The following is from Alax Berezow at Geopolitical Futures. I think it gives a decent snapshot of the situation to date with the info available.

Quote:Lesson #1: There is an optimal balance in response to a pandemic that is somewhere between the two extremes of “total lockdown” and “totally open society.” The most important question is: Were lockdowns necessary to stop the spread of the coronavirus? From a scientific perspective, this is unanswerable because there were no consistent control (i.e., no lockdown) and experimental (i.e., total lockdown) groups. There was no alternative universe in which we didn’t implement lockdowns to compare to our own.

Largely for domestic political reasons, both sides of the debate will claim to have been correct. Those believing the worst-case scenario COVID-19 models that predicted hundreds of thousands or millions of American deaths will say that lockdowns and extreme social distancing prevented a complete catastrophe. Those who do not believe the worst-case scenario was inevitable without a lockdown will claim that the models were exaggerated or, at the very least, that the ends did not justify the means.

Lesson #2: Putting the recommendations of scientists, public health officials and academics into practice often clashes with other geopolitical realities. Whenever there is a crisis, there is a strong tendency to turn toward experts or technocrats for solutions. The trouble with experts is that they often struggle to place their important work into a bigger picture. In this case, those favoring harsh lockdowns claimed to be “following the science.” Indeed, one scientist from Imperial College said that the U.K. would need to maintain “a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.” While such a statement may be scientifically sound, it is not feasible since it fails to incorporate the realities of everyday life. Another problem is that “the science” does not provide unambiguous guidance. For instance, there is good reason to believe that there may never be a particularly effective vaccine against COVID-19. The reason is fundamentally biological: Coronaviruses might not induce lifelong immunity in humans.

Additionally, there are other factors than science involved in a government’s response to a pandemic, such as legal, ethical and economic considerations. Allowing any one factor to dominate policymaking can produce an undesirable outcome. The COVID-19 pandemic morphed into a major geopolitical event and, therefore, the tools of geopolitical analysis became ever more relevant. That is likely why Winston Churchill famously said, “Scientists should be on tap, but not on top.” Rightly or wrongly, in this case, many in the public will perceive that the science factor was prioritized, to such an extent that economic health was subordinated to public health. Therefore, the scientific community, like politicians, will be held accountable for their actions and recommendations. Almost inevitably, this will erode public faith in the medical establishment.

Lesson #3: The general public must face the price of life-or-death trade-offs. When government officials evaluate the pros and cons of their proposed actions, they often do so through the lens of opportunity cost. Resources are not unlimited, and each action comes at a cost. Often, the best way to measure these costs is to first convert whatever is being measured – time, productivity, opportunities – into dollars and cents. This can even be done with human health and life itself.

How does one begin to put a price tag on a human life? A simple thought experiment demonstrates how easy it is. Pretend that you’re the mayor of a small town. There’s a dangerous intersection that results in one car crash fatality every year. A company approaches you with a solution: By redesigning and rebuilding the intersection, it can guarantee no more car crashes. The only problem is that the infrastructure project costs $100 million. Considering that your small town’s budget is far less than that, the city couldn’t afford it without a massive tax increase. You propose that tax increase to your citizens, who reject it overwhelmingly. The citizens have spoken: The lives of those who will be killed in accidents at the intersection are not worth $100 million.

Even though we don’t like to admit it, we make personal decisions like this all the time. A family would likely spend itself into bankruptcy to save the life of a child but not the life of their 95-year-old grandfather. Why? Because we know that a child potentially has a long, bright and prosperous future ahead of her, but grandpa does not. Life insurance companies make calculations like this on a daily basis. (A website run by the non-profit organization Life Happens features a human life value calculator that determines how much your life is worth to your family, strictly in financial terms.) For what it’s worth, various U.S. government agencies value a life between $9 million and $10 million.

Lesson #4: The global supply chain requires redundancies because interdependence is not enough. Of all the lessons on offer from COVID-19, this one is the most obvious. Over the past few months, we learned that a domino effect, beginning with the halting of China’s economy, can trigger logistical nightmares that can collapse supply chains and ruin economies. Nations also received a wake-up call on just how much they depend on foreign countries for products vitally important to their populations’ well-being. Even products that are a national security interest, such as pharmaceuticals and medical devices, are at least partially manufactured abroad. Finally, we learned that our allies will hoard resources in a crisis. Italy, in particular, learned that lesson the hard way about the EU.

There will be tremendous pressure on governments to create national stockpiles of vital materials, create redundancies in their supply chains and be more self-sufficient wherever possible. That could require onshoring some manufacturing capabilities that are deemed vital to the national interest. If that proves too impractical or economically inefficient, another possibility would be to create global supply chain alliances between trusted countries. Of course, any such alliance must be constructed in a way that precludes the fiasco that briefly played out in the EU. Thus, as countries and multinational corporations prioritize self-reliance after COVID-19, they will look to increase their production capacity for crucial supplies and medicine and will be more selective in building trade affiliations with the countries they trust the most. In other words, supply chains increasingly will be based on security and resilience.

While all of these are valuable, I think 2 and 3 will have a greater long term effect. By advocating a response that many see as punitive, scientists have once again eroded their credibility with the public. Consequently Point 3 articulates what many people who have made comparisons of COVID to the Flu are getting at. It is not about communicability, but the controllable forces at hand and the cost of using the. Hiding behind 'an overabundance of caution' will not be sufficient justification when similar actions could be used to mitigate deaths from car accidents (60K/YR) or medical accidents (250K/YR) but aren't.

What scares me is that when the next REAL deadly virus comes through that actually merits lockdowns, people will remember this and be non-compliant.

(05-01-2020 08:49 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  What scares me is that when the next REAL deadly virus comes through that actually merits lockdowns, people will remember this and be non-compliant.

The fatality rate will determine the level of compliance going forward IMO.

(05-01-2020 09:04 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 08:49 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  What scares me is that when the next REAL deadly virus comes through that actually merits lockdowns, people will remember this and be non-compliant.

The fatality rate will determine the level of compliance going forward IMO.

We still don't know the fatality rate. It is somewhere between .01% and 7% depending on the country and how many people shook it off without registering a positive test. And remember we were also dealing with fake Chinese data and fake Chinese videos showing people randomly dropping dead in the street. That got right wing Twitter onboard with the Apocalypse. What happens next time when something much worse comes out of China... like yellow fever? Do we believe the numbers? Do we believe the real videos of people swelling up to twice their size, turning yellow, and dropping dead? Or do we wait until they bring it to NYC and 1M die before there is anything we can do?

(05-01-2020 09:49 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 09:04 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 08:49 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  What scares me is that when the next REAL deadly virus comes through that actually merits lockdowns, people will remember this and be non-compliant.

The fatality rate will determine the level of compliance going forward IMO.

We still don't know the fatality rate. It is somewhere between .01% and 7% depending on the country and how many people shook it off without registering a positive test. And remember we were also dealing with fake Chinese data and fake Chinese videos showing people randomly dropping dead in the street. That got right wing Twitter onboard with the Apocalypse. What happens next time when something much worse comes out of China... like yellow fever? Do we believe the numbers? Do we believe the real videos of people swelling up to twice their size, turning yellow, and dropping dead? Or do we wait until they bring it to NYC and 1M die before there is anything we can do?

Agreed. But what mean is that the real crisis will not have such a high asymptomatic rate and that infection will essentially equal a death sentence.

(05-01-2020 08:49 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  What scares me is that when the next REAL deadly virus comes through that actually merits lockdowns, people will remember this and be non-compliant.

There is much reason to suspect that this coronabug was merely a test from Communist Chinese Dictatorship to see what they could do, much like the WTC bombing was a test before 9/11. In both cases, our enemies learned our defenses were weak due to our open society, a significant portion of which seems pre-disposed to helping our enemies to be in a position to hurt us (left-wing globalists). They learned they could bring the world to its knees in panic without firing a shot, weakening many of their enemies, and killing a lot of people around the world without expending many of their own resources. The fact the Communist Chinese Dictatorship willfully chose to protect some of their own by clamping down on travel for their people while simultaneously allowing foreigners to unknowingly spread the bug around the world, coupled with the outright lying about the nature of the coronabug itself and its transmissability points to a coordinated attempt to experiment with this kind of warfare against the rest of the world.

Now, how many of you really believe that our enemies in the Communist Chinese Dictatorship will not use what they have learned from this attack to do so again in the future, only perhaps with a more deadly version? They could pre-innoculate many of their own people (but likely not all, since they don't value their own people's lives much more than ours) for the purpose of having an army ready to roll over a weakened world of globalist fools who have been conditioned by radical Left-wing beta-type liberals to let their countries' guards down. American and other countries' interests are best served by removing as soon as possible any and all business and strategic interests from being tied into our enemies such as the Communist Chinese Dictatorship that openly and without remorse threatens the world health and sovereignty. We would do well to bar any American company from doing business with Communist Chinese Dictatorship. The lesson here is to recognize your enemies for what they are. I pity the Chinese people who have to live under their oppressive and evil regime, but I am under no illusions that Communist Chinese Dictatorship is anything but evil and should be dealt with only as such. When Reagan called the USSR the "evil Empire" it enraged many Leftists both in the US and around the world. But history shows that Reagan was correct, and that his stance directly saying and identifying who and what the enemies were saved millions of lives and allowed the tyranny of the Soviet Union to fall and crumble under its own weight. Had Reagan not been our President at that time, it is highly likely we would still be dealing with the USSR to this day, which is a bad thing for our country, a bad thing for the world and a bad thing for those who suffered under the tyranny of that disordered and destructive Communist regime.

I've said from the beginning that we are under attack as surely as if an invading force had set foot on our soil. The skyscreamers and pearl clutchers in my monkeysphere called me crazy.

I've also long said in response to those who claim we are killing our planet that when mother nature has had enough of us as parasites she will shake us off. Natural selection is a real y'all. Could be that mother nature is just testing out a reset button.

I know, I'm crazy.

(05-02-2020 07:20 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  I've said from the beginning that we are under attack as surely as if an invading force had set foot on our soil. The skyscreamers and pearl clutchers in my monkeysphere called me crazy.

I've also long said in response to those who claim we are killing our planet that when mother nature has had enough of us as parasites she will shake us off. Natural selection is a real y'all. Could be that mother nature is just testing out a reset button.

I know, I'm crazy.

there's many of you memphians that get 'it'....ain' nothing crazy recognizing fundamental logic...

the ignorant have been threatened....all they have in return is 'woofy woof'....

oh wellzy.... #today'sNorm

(05-02-2020 07:20 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  I've said from the beginning that we are under attack as surely as if an invading force had set foot on our soil. The skyscreamers and pearl clutchers in my monkeysphere called me crazy.

I've also long said in response to those who claim we are killing our planet that when mother nature has had enough of us as parasites she will shake us off. Natural selection is a real y'all. Could be that mother nature is just testing out a reset button.

I know, I'm crazy.

Nope. You arent. When recommendations to limit freedoms for safety become police action dictates from the State then there is a problem.

We recommend you limit your constitutuonal rights for safety
Sure no problem.

We demand you surrender your constitutional rights under penalty of law for safety
Go frick yourself

It happened out of the gate with the local prog filth despots.

Some of us saw it early. Some of us went full Karen.

(05-02-2020 08:13 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 07:20 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  I've said from the beginning that we are under attack as surely as if an invading force had set foot on our soil. The skyscreamers and pearl clutchers in my monkeysphere called me crazy.

I've also long said in response to those who claim we are killing our planet that when mother nature has had enough of us as parasites she will shake us off. Natural selection is a real y'all. Could be that mother nature is just testing out a reset button.

I know, I'm crazy.

Nope. You arent. When recommendations to limit freedoms for safety become police action dictates from the State then there is a problem.

We recommend you limit your constitutuonal rights for safety
Sure no problem.

We demand you surrender your constitutional rights under penalty of law for safety
Go frick yourself

It happened out of the gate with the local prog filth despots.

Some of us saw it early. Some of us went full Karen.

our mayor is as 'Karen' as it gets....that wussrag has mandated all entries to re-openings 'must wear a mask'....

I walked into some store yesterday w/o a mask with 'mask MUST be worn before entering store'.....guess what happened?! not a g'dammed thingy....

if I ever get denied at 'x' store, they won't see nuts zongo ever again....

#neverSuccumbToPanic+Lunacy

#homeySaysFkOff

#notScaredBeenScarred

(05-02-2020 08:20 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 08:13 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 07:20 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  I've said from the beginning that we are under attack as surely as if an invading force had set foot on our soil. The skyscreamers and pearl clutchers in my monkeysphere called me crazy.

I've also long said in response to those who claim we are killing our planet that when mother nature has had enough of us as parasites she will shake us off. Natural selection is a real y'all. Could be that mother nature is just testing out a reset button.

I know, I'm crazy.

Nope. You arent. When recommendations to limit freedoms for safety become police action dictates from the State then there is a problem.

We recommend you limit your constitutuonal rights for safety
Sure no problem.

We demand you surrender your constitutional rights under penalty of law for safety
Go frick yourself

It happened out of the gate with the local prog filth despots.

Some of us saw it early. Some of us went full Karen.

our mayor is as 'Karen' as it gets....that wussrag has mandated all entries to re-openings 'must wear a mask'....

I walked into some store yesterday w/o a mask with 'mask MUST be worn before entering store'.....guess what happened?! not a g'dammed thingy....

if I ever get denied at 'x' store, they won't see nuts zongo ever again....

#neverSuccumbToPanic+Lunacy

#homeySaysFkOff

#notScaredBeenScarred

Its expletive ridiculous. These morons cant program a remote control but know how to properly wear a mask and gloves to prevent transmission of a disease. No training, nothing. I was at an event and saw 3 Karens with their idiotic decorative masks move them to the side so they could cough. Seriously. Then we had someone post a wall of text on the effectiveness of masks in a controlled clinical setting touting their effectiveness of blocking large droplets in the early stages of viral shedding Well no shite. I swear, people that are afraid of this need to just keep their arses at home.

I've not missed one day of work, out in the world, not home doing what has to be done, maintaining rational sanitary guidelines. All the time watching these loons in various degrees of misuse of ppe and lunatic local tards that can only be politicians because they are too stupid to do anything else tell me my constitutional rights need to be suspended. Well frick em.

Well done to those in open rebellion of idiocy

Rant on ____. Off __x__

Pass the tylenol.

Same with me. Went to the pharmacy yesterday to pick up a Rx and had 4 old banditos in line in front of me with their masks all jacked up on their faces. The one at the counter had her hand on her mask the whole time so that when she talked she would move it out of the way. Pshit you not. Needless to say I have to go back to get my Rx today. These masks are gonna kill people due 1. Not being effective and 2. Having to breathe through your mouth with much deeper breathes than one would normally without the mask through one's nose.

(05-02-2020 09:50 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Same with me. Went to the pharmacy yesterday to pick up a Rx and had 4 old banditos in line in front of me with their masks all jacked up on their faces. The one at the counter had her hand on her mask the whole time so that when she talked she would move it out of the way. Pshit you not. Needless to say I have to go back to get my Rx today. These masks are gonna kill people due 1. Not being effective and 2. Having to breathe through your mouth with much deeper breathes than one would normally without the mask through one's nose.

dude, I just left the ra shop and couldn't get to the door before whackjob sleestack walks out with iPad asking me to describe muh necessity....t only took 0.5 secs before I thanked him for losing a sale to the internutz...

#hankOut

(05-02-2020 08:13 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 07:20 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  I've said from the beginning that we are under attack as surely as if an invading force had set foot on our soil. The skyscreamers and pearl clutchers in my monkeysphere called me crazy.

I've also long said in response to those who claim we are killing our planet that when mother nature has had enough of us as parasites she will shake us off. Natural selection is a real y'all. Could be that mother nature is just testing out a reset button.

I know, I'm crazy.

Nope. You arent. When recommendations to limit freedoms for safety become police action dictates from the State then there is a problem.

We recommend you limit your constitutuonal rights for safety
Sure no problem.

We demand you surrender your constitutional rights under penalty of law for safety
Go frick yourself

It happened out of the gate with the local prog filth despots.

Some of us saw it early. Some of us went full Karen.

I think debuffoonio called it “enforced help”. Just what we need.

“Nine most terrifying words in the English language: I’m from the government and I’m here to help”. Ronaldus Maximus

(05-02-2020 11:18 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 09:50 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Same with me. Went to the pharmacy yesterday to pick up a Rx and had 4 old banditos in line in front of me with their masks all jacked up on their faces. The one at the counter had her hand on her mask the whole time so that when she talked she would move it out of the way. Pshit you not. Needless to say I have to go back to get my Rx today. These masks are gonna kill people due 1. Not being effective and 2. Having to breathe through your mouth with much deeper breathes than one would normally without the mask through one's nose.

dude, I just left the ra shop and couldn't get to the door before whackjob sleestack walks out with iPad asking me to describe muh necessity....t only took 0.5 secs before I thanked him for losing a sale to the internutz...

#hankOut

Got an Urgent Care across from the Hardees in town that is providing anti-body tests. Gonna get one on Monday. If I am positive for the anti-body I'm gonna show my test result everywhere I go like a guy at 12:01am on the early morning of his 21st birthday. Read'em and weep pbitches.

(05-02-2020 11:27 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 11:18 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 09:50 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Same with me. Went to the pharmacy yesterday to pick up a Rx and had 4 old banditos in line in front of me with their masks all jacked up on their faces. The one at the counter had her hand on her mask the whole time so that when she talked she would move it out of the way. Pshit you not. Needless to say I have to go back to get my Rx today. These masks are gonna kill people due 1. Not being effective and 2. Having to breathe through your mouth with much deeper breathes than one would normally without the mask through one's nose.

dude, I just left the ra shop and couldn't get to the door before whackjob sleestack walks out with iPad asking me to describe muh necessity....t only took 0.5 secs before I thanked him for losing a sale to the internutz...

#hankOut

Got an Urgent Care across from the Hardees in town that is providing anti-body tests. Gonna get one on Monday. If I am positive for the anti-body I'm ginna show my test result everywhere I go like a guy at 12:01am on the early morning of his 21st birthday. Read'em and weep pbitches.

I wish I could practice law....I'd go medievil with this bs...

#ambulanceDessert

Toby-wannabe has screwed the pooch on this one.....

(05-02-2020 11:18 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(05-02-2020 09:50 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Same with me. Went to the pharmacy yesterday to pick up a Rx and had 4 old banditos in line in front of me with their masks all jacked up on their faces. The one at the counter had her hand on her mask the whole time so that when she talked she would move it out of the way. Pshit you not. Needless to say I have to go back to get my Rx today. These masks are gonna kill people due 1. Not being effective and 2. Having to breathe through your mouth with much deeper breathes than one would normally without the mask through one's nose.

dude, I just left the ra shop and couldn't get to the door before whackjob sleestack walks out with iPad asking me to describe muh necessity....t only took 0.5 secs before I thanked him for losing a sale to the internutz...

#hankOut

You should have said, "yea, I want a 12 piece nuggett with some of those waffle fries, some chick fila sauce and a lot of ketchup" and walked right by in to the store.