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NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
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rath v2.0 Offline
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Post: #1
NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
The prior formula they were using was an utter joke, IMO.

Getting rid of scoring margin and adjusted winning percentage.

Cynic in me will wait to see if the tweak intent is really to make it more fair and representative or to just put their big conference thumb on the scale in a less conspicuous spot.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...t-ratings/
 
05-12-2020 07:51 AM
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BearcatMan Offline
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Post: #2
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
The scoring margin ****** us royally last year...it really didn't make a whole bunch of sense. Winning by 3 at home to a good team was worse than losing by 9 away to them.
 
05-12-2020 09:56 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #3
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
No idea if this will make it better or worse because nobody actually knows the formula for NET. I'd still rather just have a composite of the best predictive metrics for breaking down the quadrants. This will make quadrants a better reflection of team quality. Then separately compare strength of record metrics of teams as well.
 
05-12-2020 10:02 AM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
Quote:The changes will "increase accuracy and simplify" the NET system, according to the NCAA announcement.

The NET will now use just two factors in its evaluation: team value index (TVI) and adjusted net efficiency rating. Team value index is "a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home," while adjusted net efficiency rating accounts for "strength of opponent and location across all games played."

NET rankings and the location of games (home/road/neutral) determine the "quadrant" in which a team's games fall. Quadrant 1 games are considered the top tier of the sport and Quadrant 4 games are considered the least prestigious. A team's performance within the four quadrants are a key point of reference for the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

So, by "simplifying" the metrics is the quality of the overall measure lessened? On paper it all sounds good but in the end it's just a point of reference that the tournament selection committee uses. Don't get me wrong, it's good there is analysis as part of the selection of teams but I wonder how much it really comes in to play depending on what teams and what conferences are involved. Time will tell...
 
05-12-2020 10:06 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #5
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-12-2020 10:06 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
Quote:The changes will "increase accuracy and simplify" the NET system, according to the NCAA announcement.

The NET will now use just two factors in its evaluation: team value index (TVI) and adjusted net efficiency rating. Team value index is "a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home," while adjusted net efficiency rating accounts for "strength of opponent and location across all games played."

NET rankings and the location of games (home/road/neutral) determine the "quadrant" in which a team's games fall. Quadrant 1 games are considered the top tier of the sport and Quadrant 4 games are considered the least prestigious. A team's performance within the four quadrants are a key point of reference for the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

So, by "simplifying" the metrics is the quality of the overall measure lessened? On paper it all sounds good but in the end it's just a point of reference that the tournament selection committee uses. Don't get me wrong, it's good there is analysis as part of the selection of teams but I wonder how much it really comes in to play depending on what teams and what conferences are involved. Time will tell...

This is a good point. I don't really understand their desire to reinvent the wheel when there are good rankings systems already available to them and the ranking system is really just a grouping mechanism for comparing resumes anyways. RPI sucked, but even when RPI was the grouping mechanism the committee mostly got things right.
 
05-12-2020 10:18 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #6
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-12-2020 10:18 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This is a good point. I don't really understand their desire to reinvent the wheel when there are good rankings systems already available to them and the ranking system is really just a grouping mechanism for comparing resumes anyways. RPI sucked, but even when RPI was the grouping mechanism the committee mostly got things right.

The pessimist in me says that using their own system and shrouding it in secrecy is all about control, and the need to control is all about $$$$$.
 
05-12-2020 11:07 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
In other words, if a team like UNC or Kentucky have the metrics of an NIT team, they can justify putting them in the NCAA tournament anyway as long as they have control over the metrics.
 
05-12-2020 11:08 AM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
This will likely boost B10 teams like Purdue last year who were 16-15 or something likewise stellar.
 
05-12-2020 11:58 AM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
There was also NC State that finished 22-11 [9-9 ACC] and had a final NET ranking of 33. They were not selected to the dance and IMO had a solid argument. Of course, there will always be a few deserving teams left disappointed regardless of the selection methods used. I just hope the 36 at-large bids aren't further reduced [purposely or unintended consequences] to limit deserving non-power conference teams.
 
05-12-2020 12:23 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #10
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
The new formula also adds an algorithm which ensures every single Big 10 team will be ranked in the top 50. Also, ETSU is now preemptively eliminated from the bubble.
 
05-12-2020 12:41 PM
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crex043 Offline
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Post: #11
NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
A good ranking system will result in eligibility and seeding being known at the moment throughout the season and immediately upon completion of the last game of the season. There is no place for a selection committee.
 
05-12-2020 07:30 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #12
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-12-2020 07:30 PM)crex043 Wrote:  A good ranking system will result in eligibility and seeding being known at the moment throughout the season and immediately upon completion of the last game of the season. There is no place for a selection committee.

Nah. Someone has to administer the “eyeball test.”
 
05-12-2020 09:54 PM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #13
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-12-2020 07:30 PM)crex043 Wrote:  A good ranking system will result in eligibility and seeding being known at the moment throughout the season and immediately upon completion of the last game of the season. There is no place for a selection committee.

Seriously though, that's the way it should be. Just like the old BCS ratings, which were honestly fine aside from the fact college football needed to expand its championship to more teams. An aggregate of the top rating systems such as Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, and Massey solves a lot of problems in my opinion. It makes the system more transparent and prevents any one rating or group of people from wielding too much influence.
 
05-13-2020 07:58 AM
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natibeast21 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-13-2020 07:58 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  
(05-12-2020 07:30 PM)crex043 Wrote:  A good ranking system will result in eligibility and seeding being known at the moment throughout the season and immediately upon completion of the last game of the season. There is no place for a selection committee.

Seriously though, that's the way it should be. Just like the old BCS ratings, which were honestly fine aside from the fact college football needed to expand its championship to more teams. An aggregate of the top rating systems such as Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, and Massey solves a lot of problems in my opinion. It makes the system more transparent and prevents any one rating or group of people from wielding too much influence.

100% agree and especially with keeping the BCS rankings and just expanding the teams to 4 for college football.

If it ever goes to 8 then auto bid for each P5 (conference champs), 1 auto is for G5 (highest BCS ranking), and two at larges (highest BCS rankings remaining).

All seeding based off BCS rankings.

It’s such a simple and easy fix it blows my mind.
 
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2020 10:01 AM by natibeast21.)
05-13-2020 09:59 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #15
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-13-2020 09:59 AM)natibeast21 Wrote:  
(05-13-2020 07:58 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  
(05-12-2020 07:30 PM)crex043 Wrote:  A good ranking system will result in eligibility and seeding being known at the moment throughout the season and immediately upon completion of the last game of the season. There is no place for a selection committee.

Seriously though, that's the way it should be. Just like the old BCS ratings, which were honestly fine aside from the fact college football needed to expand its championship to more teams. An aggregate of the top rating systems such as Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, and Massey solves a lot of problems in my opinion. It makes the system more transparent and prevents any one rating or group of people from wielding too much influence.

100% agree and especially with keeping the BCS rankings and just expanding the teams to 4 for college football.

If it ever goes to 8 then auto bid for each P5 (conference champs), 1 auto is for G5 (highest BCS ranking), and two at larges (highest BCS rankings remaining).

All seeding based off BCS rankings.

It’s such a simple and easy fix it blows my mind.

It definitely is an easy fix, but unfortunately the folks making money off of these tournaments want full control so they can make match-ups that will get the highest TV ratings. It's a shame that the system can't just be fair for everyone. The people in charge should have the best interests of student athletes in mind, but most of them are only interested in making as much money as possible.
 
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2020 10:26 AM by robertfoshizzle.)
05-13-2020 10:25 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #16
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-13-2020 10:25 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  
(05-13-2020 09:59 AM)natibeast21 Wrote:  
(05-13-2020 07:58 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  
(05-12-2020 07:30 PM)crex043 Wrote:  A good ranking system will result in eligibility and seeding being known at the moment throughout the season and immediately upon completion of the last game of the season. There is no place for a selection committee.

Seriously though, that's the way it should be. Just like the old BCS ratings, which were honestly fine aside from the fact college football needed to expand its championship to more teams. An aggregate of the top rating systems such as Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, and Massey solves a lot of problems in my opinion. It makes the system more transparent and prevents any one rating or group of people from wielding too much influence.

100% agree and especially with keeping the BCS rankings and just expanding the teams to 4 for college football.

If it ever goes to 8 then auto bid for each P5 (conference champs), 1 auto is for G5 (highest BCS ranking), and two at larges (highest BCS rankings remaining).

All seeding based off BCS rankings.

It’s such a simple and easy fix it blows my mind.

It definitely is an easy fix, but unfortunately the folks making money off of these tournaments want full control so they can make match-ups that will get the highest TV ratings. It's a shame that the system can't just be fair for everyone. The people in charge should have the best interests of student athletes in mind, but most of them are only interested in making as much money as possible.

It's not just matchups. It's also that the Big 10 and Pac-12 want to play in the Rose Bowl whenever possible. An 8-team playoff essentially means getting rid of the old Bowl system (along with its parades and traditions) for the top teams.
 
05-14-2020 08:53 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #17
RE: NCAA announce NET formula to be “simplified”
(05-14-2020 08:53 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  It's not just matchups. It's also that the Big 10 and Pac-12 want to play in the Rose Bowl whenever possible. An 8-team playoff essentially means getting rid of the old Bowl system (along with its parades and traditions) for the top teams.

Yeah, I get that. I think they could get creative though to preserve the bowl system. Make the Rose Bowl a 2-game event, with one playoff quarterfinal/semifinal game, plus the traditional Rose Bowl between the best Big Ten and Pac 12 teams that didn't make the playoff.
 
05-14-2020 09:34 AM
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