(04-24-2020 01:38 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: If you get a collection of private schools that abandon football then I think that changes certain equations.
I don't believe we'll have a year without football revenue, but economic damage has already been done in certain sectors which means donations(both athletic and academic) are going to take a hit for quite some time. The private schools are the ones least equipped to deal with that.
For one, they don't have state funds to fall back on. Secondly, their student bodies aren't remotely large enough to spread the weight of subsidies around. Not that most private school families don't have the money, but they're not forking over huge sums to these schools in exchange for the athletic experience.
Maybe Vanderbilt and Wake Forest drop football...if they do then the Big East is a good landing spot for the both of them actually. Nashville is a good market for that league and an old school ACC brand helps them too. If Syracuse and Boston College are in that boat then all the league needs is one more candidate and they'll have 16.
Anyway, if the ACC loses members like that then they could reconstitute with a better, more efficient contract. But you've also got members that would probably rather leave at that point.
With the SEC now needing a private school to fill a slot, I think an odd little scenario has developed where the Triangle could be taken to move to 16. The SEC has their private school and all the NC schools stick together. Beyond that; Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech could round everything out at 20.
This could be likelier than some realize. Not in the distribution of the schools you mentioned, although that would be possible, but from the standpoint of the ACC not surviving it.
Wake is another complicit vote with UNC. If they left and two were added including Notre Dame then North Carolina would find their block control 1 vote short of being able to stop recommendations they didn't like. Under those conditions they might toss in the towel and make a move that paid them more lucratively.
The question ATU is would the SEC really want 3 schools when they could get what they wanted out of the state by just taking N.C. State? The money schools are Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State is your market grab.
Virginia, North Carolina and Duke have great basketball and academic branding but are not athletic powerhouses outside of hoops and lacrosse.
Part of me would love to see the academic prestige added to the SEC, but at what cost? The question in my mind is who is #6? Do we need Miami if we have F.S.U.? F.S.U. and Florida gives us about 82% of the state which is more than enough for top ad rates. Louisville gives us a natural rival for Kentucky and a national brand in hoops. Plus they play decent football and solid baseball. I don't see B.C., Pitt, or Syracuse as being an option and I don't think N.D. has any interest. We have 85% of the Georgia market without Tech but we might take them to keep the Big 10 out of Atlanta.
But make no mistake, Wake Forest is an important cog in the UNC machine and without them things change.
The pay for play with boosters, the loss of Tourney revenue, and what will no doubt be a truncated if not eliminated football season is going to push more than a few over the ledge. So we should keep an open mind and listening ear to the events that will unfold. And to toss another wrinkle in, what if talks between Apple and the PAC prove unproductive?
But I really think that there is a good chance the ACC could lose B.C. and Wake and yes they would both make good Big East members, especially with Vandy. Now if Vandy leaves then as you say Duke would make a very nice replacement, but so too would T.C.U. With 7 slots open the SEC could take the research triangle and still accommodate both Virginia schools and Clemson and Florida State. I think that would be ideal from the standpoint of keeping the Big 10 out of the Southeast. No Virginia and no North Carolina schools mean no access.
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech (Kentucky)
Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Florida State, South Carolina (Georgia Tech)
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee (West Virginia)
Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M (Miami & Louisville)
The ACC contingent wouldn't add revenue to the SEC but it would add branding in hoops and a couple of football brands, and total leverage over the Southeast markets. Bracketed Teams so the placement in a move to 24.
Really the only casualty with this set up is Louisville which could likely join an expanding Big 12 or help to form a new conference.
Let's say the PAC can't cut a deal with Apple. Now the Big 10 cut out of the Southeast almost has to look west. Northwestern is committed so I don't think they drop down. The Big 10 could pick up the 4 California schools and Washington and add Colorado as a bridge.
The Big 12 picks up Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Brigham Young to the West. The pick up Louisville, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh and Syracuse.
Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Baylor, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Utah
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Let's look at the Big 10 at 20 and 24:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers (Syracuse)
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue (Illinois)
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern (Colorado & Utah)
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington (Oregon)
Now here are the problems for Oklahoma and Kansas and Texas.
1. West Virginia is wholly on an island with no hope for help.
2. Expansion to the West has little value.
But if Texas and Oklahoma wanted to keep their path to themselves this would be the result:
Central Florida, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.
Baylor, Colorado State, Houston, Texas, Texas Tech, Tulane
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State
I don't think that could be helpful to their finances. So how do we rectify this issue?
Arizona, Utah, Iowa State and Kansas move to the Big 10 to take them to 28 (4 division of 7 each). Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State join the SEC to take it to 28.
Big 10:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
Arizona, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
That's 25 AAU schools, 2 former AAU schools (Nebraska & Syracuse) and Notre Dame.
SEC:
Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, West Virginia
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Now assuming that Oregon State and Washington State can't keep up, and that Arizona State is not AAU, you have those 3 joining the Mountain West. Remember no damages because the GOR expired in the PAC. Baylor and T.C.U. are free to head to the AAC or form an all privates league which might include the 3 service academies and Brigham Young. Boston College and Wake Forest drop football and join Connecticut in the Big East.