Please weigh in.

CFP needs a Cinderella team from a G5 to be in it to bring more viewers to tuned in.

I think the Pac 12, with lower revenues, and the Big XII, looking for higher revenues, will merge in order to compete with the Big 10 and SEC. Thus we will have a P4 situation.

I don't think anything happens this time around with the P5, except maybe the Big 12 adds two, but probably not even that. Mid-2030s, though, will be about time in the revolution of media and higher education for some major realignment.

I think expansion to 8 in the CFP is highly likely when this contract comes up and probably 50/50 that it happens after 3 more years (year 10 of the 12 year contract).

I voted Playoff. But SEC/B1G are almost 100% likely to weaken the B12. There is just no way Oklahoma can pass up the money, and no way one of those two conferences doesn't accept them. If Texas is reluctant to go with them, Kansas will.

I don't see any P12-B12 agreement. It's a time zone problem. More likely B12 works with ACC and/or SEC to improve OOC.

This is more likely to happen than that. That's why it's called "this."

I think the SEC/B1G/ACC pick apart the B12 making a P4 and the Playoff expands to 8. Both are likely to happen so I chose the one which will happen first and that's B12 picked apart in 2025.

(04-11-2020 10:58 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  I think the Pac 12, with lower revenues, and the Big XII, looking for higher revenues, will merge in order to compete with the Big 10 and SEC. Thus we will have a P4 situation.

What's in it for Texas? In 2018-2019, UT had about $216 million in athletic revenue. They are doing great financially and they have their own network. The Big 12 has been very good to them. What's in it for OU? They had about $160 million in athletic revenue in 2018-2019. They have won five straight Big 12 conference football championships. That would not happen in another power conference.

To the Pac-12, a merger means "we would take UT and OU." Without UT, the whole thing goes nowhere. I just can't see why UT would want to leave the Big 12. Life is good for them. For the Pac-12, they will fix their revenue, expense and network issues eventually and remain a western regional conference. They don't need to merge with the Big 12 to solve their issues. So, I don't see a P4 but I could eventually see an expanded playoff which would include the five P5 champions.

(04-11-2020 04:26 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(04-11-2020 10:58 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  I think the Pac 12, with lower revenues, and the Big XII, looking for higher revenues, will merge in order to compete with the Big 10 and SEC. Thus we will have a P4 situation.

What's in it for Texas? In 2018-2019, UT had about $216 million in athletic revenue. They are doing great financially and they have their own network. The Big 12 has been very good to them. What's in it for OU? They had about $160 million in athletic revenue in 2018-2019. They have won five straight Big 12 conference football championships. That would not happen in another power conference.

To the Pac-12, a merger means "we would take UT and OU." Without UT, the whole thing goes nowhere. I just can't see why UT would want to leave the Big 12. Life is good for them. For the Pac-12, they will fix their revenue, expense and network issues eventually and remain a western regional conference. They don't need to merge with the Big 12 to solve their issues. So, I don't see a P4 but I could eventually see an expanded playoff which would include the five P5 champions.

ESPN and/or FOX tells UT/UO they'll make more money in the Pac-12 than in the Big 12. If I'm ESPN, I'd rather take the money I'm paying both conferences and give it all to the Pac-12 if they take Texas and Oklahoma. Then I don't have to pay the Big 12 at all and not only am I paying the same amount but I'm getting Texas and Oklahoma playing California schools and Oregon rather than Texas and Oklahoma playing the Little Eight. I agree Texas/Oklahoma don't want to leave, it's the networks' job to make it worthwhile for them to leave or they won't.

Do the "chimpanzees" of the BIG XII move the needle for the MWC?

I don’t see the SEC adding anyone else unless they kick out Vanderbilt. At some point the rule of diminishing returns factors in. The pie may get a little bigger but will everyone get a larger slice?

The big 12 may add, but I am not sure that anyone who meets their criteria will accept the financial structure.

Had not the coronavirus pandemic occurred, I could have seen the SEC/Big Ten choice. But what the coronavirus pandemic did was put the brakes on everything, and allowed everyone to look at their options. If the Big Ten poached Oklahoma, they are hurting themselves in that they lose an ally vs the SEC. The SEC could go for another Big 12 school, but do they really want to be stuck with them forever when more options could open up down the road with the ACC's GOR expiring. I'm not saying that the SEC would be opposed to getting a Big 12 school, but they might want at least want one ACC school too. Waiting allows for that to happen possibly.

Also, IMO, ESPN's hand has been weakened.

The CFP needs to expand sooner. The divide that the 4 team format has created wasn’t a P5/G5 divide it was 4-8 programs/everyone else divide. P5 programs are finally realizing that and want to change it. Idk if they can afford to wait for the contract to be up though, they’re falling further and further behind every year.

Neither will happen anytime soon.