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Beware the experts
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Post: #1
Beware the experts
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl...43246.html

"Shortly after the 2016 election, an editor from my alumni magazine emailed to say she was putting together a collection of essays exploring Donald Trump’s presidency and asked if I’d be willing to contribute an article on “lessons learned” from the election. My piece, titled “Beware the Confident Experts,” appeared in the March 2017 issue of the Princeton Alumni Weekly and laid out the case for the why the polls weren’t nearly as wrong in 2016 as the pundits were.

I went back through the data to show the race was objectively close, but that’s not how it was presented to the American people by the supposed experts. I wrote:

Heading into Election Day, most Americans were convinced Hillary Clinton would win, and they would not have characterized the race as “close” or “competitive.” And no wonder. Everywhere they looked in the weeks leading up to Election Day there was some “expert” on television, on the internet, on the radio, or in the newspaper declaring with complete confidence that Trump had little or no chance to win the election...."

Those of us on the board knew it would be close because we looked at the data and not the experts.

The author points out that media hasn't learned anything. We have a totally unprecedented situation and "experts" are confidently predicting the same things they did in 2016 and got wrong.

I think this applies very much as well to the medical experts.
05-20-2020 01:05 PM
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RE: Beware the experts
http://www.alexberenson.com/commentary-w...out-covid/

Ran across this commentary that is more about the media, but fits the theme of the previous article.

"(Note: I first posted this thread on Twitter, but given its length I decided to run it as a single page here. Also: “Blue-checks” is Twitter slang for people with verified accounts, who are often prominent reporters. As is sometimes pointed out, I also have a blue check, though I am no longer part of the media establishment.)



I’ve thought a bit about why the media blue-checks hate me so (and, let’s be honest, they do hate me so). I’m nobody, really; I don’t have a primetime news show or a syndicated column; I have all of 103,000 followers on Twitter. But I am a particular burr for three reasons:

I’m a class traitor. Not just because I worked for The New York Times for 10 years and wrote lots of hardball pieces about companies (not to mention our failures in Iraq) that make me tough to dismiss as a right-wing nutter, much as they’d like to try.

No, I’m a class traitor in another, arguably more important way, too; the media/academic left tries to cudgel its opponents with an attitude of mocking scorn and intellectual superiority. The President has been a useful foil for them in this (as they have been for him)....

We should all be THRILLED about this fact, but too many of us aren’t. So the media (and the lockdown governors) are stretching further and further to try to scare people – the recent pediatric stuff being only the grossest example. I’m going to keep calling them out. Plenty of other people will too, but not necessarily as aggressively...."
05-20-2020 01:09 PM
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Post: #3
RE: Beware the experts
(05-20-2020 01:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl...43246.html

"Shortly after the 2016 election, an editor from my alumni magazine emailed to say she was putting together a collection of essays exploring Donald Trump’s presidency and asked if I’d be willing to contribute an article on “lessons learned” from the election. My piece, titled “Beware the Confident Experts,” appeared in the March 2017 issue of the Princeton Alumni Weekly and laid out the case for the why the polls weren’t nearly as wrong in 2016 as the pundits were.

I went back through the data to show the race was objectively close, but that’s not how it was presented to the American people by the supposed experts. I wrote:

Heading into Election Day, most Americans were convinced Hillary Clinton would win, and they would not have characterized the race as “close” or “competitive.” And no wonder. Everywhere they looked in the weeks leading up to Election Day there was some “expert” on television, on the internet, on the radio, or in the newspaper declaring with complete confidence that Trump had little or no chance to win the election...."

Those of us on the board knew it would be close because we looked at the data and not the experts.

The author points out that media hasn't learned anything. We have a totally unprecedented situation and "experts" are confidently predicting the same things they did in 2016 and got wrong.

I think this applies very much as well to the medical experts.

The bold was by no chance happenstance. IMO, it was all planned. Fortunately, the plan failed. The reaction from the left since the election is directly proportional to their inability to comphrehend why their plan failed.
05-20-2020 01:21 PM
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