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Changes resulting from Pandemic
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posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Offline
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Post: #161
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
Here's a small snippet of an earlier story out of Germany. I won't post the details for simplicity.
This is just s short excerpt from a story in the NY Times:

The team also analyzed a group of 47 infected children between ages 1 and 11. Fifteen of them had an underlying condition or were hospitalized, but the remaining were mostly free of symptoms. The children who were asymptomatic had viral loads that were just as high or higher than the symptomatic children or adults.

“In this cloud of children, there are these few children that have a virus concentration that is sky-high,” Dr. Drosten said.

He noted that there is a significant body of work suggesting that a person’s viral load tracks closely with their infectiousness. “So I’m a bit reluctant to happily recommend to politicians that we can now reopen day cares and schools.”
08-28-2020 02:26 AM
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Flippmb Offline
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Post: #162
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
(08-14-2020 01:41 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  June 17 was two months ago. Young person-deaths have *really* spiked since then. Yes, they're still less likely to be affected than oldsters, but that gap has narrowed A LOT. One can find tons and tons of reporting on that.

I'm still hoping you have a source and/or the figures for your statement that young person deaths have really spiked. It may be a stretch, but if there are "tons of reporting" on this, I would assume the reporters had hard data. I'm hoping you can provide a link to something like an accessible, sortable CDC database (if such a thing exists and is available to to the public).

The best I can figure, piecing together the available data that I can find, out of 185,000 Covid deaths to date in the U.S., 667 came from the age group 0-24. Notably, that's about 10% of the average 6800 suicide deaths each year in this age group, which is about equal to our conservatively estimated increase in suicide deaths for this age group resulting from our actions related to this disease.

And, obviously, that number still trails the around 1000 deaths from flu for this age group in a typical year. It's possible, maybe even probable, Covid deaths in this age group will eventually eclipse those from flu, but it doesn't appear it will be by a significant factor.

Again, I want to get this right, and I'm open to new data or corrections to flaws in my logic. But, right now, it sure seems to me the damage we are doing to this age group far exceeds the benefits.
08-28-2020 10:05 AM
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posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Offline
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Post: #163
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
(08-28-2020 10:05 AM)Flippmb Wrote:  
(08-14-2020 01:41 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  June 17 was two months ago. Young person-deaths have *really* spiked since then. Yes, they're still less likely to be affected than oldsters, but that gap has narrowed A LOT. One can find tons and tons of reporting on that.

I'm still hoping you have a source and/or the figures for your statement that young person deaths have really spiked. It may be a stretch, but if there are "tons of reporting" on this, I would assume the reporters had hard data. I'm hoping you can provide a link to something like an accessible, sortable CDC database (if such a thing exists and is available to to the public).

The best I can figure, piecing together the available data that I can find, out of 185,000 Covid deaths to date in the U.S., 667 came from the age group 0-24. Notably, that's about 10% of the average 6800 suicide deaths each year in this age group, which is about equal to our conservatively estimated increase in suicide deaths for this age group resulting from our actions related to this disease.

And, obviously, that number still trails the around 1000 deaths from flu for this age group in a typical year. It's possible, maybe even probable, Covid deaths in this age group will eventually eclipse those from flu, but it doesn't appear it will be by a significant factor.

Again, I want to get this right, and I'm open to new data or corrections to flaws in my logic. But, right now, it sure seems to me the damage we are doing to this age group far exceeds the benefits.

I fear we're missing our points here. Table 2A from that pdf file shows children's death's have jumped about 73% since June 17th, the date of the report you cited. Yes, that's still a very small minority of total deaths. My point was that the earlier misconception (by all) that children were somehow immune, or nearly so, was a faulty "data point". Clearly they're less susceptible than adults, as all the research has shown.

I'm not at all sure why you're conflating COVID deaths with suicide. I would agree that COVID deaths for children may not (or may) eventually equal flu deaths for that same cohort. Likely not. Children are more susceptible to those viruses, apparently. But it seems that maybe you're missing the greater point that children are vectors, and maybe *the* 'best' vector for the spread of it. If children were in their own world, and didn't interact with teachers, parents, grandparents, guardians, coaches, etc., etc............then we'd have a WHOLE different discussion. But they do not exist in a vacuum. We're trying to stop this thing altogether, not just in children. I think that point seems to be being missed by you "let's-get-back-to-school" folks. I don't at all disagree with the motive. I'm a HUGE public school fan -- but it's a lot like the Trojan horse. The horse itself is innocuous (for the sake of argument here, and pun not intended); it's what's inside that's dangerous.
08-28-2020 02:06 PM
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Flippmb Offline
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Post: #164
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
The suicide INCREASE during the shutdown equals the number of deaths from Covid. I thought it noteworthy that, in this age group, our actions are killing about as many people as the disease. I'm also trying to give some context to just how low the Covid death numbers are for this age group. I could have made other comparisons to an average year:

Cause of Death, Age Group 0-24
Traffic Accidents - 7,000
Suicides - 6,800
Homicides - 5,800
Congenital Anomalies - 5,700
Accidental Poisonings - 5,100
Drownings - 1,200
Kidney Disorders - 1,100
Flu - 1,000
Covid - 667
All Causes - 46,400

It seems to me that emphasizing the increase in a what is a very, very low number, instead of putting into context what is still a very, very low number, is really missing the point.

81% of Covid deaths in the U.S. have been in people 65 and older. That number increases to 93% if we include those who are 55 to 64. We are doing real damage to our young people. Send the kids to school. Let them play ball. And, keep them away from grandma, grandpa, and anyone with an underlying condition.

Right now, we are sacrificing our young for the sake of the old.
08-28-2020 03:33 PM
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posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Offline
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Post: #165
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
(08-28-2020 03:33 PM)Flippmb Wrote:  The suicide INCREASE during the shutdown equals the number of deaths from Covid. I thought it noteworthy that, in this age group, our actions are killing about as many people as the disease. I'm also trying to give some context to just how low the Covid death numbers are for this age group. I could have made other comparisons to an average year:

Cause of Death, Age Group 0-24
Traffic Accidents - 7,000
Suicides - 6,800
Homicides - 5,800
Congenital Anomalies - 5,700
Accidental Poisonings - 5,100
Drownings - 1,200
Kidney Disorders - 1,100
Flu - 1,000
Covid - 667
All Causes - 46,400

It seems to me that emphasizing the increase in a what is a very, very low number, instead of putting into context what is still a very, very low number, is really missing the point.

81% of Covid deaths in the U.S. have been in people 65 and older. That number increases to 93% if we include those who are 55 to 64. We are doing real damage to our young people. Send the kids to school. Let them play ball. And, keep them away from grandma, grandpa, and anyone with an underlying condition.

Right now, we are sacrificing our young for the sake of the old.

Gee you're mixing and conflating a bunch of stuff. First of all, that chart shows all deaths up thru age 24. We're talking about kids up to only 17 or 18 - and beginning at about age 5 or 6. So we need to cut those numbers way down. Like nearly in half if we're going to compare them to school-age children - which is what we're doing. Second of all, I think it's a huge leap to say "our actions are killing about as many people as the disease". To say shutdowns and mask wearing and school closings are "killing" kids is WAY too big a leap. Are some kids committing suicide because of the shutdowns, etc.? Probably. But how many of those were fragile and the next relationship breakup would have caused it anyway? Of course no way to tell. But more germane..............how could we tell whether the 'cause' was missing school, vs. the overall anxiety and stress of the pandemic itself? ["Mom.........there's nothing to DO!"] We can't. In fact, I'd almost bet the latter - but that would entail *me* making a leap of logic, so I won't.
(Imo) it's totally irresponsible and incorrect to say that "our actions" are causing those suicides. In fact, that's about TWO leaps in logic.

As to the context data.......all fine and good (with adjustments to account for the age discrepancies), but again, to compare these things is conflating different actions and results. Because 7,000 kids (and it'd of course be good if you quoted the source) die in car accidents, it's ok to let more die - and more in their families die by opening up schools? ALL unnecessary deaths should be minimized (within reason - and that's probably where'd we'd differ). Because 1000 die from flu, we shouldn't try to prevent those, or other deaths? It's ok to lose 1000 (or even 10!) to COVID because 5,700 die of congenital abnormalities? The 'logic' of that argument is lacking. Well - absent, really.
When a dozen or two young children die in cribs because they get choked on the rails, things get changed. When enough kids die from choking on small toys, things get changed. When enough small children die in car crashes due to not being able to be restrained, things change. Even if when those car seats don't work well, enough.......things even change then. There are people working on solutions to keep kids from dying in hot cars. I.e., things change. ALL deaths that can be prevented should be.

You say, "keep them away from Grandma, etc.". Good luck with that. One could argue that that might just be worse, from an emotional point of view. Many kids are *raised* by their grandparents. Or at least spend time with them after school while both (IF there are two) parents work.

You say "we are sacrificing our young for the sake of the old". While there's actually some truth to that, likely, the converse is "we are sacrificing our old for the sake of our young". While that's a philosophical/moral question................try posing that to a state legislator, governor, mayor, etc. You won't get very far with that stance or even concept. If we were in a starvation situation where those kinds of decisions needed to be made, that's one thing; but that's not where we are.

In other words, and very importantly..............this is NOT a binary decision - and it's very misleading and pejorative to try and paint it as such. It does not have to be one or the other. We can keep Gramps and Junior both alive! Your argument is strictly flawed by trying to make that a simple either/or decision.

So I feel that *you* are missing the point. Well, really, you're only missing part of it - but the most important part. We don't know what 'damage' we're causing kids by having schools closed, wearing masks, etc. Kids are VERY resilient. I suspect you know that. While I can see the attempt to connect those things to a suicide, the evidence in just not there - and I would say irresponsible to connect them that way.
(And I have seen other authors trying to make that correlation, but I feel it's very misguided.)

To delay in-person school a few months to save, oh, 10-20-30,000+ lives (purely a wild guess just used for argument's sake; there's no way we could ever know) seems like a VERY small price to pay. And remember..........it's not like they're totally missing out on learning. While remote learning is a very imperfect substitute, it's not like they're sitting still academically. Not to mention, there *are* advantages to learning at home in many cases. Sure, it's a mixed bag, but it's so very far from a total loss.
08-29-2020 03:01 AM
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posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Offline
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Post: #166
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
Declaration: I just want to say that I've tried very hard to educate here, and I myself have tried to be open-minded on these topics. I do *not* have all the answers; but I bet I do have the broadest and deepest knowledge base on this coronavirus. That doesn't mean my decisions about what to do about it, or how society should 'proceed' are fail-proof. I've just been trying to give the best guidance that I could based on the science and evidence. But I've spent FAR too much of my precious time on this. My earlier decision when you all were discussing it in the Spring was correct - to just not get involved. And now that I have, it's been too much of a time sink.
I am not "running away", and will still check in - and maybe or maybe not try and give *succinct* input - but I believe my contribution in terms of weighty verbose information may be at an end. At least that's my plan for now. And no doubt some of you are happy about that. 02-13-banana

I'm a major contributor on another forum with more scientific and medical people.......and thought long and hard about somehow allowing you all access to that. But I could never get myself at peace with that. In some ways it would have been a violation of trust, because there are very personal situations being discussed there. It just wasn't workable. Kinda too bad, but that's just the way things are sometimes. I only bring this up to demonstrate that I've really been trying to provide just a bit of a public service. I hope I've a least done that to some extent.

This *will* be (mostly) behind us at some point. Probably in a year or two. It will not go away, but will become endemic rather than pandemic. It will continue to kill people long into the future (but at a gradually-diminishing rate) - and then at some point in time (and likely MUCH sooner than the 102-year gap like between the "Spanish flu" and this one), there will be another, different one. (Which is not to say that their haven't been other, smaller ones in the meantime.)
08-29-2020 03:24 AM
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posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Offline
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Post: #167
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
Oh..............btw...........I almost posted these two items back in the Spring. I strongly urge all here to read them carefully. They may not change your mind -- or maybe they will:

ounce of prevention worth a pound of cure?

"For cities with the most aggressive interventions, there’s no trade-off apparent in this data between saving lives and hurting the economy."

(And yes, I know............things aren't all the same, but still.................I think the "lesson" is still accurate.)

---------------------------------------

Is the cure worse than the disease?

"We don't balance saving the people against saving the economy.
It turns out, we save the economy by saving the people........the economy is the people in it."
"It's not just that there is no tension between protecting people from coronavirus and protecting the economy — they are the same thing."
.....the more you do, the more determined and patient you are, the better for people & the economy."


(Fishman is an author and business journalist.)

So................as I said two posts ago..........it is NOT a binary decision; it's not "either/or".
08-29-2020 03:53 AM
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Flippmb Offline
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Post: #168
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
You raise some valid points (and some not so valid) about my being unable to prove the reasons for the increase in suicides, but if we are limiting our discussion to ages 5-17, that issue is mostly moot. In this age group, we would be more on point to consider the increase in accidental poisonings as kids are kept cooped up in their homes — homes newly stocked with all kinds of sanitizers and antiseptics. (I can't find the hard data for this, but, as you say, it has been "widely reported.")

[Note: One of the problems I have is finding good data with the desired breakdown. That's why I hoped you might have access to and/or be able to provide a link to a sortable database (again, if such a thing exists.)]

I used figures through age 24, because I wanted to include college students and athletes in the discussion. I listed other causes of death to emphasize the low risk of death in this age group from Covid. Limiting the conversation to younger ages brings the number of Covid deaths way, way, way down, and I think my argument is strengthened.

Available CDC data for the age group 5-14 shows a total of 28 Covid deaths as of 8-26-20. Further data indicates 24 of those 28 had underlying health conditions. In other words, there have been a total of 4 deaths of healthy children in this age group. That is infinitesimal.

I think we can stipulate from this point forward that shutting down schools because of Covid, and cancelling sports and other extracurricular activities is NOT being done to protect the kids.

If you agree, then the discussion becomes, what are the benefits and what are the costs associated with closing schools and placing other restrictions on our kids? That's hard to say. We may have to make some dreaded leaps of logic.

I can't estimate the increase in deaths if we reopen our schools, however there is plenty of data on the damage done when kids miss school. Contrary to what you said, it is not "a VERY small price to pay."

Vox Media - Prolonged school closures associated with the coronavirus pandemic are likely to have a major and negative affect on children’s learning, according to a wide range of experts — leaving some students behind academically for years to come, and even leading to meaningful lost income over the course of their lifetimes.

The Atlantic - Missing just two days a month of school for any reason exposes kids to a cascade of academic setbacks, from lower reading and math scores in the third grade to higher risks of dropping out of high school.

There are reams of further study on this issue. Kids may be resilient, but closing schools and going to online learning will result in lagging academic development, with notable, long-lasting, negative effects on kids' nutrition and emotional and social development.

Obviously, I believe we owe it to the kids to reopen the schools. Give those with at-risk household members the option of learning online. Check everyone's temperature each day and set up other protocols to mitigate the risks, while following as normal a routine as possible.

My opinion could change if new evidence emerges. However, many European and Asian schools have been reopened for months, and they remain open. And, the results there look very hopeful.
08-29-2020 10:48 AM
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Flippmb Offline
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Post: #169
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
(08-29-2020 03:24 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Declaration: I just want to say that I've tried very hard to educate here, and I myself have tried to be open-minded on these topics. I do *not* have all the answers; but I bet I do have the broadest and deepest knowledge base on this coronavirus. That doesn't mean my decisions about what to do about it, or how society should 'proceed' are fail-proof. I've just been trying to give the best guidance that I could based on the science and evidence.

I appreciate your high-quality input and the time and effort you have put forth on our behalf. I'm certain everyone on this board feels the same way. And, I hope you don't think I'm simply being a contrarian. I'm especially open to new and/or better data, and to any information I don't already have and/or cannot find. Only a fool ignores the experts.

However, I also think it is foolish to unquestioningly follow the advice of experts. That opinion was recently reinforced when "experts" in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and elsewhere advised sending elderly Covid patients back to their nursing homes, wherein any layman could have predicted the disastrous results that followed.

It's not just a matter of the experts sometimes being wrong, which, of course, they are. By and large, I trust the health experts' opinions about the medical facets of Covid-19. But, this pandemic has other wide-ranging and far-reaching aspects, which I believe are too often given short shrift by those in the medical field. It is with regard to the actions in those areas I am most likely to push for explanations and justifications.

Again, thank you for your valuable input and your time and effort. It is appreciated.
08-29-2020 11:46 AM
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Efan Offline
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Post: #170
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
Someone explain to me why it’s ok for all these protestors outside of the Kentucky derby to be crowded around each other, shouting, and marching up and down the streets, but you can’t have fans in the stands wearing masks. What’s the difference?

I watched a high school football game on TV the other night and you could count on one hand the number of people in the stands wearing masks. But yet it’s unsafe to have in person school. Those students were standing on top of each other yelling and screaming, and hardly any masks. But don’t let them sit in a classroom together.

And you can have all the laptops and broadband access you want, but many of these students still aren’t getting an education. Many of their parents wouldn’t even help them with their homework before all this, much less make sure they’re attending their online classes while the parent is working. This is further widening the education gap between the haves and have nots. Those kids who are wealthier and one parent stays home for example will be much further ahead than others because of this double standard quarantine we have. Bottom line is Americans just aren’t going to follow the rules you make, and they don’t have to because of the US Constitution. Right or wrong, you can’t make them, so we need to just stop pretending.
(This post was last modified: 09-06-2020 08:38 AM by Efan.)
09-06-2020 08:37 AM
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BucDoctor Offline
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Post: #171
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
UT has 44 players out. Postpones scrimmage.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...layers-out
09-07-2020 01:31 PM
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Buc66 Offline
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Post: #172
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
Virginia adds Abilene Christian, but will play home games with no fans with the exception of player families and coaches.


https://www.streakingthelawn.com/2020/9/...aliers-uva
09-07-2020 04:09 PM
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brock20 Offline
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Post: #173
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
UArizona: COVID-19 rerun tests reveal some student-athletes, others had false-positive results

https://www.kgun9.com/news/coronavirus/u...ve-results
09-07-2020 04:11 PM
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brock20 Offline
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RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic

09-07-2020 04:15 PM
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BaseballPops Offline
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Post: #175
RE: Changes resulting from Pandemic
(09-07-2020 04:15 PM)brock20 Wrote:  

07-coffee3
09-08-2020 01:50 PM
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