the conference; few, if any, members are long-term members; most, if not all, members are rumored to be looking elsewhere; anything but a "destination conference"

Feel free to reasonably redefine the above.

We have 32 basketball playing conferences. Where do they sit? The Ivy League is the poster child for stability and the MEAC seems to be gaining ground on the WAC as the king of instability.

II) What determines stability?

Is it geographical coherence, academic similarity, on-the-field competitiveness, something else, or a combination?

Stability ratings:

1: Ivy League

























This gap is deliberate














2-30: Rest of Division I
31: MEAC
32: WAC

(06-09-2020 07:33 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Stability ratings:

1: Ivy League

























This gap is deliberate














2-30: Rest of Division I
31: MEAC
32: WAC

Sounds about right.

2 indicators I’d look at:

When did they last lose a member

# of yrs conference has existed / # members lost total

1. Big East
2. WAC
3. SWC

(06-09-2020 07:33 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Stability ratings:

1: Ivy League

























This gap is deliberate














2-30: Rest of Division I
31: MEAC
32: WAC

WCC would like to have a word with you. They haven't lost a member in what, 40 years?

(06-09-2020 10:45 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-09-2020 07:33 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Stability ratings:

1: Ivy League

























This gap is deliberate














2-30: Rest of Division I
31: MEAC
32: WAC

WCC would like to have a word with you. They haven't lost a member in what, 40 years?

Didn’t Seattle U play in the WCC and isn’t this the second time Pacific has been in the conference?

(06-09-2020 11:04 PM)1IvyDog Wrote:  

(06-09-2020 10:45 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  WCC would like to have a word with you. They haven't lost a member in what, 40 years?

Didn’t Seattle U play in the WCC and isn’t this the second time Pacific has been in the conference?

Yes and yes. But Pacific left the conference way back in 1971. And the previous poster was correct, it's been 40 years since Seattle left and they were the most recent school to leave. I think they deserve to be the #2 conference for stability.

So:
1. Ivy
big big gap
2. WCC
not quite so big gap
3-30. everyone else
31. MEAC
32. WAC



Speaking for my own conference...
Going by the original poster's groups, I'd currently put the Summit at unstable after a long period at highly unstable. Most of the schools that really wanted to leave have left. The rest are either comfortable(UND, USD, UNO, WIU, ORU, UMKC), or need an invite that isn't coming(DU, NDSU, SDSU). Unless an FBS conference comes calling, I don't see that much movement in the future. The biggest question mark is WIU and their overall status as a university. And if they leave, Augie is sitting there waiting like an eager lapdog.

The SEC and Big Ten are both up there in stability. The Pac 12 hasn't lost a member since Idaho in 1959 was left out folliwing the dissolution of its predecessor, and rebirth. Although there supposedly are grumblings

1. Ivy
2. WCC
3. SEC
4. Big Ten
5. Pac 12
6-30 everyone else
31. MEAC
32. WAC

Outside of the football-only affiliate members who have been in and out of the conference, the all-sports core of the MAC has been fairly solid for a long time except for losing Marshall and replacing it with Buffalo.

MEAC may be a dumpster fire, but ASun is WAC East. And it’s not like a MEAC school could go there and only park football in Big South. There’s a reason those who have left MEAC for Big South get ALL the Big South benefits.

And while they are further up the pecking order, I do think there is a last-man-standing thing that will take a chunk out of CAA and the A10 if just because of the Big East and AAC. I’ve long thought CAAF by itself is one big defection away from a major crossroad for the entire CAA.

(06-10-2020 05:52 AM)dxdtdemon Wrote:  Outside of the football-only affiliate members who have been in and out of the conference, the all-sports core of the MAC has been fairly solid for a long time except for losing Marshall and replacing it with Buffalo.

MAC's future in I-A was in doubt in the 80's and 90's so wasn't very stable.

The financial argument for staying in 1-A (FBS) has won out in the last 10-15 years with the increased TV money and payday games.

I think we need to see the current 12 lineup maintain through the next round of TV contract negotiations before giving it a long term stable tag.

(06-09-2020 07:45 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  1. Big East
2. WAC
3. SWC

I know this was a joke but the big east is very stable now

The Big Ten hasn't lost a member since Chicago left in the 40s.