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Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
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whittx Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-11-2020 04:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(05-11-2020 03:58 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(05-11-2020 02:47 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(05-11-2020 02:23 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the CFL close up shop then Toronto will become the new boogeyman that NFL owners use to get stadiums built the way LA was for 20 years.

New Orleans is the logical franchise to move to Toronto, or Jacksonville.

The NFL cannot pass up a market almost as big as New York

But who's gonna build the stadium, since Rogers Centre only seats 50k.

They’d probably play 2 seasons at Roger’s before a new domed facility was ready.

The question is would it be the Chargers, Jaguars, or Bills moving in?

Won't be the Chargers. They'll be playing in Monterrey MX.
05-12-2020 01:27 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
It’s a shame about Toronto having bad fan support. If you could roll the league into the NFL and keep the good franchises that have fans who show up, problem might be whether those markets share fans with current NFL teams? Of course, nobody might have it worse than teams within a fair drive from Toronto, like Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit.
05-12-2020 01:41 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #43
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 01:41 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  It’s a shame about Toronto having bad fan support. If you could roll the league into the NFL and keep the good franchises that have fans who show up, problem might be whether those markets share fans with current NFL teams? Of course, nobody might have it worse than teams within a fair drive from Toronto, like Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit.

But even the CFL teams with good fan bases (Western 4) are only scraping 30k...and they play with an ideal calendar (June to US Thanksgiving).

Major league sports only work outside of Toronto/Montreal in the NHL (Quebec, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver). The other 3 leagues can do 2 Canadian teams max. The non-Toronto/Montreal markets just don't deliver the viewers needed to sustain an NFL/NBA/MLB franchise.
05-12-2020 02:35 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 02:35 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  But even the CFL teams with good fan bases (Western 4) are only scraping 30k...and they play with an ideal calendar (June to US Thanksgiving).

Major league sports only work outside of Toronto/Montreal in the NHL (Quebec, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver). The other 3 leagues can do 2 Canadian teams max. The non-Toronto/Montreal markets just don't deliver the viewers needed to sustain an NFL/NBA/MLB franchise.


Mosaic Stadium (SSK) only seats 33k. IG Field (WPG) only seats 33k. McMahon Stadium (CGY) only seats 35k. The Brick Field (EDM) seats 59k and is the largest open air stadium in Canada.

There simply aren't that many seats left to draw a higher capacity in Regina or Winnipeg or Calgary.
05-12-2020 03:25 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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Post: #45
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
Let's put this into perspective, North American Metros

19,216,180 = New York
13,214,800 = Los Angeles
9,458,540 = Chicago
7,573,140 = Dallas - Ft. Worth
7,066,140 = Houston
6,722,460 = SF Bay Area (includes San Jose)
6,471,850 = Toronto
6,280,490 = Washington DC
6,166,490 = Miami
6,102,430 = Philadelphia
6,020,360 = Atlanta
4,948,200 = Phoenix
4,873,020 = Boston
4,650,630 = Riverside-Ontario-San Bernadino (should this count as LA?)
4,319,530 = Detroit
4,318,510 = Montreal
3,979,850 = Seattle (no NBA)
3,640,040 = Minneapolis
3,338,330 = San Diego (no NBA)
3,194,830 = Tampa Bay
2,967,240 = Denver
2,803,230 = St. Louis (no NBA)
2,800,050 = Baltimore
2,636,880 = Charlotte (no MLB)
2,691,350 = Vancouver
2,608,150 = Orlando (NBA team, no MLB)
2,550,960 = San Antonio (NBA team, no MLB)
2,492,410 = Portland (NBA team, no MLB)
2,363,730 = Sacramento (NBA team, no MLB)
2,317,600 = Pittsburgh (no NBA)
2,266,720 = Las Vegas (no NBA, no MLB)
2,227,080 = Austin (no NBA, no MLB) Texas Longhorns
2,221,210 = Cincinnati (no NBA)
2,157,990 = Kansas City (no NBA)
2,122,270 = Columbus (no NBA, no MLB) Ohio State Buckeyes
2,074,540 = Indianapolis (no NBA)
2,048,250 = Cleveland
2,023,230 = San Juan, PR (hum)
1,934,320 = Nashville (no MLB)

// others

1,575,180 = Milwaukee (Packers)
1,270,530 = New Orleans (no MLB)
1,127,980 = Buffalo (no MLB, no NBA)
794,720 = Hamilton, Ontario (some of this is Bills)

// other Canadian Metros
1,514,720 = Alberta
1,447,140 = Edmonton
1,441,120 = Ottawa - Gatineau
844,570 = Winnipeg
824,410 = Quebec

Toronto would be a top 10 city for the NFL. In Theory Montreal should be a mid pack metro, but support there is weaker than the size of the city would suggest; but still NFL sized. Vancouver is borderline, and much of the population is immigrant and not sports focused. You have to figure Canada will respond proportionately less well per capita to NFL than the US, say maybe 0.7 would be a fair ball park estimate.

One observable thing, the NBA expanded last and chose cities on the rise. Especially in the West. NFL has a lot of smaller cities that would be passed over in a redo. San Diego, St. Louis, Orlando, Portland stand out for being passed over -- the first two stadiums decided it.

Milwaukee under counts for all sports, as it's really the entire state of Wisconsin, much like Carolina teams, but it's an even bigger state, although a good chunk of the population are Chicago attached.
05-12-2020 04:08 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 04:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  One observable thing, the NBA expanded last and chose cities on the rise. Especially in the West. NFL has a lot of smaller cities that would be passed over in a redo. San Diego, St. Louis, Orlando, Portland stand out for being passed over -- the first two stadiums decided it.

Milwaukee under counts for all sports, as it's really the entire state of Wisconsin, much like Carolina teams, but it's an even bigger state, although a good chunk of the population are Chicago attached.

The NFL might have smaller cities like Green Bay or Jacksonville in its ranks instead of much larger markets like Toronto and (until recently) LA, but they're a TV-driven league. Ticket revenue matters, but with only 16 games a season and national television distribution it's a far different picture from the other major leagues that have way more games and with a regional-dependent media structure.

And regarding Milwaukee, in what sense are they under counted? Per Wikipedia they're the smallest MLB market and the third-smallest market with two big four teams (not even counting that the Packers). The only states smaller than Wisconsin with three or more teams are Colorado and Minnesota (within a few hundred thousand people), but Denver and Minneapolis are double the size of Milwaukee. Yes Milwaukee is relatively close to Chicago's far northern suburbs, but it's Cubs/Bears/Bulls territory until you cross state lines.
05-12-2020 06:58 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 04:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wisconsin, much like Carolina teams, but it's an even bigger state, although a good chunk of the population are Chicago attached.

But, within context, the Packers and Bears are as old as dirt. They have established fans, despite the smallish distance between the two. You don’t see this in expansion nowadays, or new leagues. Carolina is situated far from Atlanta and Washington. Jacksonville (which may be a flop), was far enough, some thought, from Atlanta, Tampa, and Miami. Nashville/Memphis seems impervious to...Atlanta? Cincy? Indy?

Like, nobody is going to put a team in Newark on top of what’s already in NY. Or add to Long Island. Or put a second team back in the likes of Philly, Boston, etc., who used to have multiple teams.

I kind of don’t understand the fascination with Toronto for the reason of nearby US pro teams. I have to wonder that if you go west, you don’t have as much competition or saturation. And, to me, Montreal and Quebec might as well be the same, and I don’t think even combined, the cuty and area would support American pro football.
05-12-2020 07:17 PM
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johnintx Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 07:17 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(05-12-2020 04:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wisconsin, much like Carolina teams, but it's an even bigger state, although a good chunk of the population are Chicago attached.

But, within context, the Packers and Bears are as old as dirt. They have established fans, despite the smallish distance between the two. You don’t see this in expansion nowadays, or new leagues. Carolina is situated far from Atlanta and Washington. Jacksonville (which may be a flop), was far enough, some thought, from Atlanta, Tampa, and Miami. Nashville/Memphis seems impervious to...Atlanta? Cincy? Indy?

Like, nobody is going to put a team in Newark on top of what’s already in NY. Or add to Long Island. Or put a second team back in the likes of Philly, Boston, etc., who used to have multiple teams.

I kind of don’t understand the fascination with Toronto for the reason of nearby US pro teams. I have to wonder that if you go west, you don’t have as much competition or saturation. And, to me, Montreal and Quebec might as well be the same, and I don’t think even combined, the cuty and area would support American pro football.

Toronto is the 800 pound gorilla of Canada. The entire nation revolves around it, for better or worse. There is a lot of resentment and pushback from the rest of the country, but Toronto is the straw that stirs the Canadian drink.

Hockey is still the first love of Canada, but is no longer the only game in town. Canadians have been raised on the tradition of Hockey Night in Canada. Before NHL expansion, Toronto Maple Leaf games were nationally broadcast on CBC (except in Quebec, where the Montreal Canadiens were shown). They are still shown most Saturday nights nationwide in the early evening time slot. Even now, the Maple Leafs have a large fan base throughout Canada. They have a very large base of haters, as well.

The Blue Jays and Raptors are televised and marketed across Canada. Since they are the only Canadian team in their leagues, they do not generate the resentment that the Maple Leafs do. A Toronto NFL team would become a nationally televised and marketed team.

I don't think the NFL will go into Canada. I'm not sure if anyone in Canada is willing to invest in the NFL, especially since it would require a new privately financed stadium in Toronto. Either Rogers or Bell would need to be part of it, and neither are in a position to invest in it (possibly Bell, but not Rogers, who is taking serious losses on their long-term NHL rights deal). On the other hand, there are other international markets the NFL would rather explore before they go into Canada.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020 08:26 PM by johnintx.)
05-12-2020 07:39 PM
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Post: #49
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
I meant Milwaukee under counts the Packer legion. Every small town in the upper Midwest is Packer territory. It's really an entire State team in that sense.

Yeah Jacksonville should not exists; Khan you'd think would be an owner open to moving to an international city. But he seems to like Jacsonville, and he is so rich it doesn't matter to him. New Orleans is never going to be able to financially compete; the city and state are in decline. I am amazed the NBA still can't get that team out and off to somewhere growing rapidly like Seattle.

Portland is climbing fast and should be on the NFL expansion list. You have to think smaller market team like Cincinnati might be a good target for them to go after.

Did not realize Cleveland is so far down the list. They are just hanging on to big city status.
05-12-2020 07:43 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 07:17 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(05-12-2020 04:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wisconsin, much like Carolina teams, but it's an even bigger state, although a good chunk of the population are Chicago attached.

But, within context, the Packers and Bears are as old as dirt. They have established fans, despite the smallish distance between the two. You don’t see this in expansion nowadays, or new leagues. Carolina is situated far from Atlanta and Washington. Jacksonville (which may be a flop), was far enough, some thought, from Atlanta, Tampa, and Miami. Nashville/Memphis seems impervious to...Atlanta? Cincy? Indy?

Like, nobody is going to put a team in Newark on top of what’s already in NY. Or add to Long Island. Or put a second team back in the likes of Philly, Boston, etc., who used to have multiple teams.

I kind of don’t understand the fascination with Toronto for the reason of nearby US pro teams. I have to wonder that if you go west, you don’t have as much competition or saturation. And, to me, Montreal and Quebec might as well be the same, and I don’t think even combined, the cuty and area would support American pro football.

Like how no one is gonna put a team in Anaheim with LA twice spoken for...oh wait that almost happened.

That said I couldn't see an NFL team until the two teams, even if they call themselves "New York," move back across the river.
05-12-2020 08:15 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 04:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Let's put this into perspective, North American Metros

19,216,180 = New York
13,214,800 = Los Angeles
9,458,540 = Chicago
7,573,140 = Dallas - Ft. Worth
7,066,140 = Houston
6,722,460 = SF Bay Area (includes San Jose)
6,471,850 = Toronto
6,280,490 = Washington DC
6,166,490 = Miami
6,102,430 = Philadelphia
6,020,360 = Atlanta
4,948,200 = Phoenix
4,873,020 = Boston
4,650,630 = [b]Riverside-Ontario-San Bernadino (should this count as LA?)[/b]

Yes, the Inland Empire (Riverside-Ontario-San Bernadino) should be considered part of the LA market. It is part of the LA TV market. Essentially, the Inland Empire is a very large suburb of Los Angeles. There is no chance for an NFL or NBA or any professional sports team in the Inland Empire. There is no D1 or D2 football in the Inland Empire. Thee are just two D1 athletic programs, UCR and CBU. The high school football is very good and there is minor league hockey and minor league baseball. Also, the Clippers have an NBA G League team in Ontario.
05-12-2020 08:55 PM
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Erictelevision Online
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Post: #52
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
The Inland Empire sounds analogous to Worcester and Springfield
05-12-2020 09:08 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 08:55 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(05-12-2020 04:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Let's put this into perspective, North American Metros

19,216,180 = New York
13,214,800 = Los Angeles
9,458,540 = Chicago
7,573,140 = Dallas - Ft. Worth
7,066,140 = Houston
6,722,460 = SF Bay Area (includes San Jose)
6,471,850 = Toronto
6,280,490 = Washington DC
6,166,490 = Miami
6,102,430 = Philadelphia
6,020,360 = Atlanta
4,948,200 = Phoenix
4,873,020 = Boston
4,650,630 = [b]Riverside-Ontario-San Bernadino (should this count as LA?)[/b]

Yes, the Inland Empire (Riverside-Ontario-San Bernadino) should be considered part of the LA market. It is part of the LA TV market. Essentially, the Inland Empire is a very large suburb of Los Angeles. There is no chance for an NFL or NBA or any professional sports team in the Inland Empire. There is no D1 or D2 football in the Inland Empire. Thee are just two D1 athletic programs, UCR and CBU. The high school football is very good and there is minor league hockey and minor league baseball. Also, the Clippers have an NBA G League team in Ontario.

Yeah, it’s annoying to see the IE take up a DMA spot when it’s effectively LA for television and sports purposes.
05-12-2020 10:17 PM
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Post: #54
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
Damn, didn't they just expand by two recently? One was the Ottowa Red Blacks as I recall.
05-13-2020 12:26 AM
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RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 07:43 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I meant Milwaukee under counts the Packer legion. Every small town in the upper Midwest is Packer territory. It's really an entire State team in that sense.

Yeah Jacksonville should not exists; Khan you'd think would be an owner open to moving to an international city. But he seems to like Jacsonville, and he is so rich it doesn't matter to him. New Orleans is never going to be able to financially compete; the city and state are in decline. I am amazed the NBA still can't get that team out and off to somewhere growing rapidly like Seattle.

Portland is climbing fast and should be on the NFL expansion list. You have to think smaller market team like Cincinnati might be a good target for them to go after.

Did not realize Cleveland is so far down the list. They are just hanging on to big city status.

Well things get interesting when you look at the metro areas in Ohio. Cleveland is actually the largest population as an area if you look at just Ohio. Cincinnati becomes larger if you allow the inclusion of populations outside of Ohio as part of the metro areas (which honestly for the purpose of what is being discussed here makes sense to include the people in Indiana and Kentucky). Columbus has the largest single city population but that is mainly due to how fragmented into many numerous smaller cities that Cincinnati and Cleveland have while Columbus has less of that.

As for Pittsburgh its metro gets to include a HUGE amount of area when compared to Cleveland.

[Image: 800px-Pittsburgh_Megaregion_Boundaries_%...29.svg.png]

Cleveland only gets 5 smaller (in land size) Ohio counties and that does not include cities such as Akron or Canton or their counties despite their proximity (same to an extent how Dayton currently does not apply to Cincinatti though Dayton is slightly further away from Cincinatti than Akron is from Cleveland yet there are talks about merging Dayton with Cincinatti's metro and I do not think that is true with Akron and Cleveland). If Cleveland got to include as much land mass as Pittsburgh does its metro would be much larger in population than it currently shows. Heck why does Pittsburgh get to include Erie but Cleveland does not get to count Akron and Canton or heck Youngstown at that point. Heck Cleveland is closer to Erie than Pittsburgh is and somehow Pittsburgh gets to count part of Ohio in its Metro but Cleveland doe snot get part of PA.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2020 02:48 AM by Sultan of Euphonistan.)
05-13-2020 02:44 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 08:15 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Like how no one is gonna put a team in Anaheim with LA twice spoken for...oh wait that almost happened.

That said I couldn't see an NFL team until the two teams, even if they call themselves "New York," move back across the river.

True, but LA had two teams, not for terribly too long, lost them, and then saw a rush to put teams back in, almost getting to three. It almost happened, but didn’t. And who knows the sustainability out there given the history there? Especially with San Diego and its team parking further north. Will the Chargers go home like the Raiders tried? Is Oakland truly dead, or can another team park within that SF-Oakland-SJ region?

NY/NJ metro sustains three hockey teams, but that’s been a pro league that’s seen its own curious moves. Are all three still there in 30 years?

I’m one who thinks CT can’t support a team because of NYC and Boston, while Philly would often get overlooked on the first pass for new leagues because of its proximity to NY/NJ metro, but also the beltway not terribly far south.

But who knows. Maybe Toronto takes to the NFL should that day come. I think it will pose a tough challenge, though. I don’t know if the teams in the AFC East and North or NFC North would want them around. Or do you realign the leagues again?
05-13-2020 05:49 AM
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Post: #57
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
NFL should explore a joint operating agreement. Then the NFL could adopt the CFL punt receiving rules.
05-13-2020 07:11 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #58
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-12-2020 08:55 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  Yes, the Inland Empire (Riverside-Ontario-San Bernadino) should be considered part of the LA market. It is part of the LA TV market. Essentially, the Inland Empire is a very large suburb of Los Angeles.

I spent about a month in the LA area one August a few years ago and what stunned me was the difference in weather in parts of that area. I'd be near the water someplace, like Long Beach, and it would be a beautiful breezy 80. Then take a drive out to Riverside the same day, and it would be an oven, like 103 or something.

It was crazy how much hotter the weather changed when you moved "inland" just a bit. I found the same thing around San Diego. You're in San Diego itself and it's a gorgeous 77, then drive 20 minutes "inland" and you are baking in the same kind of oven.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2020 07:24 AM by quo vadis.)
05-13-2020 07:22 AM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
(05-13-2020 12:26 AM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote:  Damn, didn't they just expand by two recently? One was the Ottowa Red Blacks as I recall.

Just One so far. The Atlantic team(Halifax) doesn't have a start date.
05-13-2020 07:53 AM
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johnintx Offline
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RE: Fourth pro football league at risk of folding in the last year
DMAs and metro areas are not the same.

Designated Marketing Areas (DMAs) are used for TV and radio purposes. They are the areas that receive TV and radio stations from a certain city. They are used for ratings purposes. They measure things like number of TV sets and numbers of people listening to the radio. Multiple metro areas can be in the same DMA (e.g., Inland Empire is part of the Los Angeles DMA). Likewise, non-metro areas are included in a DMA. So, a DMA will include multiple counties that are not part of the immediate metro area. For instance, the Salt Lake City DMA includes the entire state of Utah, not just the immediate SLC metro area.

Metro areas are defined by the census bureau and Office of Management and Budget in the US (and for purposes of this discussion, the governing agency in Canada). They can make up part of a DMA, or more than the territory of a DMA. They have nothing to do with DMAs.

For government purposes, metro areas near each other can be combined. For instance, the Dallas-Fort Worth area is recognized as a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The nearby Sherman-Denison area is recognized as a separate MSA. There are several smaller cities in the area (under 50,000) recognized as Micropolitan areas. The Census Bureau recognizes the area as a Combined Statistical Area, combining the Dallas-Fort Worth area, the Sherman-Denison area, and several surrounding towns, going up to Durant, Oklahoma. The population of the CSA is slightly bigger than that of the MSA. However, the large MSA is still the primary metro area. (Regarding DMAs: Sherman has its own DMA, FWIW)

In Canada, the Greater Toronto Area is part of the Golden Horseshoe, stretching from east of Toronto around Lake Ontario to Niagara Falls. There are other nearby areas that are often combined with it for marketing purposes.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2020 10:28 AM by johnintx.)
05-13-2020 09:20 AM
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