(05-04-2020 11:53 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Ok. You guys go on about your business. Even the President is revising deaths upward.

What was built into the model was poor compliance. If you want to moronically believe this virus doesn't transmit easily from person to person and isn't deadly that's your prerogative. Just be sure to stay away from my two kids who have underlying health conditions.

Even though the virus is susceptible to heat and humidity conditions, which should mean fewer cases this summer just watch what happens in the south. Some states are actually going to see the curve steepen this summer. Haven't decided yet which state is going to regret their decisions, but I'm probably going to put my chips down on Georgia.

You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

clt is also anti murder hornet.

(05-05-2020 06:54 AM)Dusky Wrote:  You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

People truly need to step away from the media and take a look at reality. If CV-19 is truly as dangerous and spreads as quickly as they say, then why haven't people that work in the grocery stores been completely wiped out? They work in one of busy public environments currently and they are coming in contact with items that may have been touched half a dozen times throughout the supply chain.

(05-05-2020 06:54 AM)Dusky Wrote:  

(05-04-2020 11:53 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Ok. You guys go on about your business. Even the President is revising deaths upward.

What was built into the model was poor compliance. If you want to moronically believe this virus doesn't transmit easily from person to person and isn't deadly that's your prerogative. Just be sure to stay away from my two kids who have underlying health conditions.

Even though the virus is susceptible to heat and humidity conditions, which should mean fewer cases this summer just watch what happens in the south. Some states are actually going to see the curve steepen this summer. Haven't decided yet which state is going to regret their decisions, but I'm probably going to put my chips down on Georgia.

You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

I have no f'n clue what you are talking about. What is happening is 70,000 people are dead in a matter of a few months. That number is a fraction of what would have happened without shutting down. That's your facts. And until we have a vaccine many more will die. That's not fear mongering. It's called reality. Feel free to revisit this another six months. Bookmark it. I welcome you to come back to it at the end of the year.

(05-05-2020 08:04 AM)wh49er Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:54 AM)Dusky Wrote:  You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

People truly need to step away from the media and take a look at reality. If CV-19 is truly as dangerous and spreads as quickly as they say, then why haven't people that work in the grocery stores been completely wiped out? They work in one of busy public environments currently and they are coming in contact with items that may have been touched half a dozen times throughout the supply chain.

LMAO. I haven't turned on the TV news in about three years. The news media is a joke and has truly become a risk to our national security. I rely on the official information provided by the Trump administration and my own expertise. I have been in the federal government for 17 years. What I can say to all of you arm chair QB's who think you know everything is I'm not a spring chicken and have been doing this kind of thing for a long time. This is unlike anything we've seen in our lifetimes. I worked the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 and Covid makes that look like a walk in the park. I have deployed for SARS, Marburg, Ebola, and was at least peripherally on the sidelines for MERS. The viral hemorrhagic fevers and MERS were obviously much worse from a morbidity perspective but much easier to contain. COVID is very, very difficult to contain.

Oh, and grocery workers are. Have you even looked? The union is trying to get them designated as first responders. Cashiers are at higher risk than others, because they have much more direct contact. More at risk are food processing plants. The food supply chain is much, much closer on the edge of collapse than people realize. It's already getting really hard to find chicken and pork in some locales. What concerns me most is the potential for reopening too soon creating broader spread which even further negatively impacts the supply chain. That's not a prediction. Just something I see as one reason to be concerned, because food processing plants are being hit really hard. Some of those plants aren't shutting down to protect their workers. They are shutting down, because they have no one else left to do the job. If they are being hit this hard with most everything else shutdown what's going to happen when everyone else opens up and people are acting like it business as usual? How is that going to impact essential services that have already been hit hard like food processors?

That being said, since this got off topic. I'm going to be very surprised if there are in person classes anywhere in the fall. Opening up too fast has ensured that outcome. I still think there is a way to do it, but it requires everyone wearing masks in public, and I just don't see my southern brothers and sisters doing it. Students, teachers, employees, etc., if everyone would wear mask would help prevent the spread and would offer a smart way to go back to having classes. Same for opening businesses. But it's such a culture shift that I don't think most Americans are willing to do.

So. TBL? Let's clarify something. You rely upon "the Trump administration" for accurate information? Since some of us (apparently not everybody) are prohibited from bringing up politics on this site; I'll just leave it at that. BTW, you are absolutely accurate in your assessment of the pandemic. Those of us who downplay its impact on the health of our nation; do so at our own peril.

(05-05-2020 08:21 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:54 AM)Dusky Wrote:  

(05-04-2020 11:53 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Ok. You guys go on about your business. Even the President is revising deaths upward.

What was built into the model was poor compliance. If you want to moronically believe this virus doesn't transmit easily from person to person and isn't deadly that's your prerogative. Just be sure to stay away from my two kids who have underlying health conditions.

Even though the virus is susceptible to heat and humidity conditions, which should mean fewer cases this summer just watch what happens in the south. Some states are actually going to see the curve steepen this summer. Haven't decided yet which state is going to regret their decisions, but I'm probably going to put my chips down on Georgia.

You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

I have no f'n clue what you are talking about. What is happening is 70,000 people are dead in a matter of a few months. That number is a fraction of what would have happened without shutting down. That's your facts. And until we have a vaccine many more will die. That's not fear mongering. It's called reality. Feel free to revisit this another six months. Bookmark it. I welcome you to come back to it at the end of the year.

I am going to bookmark it and it will prove exactly my point. You are a fear monger. The numbers are highly inflated due to the sudden massive downturn in influenza and pneumonia deaths. The mortality rate will be proven to be under 1% due to the hundreds of thousand that will be proven to be asymptomatic as the testing continues. We went from 1M+ deaths to now the world will end with 100K. Don't try to revise history, those models were with social distancing period!

They were wrong, you are wrong and time will prove my point.

(05-05-2020 12:09 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:21 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:54 AM)Dusky Wrote:  

(05-04-2020 11:53 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Ok. You guys go on about your business. Even the President is revising deaths upward.

What was built into the model was poor compliance. If you want to moronically believe this virus doesn't transmit easily from person to person and isn't deadly that's your prerogative. Just be sure to stay away from my two kids who have underlying health conditions.

Even though the virus is susceptible to heat and humidity conditions, which should mean fewer cases this summer just watch what happens in the south. Some states are actually going to see the curve steepen this summer. Haven't decided yet which state is going to regret their decisions, but I'm probably going to put my chips down on Georgia.

You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

I have no f'n clue what you are talking about. What is happening is 70,000 people are dead in a matter of a few months. That number is a fraction of what would have happened without shutting down. That's your facts. And until we have a vaccine many more will die. That's not fear mongering. It's called reality. Feel free to revisit this another six months. Bookmark it. I welcome you to come back to it at the end of the year.

I am going to bookmark it and it will prove exactly my point. You are a fear monger. The numbers are highly inflated due to the sudden massive downturn in influenza and pneumonia deaths. The mortality rate will be proven to be under 1% due to the hundreds of thousand that will be proven to be asymptomatic as the testing continues. We went from 1M+ deaths to now the world will end with 100K. Don't try to revise history, those models were with social distancing period!

They were wrong, you are wrong and time will prove my point.

I don't have anything to do with those models. You have yet to prove how I have been a fear monger. I still don't know what the hell you are talking about.

Ooh, and watch this. I can do this too. Watch. You're wrong. Wow, look at that. It must be true because it was just said on the Internet. LMAO at you.

What is clear is that you have no f'n clue what you are talking about. I can tell just by the way you phrased this bolded section above that you don't even know what you just said. It's incoherent. You also lack credibility when you accuse someone of something that has no basis in reality. I have barely talked on this subject, primarily for this reason. Self anointed geniuses such as yourself who think you know more than everyone else. LMAO.

(05-05-2020 10:39 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote:  So. TBL? Let's clarify something. You rely upon "the Trump administration" for accurate information? Since some of us (apparently not everybody) are prohibited from bringing up politics on this site; I'll just leave it at that. BTW, you are absolutely accurate in your assessment of the pandemic. Those of us who downplay its impact on the health of our nation; do so at our own peril.

This President says things. I've just gotten used to that. I'm pretty sure he just says whatever pops into his head, but he has his leadership in place that is looking at this objectively trying to balance things and figure out the right course of action. The WH Task Force has a tough job, and I think they are doing the best they can under the circumstances. There are some top notch people working those bigger problems. Like I said above and weeks earlier, there are no easy/perfect solutions to this situation. But you have people who sit on a conspiracy website all day or get their "news" from a highly parochial or slanted perspective and then attempt to spin that off as facts.

I also give the task force some credit because I have my team working a different problem related to the threat based aspects and because the threat is evolving due to the pandemic we're having to push things to the task force for approval before we can work it with partners, engage, etc. The WH has done a good job trying to maintain a coordinated strategy.

(05-05-2020 12:09 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:21 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:54 AM)Dusky Wrote:  

(05-04-2020 11:53 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Ok. You guys go on about your business. Even the President is revising deaths upward.

What was built into the model was poor compliance. If you want to moronically believe this virus doesn't transmit easily from person to person and isn't deadly that's your prerogative. Just be sure to stay away from my two kids who have underlying health conditions.

Even though the virus is susceptible to heat and humidity conditions, which should mean fewer cases this summer just watch what happens in the south. Some states are actually going to see the curve steepen this summer. Haven't decided yet which state is going to regret their decisions, but I'm probably going to put my chips down on Georgia.

You are always predicting was is going to happen (in your opinion) and disregard what did happen (fact) and is happening (fact). Typical fear mongering.

I have no f'n clue what you are talking about. What is happening is 70,000 people are dead in a matter of a few months. That number is a fraction of what would have happened without shutting down. That's your facts. And until we have a vaccine many more will die. That's not fear mongering. It's called reality. Feel free to revisit this another six months. Bookmark it. I welcome you to come back to it at the end of the year.

I am going to bookmark it and it will prove exactly my point. You are a fear monger. The numbers are highly inflated due to the sudden massive downturn in influenza and pneumonia deaths. The mortality rate will be proven to be under 1% due to the hundreds of thousand that will be proven to be asymptomatic as the testing continues. We went from 1M+ deaths to now the world will end with 100K. Don't try to revise history, those models were with social distancing period!

They were wrong, you are wrong and time will prove my point.

Sudden massive downturn in influenza deaths in April?!?!?!? It must be a conspiracy.

clt says a tornado full of murder hornets would be awful

Imagine that. Flu deaths go down in the spring...


Just like every other year. Nice investigation Sherlock.

If you really want to know how this works and you're willing to be objective I will be happy to explain this. Though I stopped watching the nonsense on 24 hour cable news I still read what's out there and see some of the other nonsense out there too.

1. CDC takes laboratory confirmed flu deaths, plus influenza hospitalizations, and then plugs those data points into an algorithm that produces a range for undercounted/unreported deaths from influenza. This range is somewhat useless.

2. Regardless of that estimate there is one thing that is certain. Lab confirmed flu deaths are known at the end of a flu season. Cases and deaths peak usually in February and fall off precipitously from there. Flu season is almost always over by this point in the year sans a few pockets here or there.

3. The one thing we know that we have right now for apples to apples comparison is lab confirmed flu deaths and lab confirmed covid deaths. Last time I looked lab confirmed flu deaths were around 7200. Lab confirmed COVID deaths are about 70K.

4. What does that tell us? Well, the 7200 or so confirmed flu deaths is the second highest total since 2012, so it's not like flu deaths are being undercounted.

5. Using the range the upper end has flu deaths about 62,000 for this flu season That number isn't going to move, because as stated flu season is essentially over at this point in the year. That said, COVID deaths aren't declining that much.

So, here's my question to the deniers. Now that flu season is over, what you guys who think this is myth going to move on to? Will you start saying that heart attacks and suicides are down because they are being counted as COVID cases?

(05-05-2020 06:24 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  So, here's my question to the deniers.

There is a difference between denying and acknowledging it's a real issue that has been overblown and mainly driven by media propaganda.

Am I concerned about people's physical health? Yes but I'm also concerned about people being unable to feed their families, government overreach, people's mental health, increased drug addiction and increased domestic violence.

If you can't see both sides of it, you're just essentially saying one side's lives are more important than the other sides.

(05-06-2020 09:41 AM)wh49er Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:24 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  So, here's my question to the deniers.

There is a difference between denying and acknowledging it's a real issue that has been overblown and mainly driven by media propaganda.

Am I concerned about people's physical health? Yes but I'm also concerned about people being unable to feed their families, government overreach, people's mental health, increased drug addiction and increased domestic violence.

If you can't see both sides of it, you're just essentially saying one side's lives are more important than the other sides.

Yep

https://twitter.com/DhirajGuptaBHRS/stat...08/photo/1

The fact is, more people are going to die. Lockdowns / shelter at home only need to be in place to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, whatever that ICU % benchmark is - and yes, we are likely to have to do shelter in place more than once. Hopefully these lockdowns will also serve the dual purpose to give scientists time to advance potential treatments / vaccines to save lives in the future. The rest of the time needs to be a gradual rephasing of the economy / daily life

(05-06-2020 09:41 AM)wh49er Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:24 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  So, here's my question to the deniers.

There is a difference between denying and acknowledging it's a real issue that has been overblown and mainly driven by media propaganda.

Am I concerned about people's physical health? Yes but I'm also concerned about people being unable to feed their families, government overreach, people's mental health, increased drug addiction and increased domestic violence.

If you can't see both sides of it, you're just essentially saying one side's lives are more important than the other sides.

When I have discussed this issue this is pretty much what I said point for point for the last six to eight weeks. Feel free to go back and check that for yourself.

That said the difference between the latter issues is that one of them has been killing at a daily rate more than the worst conditions including cancer and heart disease. So, if you can't see that these aren't exactly co-equals then you won't see that one is more dangerous than the other. I haven't seen too many deaths occurring from famine in the U.S., and every single community and state has programs in place to help people find food and mental health support - and a lot of these efforts have kicked into overtime given the situation). It's a lot easier to find a way to get somebody a sandwich than it is to prevent a death of that same person who might have asthma or diabetes or some other condition that offers them a high probability of dying if they encounter the virus.

But all those issues you mentioned are real concerns and I'm concerned about those too (except government over reach - that one is a manufactured political ploy in the midst of a real crisis which I find to be abhorrent).

(05-06-2020 01:11 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(05-06-2020 09:41 AM)wh49er Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:24 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  So, here's my question to the deniers.

There is a difference between denying and acknowledging it's a real issue that has been overblown and mainly driven by media propaganda.

Am I concerned about people's physical health? Yes but I'm also concerned about people being unable to feed their families, government overreach, people's mental health, increased drug addiction and increased domestic violence.

If you can't see both sides of it, you're just essentially saying one side's lives are more important than the other sides.

When I have discussed this issue this is pretty much what I said point for point for the last six to eight weeks. Feel free to go back and check that for yourself.

That said the difference between the latter issues is that one of them has been killing at a daily rate more than the worst conditions including cancer and heart disease. So, if you can't see that these aren't exactly co-equals then you won't see that one is more dangerous than the other. I haven't seen too many deaths occurring from famine in the U.S., and every single community and state has programs in place to help people find food and mental health support - and a lot of these efforts have kicked into overtime given the situation). It's a lot easier to find a way to get somebody a sandwich than it is to prevent a death of that same person who might have asthma or diabetes or some other condition that offers them a high probability of dying if they encounter the virus.

But all those issues you mentioned are real concerns and I'm concerned about those too (except government over reach - that one is a manufactured political ploy in the midst of a real crisis which I find to be abhorrent).

This is a global issue, remember "We're all in this together!". UN stated a few days ago that nearly 260 million around the world have been put into food insecurity due to all this. The US may be ok in your mind but repercussions stretch much further than just our little 'Merica bubble.

Government overreach has been continually increasing over the past 50 years. When you see police arresting protesters without wearing masks and gloves themselves or you see politicians standing side by side without the same, this should tell you something is afoot. Although I can't blame you for not wanting to speak against the same entity that provides your meal ticket.

Best of luck to you and your family, we will just have agree to disagree on the current situation.

(05-07-2020 07:52 AM)wh49er Wrote:  

(05-06-2020 01:11 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(05-06-2020 09:41 AM)wh49er Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 06:24 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  So, here's my question to the deniers.

There is a difference between denying and acknowledging it's a real issue that has been overblown and mainly driven by media propaganda.

Am I concerned about people's physical health? Yes but I'm also concerned about people being unable to feed their families, government overreach, people's mental health, increased drug addiction and increased domestic violence.

If you can't see both sides of it, you're just essentially saying one side's lives are more important than the other sides.

When I have discussed this issue this is pretty much what I said point for point for the last six to eight weeks. Feel free to go back and check that for yourself.

That said the difference between the latter issues is that one of them has been killing at a daily rate more than the worst conditions including cancer and heart disease. So, if you can't see that these aren't exactly co-equals then you won't see that one is more dangerous than the other. I haven't seen too many deaths occurring from famine in the U.S., and every single community and state has programs in place to help people find food and mental health support - and a lot of these efforts have kicked into overtime given the situation). It's a lot easier to find a way to get somebody a sandwich than it is to prevent a death of that same person who might have asthma or diabetes or some other condition that offers them a high probability of dying if they encounter the virus.

But all those issues you mentioned are real concerns and I'm concerned about those too (except government over reach - that one is a manufactured political ploy in the midst of a real crisis which I find to be abhorrent).

This is a global issue, remember "We're all in this together!". UN stated a few days ago that nearly 260 million around the world have been put into food insecurity due to all this. The US may be ok in your mind but repercussions stretch much further than just our little 'Merica bubble.

Government overreach has been continually increasing over the past 50 years. When you see police arresting protesters without wearing masks and gloves themselves or you see politicians standing side by side without the same, this should tell you something is afoot. Although I can't blame you for not wanting to speak against the same entity that provides your meal ticket.

Best of luck to you and your family, we will just have agree to disagree on the current situation.

I'm not addressing generalities or the last 50 years. That's another issue all together. Completely and mutually exclusive to the current issue. I might even be willing to agree with that broader statement.

But to say that in this instance is inappropriate. In fact, I'm watching play out just how truly anguishing these decisions are. This is why policy ain't easy.

clt hopes the murder hornets wear masks when they attack us