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Brannen's recruiting
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CallMeSlim Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-19-2020 09:34 AM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  
(04-18-2020 11:32 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  247 team rankings from their web page for the AAC years...

26 2013
31 2014
43 2020
44 2019
53 2015
58 2017
61 2018
63 2016

Caveating the list, this is another reason why the size of classes, especially in hoops, drastically skews a team's ranking. Based solely on team ranking, the 2016 class could be considered UC's "worst" during the AAC years but that was a class that contained Cumberland and Brooks, a high-four star and high-three star player respectively with an average rating of .9235 (UC's highest average signee rating during that time frame). However, because there were only two signees, 247's team rankings system ranks it lower than the other classes.

Here's the ranking of classes by avg recruit rating:

2016: .9235
2019: .9157
2015: .9041
2014: .9012
2013: .8928
2020: .8857
2018: .8850
2017: .8655

I can't speak for everyone else but an issue I had with Mick's recruiting was that, while he showed he could bring in talented recruits during UC's time in the AAC, those last two full classes (2017 and 2018) had the worst talent since joining the new conference and this was a period when the program was transitioning to a fully renovated arena, so you could make the argument that this shouldn't have been holding him back from selling the program to recruits.


Mason's rating really tanked the average. The top 3 for this class have an average .9067. The highest on your list was because Cumberland was a .9782. Brooks was a .8687. If that class had more than 2 players the average would have dropped. This class has 3 guys .8911 or better. Then DeJulius was a .9572 and Ivanauskas was a .9032.


If we can continue to get the top 3 guys be over .90 as an average I'm going to take it all day.
 
04-19-2020 10:29 AM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Brannen's recruiting
^^^^
I mean, you can spin the numbers somewhat to make different arguments. I don't think your overall number of recruits should be counted against you just because you didn't sign a 5 or high 4 star rated guy. Getting a group of recruits that fit your system and give you depth is not a bad thing. The overall rankings show that Brannen has done a solid job in the short time he's been here.
 
04-19-2020 11:42 AM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Brannen's recruiting
To regularly compete for championships, you need top talent, there is no question about it. But up to this point, I think Brannen has done a tremendous job constructing a roster capable of making the NCAA tournament while still building for the future. Basketball, more than football, is all about building relationships early because the AAU system identifies top talent much earlier. Brannen only has one year of marketing his brand of basketball and has been playing catch up to high-level recruits. We can get to that point of having regular top 25 classes but we as fans need to be realistic. The AAC and being an Under Armour school will always be a thorn in our side for basketball recruiting and Brannen needs time to prove that he can develop players to the next level before he can compete with the top tier P5 programs for these kids.

With that said, we are making some great inroads with a few top 100 prospects in 2021 so I think we are getting there. We're not held back by our brand of basketball anymore.
 
04-19-2020 12:03 PM
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Banter Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Brannen's recruiting
I don't follow or understand basketball recruiting as well as football, but did the pandemic impact a spring/summer AAU cycle? I know some people believed that some of our players, specifically the twins would improve in the 247 rankings, but was not sure if that was all impacted by COVID.
 
04-19-2020 02:15 PM
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cinbinsportsfan Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-19-2020 10:29 AM)CallMeSlim Wrote:  Mason's rating really tanked the average. The top 3 for this class have an average .9067. The highest on your list was because Cumberland was a .9782. Brooks was a .8687. If that class had more than 2 players the average would have dropped. This class has 3 guys .8911 or better. Then DeJulius was a .9572 and Ivanauskas was a .9032.


If we can continue to get the top 3 guys be over .90 as an average I'm going to take it all day.

That's basically my point; that the raw rankings heavily weight size of class over quality of recruit. There's not necessarily anything wrong with it but give me a class with just Cumberland and Brooks (63rd) over whatever the hell was going on with the 4-player 2018 class (61st).

The ideal is a mix of solid-sized classes with top-to-bottom quality prospects so not only the "starters" are talented players but their "backups" aren't massive projects with huge holes in their game. Brannen's doing just that.
 
04-19-2020 07:58 PM
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cinbinsportsfan Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-19-2020 11:42 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  ^^^^
I mean, you can spin the numbers somewhat to make different arguments. I don't think your overall number of recruits should be counted against you just because you didn't sign a 5 or high 4 star rated guy. Getting a group of recruits that fit your system and give you depth is not a bad thing. The overall rankings show that Brannen has done a solid job in the short time he's been here.

I'm just reemphasizing the point that class size and the average rating of individual recruits are both important. It's all about balance. You need to consistently bring in 2-3 players ever year who are top 200/150 recruits (or thereabouts) so the roster is consistently filled and back-filled with talent at every position.
 
04-19-2020 08:16 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-19-2020 08:16 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  
(04-19-2020 11:42 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  ^^^^
I mean, you can spin the numbers somewhat to make different arguments. I don't think your overall number of recruits should be counted against you just because you didn't sign a 5 or high 4 star rated guy. Getting a group of recruits that fit your system and give you depth is not a bad thing. The overall rankings show that Brannen has done a solid job in the short time he's been here.

I'm just reemphasizing the point that class size and the average rating of individual recruits are both important. It's all about balance. You need to consistently bring in 2-3 players ever year who are top 200/150 recruits (or thereabouts) so the roster is consistently filled and back-filled with talent at every position.

I'm not in disagreement. My point in showing the overall rankings is to give props to CJB in his short tenure here. John had to hit the ground running when he got the late start during Year 1 and he deserves some credit IMO. Throw in his ability to get some solid transfer guys and it's been a good haul thus far. Time will tell but I believe he'll land some "Jarron Cumberlands" as the program transitions during his time at the helm.
 
04-19-2020 08:34 PM
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cinbinsportsfan Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-19-2020 08:34 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'm not in disagreement. My point in showing the overall rankings is to give props to CJB in his short tenure here. John had to hit the ground running when he got the late start during Year 1 and he deserves some credit IMO. Throw in his ability to get some solid transfer guys and it's been a good haul thus far. Time will tell but I believe he'll land some "Jarron Cumberlands" as the program transitions during his time at the helm.

Agreed, that's the most impressive thing for me as well; he's not only reinvigorated the roster with talent but he's done it in just about one year on the job.
 
04-20-2020 07:31 AM
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Post: #49
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-20-2020 07:31 AM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  
(04-19-2020 08:34 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'm not in disagreement. My point in showing the overall rankings is to give props to CJB in his short tenure here. John had to hit the ground running when he got the late start during Year 1 and he deserves some credit IMO. Throw in his ability to get some solid transfer guys and it's been a good haul thus far. Time will tell but I believe he'll land some "Jarron Cumberlands" as the program transitions during his time at the helm.

Agreed, that's the most impressive thing for me as well; he's not only reinvigorated the roster with talent but he's done it in just about one year on the job.

yeah but it's not a top 20 twenty class and therefore settling for mediocrity
 
04-20-2020 08:30 AM
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blackcattitude Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-16-2020 10:16 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(04-16-2020 08:56 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Personally, I'm a bit more focused on whether this team is ready to beat the field in the NCAA tournament. I'd argue the style is better suited for that, though we will need to wait and see.

I see people say stuff like this all the time, but I don't understand what it means exactly. Could you elaborate, preferably with data?

I think the tournament is more of a random effect generator than a true determinant of who the best team is. Regular season performance is a far better indicator of coaching acumen.
Brannen is a better coach than I think. That being said, the team made its run when they threw Brannen's offense out the window, slowed the pace to glacial and went full Bel Air Academy.
 
04-20-2020 07:55 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Brannen's recruiting
Comments from Coach on signings...


 
04-21-2020 06:48 PM
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dsquare Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Brannen's recruiting
The most successful hires in their debut seasons in 2019-20, per
@MattNorlander
:

1. Mark Pope, BYU
2. Casey Alexander, Belmont
3. Juwan Howard, Michigan
4. John Brannen, Cincinnati
5. Darrin Horn, NKU
 
04-22-2020 10:58 AM
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dsquare Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-21-2020 06:48 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Comments from Coach on signings...



He's got that Abe Lincoln vibe. LOL
 
04-22-2020 10:58 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-22-2020 10:58 AM)dsquare Wrote:  The most successful hires in their debut seasons in 2019-20, per
@MattNorlander
:

1. Mark Pope, BYU
2. Casey Alexander, Belmont
3. Juwan Howard, Michigan
4. John Brannen, Cincinnati
5. Darrin Horn, NKU

I'm glad NKU was able to find a suitable replacement. Darrin Horn did really well at Western Kentucky, so I think he'll find success at NKU as well. South Carolina is a tough place to win, so I don't put too much fault on him for not getting the job done there. I root for NKU ever since they helped us out with the arena situation.
 
(This post was last modified: 04-22-2020 12:22 PM by robertfoshizzle.)
04-22-2020 12:21 PM
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Post: #55
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-20-2020 07:55 PM)blackcattitude Wrote:  
(04-16-2020 10:16 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(04-16-2020 08:56 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Personally, I'm a bit more focused on whether this team is ready to beat the field in the NCAA tournament. I'd argue the style is better suited for that, though we will need to wait and see.

I see people say stuff like this all the time, but I don't understand what it means exactly. Could you elaborate, preferably with data?

I think the tournament is more of a random effect generator than a true determinant of who the best team is. Regular season performance is a far better indicator of coaching acumen.
Brannen is a better coach than I think. That being said, the team made its run when they threw Brannen's offense out the window, slowed the pace to glacial and went full Bel Air Academy.

I was curious so I had to check this out via Kenpom's Pace stat. I assume by run you mean about mid-January on when we went 10-3 to finish the season (frankly you could start Jan. 1 as well since we went 14-5).

Pre-run
Win pace avg: 69.4
Loss pace avg: 70.7

During run (ECU on Jan. 19 on)
Win pace avg: 68.2
Loss pace avg: 65.3

We did indeed play a little bit slower during the streak, but we also lost two of our slowest games during that stretch (64 pace @UConn, 62 pace @Houston) which really drags down the average pace of losing games since the sample size is so small.

The frustrating thing about stepping back and looking at all the losses is that there isn't really a single factor that stands out even during each individual game from a statistical standpoint. This team was just wildly inconsistent in how they lost games and that's, in my opinion, to be expected when you're implementing a new system.
 
04-22-2020 02:50 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-22-2020 02:50 PM)Yawny Wrote:  
(04-20-2020 07:55 PM)blackcattitude Wrote:  
(04-16-2020 10:16 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(04-16-2020 08:56 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Personally, I'm a bit more focused on whether this team is ready to beat the field in the NCAA tournament. I'd argue the style is better suited for that, though we will need to wait and see.

I see people say stuff like this all the time, but I don't understand what it means exactly. Could you elaborate, preferably with data?

I think the tournament is more of a random effect generator than a true determinant of who the best team is. Regular season performance is a far better indicator of coaching acumen.
Brannen is a better coach than I think. That being said, the team made its run when they threw Brannen's offense out the window, slowed the pace to glacial and went full Bel Air Academy.

I was curious so I had to check this out via Kenpom's Pace stat. I assume by run you mean about mid-January on when we went 10-3 to finish the season (frankly you could start Jan. 1 as well since we went 14-5).

Pre-run
Win pace avg: 69.4
Loss pace avg: 70.7

During run (ECU on Jan. 19 on)
Win pace avg: 68.2
Loss pace avg: 65.3

We did indeed play a little bit slower during the streak, but we also lost two of our slowest games during that stretch (64 pace @UConn, 62 pace @Houston) which really drags down the average pace of losing games since the sample size is so small.

The frustrating thing about stepping back and looking at all the losses is that there isn't really a single factor that stands out even during each individual game from a statistical standpoint. This team was just wildly inconsistent in how they lost games and that's, in my opinion, to be expected when you're implementing a new system.

I remember Houston killing us on the glass and punching us in the face.

The UCONN game could have went either way.
 
04-22-2020 10:06 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Brannen's recruiting
I think this team took off when the coach finally recognized what would work best for this particular team... which is what a coach is supposed to do, I think.

I credit Brannen for not insisting on ramming that square peg through a round hole all season just because it was his system. It took a while, but when he finally relented and let Cumberland run the show we were good.

Getting back to the original topic, he's going to have to address rebounding because it is true, Houston basically just played volley ball on the boards until they finally made a shot.

... he also needs to find out a way to make guys better at shooting those shots from 15 feet away when no one is guarding you, because missing those costs us more than one game last year.
 
04-23-2020 07:24 AM
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Post: #58
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-22-2020 10:58 AM)dsquare Wrote:  The most successful hires in their debut seasons in 2019-20, per
@MattNorlander
:

1. Mark Pope, BYU
2. Casey Alexander, Belmont
3. Juwan Howard, Michigan
4. John Brannen, Cincinnati
5. Darrin Horn, NKU

Don't forget #6 - you're going to piss people off! 05-stirthepot

I know this is an opinion piece but it's cool to see the affect 1 hire (Cronin to Bruins) had on 3 programs and how all 3 seem to have landed on solid ground.
 
04-23-2020 08:40 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-23-2020 08:40 AM)bearcatdp Wrote:  
(04-22-2020 10:58 AM)dsquare Wrote:  The most successful hires in their debut seasons in 2019-20, per
@MattNorlander
:

1. Mark Pope, BYU
2. Casey Alexander, Belmont
3. Juwan Howard, Michigan
4. John Brannen, Cincinnati
5. Darrin Horn, NKU

Don't forget #6 - you're going to piss people off! 05-stirthepot

I know this is an opinion piece but it's cool to see the affect 1 hire (Cronin to Bruins) had on 3 programs and how all 3 seem to have landed on solid ground.

Agreed. I wish all 3 the best. Mick leaving was the best outcome for both parties in my opinion, and NKU landed on their feet as well.
 
04-23-2020 10:32 AM
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Post: #60
RE: Brannen's recruiting
(04-23-2020 07:24 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I think this team took off when the coach finally recognized what would work best for this particular team... which is what a coach is supposed to do, I think.

I credit Brannen for not insisting on ramming that square peg through a round hole all season just because it was his system. It took a while, but when he finally relented and let Cumberland run the show we were good.


Getting back to the original topic, he's going to have to address rebounding because it is true, Houston basically just played volley ball on the boards until they finally made a shot.

... he also needs to find out a way to make guys better at shooting those shots from 15 feet away when no one is guarding you, because missing those costs us more than one game last year.


Agree, but I'm also excited to see what Brannen-ball looks like with his own recruits. We saw bits and pieces of it last year, and you could see the potential.
 
04-23-2020 11:36 AM
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