(05-12-2020 09:27 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I’ve got Ohio at 3% going to the NY6, 2% finishing undefeated, and 0.7% making the playoff. No other MAC team cracks 1%.

You or your computer need a restart.......

Does Ohio have a stud QB coming in that we don't know about, to replace Rourke?

(05-11-2020 06:00 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(05-11-2020 05:22 PM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(05-11-2020 01:26 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Agree, though Miami last year under Gabbert shows it isn't an absolute necessity. The exception rather than the rule of course.

Looking forward to seeing OU extend their MAC title drought even as 2/1 favorites.

(05-12-2020 10:14 AM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  

(05-12-2020 09:27 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I’ve got Ohio at 3% going to the NY6, 2% finishing undefeated, and 0.7% making the playoff. No other MAC team cracks 1%.

Why?

Why... what? ESPN gives the other 11 MAC teams a 0.0% chance to go undefeated. A) It’s hard to beat the odds and win 13 in a row and B) A MAC team beating out the other G5 champs will require a fluke of 2007 proportions.

(05-16-2020 07:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(05-12-2020 10:14 AM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  

(05-12-2020 09:27 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I’ve got Ohio at 3% going to the NY6, 2% finishing undefeated, and 0.7% making the playoff. No other MAC team cracks 1%.

Why?

Why... what? ESPN gives the other 11 MAC teams a 0.0% chance to go undefeated. A) It’s hard to beat the odds and win 13 in a row and B) A MAC team beating out the other G5 champs will require a fluke of 2007 proportions.

Or 2012 proportions. Or 2016 proportions.

Touché

But, I’ve got Boise with 40%, the American with 40%, and the rest sharing 20% (led by App St). So, giving the MAC 5% odds seems alright.

(05-12-2020 11:35 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  Does Ohio have a stud QB coming in that we don't know about, to replace Rourke?

Without seeing (or the teams even having any practices) I’d guess Nathan Rourke will be replaced by his younger brother Kurtis who redshirted last year.

(05-12-2020 11:35 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  Does Ohio have a stud QB coming in that we don't know about, to replace Rourke?

Yes, his name is Rourke...

Why is Toledo so highly regarded with question marks on QB


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(05-18-2020 01:12 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  Why is Toledo so highly regarded with question marks on QB


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I think a lot of MAC teams are replacing starting QBs or have question marks at the position, which makes it hard to predict what will happen. Toledo, CMU, Ohio, WMU, EMU...all unknowns or inexperience at QB. My guess is oddsmakers like the talent on Toledo's roster.

Also, I think the odds on this site are more representative of reality:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/colleg...itle-odds/

Per ESPN, Buffalo is a slight favorite

Central could be looking at a 9-3 kind of season, w/ out-of-conference foes being poor San Jose St & Northwestern teams, as well as an underperforming Nebraska.

(05-11-2020 11:32 AM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  Brock played at the FCS level and his stats weren't eye-popping (also has history of injuries). David Moore is suspended for 5 games. The Cincy transfer has to sit out a year. Pearson is coming off of injury and Richardson is undersized and in poor shape. Pape is a true frosh. Who knows? Someone could step up and be good, but like I said, it's just a big question mark right now

WMU has a similar problem, although Eleby did start in 5 games as a true frosh in 2018. But yes, our entire season will also hinge on what happens at QB.

I do think it's silly to give CMU 8/1 odds at a championship with unknowns at QB and OL. But the MAC is so hard to predict.

You conveniently leave out the fact that we return a 1,000 yard RB, two All-MAC WR, an All-MAC TE, and two All-MAC OL.

I understand you are a WMU fan, but that was a biased way to put everything. Brock was a freshman All-American at the FCS level. He was injured last year. Even if we don't start out well, Moore returns at QB.

Not saying we win the MAC, but I would think CMU, Miami, and UB are the favorites. We also have the returning COY along with a very young defense last year that will improve. We have transfer DB's from Florida and Iowa State to replace any lost talent in the secondary.

If the season -- or at least a large part of it -- is played in locked stadiums, that would really hurt Ohio, who is used to playing in front of an enthusiastic home crowd.

By contrast, I reckon that ought to bump Kent State's odds up to 12/1 at worst, as they have the secret weapon of being a team well used to playing in front of scanty crowds.

(06-26-2020 01:50 PM)george14 Wrote:  

(05-11-2020 11:32 AM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  Brock played at the FCS level and his stats weren't eye-popping (also has history of injuries). David Moore is suspended for 5 games. The Cincy transfer has to sit out a year. Pearson is coming off of injury and Richardson is undersized and in poor shape. Pape is a true frosh. Who knows? Someone could step up and be good, but like I said, it's just a big question mark right now

WMU has a similar problem, although Eleby did start in 5 games as a true frosh in 2018. But yes, our entire season will also hinge on what happens at QB.

I do think it's silly to give CMU 8/1 odds at a championship with unknowns at QB and OL. But the MAC is so hard to predict.

You conveniently leave out the fact that we return a 1,000 yard RB, two All-MAC WR, an All-MAC TE, and two All-MAC OL.

I understand you are a WMU fan, but that was a biased way to put everything. Brock was a freshman All-American at the FCS level. He was injured last year. Even if we don't start out well, Moore returns at QB.

Not saying we win the MAC, but I would think CMU, Miami, and UB are the favorites. We also have the returning COY along with a very young defense last year that will improve. We have transfer DB's from Florida and Iowa State to replace any lost talent in the secondary.

I dunno, I think I was being fair. I am biased as a WMU fan, it's kind of impossible not to be. Quarterback IS a big question mark though, you have to admit. Dormady and Lazarro are gone, Moore (1143 yds, 57%, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, 190 YPG in 2019) is suspended for half the season, and the younger guys are complete unknowns. Brock was an FCS freshman AA, which is an impressive accolade, but what did he go on to do? His career stats just aren't great. 3,885 yds, 54%, 24 TDs, 23 INTs, 185 YPG. And that was against FCS competition.

I'm aware that there's talent on offense. No argument there. But there are also question marks and depth concern. OL is a smaller question mark. You can't lose 3 starters and 3 backups and expect not to miss a beat.

DBs might be a another smaller question mark. We don't really know yet. We know that Jamison and Braswell are gone. McKinnie-Harper is probably gone, and Edwards' status is up in the air?

I'm sure I'm not going to convince you of anything. We're all biased toward our team (and against our rivals). I would just temper the expectations that a lot of CMU faithful have of CMU just walking into the MAC championship game this season.

(06-27-2020 02:47 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  I dunno, I think I was being fair. I am biased as a WMU fan, it's kind of impossible not to be. Quarterback IS a big question mark though, you have to admit. Dormady and Lazarro are gone, Moore (1143 yds, 57%, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, 190 YPG in 2019) is suspended for half the season, and the younger guys are complete unknowns. Brock was an FCS freshman AA, which is an impressive accolade, but what did he go on to do? His career stats just aren't great. 3,885 yds, 54%, 24 TDs, 23 INTs, 185 YPG. And that was against FCS competition.

I'm aware that there's talent on offense. No argument there. But there are also question marks and depth concern. OL is a smaller question mark. You can't lose 3 starters and 3 backups and expect not to miss a beat.

DBs might be a another smaller question mark. We don't really know yet. We know that Jamison and Braswell are gone. McKinnie-Harper is probably gone, and Edwards' status is up in the air?

I'm sure I'm not going to convince you of anything. We're all biased toward our team (and against our rivals). I would just temper the expectations that a lot of CMU faithful have of CMU just walking into the MAC championship game this season.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think many CMU fans think we are going to walk into the MACCG. In the West, you guys beat us and BSU was a tough game. I do think TOL will struggle and obviously NIU will with all the transfers leaving. EMU is always overrated to me; they lose close games and their fans often claim they "could be 8-4 with the right bounces".

Our secondary lost Jamison and Braswell, but they are both players who can easily be replaced. Neither of them were All-MAC type players. Braswell was not a full time starter. As I said we have transfers from P5 programs that will fill in nicely along with young guys who played a lot last year. Harper is the big question mark. If he is gone that will sting. But you are correct, there are always question marks with new players.

As for QB play, we were very average in the MAC when it came to passing. Of course QB play matters, but that was not something I put a ton of stock into because we had a strong run game and return a ton of receiving talent. Neither Dormady or Moore were particularly great, so I have faith we will see someone step in and perform at a similar level. Definitely not expecting outstanding play there.

Our defense will be better than last year, without question. The players we return heavily outweigh the few we lose. Adesanya is really the only top dog we lose. Our OL returns 2 starters from 2019, 1 starter from 2018, and quite a few guys who saw a lot of action last year. Also not something I am concerned about.

The biggest concern (for me) is replacing Ward. He was a dynamic player receiving and running. We have Lewis who was similar to Ward, but our backups are not as proven. Nichols will be the #2 guy and I am high on him, but he isn't proven.

As long as our QB isn't a turnover machine, I see us winning 8 games again. I know people love to make fun of McElwain, but the guy has won COY in 3 conferences. Not sure how many times that has been done in FBS. It's his second year with us and obviously he and his staff were capable of turning it around completely. No reason to believe he won't improve the team more. But I expect the MAC to be tough again.

Toledo does return a QB who has played for the past two seasons, Eli Peters. It reminds me of NIU in 2016 and 2017. There will be a battle for the position but if he isn't the starter, the guy who beats him has to be decent. I like our depth in the room but a couple of guys have to show us their worth. Toledos run game and Oline will be good. Defense? Who knows. New coordinator from a big time school.

UT also had the best recruiting class in the conference again, so replacing some coaches to get new energy in the room "should" be a good bet for a top few finish in the league.

Pre-season magazines I've seen in the stores predicting Toledo & Central Michigan in West, Buffalo & Miami in East.