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What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
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JRsec Offline
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What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
What if a year without football revenue shrinks the P5? Consider these factors:

In the PAC no programs would be as impacted to the negative as Washington State (which Leach abandoned willingly) and Oregon State.

What if Boston College and Wake Forest say enough? Boston College might prefer to concentrate on basketball and consider rejoining the Big East. Wake might consider asking for a partial membership in everything but football to keep hoops associations and old ties intact in the ACC. How about Duke? I think they are more likely to gut it out than the other two.

In the Big 12 I don't believe anyone bails. Nor do I believe anyone in the Big 10 does, well at least not Northwestern. Would Purdue? Probably not but still they've had trouble keeping pace with renovations and other Big 10 points of emphasis for athletics.

Does Vandy holler 'nuf on football and use the space of their stadium for other purposes on a cramped campus? If so do they push for partial status to maintain SEC relations?

But if any of these slots opened up what then? In the ACC it would create a fundamental change which would require the renewal of the GOR and might open a window that some parties would love to have opened.

In the SEC it might open a slot to make accommodating another school with either UT or OU possible.

In the PAC it may take the stress off enough to enable better payouts if they stick at 10 or it might indeed make a merger with the Big 12 a better bet.

It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3.

Take 9 schools of the Big 12 (no WVU) add the 10 remaining schools of the PAC and slip B.Y.U. into the Texas division:

California, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Washington
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Southern Cal
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The B1G goes for 6: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech.

Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia
Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern

The SEC lands 7: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia, West Virginia.

Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Florida State, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

Vanderbilt joins the SEC as its first and only partial member for everything but football.

Syracuse and Boston College join the Big East.

Washington State and Oregon State join the MWC.

Wake Forest joins the ACC as a partial for everything but football.
04-22-2020 10:21 PM
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RE: What If...
(04-22-2020 10:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What if a year without football revenue shrinks the P5? Consider these factors:

In the PAC no programs would be as impacted to the negative as Washington State (which Leach abandoned willingly) and Oregon State.

What if Boston College and Wake Forest say enough? Boston College might prefer to concentrate on basketball and consider rejoining the Big East. Wake might consider asking for a partial membership in everything but football to keep hoops associations and old ties intact in the ACC. How about Duke? I think they are more likely to gut it out than the other two.

In the Big 12 I don't believe anyone bails. Nor do I believe anyone in the Big 10 does, well at least not Northwestern. Would Purdue? Probably not but still they've had trouble keeping pace with renovations and other Big 10 points of emphasis for athletics.

Does Vandy holler 'nuf on football and use the space of their stadium for other purposes on a cramped campus? If so do they push for partial status to maintain SEC relations?

But if any of these slots opened up what then? In the ACC it would create a fundamental change which would require the renewal of the GOR and might open a window that some parties would love to have opened.

In the SEC it might open a slot to make accommodating another school with either UT or OU possible.

In the PAC it may take the stress off enough to enable better payouts if they stick at 10 or it might indeed make a merger with the Big 12 a better bet.

It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3.

Take 9 schools of the Big 12 (no WVU) add the 10 remaining schools of the PAC and slip B.Y.U. into the Texas division:

California, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Washington
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Southern Cal
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The B1G goes for 6: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech.

Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia
Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern

The SEC lands 7: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia, West Virginia.

Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Florida State, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

Vanderbilt joins the SEC as its first and only partial member for everything but football.

Syracuse and Boston College join the Big East.

Washington State and Oregon State join the MWC.

Wake Forest joins the ACC as a partial for everything but football.

Is the Wake scenario assuming that the ACC would stay together and only Syracuse and Boston College leave?

Otherwise, how would it work if a major part of the core join another conference, unless one of the conditions is that the new conference take in Wake's Olympic sports programs?
04-23-2020 01:18 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-23-2020 01:18 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(04-22-2020 10:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What if a year without football revenue shrinks the P5? Consider these factors:

In the PAC no programs would be as impacted to the negative as Washington State (which Leach abandoned willingly) and Oregon State.

What if Boston College and Wake Forest say enough? Boston College might prefer to concentrate on basketball and consider rejoining the Big East. Wake might consider asking for a partial membership in everything but football to keep hoops associations and old ties intact in the ACC. How about Duke? I think they are more likely to gut it out than the other two.

In the Big 12 I don't believe anyone bails. Nor do I believe anyone in the Big 10 does, well at least not Northwestern. Would Purdue? Probably not but still they've had trouble keeping pace with renovations and other Big 10 points of emphasis for athletics.

Does Vandy holler 'nuf on football and use the space of their stadium for other purposes on a cramped campus? If so do they push for partial status to maintain SEC relations?

But if any of these slots opened up what then? In the ACC it would create a fundamental change which would require the renewal of the GOR and might open a window that some parties would love to have opened.

In the SEC it might open a slot to make accommodating another school with either UT or OU possible.

In the PAC it may take the stress off enough to enable better payouts if they stick at 10 or it might indeed make a merger with the Big 12 a better bet.

It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3.

Take 9 schools of the Big 12 (no WVU) add the 10 remaining schools of the PAC and slip B.Y.U. into the Texas division:

California, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Washington
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Southern Cal
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The B1G goes for 6: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech.

Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia
Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern

The SEC lands 7: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia, West Virginia.

Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Florida State, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

Vanderbilt joins the SEC as its first and only partial member for everything but football.

Syracuse and Boston College join the Big East.

Washington State and Oregon State join the MWC.

Wake Forest joins the ACC as a partial for everything but football.

Is the Wake scenario assuming that the ACC would stay together and only Syracuse and Boston College leave?

Otherwise, how would it work if a major part of the core join another conference, unless one of the conditions is that the new conference take in Wake's Olympic sports programs?

My oversight.

They have 2 options. They might be able to join Vanderbilt as a partial where Wake could balance the SEC for hoops and baseball, or they would maintain scheduling alliances with Duke and North Carolina and possibly Virginia, N.C. State and Clemson and work as an independent.

You know it is highly likely that schools like Wake and Vandy simply drop everything but baseball and a few minor sports they simply choose to keep for donor or tradition reasons. Nobody is going to get hit worse than privates. Most have cut ties from their religious roots so they have little support from their original denominations, and by tossing in with secular schools they find they are limited in their research facilities. Vanderbilt is solid, I'm just not sure they have sports as a priority, and face it, the venues take up campus space that is more valuable to Vanderbilt in other ways.

And if all else fails for Wake they can always attempt to go Big East as well or get in on the ground floor for an all privates conference which legally is forced to manage the change in how student athletes are seen under the law. Privates will have a different latitude with that than state schools.

Partial memberships are a segue out of a membership anyway. Notre Dame says their partial membership is a segue into one, but I sincerely doubt it. It's more of a clinging to a passing paradigm than an entrance into a conference.
(This post was last modified: 04-23-2020 10:36 AM by JRsec.)
04-23-2020 10:31 AM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
JRsec: "It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3."

Or, 60 member P4 @ 15 members each; no divisions or 5 member core pods.
04-23-2020 02:22 PM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-23-2020 02:22 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec: "It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3."

Or, 60 member P4 @ 15 members each; no divisions or 5 member core pods.

Nope, because in a P4 of 15 schools each you can't draw the majority of the PAC into the Big 12 to eliminate the two weakest links on the West Coast, nor can you draw in enough of the ACC to eliminate their weakest.

What would happen is Oklahoma to the SEC, Kansas to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC and Texas to the PAC and a lot of much better schools than Oregon State, Washington State, Boston College, and Wake Forest would get hosed.
04-23-2020 02:30 PM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-23-2020 02:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:22 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec: "It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3."

Or, 60 member P4 @ 15 members each; no divisions or 5 member core pods.

Nope, because in a P4 of 15 schools each you can't draw the majority of the PAC into the Big 12 to eliminate the two weakest links on the West Coast, nor can you draw in enough of the ACC to eliminate their weakest.

What would happen is Oklahoma to the SEC, Kansas to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC and Texas to the PAC and a lot of much better schools than Oregon State, Washington State, Boston College, and Wake Forest would get hosed.

Some formula would have to be devised to identify the 60 best. Maybe there would be.4-5 volunteering to leave due to finances, but that is doubtful. Otherwise it will be a nasty process. Cutting it to four (or 3) conferences, is assuming the PAC and B12 converge into one with significant extractions, while the ACC kicks out a couple.
An argument for a standard of twenty team conferences may be more messy than Utopian. There will be strains for Olympic type sports in several dimensions.

I lean to believe departures out of conferences will be more a natural, self-selection process done on a conference level and not by a grander "P governance" design. Reaching a 60 team symmetircal order, I'd bet against it. Doubtful the SEC, BIG, probably others, will relinquish individual conference power for a collective of greater control. Three conferring conference bodies is assuming they all remain on the same page. Power sharing seldom works beautifully.

Beyond the named exclusions of WSU, Oregon State, WFU, BC, etc., there are still schools in the blessed 60 that may not be as worthy as a handful of current G-5 schools, looking a measures external to current conference distributions. Grandfathering is usually all or nothing.
(This post was last modified: 04-23-2020 03:59 PM by OdinFrigg.)
04-23-2020 03:58 PM
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RE: What If ...
(04-23-2020 10:31 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 01:18 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(04-22-2020 10:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What if a year without football revenue shrinks the P5? Consider these factors:

In the PAC no programs would be as impacted to the negative as Washington State (which Leach abandoned willingly) and Oregon State.

What if Boston College and Wake Forest say enough? Boston College might prefer to concentrate on basketball and consider rejoining the Big East. Wake might consider asking for a partial membership in everything but football to keep hoops associations and old ties intact in the ACC. How about Duke? I think they are more likely to gut it out than the other two.

In the Big 12 I don't believe anyone bails. Nor do I believe anyone in the Big 10 does, well at least not Northwestern. Would Purdue? Probably not but still they've had trouble keeping pace with renovations and other Big 10 points of emphasis for athletics.

Does Vandy holler 'nuf on football and use the space of their stadium for other purposes on a cramped campus? If so do they push for partial status to maintain SEC relations?

But if any of these slots opened up what then? In the ACC it would create a fundamental change which would require the renewal of the GOR and might open a window that some parties would love to have opened.

In the SEC it might open a slot to make accommodating another school with either UT or OU possible.

In the PAC it may take the stress off enough to enable better payouts if they stick at 10 or it might indeed make a merger with the Big 12 a better bet.

It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3.

Take 9 schools of the Big 12 (no WVU) add the 10 remaining schools of the PAC and slip B.Y.U. into the Texas division:

California, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Washington
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Southern Cal
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The B1G goes for 6: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech.

Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia
Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern

The SEC lands 7: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia, West Virginia.

Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Florida State, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

Vanderbilt joins the SEC as its first and only partial member for everything but football.

Syracuse and Boston College join the Big East.

Washington State and Oregon State join the MWC.

Wake Forest joins the ACC as a partial for everything but football.

Is the Wake scenario assuming that the ACC would stay together and only Syracuse and Boston College leave?

Otherwise, how would it work if a major part of the core join another conference, unless one of the conditions is that the new conference take in Wake's Olympic sports programs?

My oversight.

They have 2 options. They might be able to join Vanderbilt as a partial where Wake could balance the SEC for hoops and baseball, or they would maintain scheduling alliances with Duke and North Carolina and possibly Virginia, N.C. State and Clemson and work as an independent.

You know it is highly likely that schools like Wake and Vandy simply drop everything but baseball and a few minor sports they simply choose to keep for donor or tradition reasons. Nobody is going to get hit worse than privates. Most have cut ties from their religious roots so they have little support from their original denominations, and by tossing in with secular schools they find they are limited in their research facilities. Vanderbilt is solid, I'm just not sure they have sports as a priority, and face it, the venues take up campus space that is more valuable to Vanderbilt in other ways.

And if all else fails for Wake they can always attempt to go Big East as well or get in on the ground floor for an all privates conference which legally is forced to manage the change in how student athletes are seen under the law. Privates will have a different latitude with that than state schools.

Partial memberships are a segue out of a membership anyway. Notre Dame says their partial membership is a segue into one, but I sincerely doubt it. It's more of a clinging to a passing paradigm than an entrance into a conference.

I just watched a video that referenced the opinion of Harvard business professor Clayton Christensen predicting that upwards of 50% of colleges would close by 2030. Whether this pandemic confirms or even accelerates that trend remains to be seen but I think that possibility is real. What happens with the FBS programs then is another matter.

It's possible that the conferences turn themselves into associations. All of a sudden, questions of ideally combining institutional fit + relative geographical proximity give way to the reality of either hanging together or hanging separately. If that's the case, then programs like West Virginia may find themselves in the catbird seat, as programs look for the best available sports programs which aren't too far to travel to from certain geographic points. Maybe pairing WVU with VT, UK and UL make better sense then these left in separate conferences. I do wonder whether Georgia Tech would be better off sticking to the UNC/Duke/UVa core or would they go with the Clemson/Florida State/Miami trio.

Something like what what YNot proposed in the main board may be a more likely scenario, as I do not see the Pacific coast schools giving up their academic elitist ambitions and would rather associate with like-minded schools in the Midwest even when the distances would be much greater.
(This post was last modified: 04-23-2020 06:41 PM by Transic_nyc.)
04-23-2020 06:34 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-23-2020 03:58 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:22 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec: "It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3."

Or, 60 member P4 @ 15 members each; no divisions or 5 member core pods.

Nope, because in a P4 of 15 schools each you can't draw the majority of the PAC into the Big 12 to eliminate the two weakest links on the West Coast, nor can you draw in enough of the ACC to eliminate their weakest.

What would happen is Oklahoma to the SEC, Kansas to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC and Texas to the PAC and a lot of much better schools than Oregon State, Washington State, Boston College, and Wake Forest would get hosed.

Some formula would have to be devised to identify the 60 best. Maybe there would be.4-5 volunteering to leave due to finances, but that is doubtful. Otherwise it will be a nasty process. Cutting it to four (or 3) conferences, is assuming the PAC and B12 converge into one with significant extractions, while the ACC kicks out a couple.
An argument for a standard of twenty team conferences may be more messy than Utopian. There will be strains for Olympic type sports in several dimensions.

I lean to believe departures out of conferences will be more a natural, self-selection process done on a conference level and not by a grander "P governance" design. Reaching a 60 team symmetircal order, I'd bet against it. Doubtful the SEC, BIG, probably others, will relinquish individual conference power for a collective of greater control. Three conferring conference bodies is assuming they all remain on the same page. Power sharing seldom works beautifully.

Beyond the named exclusions of WSU, Oregon State, WFU, BC, etc., there are still schools in the blessed 60 that may not be as worthy as a handful of current G-5 schools, looking a measures external to current conference distributions. Grandfathering is usually all or nothing.

I actually believe that after COVID19 we could have between 4 to 6 schools that opt out at the upper level for a variety of reasons: Pay for Play, Realization that another Black Swan Event could Bankrupt Them, Just Don't Have the Space to Dedicate to Athletics., Overall Lack of Funds.

I don't think getting to 60 would be the issue at all. But I do think the division into 3 conferences would be tough and would need the networks and commissioners in order to reach a reasonable division. In fact where we are headed we might even have as few as 54 programs in an upper tier.

The negative consequences of this event have yet to reach cascade velocity in terms of the ruin and change they are going to bring.
04-23-2020 06:37 PM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
Piggybacking off of JR's latest comment, I am seeing fewer and fewer reasons outside of the TV $$$ that Vandy is remaining in the SEC. As Nashville becomes more cosmopolitan, the bubble surrounding the Vanderbilt campus (aka Midtown) is completely disconnected from "State" or at least regional mentalities that rule the day among most SEC fanbases. The actual city of Nashville is much more akin to cities like Miami, Chicago, and Atlanta that operate like city-states. Don't get me wrong; UT and other SEC fanbases surround Vandy's campus in Midtown like the Whitewalkers north of The Wall in Game of Thrones. The whole state of Tennessee is SEC except for a few square miles in downtown Nashville. Downtown folks just like taking your money for basketball tournaments and the Music City Bowl, but man they sure can grin while doing it!

What I am getting at is that the SEC Network would get the exact same carriage and almost the exact same audience in Nashville whether or not Vandy was involved. If you told most Vandy fans that they are dropping all SEC games except UT as a non-conference opponent in place of Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Wake Forest, not much would change in their interest, attendance, or contribution decisions. Put another way, how much would ESPN actually spend on Vanderbilt athletics if in an open market situation like Notre Dame with NBC? For football, their revenue value is in the visiting team.

If the ACC ever decided to lean into the public Ivy approach with a shuffling started by the SEC and BIG, then Vanderbilt and Northwestern make a ton of sense there in every way except the revenue $$$. However, at that juncture, expenses would reduce dramatically, as well, and the ACC functions more like a beefed up IVY league. This would be a logical outcome if the SEC and BIG make offers that cannot be refused to schools that fit our cultures better than public IVY, such as Florida State, NC State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech.

But you may ask why the ACC would ever give up equality with the SEC and BIG? The truth is that it is an unsustainable mirage. Others have given the numbers in great detail, but the ACC without Florida State and Louisville are not just millions, but tens of millions off of the average SEC and BIG school revenue draws, especially if you knock Vandy and Northwestern out of the equation. I hope that Vandy ends up in the ACC after the herd is thinned because I really want them to succeed and have their best fit. Sometimes it takes extreme circumstances to get us where we need to be so that we can truly flourish.
04-24-2020 08:58 AM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
If you get a collection of private schools that abandon football then I think that changes certain equations.

I don't believe we'll have a year without football revenue, but economic damage has already been done in certain sectors which means donations(both athletic and academic) are going to take a hit for quite some time. The private schools are the ones least equipped to deal with that.

For one, they don't have state funds to fall back on. Secondly, their student bodies aren't remotely large enough to spread the weight of subsidies around. Not that most private school families don't have the money, but they're not forking over huge sums to these schools in exchange for the athletic experience.

Maybe Vanderbilt and Wake Forest drop football...if they do then the Big East is a good landing spot for the both of them actually. Nashville is a good market for that league and an old school ACC brand helps them too. If Syracuse and Boston College are in that boat then all the league needs is one more candidate and they'll have 16.

Anyway, if the ACC loses members like that then they could reconstitute with a better, more efficient contract. But you've also got members that would probably rather leave at that point.

With the SEC now needing a private school to fill a slot, I think an odd little scenario has developed where the Triangle could be taken to move to 16. The SEC has their private school and all the NC schools stick together. Beyond that; Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech could round everything out at 20.
04-24-2020 01:38 PM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-24-2020 01:38 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If you get a collection of private schools that abandon football then I think that changes certain equations.

I don't believe we'll have a year without football revenue, but economic damage has already been done in certain sectors which means donations(both athletic and academic) are going to take a hit for quite some time. The private schools are the ones least equipped to deal with that.

For one, they don't have state funds to fall back on. Secondly, their student bodies aren't remotely large enough to spread the weight of subsidies around. Not that most private school families don't have the money, but they're not forking over huge sums to these schools in exchange for the athletic experience.

Maybe Vanderbilt and Wake Forest drop football...if they do then the Big East is a good landing spot for the both of them actually. Nashville is a good market for that league and an old school ACC brand helps them too. If Syracuse and Boston College are in that boat then all the league needs is one more candidate and they'll have 16.

Anyway, if the ACC loses members like that then they could reconstitute with a better, more efficient contract. But you've also got members that would probably rather leave at that point.

With the SEC now needing a private school to fill a slot, I think an odd little scenario has developed where the Triangle could be taken to move to 16. The SEC has their private school and all the NC schools stick together. Beyond that; Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech could round everything out at 20.

This could be likelier than some realize. Not in the distribution of the schools you mentioned, although that would be possible, but from the standpoint of the ACC not surviving it.

Wake is another complicit vote with UNC. If they left and two were added including Notre Dame then North Carolina would find their block control 1 vote short of being able to stop recommendations they didn't like. Under those conditions they might toss in the towel and make a move that paid them more lucratively.

The question ATU is would the SEC really want 3 schools when they could get what they wanted out of the state by just taking N.C. State? The money schools are Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State is your market grab.

Virginia, North Carolina and Duke have great basketball and academic branding but are not athletic powerhouses outside of hoops and lacrosse.

Part of me would love to see the academic prestige added to the SEC, but at what cost? The question in my mind is who is #6? Do we need Miami if we have F.S.U.? F.S.U. and Florida gives us about 82% of the state which is more than enough for top ad rates. Louisville gives us a natural rival for Kentucky and a national brand in hoops. Plus they play decent football and solid baseball. I don't see B.C., Pitt, or Syracuse as being an option and I don't think N.D. has any interest. We have 85% of the Georgia market without Tech but we might take them to keep the Big 10 out of Atlanta.

But make no mistake, Wake Forest is an important cog in the UNC machine and without them things change.

The pay for play with boosters, the loss of Tourney revenue, and what will no doubt be a truncated if not eliminated football season is going to push more than a few over the ledge. So we should keep an open mind and listening ear to the events that will unfold. And to toss another wrinkle in, what if talks between Apple and the PAC prove unproductive?

But I really think that there is a good chance the ACC could lose B.C. and Wake and yes they would both make good Big East members, especially with Vandy. Now if Vandy leaves then as you say Duke would make a very nice replacement, but so too would T.C.U. With 7 slots open the SEC could take the research triangle and still accommodate both Virginia schools and Clemson and Florida State. I think that would be ideal from the standpoint of keeping the Big 10 out of the Southeast. No Virginia and no North Carolina schools mean no access.

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech (Kentucky)
Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Florida State, South Carolina (Georgia Tech)
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee (West Virginia)
Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M (Miami & Louisville)

The ACC contingent wouldn't add revenue to the SEC but it would add branding in hoops and a couple of football brands, and total leverage over the Southeast markets. Bracketed Teams so the placement in a move to 24.

Really the only casualty with this set up is Louisville which could likely join an expanding Big 12 or help to form a new conference.

Let's say the PAC can't cut a deal with Apple. Now the Big 10 cut out of the Southeast almost has to look west. Northwestern is committed so I don't think they drop down. The Big 10 could pick up the 4 California schools and Washington and add Colorado as a bridge.

The Big 12 picks up Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Brigham Young to the West. The pick up Louisville, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Baylor, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Utah
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Let's look at the Big 10 at 20 and 24:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers (Syracuse)
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue (Illinois)
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern (Colorado & Utah)
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington (Oregon)

Now here are the problems for Oklahoma and Kansas and Texas.
1. West Virginia is wholly on an island with no hope for help.
2. Expansion to the West has little value.

But if Texas and Oklahoma wanted to keep their path to themselves this would be the result:
Central Florida, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
Baylor, Colorado State, Houston, Texas, Texas Tech, Tulane
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State

I don't think that could be helpful to their finances. So how do we rectify this issue?

Arizona, Utah, Iowa State and Kansas move to the Big 10 to take them to 28 (4 division of 7 each). Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State join the SEC to take it to 28.

Big 10:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
Arizona, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

That's 25 AAU schools, 2 former AAU schools (Nebraska & Syracuse) and Notre Dame.

SEC:
Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, West Virginia
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Now assuming that Oregon State and Washington State can't keep up, and that Arizona State is not AAU, you have those 3 joining the Mountain West. Remember no damages because the GOR expired in the PAC. Baylor and T.C.U. are free to head to the AAC or form an all privates league which might include the 3 service academies and Brigham Young. Boston College and Wake Forest drop football and join Connecticut in the Big East.
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2020 09:19 PM by JRsec.)
04-24-2020 02:41 PM
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OdinFrigg Offline
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-23-2020 06:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 03:58 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:22 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec: "It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3."

Or, 60 member P4 @ 15 members each; no divisions or 5 member core pods.

Nope, because in a P4 of 15 schools each you can't draw the majority of the PAC into the Big 12 to eliminate the two weakest links on the West Coast, nor can you draw in enough of the ACC to eliminate their weakest.

What would happen is Oklahoma to the SEC, Kansas to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC and Texas to the PAC and a lot of much better schools than Oregon State, Washington State, Boston College, and Wake Forest would get hosed.

Some formula would have to be devised to identify the 60 best. Maybe there would be.4-5 volunteering to leave due to finances, but that is doubtful. Otherwise it will be a nasty process. Cutting it to four (or 3) conferences, is assuming the PAC and B12 converge into one with significant extractions, while the ACC kicks out a couple.
An argument for a standard of twenty team conferences may be more messy than Utopian. There will be strains for Olympic type sports in several dimensions.

I lean to believe departures out of conferences will be more a natural, self-selection process done on a conference level and not by a grander "P governance" design. Reaching a 60 team symmetircal order, I'd bet against it. Doubtful the SEC, BIG, probably others, will relinquish individual conference power for a collective of greater control. Three conferring conference bodies is assuming they all remain on the same page. Power sharing seldom works beautifully.

Beyond the named exclusions of WSU, Oregon State, WFU, BC, etc., there are still schools in the blessed 60 that may not be as worthy as a handful of current G-5 schools, looking a measures external to current conference distributions. Grandfathering is usually all or nothing.

I actually believe that after COVID19 we could have between 4 to 6 schools that opt out at the upper level for a variety of reasons: Pay for Play, Realization that another Black Swan Event could Bankrupt Them, Just Don't Have the Space to Dedicate to Athletics., Overall Lack of Funds.

I don't think getting to 60 would be the issue at all. But I do think the division into 3 conferences would be tough and would need the networks and commissioners in order to reach a reasonable division. In fact where we are headed we might even have as few as 54 programs in an upper tier.

The negative consequences of this event have yet to reach cascade velocity in terms of the ruin and change they are going to bring.
Interesting you mentioned COVID-19. The impact this is having on mental health is immense. Yet, the media is rendering this factor scant coverage. I was pressed to help part-time at a regional treatment facility with hospitalization and outpatient services. I still have an active clinical license. So I go weekday mornings and feel exhausted when I leave each midday. I wear the protective gear, and communicate from behind plexiglass. I'm retired and don't need the work, but feel I'm doing something useful, though not void of fear myself.
Why I am telling this on social media about college sports, perhaps is best left unexplained.

I have a perspective that this COVID-19 experience will have an impact on future college athletics beyoñd the efforts for financial recovery. Colleges may miss a calendar year without classroom instruction, and the loss of tuition, activity fees, housing fees, etc. being collected.
Professors, coaches under contract, staff, auxillary services, will all want paid.

I agree that collegiate sports divisions and conference will change. There are many college sports programs that were already functioning in the red during normal times.

Those networks, ESPN, Fox, etc. are taking a financial hit as well with the loss of live broadcasts and dropped advertising revenue. When matters take a much more positive course, I am not sure the heavy reliance on near future broadcasting revenue will be seen as highly benevolent. Those with strong and multiple revenue streams will certainly, comparatively, be in a better position.
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2020 08:51 PM by OdinFrigg.)
04-24-2020 08:39 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #13
RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-24-2020 08:39 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 06:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 03:58 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-23-2020 02:22 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec: "It would certainly pave the way for a move to a 60 member P3."

Or, 60 member P4 @ 15 members each; no divisions or 5 member core pods.

Nope, because in a P4 of 15 schools each you can't draw the majority of the PAC into the Big 12 to eliminate the two weakest links on the West Coast, nor can you draw in enough of the ACC to eliminate their weakest.

What would happen is Oklahoma to the SEC, Kansas to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC and Texas to the PAC and a lot of much better schools than Oregon State, Washington State, Boston College, and Wake Forest would get hosed.

Some formula would have to be devised to identify the 60 best. Maybe there would be.4-5 volunteering to leave due to finances, but that is doubtful. Otherwise it will be a nasty process. Cutting it to four (or 3) conferences, is assuming the PAC and B12 converge into one with significant extractions, while the ACC kicks out a couple.
An argument for a standard of twenty team conferences may be more messy than Utopian. There will be strains for Olympic type sports in several dimensions.

I lean to believe departures out of conferences will be more a natural, self-selection process done on a conference level and not by a grander "P governance" design. Reaching a 60 team symmetircal order, I'd bet against it. Doubtful the SEC, BIG, probably others, will relinquish individual conference power for a collective of greater control. Three conferring conference bodies is assuming they all remain on the same page. Power sharing seldom works beautifully.

Beyond the named exclusions of WSU, Oregon State, WFU, BC, etc., there are still schools in the blessed 60 that may not be as worthy as a handful of current G-5 schools, looking a measures external to current conference distributions. Grandfathering is usually all or nothing.

I actually believe that after COVID19 we could have between 4 to 6 schools that opt out at the upper level for a variety of reasons: Pay for Play, Realization that another Black Swan Event could Bankrupt Them, Just Don't Have the Space to Dedicate to Athletics., Overall Lack of Funds.

I don't think getting to 60 would be the issue at all. But I do think the division into 3 conferences would be tough and would need the networks and commissioners in order to reach a reasonable division. In fact where we are headed we might even have as few as 54 programs in an upper tier.

The negative consequences of this event have yet to reach cascade velocity in terms of the ruin and change they are going to bring.
Interesting you mentioned COVID-19. The impact this is having on mental health is immense. Yet, the media is rendering this factor scant coverage. I was pressed to help part-time at a regional treatment facility with hospitalization and outpatient services. I still have an active clinical license. So I go weekday mornings and feel exhausted when I leave each midday. I wear the protective gear, and communicate from behind plexiglass. I'm retired and don't need the work, but feel I'm doing something useful, though not void of fear myself.
Why I am telling this on social media about college sports, perhaps is best left unexplained.

I have a perspective that this COVID-19 experience will have an impact on future college athletics beyoñd the efforts for financial recovery. Colleges may miss a calendar year without classroom instruction, and the loss of tuition, activity fees, housing fees, etc. being collected.
Professors, coaches under contract, staff, auxillary services, will all want paid.

I agree that collegiate sports divisions and conference will change. There are many college sports programs that were already functioning in the red during normal times.

Those networks, ESPN, Fox, etc. are taking a financial hit as well with the loss of live broadcasts and dropped advertising revenue. When matters take a much more positive course, I am not sure the heavy reliance on near future broadcasting revenue will be seen as highly benevolent. Those with strong and multiple revenue streams will certainly, comparatively, be in a better position.

I think we may wind up looking at 2 leagues of 4 divisions of 7 schools per division. In other words 56 schools make the cut.

I think small privates, especially in light of booster contracts and pay, are gong to opt out.

Kudos! The essence of courage is answering a call to serve in spite of fear.

My phone has been ringing almost every day from people who are calling to talk about their problems. If I was not retired I'd be swamped.

I have been encouraging people to look up old friends and give them a call to check on them. My unstated purpose is to help them to rebuild a social circle even if by phone. Old friends are a good place to start as they likely need the conversation as well. I'm also encouraging people to call those persons they have considered extremely important to their lives to thank them. This helps people get rid of unresolved regrets at a time they are fearful. So it unburdens their minds of negative clutter and makes them feel better about themselves in the process and I would think it is probably well received on the other end as well.

What has been severed are our connections of face to face social circles. It's time to rebuild them long distance via the fiber optic cable.

FOX and ESPN will be fine. But I'm dead serious about leaving the NCAA. The shares they should have paid in tourney creds this year was from money they earned 6 years ago off of the NCAA basketball tourney. What a cheesy bureaucratic and selfish move to cut shares of money they've made interest on for 6 years. This above all other reasons is testimony to their having outlived their usefulness.
04-24-2020 09:32 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #14
RE: What If...
(04-24-2020 02:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Big 10:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
Arizona, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

That's 25 AAU schools, 2 former AAU schools (Nebraska & Syracuse) and Notre Dame.

SEC:
Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, West Virginia
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Now assuming that Oregon State and Washington State can't keep up, and that Arizona State is not AAU, you have those 3 joining the Mountain West. Remember no damages because the GOR expired in the PAC. Baylor and T.C.U. are free to head to the AAC or form an all privates league which might include the 3 service academies and Brigham Young. Boston College and Wake Forest drop football and join Connecticut in the Big East.

Some consolidation is bound to happen even if only due to a political realignment. The timeline may be a bit optimistic, as the current conferences aren't in a rush to align to each other and conference commissioners will make sure that college programs aren't antsy enough to move around. This would require presidents doing the very unorthodox thing.

In any case, the new structure that is bound to emerge will, by necessity, drift the identities of the old conferences into the dustbin of history. Even the vaunted SEC would be no more once enough programs from what was once the ACC and elements of the former Southwest Conference join. It'll be regional enough because the cultures within aren't that different, with the noted exception of the Tobacco Road schools.

It'd be the Big Ten that would change the most, but it would simply be an acceleration of a process that has been already underway, forced by internal migration and cultural shifts. Taking in schools from places from the Pacific coast to the Atlantic states will dramatically change its character. Even if the Domers join it still wouldn't be the Big Ten because the Big Ten would be well far from its roots to become a true national entity (and probably an easier pill to swallow for ND).

Would a PAC deal with a streaming company change the equation? Maybe. Even a moderately profitable deal with be short-lived as the Big Ten and/or SEC could use the template established to get a mega deal and things go back to where it was last left off. This is where branding makes all the difference.
04-25-2020 09:50 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #15
RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-25-2020 09:50 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(04-24-2020 02:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Big 10:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
Arizona, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

That's 25 AAU schools, 2 former AAU schools (Nebraska & Syracuse) and Notre Dame.

SEC:
Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, West Virginia
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Now assuming that Oregon State and Washington State can't keep up, and that Arizona State is not AAU, you have those 3 joining the Mountain West. Remember no damages because the GOR expired in the PAC. Baylor and T.C.U. are free to head to the AAC or form an all privates league which might include the 3 service academies and Brigham Young. Boston College and Wake Forest drop football and join Connecticut in the Big East.

Some consolidation is bound to happen even if only due to a political realignment. The timeline may be a bit optimistic, as the current conferences aren't in a rush to align to each other and conference commissioners will make sure that college programs aren't antsy enough to move around. This would require presidents doing the very unorthodox thing.

In any case, the new structure that is bound to emerge will, by necessity, drift the identities of the old conferences into the dustbin of history. Even the vaunted SEC would be no more once enough programs from what was once the ACC and elements of the former Southwest Conference join. It'll be regional enough because the cultures within aren't that different, with the noted exception of the Tobacco Road schools.

It'd be the Big Ten that would change the most, but it would simply be an acceleration of a process that has been already underway, forced by internal migration and cultural shifts. Taking in schools from places from the Pacific coast to the Atlantic states will dramatically change its character. Even if the Domers join it still wouldn't be the Big Ten because the Big Ten would be well far from its roots to become a true national entity (and probably an easier pill to swallow for ND).

Would a PAC deal with a streaming company change the equation? Maybe. Even a moderately profitable deal with be short-lived as the Big Ten and/or SEC could use the template established to get a mega deal and things go back to where it was last left off. This is where branding makes all the difference.

Streaming will still come down to viewers motivated enough to stream. The track record for the PAC in that regard is extremely lackluster.
04-25-2020 11:20 AM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #16
RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
When it comes to the PAC and Apple...even if they strike a deal, I don't see it being that beneficial. Any short term increase in revenue, and I don't think it would be that much, would be balanced by a significant loss of exposure.

When it comes to streaming sports content, right now ESPN is the only real player. Their advantage is bundling content to a wide variety of tastes. It's the same principle that made their cable empire blossom, and while streaming is a different business model, they have a foundation and a brand to build on. Any newcomers will have to garner a sports-centric audience and they won't have very much branding power to aid them in that effort.

I suppose it's possible DAZN could become a player in the not too distant future, but they don't have a great deal of content right now. Their strength is being a player internationally, but they have no traditional media infrastructure to fall back on. If they grow, it will be slowly.

The PAC will be better served to tie their fortunes to other leagues whether that's through merger or simply combined media deals.
04-27-2020 03:46 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #17
RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
I do think that the SEC and ACC will inevitably be tied together...one way or the other.

The SEC isn't going to divest from Disney because the pay is too good. The ACC isn't going to do it because their contract is so stinking long that it's simply out of the question to even think about it. Even if their contract was short term, it's unlikely anyone else would give them a better deal.

With that said, ESPN would probably be better served to integrate the two for content purposes.

I don't think Louisville gets left out though because the TV product is too good.

If they did something like this...

Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Join them up with the SEC. If need be, then West Virginia could slide in and replace a Vanderbilt that's dropped football...I think that's the X factor.

This 24 team monolith is a pretty strong content generator and it allows a lot of regional games without forcing schools into flying across the country for regular match-ups that their fans don't care about.
04-27-2020 04:45 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #18
RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-27-2020 04:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I do think that the SEC and ACC will inevitably be tied together...one way or the other.

The SEC isn't going to divest from Disney because the pay is too good. The ACC isn't going to do it because their contract is so stinking long that it's simply out of the question to even think about it. Even if their contract was short term, it's unlikely anyone else would give them a better deal.

With that said, ESPN would probably be better served to integrate the two for content purposes.

I don't think Louisville gets left out though because the TV product is too good.

If they did something like this...

Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Join them up with the SEC. If need be, then West Virginia could slide in and replace a Vanderbilt that's dropped football...I think that's the X factor.

This 24 team monolith is a pretty strong content generator and it allows a lot of regional games without forcing schools into flying across the country for regular match-ups that their fans don't care about.

A merger costs money. But, I like the idea. Consider this. What if the SEC is the top paid conference and the ACC is near the bottom in pay so that ESPN can absorb the Big 12 without having to pony up a lot more money?

The SEC is set up to slide Texas and Oklahoma into it because both rate the level of pay the SEC will be making. Maybe Kanas too, if Vanderbilt decides it can't keep up.

The ACC is set up to take West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, T.C.U., Baylor, Texas Tech, or Iowa State.

Of course they won't take them all but I could see them taking 3 to move to 18.

What they won't do is drive up to Texas level payouts the contracts they have with Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, and other such ACC programs. Any of the 7 I listed above fit in with this pay grade quite well, especially in a must move situation.

Who is it that is essential for ESPN from the Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Who is it that is essential for Texas and Oklahoma to maintain: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State. Who adds value to the SEC: Texas and Oklahoma or either with Kansas.

But what has been missing in this discussion is that ESPN has full rights now to 2 conferences. One at the low end of the pay scale and one at the top of it. The reasoning is obvious from a business standpoint. They are willing to pay top dollar for Texas and Oklahoma against other top dollar schools. They may even be willing to pay top dollar for Kansas to pit against Kentucky for the Winter schedule.

What they aren't willing to do is to elevate the other 7 of the Big 12 to SEC levels unless they have to in order to move Texas and Oklahoma and then it would be no more than 2.

They are perfectly fine with moving the ACCN into the Texas market and with utilizing WVU to drive content value for the ACC.

It's just another way to think about this, and a logical way to boot.`

If I were running ESPN here's what I might look at doing:
SEC:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

ACC:
Baylor, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Miami, T.C.U.,
Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Louisville, Wake Forest
Boston College, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

B1G:
Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Yes if Notre Dame has to go all in they take the money. Twice as much is danged hard to turn down, especially in light of recent non sports related economic pressures.

The PAC: Remains the same minus Colorado (leaves for a lot more money) and they add Nevada to fill that slot and consider Wyoming and New Mexico and San Diego State, and yes B.Y.U..
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2020 05:25 PM by JRsec.)
04-27-2020 05:04 PM
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RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-27-2020 05:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-27-2020 04:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I do think that the SEC and ACC will inevitably be tied together...one way or the other.

The SEC isn't going to divest from Disney because the pay is too good. The ACC isn't going to do it because their contract is so stinking long that it's simply out of the question to even think about it. Even if their contract was short term, it's unlikely anyone else would give them a better deal.

With that said, ESPN would probably be better served to integrate the two for content purposes.

I don't think Louisville gets left out though because the TV product is too good.

If they did something like this...

Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Join them up with the SEC. If need be, then West Virginia could slide in and replace a Vanderbilt that's dropped football...I think that's the X factor.

This 24 team monolith is a pretty strong content generator and it allows a lot of regional games without forcing schools into flying across the country for regular match-ups that their fans don't care about.

A merger costs money. But, I like the idea. Consider this. What if the SEC is the top paid conference and the ACC is near the bottom in pay so that ESPN can absorb the Big 12 without having to pony up a lot more money?

The SEC is set up to slide Texas and Oklahoma into it because both rate the level of pay the SEC will be making. Maybe Kanas too, if Vanderbilt decides it can't keep up.

The ACC is set up to take West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, T.C.U., Baylor, Texas Tech, or Iowa State.

Of course they won't take them all but I could see them taking 3 to move to 18.

What they won't do is drive up to Texas level payouts the contracts they have with Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, and other such ACC programs. Any of the 7 I listed above fit in with this pay grade quite well, especially in a must move situation.

Who is it that is essential for ESPN from the Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Who is it that is essential for Texas and Oklahoma to maintain: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State. Who adds value to the SEC: Texas and Oklahoma or either with Kansas.

But what has been missing in this discussion is that ESPN has full rights now to 2 conferences. One at the low end of the pay scale and one at the top of it. The reasoning is obvious from a business standpoint. They are willing to pay top dollar for Texas and Oklahoma against other top dollar schools. They may even be willing to pay top dollar for Kansas to pit against Kentucky for the Winter schedule.

What they aren't willing to do is to elevate the other 7 of the Big 12 to SEC levels unless they have to in order to move Texas and Oklahoma and then it would be no more than 2.

They are perfectly fine with moving the ACCN into the Texas market and with utilizing WVU to drive content value for the ACC.

It's just another way to think about this, and a logical way to boot.`

If I were running ESPN here's what I might look at doing:
SEC:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

ACC:
Baylor, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Miami, T.C.U.,
Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Louisville, Wake Forest
Boston College, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

B1G:
Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Yes if Notre Dame has to go all in they take the money. Twice as much is danged hard to turn down, especially in light of recent non sports related economic pressures.

The PAC: Remains the same minus Colorado (leaves for a lot more money) and they add Nevada to fill that slot and consider Wyoming and New Mexico and San Diego State, and yes B.Y.U..

This is the 2nd or 3rd time I’ve seen you mention Nevada for the PAC. There may be more posts. What have you heard, if anything?
04-27-2020 07:31 PM
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Post: #20
RE: What If A Year Without Football Revenue Thins the P5 Herd and Impacts Realignment?
(04-27-2020 07:31 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(04-27-2020 05:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-27-2020 04:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I do think that the SEC and ACC will inevitably be tied together...one way or the other.

The SEC isn't going to divest from Disney because the pay is too good. The ACC isn't going to do it because their contract is so stinking long that it's simply out of the question to even think about it. Even if their contract was short term, it's unlikely anyone else would give them a better deal.

With that said, ESPN would probably be better served to integrate the two for content purposes.

I don't think Louisville gets left out though because the TV product is too good.

If they did something like this...

Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Join them up with the SEC. If need be, then West Virginia could slide in and replace a Vanderbilt that's dropped football...I think that's the X factor.

This 24 team monolith is a pretty strong content generator and it allows a lot of regional games without forcing schools into flying across the country for regular match-ups that their fans don't care about.

A merger costs money. But, I like the idea. Consider this. What if the SEC is the top paid conference and the ACC is near the bottom in pay so that ESPN can absorb the Big 12 without having to pony up a lot more money?

The SEC is set up to slide Texas and Oklahoma into it because both rate the level of pay the SEC will be making. Maybe Kanas too, if Vanderbilt decides it can't keep up.

The ACC is set up to take West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, T.C.U., Baylor, Texas Tech, or Iowa State.

Of course they won't take them all but I could see them taking 3 to move to 18.

What they won't do is drive up to Texas level payouts the contracts they have with Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, and other such ACC programs. Any of the 7 I listed above fit in with this pay grade quite well, especially in a must move situation.

Who is it that is essential for ESPN from the Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Who is it that is essential for Texas and Oklahoma to maintain: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State. Who adds value to the SEC: Texas and Oklahoma or either with Kansas.

But what has been missing in this discussion is that ESPN has full rights now to 2 conferences. One at the low end of the pay scale and one at the top of it. The reasoning is obvious from a business standpoint. They are willing to pay top dollar for Texas and Oklahoma against other top dollar schools. They may even be willing to pay top dollar for Kansas to pit against Kentucky for the Winter schedule.

What they aren't willing to do is to elevate the other 7 of the Big 12 to SEC levels unless they have to in order to move Texas and Oklahoma and then it would be no more than 2.

They are perfectly fine with moving the ACCN into the Texas market and with utilizing WVU to drive content value for the ACC.

It's just another way to think about this, and a logical way to boot.`

If I were running ESPN here's what I might look at doing:
SEC:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

ACC:
Baylor, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Miami, T.C.U.,
Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Louisville, Wake Forest
Boston College, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

B1G:
Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Yes if Notre Dame has to go all in they take the money. Twice as much is danged hard to turn down, especially in light of recent non sports related economic pressures.

The PAC: Remains the same minus Colorado (leaves for a lot more money) and they add Nevada to fill that slot and consider Wyoming and New Mexico and San Diego State, and yes B.Y.U..

This is the 2nd or 3rd time I’ve seen you mention Nevada for the PAC. There may be more posts. What have you heard, if anything?

It is a bit of an early move but the PAC needs solidarity in the West. Nevada is a growing entity that they need a presence in. It's too big of a state to be absent from their lineup for very much longer. So it's merely a logical move. I picked Nevada, it could almost as easily be Nevada Las Vegas.
04-27-2020 07:41 PM
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