(06-03-2020 09:49 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  So let's say UNC and friends and the otherwise geographically convenient and available want to cling to that world and we get a split like:

B1G: +UNC, Duke, UVA, Cuse, BC, Pitt, ND
SEC: +NCST, VT, UofL, Clemson, GT, FSU

Outside looking in: Wake Forest
Wildcard: Miami

That's culturally and geographically and fan interest wise a pretty clean and logical split. The three bridges between those two groups are ND, GT, and Miami. When pressed even lightly ND and GT would fall into those two camps easily. Miami is still genuinely a fit in either pair but also marginal enough to maybe be left behind as a private and far enough away from everything else to be a travel expense but that's offset by it being a juicy recruiting area and destination city.

The SEC needs a second Florida school but not a third. F.S.U. gives us the penetration to have ad leverage in the state.

I'm not sure from the Big 10 people I've spoken with the most notable a department head at PSU that the Big 10 would have much interest in Syracuse or B.C. I'm thinking rejoin the Big East and go indy in football for them or possibly if Texas is trying to build up the Big 12 they get in with a quad for WVU for that market.

I think the Big 10 would take Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame without question and try for Texas and Oklahoma and settle for Kansas and Missouri. But that presupposes that the Big 12 doesn't remain intact. If there is a breakaway I think they might well make it as a unit. Even their privates would be committed.

The SEC's primary interest would be Clemson, F.S.U., N.C. State and Va Tech in this case. if we moved to 20 then Georgia Tech for dominance in Atlanta and Louisville as that natural rival for Kentucky if Kansas isn't available works too.

But in a breakaway don't rule out ESPN's desire to appease Texas and turn the LHN into something profitable. If North Carolina and Virginia got their big boost in the Big 10 and the SEC picked up Va Tech and N.C. State that head shots the ACC and all ESPN loses is UVa and UNC and then only a % of them. Since they've purchased all of the T3 rights to the Big 12 and OU's are up in 2022 should ESPN buy those then moving Clemson, F.S.U., Ga Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh and Louisville to the Big 12 gives them the breadth of market to roll the LHN into a Big 12N, appease Texas by letting them keep their own conference and builds their football content value up to compete favorably with the SEC and Big 10 which both just get market adds without a lot of punch. Duke might be able to wangle a partial deal with the Big 10 or join the Big East with Syracuse, B.C. and Wake.

Miami finds a home and the Big 12 gets games in South Florida growing their recruiting base.

So you have 3 conferences of 16 in the breakaway. ESPN still totally owns 2 conferences and has a stake in the Big 10. ESPN trades way up on content value with these moves and the old end of season SEC vs ACC games is preserved and expanded as SEC vs Big 12 end of season games. That's a much wider reach for selling advertising.

FSU/UF, GaTech/UGa, Clemson/SoCar, Louisville/KY, Kansas/Missouri, Texas/A&M and in the season Texas/Arkansas.

That is a majorly improved use of the football first schools of the ACC. And in order to do this UNC, UVa, N.C.State and Va Tech get massive increases in pay and really represent the biggest overhead of this move however that overhead is mitigated by the Big 10 and SEC presence in those two states of a combined 20 million.

What the PAC does at this point is incosequential.

(06-03-2020 09:49 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  So let's say UNC and friends and the otherwise geographically convenient and available want to cling to that world and we get a split like:

B1G: +UNC, Duke, UVA, Cuse, BC, Pitt, ND
SEC: +NCST, VT, UofL, Clemson, GT, FSU

Outside looking in: Wake Forest
Wildcard: Miami

That's culturally and geographically and fan interest wise a pretty clean and logical split. The three bridges between those two groups are ND, GT, and Miami. When pressed even lightly ND and GT would fall into those two camps easily. Miami is still genuinely a fit in either pair but also marginal enough to maybe be left behind as a private and far enough away from everything else to be a travel expense but that's offset by it being a juicy recruiting area and destination city.

The SEC needs a second Florida school but not a third. F.S.U. gives us the penetration to have ad leverage in the state.

I'm not sure from the Big 10 people I've spoken with the most notable a department head at PSU that the Big 10 would have much interest in Syracuse or B.C. I'm thinking rejoin the Big East and go indy in football for them or possibly if Texas is trying to build up the Big 12 they get in with a quad for WVU for that market.

I think the Big 10 would take Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame without question and try for Texas and Oklahoma and settle for Kansas and Missouri. But that presupposes that the Big 12 doesn't remain intact. If there is a breakaway I think they might well make it as a unit. Even their privates would be committed.

The SEC's primary interest would be Clemson, F.S.U., N.C. State and Va Tech in this case. if we moved to 20 then Georgia Tech for dominance in Atlanta and Louisville as that natural rival for Kentucky if Kansas isn't available works too.

But in a breakaway don't rule out ESPN's desire to appease Texas and turn the LHN into something profitable. If North Carolina and Virginia got their big boost in the Big 10 and the SEC picked up Va Tech and N.C. State that head shots the ACC and all ESPN loses is UVa and UNC and then only a % of them. Since they've purchased all of the T3 rights to the Big 12 and OU's are up in 2022 should ESPN buy those then moving Clemson, F.S.U., Ga Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh and Louisville to the Big 12 gives them the breadth of market to roll the LHN into a Big 12N, appease Texas by letting them keep their own conference and builds their football content value up to compete favorably with the SEC and Big 10 which both just get market adds without a lot of punch. Duke might be able to wangle a partial deal with the Big 10 or join the Big East with Syracuse, B.C. and Wake.

Miami finds a home and the Big 12 gets games in South Florida growing their recruiting base.

So you have 3 conferences of 16 in the breakaway. ESPN still totally owns 2 conferences and has a stake in the Big 10. ESPN trades way up on content value with these moves and the old end of season SEC vs ACC games is preserved and expanded as SEC vs Big 12 end of season games. That's a much wider reach for selling advertising.

FSU/UF, GaTech/UGa, Clemson/SoCar, Louisville/KY, Kansas/Missouri, Texas/A&M and in the season Texas/Arkansas.

That is a majorly improved use of the football first schools of the ACC. And in order to do this UNC, UVa, N.C.State and Va Tech get massive increases in pay and really represent the biggest overhead of this move however that overhead is mitigated by the Big 10 and SEC presence in those two states of a combined 20 million.

What the PAC does at this point is inconsequential. So if the SEC and Big 10 are paying member schools ~70 million and the New Big 12 is paying out in the 60 million range and the system is closed on scheduling so that the Networks get only P games between the P schools everybody wins. We now have a P4 and the champions are AQ for the CFP whether it expands or not. And we likely have conference semis to add even more revenue. I can foresee to satisfy AD's that the 7th home game becomes a replacement of the antiquated Spring game and is played in late August against a local FCS or G5 school. That will be good TV when the networks normally don't have content and the regular season is all content.

And Notre Dame may find a conference that will take them as a partial. My guess is either the Big 10 with Duke or the Big 12.

So Big 10: (ESPN retains 45% of the rights.)
Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

If the Big 10 will take partials then perhaps Duke and/or Notre Dame If not Duke looks to the Big East with Syracuse and B.C. and possibly Wake.

SEC: (ESPN owns 100% of the rights)
Kentucky, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M

Big 12: (ESPN owns 100% of the rights)
Iowa State, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
*Notre Dame as a partial if the Big 10 says no.

The PAC stays the same.

The Big East is added to the breakaway but not for football.

One thing a breakaway could do would be to allow three divisions with division champ and wild card semi-final / CCG, which would make 18 a much more comfortable number.

One thing three six team divisions do is make a locked cross division game more palatable, since you only have five division games annually.

But from the Big 10, Penn State would want to be in the Eastern Division, which would then have Rutgers and Maryland and three more.

That would make the Central Division Ohio State, that school up north, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

That would make the Western division Northwestern, Whiskey, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and one add.

Though I guess if you have to be in an "ACAA" conference to be in the CFP, and that forces Notre Dame to join a conference in football, Illinois slips into the West and Notre Dame is in the Central.

This is all with the footnote that whatever student athlete payment system the "ACAA" has with a player's union, if any of the Big Ten schools are not down with that and elect to remain in the NCAA, that opens up their sport for another add that wants to go ahead with the "ACAA" breakaway. But I reckon they will all end up hiding behind the Big Ten Academic Alliance fig-leaf and go for the money.

(06-03-2020 10:37 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  One thing a breakaway could do would be to allow three divisions with division champ and wild card semi-final / CCG, which would make 18 a much more comfortable number.

One thing three six team divisions do is make a locked cross division game more palatable, since you only have five division games annually.

But from the Big 10, Penn State would want to be in the Eastern Division, which would then have Rutgers and Maryland and three more.

That would make the Central Division Ohio State, that school up north, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

That would make the Western division Northwestern, Whiskey, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and one add.

Though I guess if you have to be in an "ACAA" conference to be in the CFP, and that forces Notre Dame to join a conference in football, Illinois slips into the West and Notre Dame is in the Central.

This is all with the footnote that whatever student athlete payment system the "ACAA" has with a player's union, if any of the Big Ten schools are not down with that and elect to remain in the NCAA, that opens up their sport for another add that wants to go ahead with the "ACAA" breakaway. But I reckon they will all end up hiding behind the Big Ten Academic Alliance fig-leaf and go for the money.

I didn't realize the Allegheny Christian Athletic Association was on the move.

(06-03-2020 09:49 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  So let's say UNC and friends and the otherwise geographically convenient and available want to cling to that world and we get a split like:

B1G: +UNC, Duke, UVA, Cuse, BC, Pitt, ND
SEC: +NCST, VT, UofL, Clemson, GT, FSU

Outside looking in: Wake Forest
Wildcard: Miami

That's culturally and geographically and fan interest wise a pretty clean and logical split. The three bridges between those two groups are ND, GT, and Miami. When pressed even lightly ND and GT would fall into those two camps easily. Miami is still genuinely a fit in either pair but also marginal enough to maybe be left behind as a private and far enough away from everything else to be a travel expense but that's offset by it being a juicy recruiting area and destination city.

Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

(06-04-2020 07:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  I didn't realize the Allegheny Christian Athletic Association was on the move.

Yeah, just like I was surprised when I first learned that Kent State is a member of the MAC, which is the Marketing Association of Creditors ...

... as noted many pages back, the "American Collegiate Athletic Association" aka "ACAA" is just a label that does the "American League" / "National League" thing to the "National Collegiate Athletic Association" to have a shorthand to use for the new P5-driven breakaway collegiate athletic association. It's not a prediction on the actual name ... which the way things go today that might be the Frito-Lay Cheeto's Collegiate Athletic Association.

(06-04-2020 07:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

It's a lot easier for whomever is the prospective basketball championship tournament media partner to build the breakaway on existing conferences, since there are much fewer moving parts.

(06-04-2020 07:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

College athletics has been following the money and nothing else for two decades now. And the math says there's a ton more money left on this ride if you push forward into two leagues.

(06-04-2020 12:47 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 07:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

College athletics has been following the money and nothing else for two decades now. And the math says there's a ton more money left on this ride if you push forward into two leagues.

But does it? The math is not money per conference, it's money per school. It's not entirely clear that there is a ton more money per school for either the Big Ten or the SEC by grabbing like six schools each from the ACC.

(06-04-2020 12:47 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 07:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

College athletics has been following the money and nothing else for two decades now. And the math says there's a ton more money left on this ride if you push forward into two leagues.

If that's true......two leagues, then the logical split is ACC + SEC + the remaining P5 SWC schools that are in the Big 12=32 teams in one conference and the other 32 in the other (B1G + Big 12(( teams that were old Big 8 P5 teams)), and PAC teams)=32.
Notre Dame will remain a partial and more than likely attached to the ACC alliance.

(06-04-2020 12:53 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 12:47 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 07:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

College athletics has been following the money and nothing else for two decades now. And the math says there's a ton more money left on this ride if you push forward into two leagues.

But does it? The math is not money per conference, it's money per school. It's not entirely clear that there is a ton more money per school for either the Big Ten or the SEC by grabbing like six schools each from the ACC.

A return to sensible geographic scheduling which means a greatly strengthened gate. A return of several broken always-a-sellout rivalries. Elimination of several sets of duplicitous bureaucrats in league offices. Disney takes half as long as you ask them to do your distribution even though you're now the one doing all the production on your now brand new school owned video production facilities. That's before you start putting large geographic regions on total monopoly lockdown for college sports on advertising rates. Or stage your own major conference championship events like the old Big 4 tournament. Hey -- now that we're big enough and structurally robust enough to talk about what we're going to create post-NCAA ... who wants to throw overboard a bunch of never profitable sports only there to inflate the cost of Division 1 membership? Who wants to throw overboard enormous NCAA compliance offices to make sure the weight room assistant didn't text message somebody too many times?

In the saga of Disney doing to college sports what it has done to Star Wars .... we are merely exiting the prequel movies and entering the sequel movies.

(06-04-2020 01:02 PM)XLance Wrote:  If that's true......two leagues, then the logical split is ACC + SEC + the remaining P5 SWC schools that are in the Big 12=32 teams in one conference and the other 32 in the other (B1G + Big 12(( teams that were old Big 8 P5 teams)), and PAC teams)=32.
Notre Dame will remain a partial and more than likely attached to the ACC alliance.

The logical split is:

League One: SEC + Big 12's best Texahoma parts + pre-2000s ACC 9 (subbing VT for UMD and leaving WF and possibly Duke behind) - maybe Missouri and Vandy.

League Two: Pac-12 + B1G + ND + optional ACC Northern teams + optional best of rest of Big 12 - maybe Rutgers.

(06-03-2020 10:37 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  One thing a breakaway could do would be to allow three divisions with division champ and wild card semi-final / CCG, which would make 18 a much more comfortable number.

One thing three six team divisions do is make a locked cross division game more palatable, since you only have five division games annually.

But from the Big 10, Penn State would want to be in the Eastern Division, which would then have Rutgers and Maryland and three more.

That would make the Central Division Ohio State, that school up north, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

That would make the Western division Northwestern, Whiskey, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and one add.

Though I guess if you have to be in an "ACAA" conference to be in the CFP, and that forces Notre Dame to join a conference in football, Illinois slips into the West and Notre Dame is in the Central.

This is all with the footnote that whatever student athlete payment system the "ACAA" has with a player's union, if any of the Big Ten schools are not down with that and elect to remain in the NCAA, that opens up their sport for another add that wants to go ahead with the "ACAA" breakaway. But I reckon they will all end up hiding behind the Big Ten Academic Alliance fig-leaf and go for the money.

I absolutely agree that 3 conferences of 18 with a wild card and 3 champs has great potential. But to maintain balance the SEC and Big 10 would have to exclusively expand out of the ACC while the best of the Big 10 and PAC would need to merge.

That means that the Big 10 would expand with 4 to the East. I 'm guessing North Carolina, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Virginia.

The SEC would take Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and N.C. State even though Louisville's number are much stronger than those of the Wolfpack. Being a market duplicate would probably hamper Louisville.

For the merger it would be the 9 AAU schools of the PAC plus Arizona State added to the 7 state schools not named WVU from the Big 12 and either T.C.U. or Baylor.

While the networks would pay handsomely for this consolidation of branding leaving 11 of the current P5 out would make such a move much more difficult.

Moving to 3 conferences of 20 however solves a lot of that. The Big 10 picks up 2 of Duke/Pitt/Miami, the SEC adds Louisville and WVU, and the PAC/Big 12 adds two of Baylor, Oregon State, Brigham Young, or Washington State.

You still have 3 champs and a wild card for the CFP and there is much less contention as those left behind were the by and large the weakest investors in college athletics.

Before GT would leave with that contingent to the B1G a phone call would be placed to Athens and Birmingham.

(06-04-2020 01:21 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Before GT would leave with that contingent to the B1G a phone call would be placed to Athens and Birmingham.

Of course. But the SEC's decision at 18 would be the two major content additions of Florida State and Clemson and the two market additions of N.C. State and Virginia Tech.

Now at 20 Tech could definitely enter the SEC's discussion. Louisville and Tech would be preferable to Louisville and WVU. I would list Miami but if the SEC has F.S.U. they have what they are after in Florida which is a penetration of the college market above the 70% range which means larger ad rates. Miami at that point becomes a private with a great history and little upside financially for the SEC and a school which is not a cultural fit. Have Vanderbilt bow out and Miami and Duke get serious looks.

(06-04-2020 01:21 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Before GT would leave with that contingent to the B1G a phone call would be placed to Athens and Birmingham.

That's odd....the lines must be down....Birmingham is not answering the phone.

(06-04-2020 01:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 01:21 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Before GT would leave with that contingent to the B1G a phone call would be placed to Athens and Birmingham.

That's odd....the lines must be down....Birmingham is not answering the phone.

Birmingham would answer even if Tuscaloosa is making faces behind the person answering.

(06-04-2020 12:53 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 12:47 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 07:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  Isn't it much more likely the ACC sticks together? Occam's Razor.

College athletics has been following the money and nothing else for two decades now. And the math says there's a ton more money left on this ride if you push forward into two leagues.

But does it? The math is not money per conference, it's money per school. It's not entirely clear that there is a ton more money per school for either the Big Ten or the SEC by grabbing like six schools each from the ACC.

There is no question in my mind that with the right combination of schools, the ACC schools would be much more valuable in Big 10 or SEC than ACC (i.e. FSU adds more value in Big 10 than ACC but not necessarily in SEC which already has Florida). Now whether that would improve the average value in the Big 10 or SEC is another question.

(06-04-2020 01:05 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 01:02 PM)XLance Wrote:  If that's true......two leagues, then the logical split is ACC + SEC + the remaining P5 SWC schools that are in the Big 12=32 teams in one conference and the other 32 in the other (B1G + Big 12(( teams that were old Big 8 P5 teams)), and PAC teams)=32.
Notre Dame will remain a partial and more than likely attached to the ACC alliance.

The logical split is:

League One: SEC + Big 12's best Texahoma parts + pre-2000s ACC 9 (subbing VT for UMD and leaving WF and possibly Duke behind) - maybe Missouri and Vandy.

League Two: Pac-12 + B1G + ND + optional ACC Northern teams + optional best of rest of Big 12 - maybe Rutgers.

Logical geographically. Now more logical financially and in terms of recruiting might be splitting the east coast between the SEC and Big 10. You could still have the in-state rivalry games like the SEC and ACC do.

(06-04-2020 01:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 01:21 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Before GT would leave with that contingent to the B1G a phone call would be placed to Athens and Birmingham.

Of course. But the SEC's decision at 18 would be the two major content additions of Florida State and Clemson and the two market additions of N.C. State and Virginia Tech.

Now at 20 Tech could definitely enter the SEC's discussion. Louisville and Tech would be preferable to Louisville and WVU. I would list Miami but if the SEC has F.S.U. they have what they are after in Florida which is a penetration of the college market above the 70% range which means larger ad rates. Miami at that point becomes a private with a great history and little upside financially for the SEC and a school which is not a cultural fit. Have Vanderbilt bow out and Miami and Duke get serious looks.

At 18 or 20 I think Athens wants GT in. It gets difficult to fit in Auburn, Florida and Georgia Tech while Alabama still gets Auburn and Tennessee. Trying to fix it by a division of Florida, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama is just nuts.

(06-04-2020 01:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Logical geographically. Now more logical financially and in terms of recruiting might be splitting the east coast between the SEC and Big 10. You could still have the in-state rivalry games like the SEC and ACC do.

I still stay it's worth more to eliminate the second league office and push away all those teams you don't want to play and add the ones you do in your own backyard and make those stated rivalry games 100% inventory instead of 50%. Think of your division as your conference and your conference as a collective bargainer on behalf of all divisions.