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Poll: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026? (You may vote for more than one option
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Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-30-2020 05:36 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  What about this: "The Big-12 (minus two) Conference" (?)

To more accurately reflect its history, it should be the "Big 12 Minus 4 Plus 2 Conference".
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2020 09:11 AM by Nerdlinger.)
05-31-2020 09:10 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-31-2020 09:10 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(05-30-2020 05:36 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  What about this: "The Big-12 (minus two) Conference" (?)

To more accurately reflect its history, it should be the "Big 12 Minus 4 Plus 2 Conference".

Going back to the days of the Big 8: "Big 8 + 4 - 4 + 2"
05-31-2020 07:31 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-30-2020 01:35 AM)spenser Wrote:  
(05-30-2020 12:27 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(05-30-2020 12:13 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Question:

Can anybody explain why C-USA is viewed as being particularly likely to be affected by realignment by 2026, even moreso than the Big 12 and AAC?

There are those who believe in the fabled CUSA/Sun Belt reorg, so that might be a source of some voters who'd choose CUSA and not necessarily the Big 12 or AAC. You might say then why isn't the Sun Belt vote higher? A minor realignment in which the Big 12 loses only a few members could mean that the trickle-down effect would pass through the AAC but stop at CUSA, which has members to spare, before reaching the Sun Belt. And then there are those who may think the only realignment will be due to the AAC replacing UConn, and the likeliest replacements are in CUSA.

The most likely if AAC doesn't get a rule change for Divisionless and decides not to play uneven Divisions( 6&5). UAB is a easy fillin 12th team. Would be a 2nd level team 6-10th place in FB and at large range for Basketball. Both would be upgrades from what UConn was for the AAC.

I dont see how you get there. UAB would be no better than any other MAC./SB/CUSA G5 option---perhaps worse than many. Given the long term track record, UAB is actually a pretty risky choice. One thing worth noting when it comes to UAB as the best AAC option---The only AAC team that has played or bothered to schedule UAB since the AAC began play in 2013 is Tulane....That was a two game home and home series that finishes in 2021. No other AAC has scheduled UAB. It also instructive to note that Tulane has scheduled another Alabama G5 (S Alabama) twice as often as UAB during that same period.

Its not like UAB would be the worst option on earth---but I also dont see much reason to believe UAB is viewed by the AAC as the top pick available. I honestly think the rule change is going to pass and the AAC will be stuck at 11 for a while.
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2020 08:35 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-31-2020 08:14 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-31-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its not like UAB would be the worst option on earth---but I also dont see much reason to believe UAB is viewed by the AAC as the top pick available. I honestly think the rule change is going to pass and the AAC will be stuck at 11 for a while.

It's not a runaway by far but UAB is the top pick in my poll for the AAC's 12th member. But they got just 14.19% of the votes with 24.32% saying the AAC will stay at 11 teams and 16.22% saying a team not specified. The second highest single team was Appalachian State with 12.16%.
05-31-2020 08:23 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-31-2020 08:23 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(05-31-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its not like UAB would be the worst option on earth---but I also dont see much reason to believe UAB is viewed by the AAC as the top pick available. I honestly think the rule change is going to pass and the AAC will be stuck at 11 for a while.

It's not a runaway by far but UAB is the top pick in my poll for the AAC's 12th member. But they got just 14.19% of the votes with 24.32% saying the AAC will stay at 11 teams and 16.22% saying a team not specified. The second highest single team was Appalachian State with 12.16%.

It would be interesting to see your poll results. Is there a link?

UAB has gotten plenty of mentions on the AAC message board, but there are several schools that seem to be preferred. In all cases except for SDSU and BYU, which are strong in both sports, the preference is to add FB-only or non-FB members.

Tier 1:

BYU (FB-only or all-sports): not likely
SDSU (FB-only, due to distance): not likely, due to new MWC contract
Army (FB-only) not likely
Air Force (FB-only): not likely, due to new MWC contract
Colorado State (FB-only): not likely, due to new MWC contract

Tier 2 (less preferred, but more likely to accept an invitation):

App State (FB-only)
Marshall (FB-only)
SUNY-Buffalo (FB-only; possibly all-sports)
VCU (BB/olympic sports)
Dayton (BB/olympic sports)
St. Louis (BB/olympic sports)

Tier 3 (marginal, but might be considered if they improve):

UAB (FB)
Southern Mississippi (FB)
ODU (BB)
Davidson (BB)

Tier 4 (very marginal, would require major improvements):

UMass (FB-only; possibly all-sports)
Charlotte (FB)
Georgia State (FB)
Rice (would only be considered because Rice is AAU & was SWC)
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2020 10:25 PM by jedclampett.)
05-31-2020 09:10 PM
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spenser Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-31-2020 09:10 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(05-31-2020 08:23 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(05-31-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its not like UAB would be the worst option on earth---but I also dont see much reason to believe UAB is viewed by the AAC as the top pick available. I honestly think the rule change is going to pass and the AAC will be stuck at 11 for a while.

It's not a runaway by far but UAB is the top pick in my poll for the AAC's 12th member. But they got just 14.19% of the votes with 24.32% saying the AAC will stay at 11 teams and 16.22% saying a team not specified. The second highest single team was Appalachian State with 12.16%.

It would be interesting to see your poll results. Is there a link?

UAB has gotten plenty of mentions on the AAC message board, but there are several schools that seem to be preferred. In all cases except for SDSU and BYU, which are strong in both sports, the preference is to add FB-only or non-FB members.

Tier 1:

BYU (FB-only or all-sports): not likely
SDSU (FB-only, due to distance): not likely, due to new MWC contract
Army (FB-only) not likely
Air Force (FB-only): not likely, due to new MWC contract
Colorado State (FB-only): not likely, due to new MWC contract

Tier 2 (less preferred, but more likely to accept an invitation):

App State (FB-only)
Marshall (FB-only)
SUNY-Buffalo (FB-only; possibly all-sports)
VCU (BB/olympic sports)
Dayton (BB/olympic sports)
St. Louis (BB/olympic sports)

Tier 3 (marginal, but might be considered):

UAB (FB)
Southern Mississippi (FB)
Georgia State (FB)
ODU (BB)
Davidson (BB)

Your post basically stated what my post for UAB was expressing. None of the preferred FB only schools are likely.

You have App and Marshall in your list. I don't because the President of Universities will be the ones voting and I believe will not like them. Mainly because of Academics. Personally I don't think either is worth the hassle of partial membership.

If AAC doesn't get a rule change for Divisionless and decides not to play uneven Divisions( 6&5). UAB is top of my list that are interested in coming.

Southern Miss, Georgia State, ODU, Charlotte, and the Buffalo are next on my list as full members.
05-31-2020 10:05 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
This seems like a more accurate representation of the way potential AAC members are regarded on the AAC message board, currently:

Tier 1:

BYU (FB-only or all-sports): not likely
SDSU (FB-only, due to distance): not likely, due to new MWC contract
Army (FB-only) not likely
Air Force (FB-only): not likely, due to new MWC contract
Colorado State (FB-only): not likely, due to new MWC contract

Tier 2 (less preferred, but more likely to accept an invitation):

App State (FB-only)
Marshall (FB-only)
SUNY-Buffalo (FB-only; possibly all-sports)
VCU (BB/olympic sports)
Dayton (BB/olympic sports)
St. Louis (BB/olympic sports)

Tier 3 (marginal, but might be considered if they improve):

UAB (FB)
Southern Mississippi (FB)
ODU (BB)
Davidson (BB)

Tier 4 (very marginal, would require major improvements):

UMass (FB-only; possibly all-sports)
Charlotte (FB)
Georgia State (FB)
Rice (would only be considered because Rice is AAU & was SWC)
05-31-2020 10:28 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
(05-31-2020 09:10 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(05-31-2020 08:23 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(05-31-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its not like UAB would be the worst option on earth---but I also dont see much reason to believe UAB is viewed by the AAC as the top pick available. I honestly think the rule change is going to pass and the AAC will be stuck at 11 for a while.

It's not a runaway by far but UAB is the top pick in my poll for the AAC's 12th member. But they got just 14.19% of the votes with 24.32% saying the AAC will stay at 11 teams and 16.22% saying a team not specified. The second highest single team was Appalachian State with 12.16%.

It would be interesting to see your poll results. Is there a link?

Thought I had posted it. Here it is: https://csnbbs.com/thread-897633.html
06-02-2020 05:43 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?
UAB is 2 years removed from shutting down the FB program. They should be on no ones list. Lets see what happens when the newness of their stadium wears off.
06-02-2020 07:10 AM
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