(05-06-2020 01:24 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: There's 4 big new pressures on universities right now due to coronavirus:
1) real estate revenue - most universities have major investments in dormitories. If classes are all online for the fall, they can't charge rent.
2) hospital revenue - some universities are attached to major hospitals. Hospitals are hemorrhaging cash right now.
3) state government revenue - most states will be forced to decrease support for higher education because coronavirus has reduced tax revenues
4) price pressure at universities with higher sticker prices - students won't pay $50k/year for online classes when a state school will offer the same classes for $15k/year.
Some random points:
1. Since my freshman year at Miami we've built 7 brand new dorms, completely renovated 9 existing ones, and replaced 3 dining halls with new ones. Online classes mean we have a bunch of debt built up for assets that aren't making any money, I doubt we're alone.
2. My dad works for WashU Med in St. Louis, they're projecting a $150 million loss this year under current trends with most of that is driven by the school. It's a very large system compared to most med schools out there, but it is telling.
3. Yep, though I think relative public funding for universities has been stagnant or declining for awhile now. Miami got something like 25% of its revenues from Ohio in the seventies, it's now under 10. I'm sure that's especially the case for schools in states with big financial issues like Illinois. Not like private schools will be immune either, people struggling to make ends meet or drowning in debt don't donate to their alma mater.
4. Absolutely. Higher ed has been a borderline Ponzi scheme for a generation or so, it's overdue for a correction in terms of price against return. Unfortunately this is what's triggering it.
A former Miami president used to teach a class called 'History of Miami University', one semester was posted to Youtube and I've been listening to it lately as a podcast of sorts. He stated that there was something like 540 colleges at the start of the Civil War but a decade after it ended there were less than 90 left; I doubt we see 80% go belly up like that, but this will be a bloodbath relative to what we've gotten used to.