(04-15-2020 11:22 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: The argument that a "top 8" ranking is somehow more rational and "fair" than a system with P5 auto-bids has never made sense to me. A bunch of old guys sitting in a conference room in Dallas determining the participants in the College Football Playoff as opposed to objective on-the-field accomplishments simply isn't more rational. These people are playing ON-THE-FIELD GAMES WITH OBJECTIVE WINS AND LOSSES. The need for the equivalent of Russian figure skating judges to determine 100% of the playoff field is unnecessary outside of the need to be wedded to outdated traditions.
The reason i support S8 is because, despite the obvious dangers of subjective decision making, in practice, which is what counts, the decision makers make ... really good decisions. They've done that extremely well with the CFP. Basically, the 24 teams that they have selected over 6 years are the 24 teams that just about everyone would have selected.
In contrast, the ON THE FIELD argument for 5-1-2 doesn't resonate, because as explained, conference champs are produced by very flawed methods. First, a good 1/3 of all games played ON THE FIELD, the OOC games, don't count. They are ignored for producing conference champs. The NFL doesn't do that. But college has to. We've gone over this before. Other flaws include no home and home, no playing all the teams in your conference. All kinds of flaws. That basically means a conference champ has no moral/valid ON THE FIELD claim to a bid.
And what really baffles me is the "fan appeal" argument. This is based on the notion that there is a Great Untapped NFL-Like Reservoir Of Fan Interest that could be unlocked if late in the season all the 6-3 Mississippi State-type teams across the land are somehow still alive for their conference division title, and hence still alive for the SEC title, and thus for the National Title under a 5-1-2 system.
But there's no evidence for that. College football is extremely popular, significantly more popular than college basketball (itself very popular), even though in college football probably half the teams are eliminated from national title contention two weeks into the season, and about 90% are by the first of October, whereas in basketball, 99% of all teams are technically alive for the national title right up until a few days before Selection Sunday.
Also relevant in a fan-interest sense is the kinds of matchups that systems would produce. Judging by the CFP, I think S8 is better, sspecially compared to what 5-1-2 would produce. Let's take one year for example, 2015. Using the CFP results, Straight 8 would get us:
Alabama (SEC champ)
Clemson (ACC champ)
Michigan State (B1G champ)
Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
Iowa (B1G runnerup)
Stanford (PAC champ)
Ohio State (B1G runner up)
Notre Dame (10-2 Indy)
Here's what 5-1-2 produces:
Alabama
Clemson
Michigan State
Oklahoma
Stanford
Iowa
Ohio State
Houston
What's the only difference? Not P5 champs, they all get in both ways. Not top runner-ups, the same two, both from the B1G, get in as well. The only difference is that Notre Dame makes it under S8, whereas under 5-1-2 #18 Houston gets in. Does anyone really want Houston in the playoffs instead of Notre Dame? Nobody wants that. Everyone would rather see a Notre Dame vs Alabama quarterfinal than Alabama vs Houston.
Or look at 2016. That year, these teams all get in under both systems:
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Oklahoma
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan
The difference? Instead of #8 USC, we get #15 Western Michigan. Does anyone want to see that? Nobody does. Everyone would rather see Alabama vs USC than Alabama vs Western Michigan.
Basically, the difference between 5-1-2 and S8 isn't in P5 conference champs - in S8 you almost always get all the conference champs in. It's that you are substituting a #17 Memphis for a #8 Wisconsin, as in this past year.
Nobody but the fans of those G5 schools wants to see that. TV ratings would be way down for that game.
All of that said, while I am against P5 champ auto-bids in principle, a system with that requirement would produce basically the same playoffs as the S8 - P5 champs get in all the time under P5 autobids and about 97% of the time under S8. So a 5-3 system would basically be identical to S8. It's just conceptually worse, and also has negative legal ramifications that S8 doesn't have.