https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4985...ing-bubble

Critique of Powell. Mainly including because of his prediction:

"...Powell believes that this time around we could have a quicker economic recovery than we did following the 2008-2009 Great Recession.


Indeed, Powell believes that the U.S. economy could fully recover by the end of 2021, notwithstanding the very much deeper economic recession that we are now experiencing than in 2008-2009. ..."

Personally, I am doubtful. Small businesses have had their capital destroyed. People will not go back to the exact same habits for a long time if ever, meaning restaurants and entertainment facilities will suffer. Brick and mortar retail has had a decade of decline condensed into months. That shock will take a long time to recover. That means real estate will suffer, meaning construction will suffer.

2008 was a simple real estate bubble that bad policies by Obama prolonged. This is putting a crunch in a number of sectors. The Fed deals mainly with big companies and I think that distorts their view of how quick things recover.

It all starts with a basic premise - what about the level of production and services provided in January 2020 do you believe is no longer necessary in September 2020?

It may not be the same people running the same businesses and employing the same people, but the total sum of wants and needs will return, so the level of production and services will also. The recession of 08-09 was much, much more than a real estate bubble. I would argue that this is nothing but an unjustified panic and easier to overcome because there was no underlying economic condition to cause it.

(05-20-2020 01:14 PM)banker Wrote:  It all starts with a basic premise - what about the level of production and services provided in January 2020 do you believe is no longer necessary in September 2020?

It may not be the same people running the same businesses and employing the same people, but the total sum of wants and needs will return, so the level of production and services will also. The recession of 08-09 was much, much more than a real estate bubble. I would argue that this is nothing but an unjustified panic and easier to overcome because there was no underlying economic condition to cause it.

Who will provide it? Who will have the capital? Who will have the spending money?

And a vast amount of our economy is based on wants, not needs. People don't need so many clothes. Think about what people had in the 1960s. If people don't have money they are going to limit themselves to needs, not wants.