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Conference Descrambler
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-08-2020 05:40 PM)olddawg Wrote:  
(04-08-2020 05:21 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Partial data pull on JMU: https://csnbbs.com/thread-897646-post-16...id16770521

Other than those who voted JMU the #1 team they'd like to see in a reorganized conference, it doesn't look like we're garnering any support elsewhere. Spots 2-9 do not even list us.

So we have 24%-all 1st choice votes and nothing else. Wonder what % of voters were JMU fans? ODU on the other hand, had 27% as the 1st choice but had a grand total of 89% of voters wanting them somewhere in their Top 10 choices.

That was only votes BY JMU fans. As in ... that's your voting preferences listed.
04-08-2020 05:42 PM
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JMaddy Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-08-2020 11:44 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(04-08-2020 11:32 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  Here was my top 9 for a 10 team league:
App St
Georgia Southern
ODU
Coastal Carolina
Marshall
Charlotte
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Liberty

I'd rather have 12 teams and add:
Georgia State
Troy


10 is the magic number to stage a FB title game. So the question becomes, "Would Georgia State and Troy lead to more revenue than they would suck down if added thereafter?"

The answer is probably no, regardless of who the final 2 are that get you to 12. The Big 12 and AAC have run the numbers and concluded it ends in a bigger payday to be as small as possible while still getting a FB title game. In fact, if the playoff expands to 8 the most advantageous format for a G5 would be a 10 team conference title game. It assures your #1 plays your #2 which doesn't necessarily happen in title games with divisions. Given that it seems likely that expansion to an 8 team playoff will come with a highest ranked G5 autobid, you very seriously want to consider 10 teams not only for your revenue but your FB playoff chances.
IDK Troy has a good program and has as good a shot as any team being a NY6 bowl so if that's still on the table that would bring in a lot of cash dollars. Georgia State is in for recruiting trips to Atlanta and a travel partner for Georgia Southern.
04-08-2020 05:59 PM
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AssyrianDuke Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Conference Descrambler
It will be interesting to see where JMU ends up on other people's lists. I have a feeling some ODU and maybe an App State fan or two might have us on the list. I'm hopeful a regional conference will happen as more schools and their leaders see how untenable the current landscape is.
04-08-2020 06:00 PM
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JMaddy Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-08-2020 05:42 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(04-08-2020 05:40 PM)olddawg Wrote:  
(04-08-2020 05:21 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Partial data pull on JMU: https://csnbbs.com/thread-897646-post-16...id16770521

Other than those who voted JMU the #1 team they'd like to see in a reorganized conference, it doesn't look like we're garnering any support elsewhere. Spots 2-9 do not even list us.

So we have 24%-all 1st choice votes and nothing else. Wonder what % of voters were JMU fans? ODU on the other hand, had 27% as the 1st choice but had a grand total of 89% of voters wanting them somewhere in their Top 10 choices.

That was only votes BY JMU fans. As in ... that's your voting preferences listed.
Hence the DERP! for people who voted for JMU #1 when the question #10 was what's your team. You probably should have put 'who is your team' as question #1 and let people fill out the other 9 after. I also would have put the teams on the Y Axis but that's just me.
04-08-2020 06:12 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Conference Descrambler
SLOW day at work... so I worked up three versions of this...only a handful of schools changing hands each time.

North, South, West
North, Central, South (stretches from NM to FL in South, splits some TX schools, splits Lafayette from others...fatal flaw)
East Coast, Central, West...(kinda cool, but removes App or Marshall; splits the GA schools...fatal flaw)

Here was the best mix, adding in UCONN, that preserved some existing rivalries.

Unfortunately, I cannot upload the image...but it's a pretty tight set of conferences.

NORTH
Independent: UCONN
Independent: Liberty
FCS: James Madison
C-USA: UNC Charlotte
C-USA: Marshall
C-USA: Middle Tennessee
C-USA: Old Dominion
C-USA: Western Kentucky
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina

SOUTH
SOUTH
C-USA: UAB
C-USA: Florida Atlantic
C-USA: Florida International
C-USA: Southern Miss
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
Sun Belt: Arkansas - Little Rock
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern
Sun Belt: Georgia State
Sun Belt: South Alabama
Sun Belt: Troy

WEST
Independent: NMSU
C-USA: Louisina Tech
C-USA: North Texas
C-USA: Rice
C-USA: UTEP
C-USA: UTSA
Sun Belt: Louisiana - Lafayette
Sun Belt: Louisiana - Monroe
Sun Belt: Texas - Arlington
Sun Belt: Texas State
(This post was last modified: 04-08-2020 06:23 PM by bcp_jmu.)
04-08-2020 06:15 PM
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JMaddy Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-08-2020 06:15 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  SLOW day at work... so I worked up three versions of this...only a handful of schools changing hands each time.

North, South, West
North, Central, South (stretches from NM to FL in South...fatal flaw)
East Coast, Central, West...(kinda cool, but removes App or Marshall...fatal flaw)

Here was the best mix, adding in UCONN, that preserved some existing rivalries.

Unfortunately, I cannot upload the image...but it's a pretty tight set of conferences.

NORTH
Independent: UCONN
Independent: Liberty
FCS: James Madison
C-USA: UNC Charlotte
C-USA: Marshall
C-USA: Middle Tennessee
C-USA: Old Dominion
C-USA: Western Kentucky
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina

SOUTH
SOUTH
C-USA: UAB
C-USA: Florida Atlantic
C-USA: Florida International
C-USA: Southern Miss
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
Sun Belt: Arkansas - Little Rock
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern
Sun Belt: Georgia State
Sun Belt: South Alabama
Sun Belt: Troy

WEST
Independent: NMSU
C-USA: Louisina Tech
C-USA: North Texas
C-USA: Rice
C-USA: UTEP
C-USA: UTSA
Sun Belt: Louisiana - Lafayette
Sun Belt: Louisiana - Monroe
Sun Belt: Texas - Arlington
Sun Belt: Texas State
swap UCONN with Delaware and you're in business. I don't want UCONN without basketball, and there is no way UCONN brings their basketball teams to that conference. Like 0.00%.
04-08-2020 06:22 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Conference Descrambler
Oh yes...hadn't thought of DE... that would make it much better (unless a Temple team wanted in..HA)
04-08-2020 08:02 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Conference Descrambler
There is now live updating results specific to JMU on the google doc linked towards the end of the results thread.
04-08-2020 09:04 PM
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JMaddy Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-08-2020 09:04 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  There is now live updating results specific to JMU on the google doc linked towards the end of the results thread.

The calculations for the ranked order of teams are wrong in Column G of the JMU tab on your spreadsheet.
04-09-2020 06:53 AM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-09-2020 06:53 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  
(04-08-2020 09:04 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  There is now live updating results specific to JMU on the google doc linked towards the end of the results thread.

The calculations for the ranked order of teams are wrong in Column G of the JMU tab on your spreadsheet.
Correct it is summing several Fields and as noted it will get inaccurate if additional submissions come in. Basically somebody voted for someone that hadn't gotten a vote yet in a round and slid everybody down breaking the math.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app
04-09-2020 07:02 AM
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JMaddy Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-09-2020 07:02 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(04-09-2020 06:53 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  
(04-08-2020 09:04 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  There is now live updating results specific to JMU on the google doc linked towards the end of the results thread.

The calculations for the ranked order of teams are wrong in Column G of the JMU tab on your spreadsheet.
Correct it is summing several Fields and as noted it will get inaccurate if additional submissions come in. Basically somebody voted for someone that hadn't gotten a vote yet in a round and slid everybody down breaking the math.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app
Got it, thanks.
04-09-2020 07:18 AM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Conference Descrambler
The aggregate data is now much more resilient to breakage from continued voting: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1..._PbC4LH4I/
04-09-2020 09:01 AM
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mad_dog97 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Conference Descrambler
I needed a mental break, so took a few minutes to visualize the data to date. Here are some interesting views:

Who is interested in this topic? Votes by School
[Image: kRMXFnH.png]

How does that breakdown by Conference
[Image: uhgEdtV.png]

Who are JMU fans picking as their first preference
[Image: hpTSilg.png]

What's the average ranking for JMU fans of the following selected schools (shorter bar means higher rank)
[Image: D8EPPdl.png]

Where do fans of other schools rank JMU ?
How to read this chart:
- if no bar, then we haven't been ranked by that school's fans
- if there is a bar, then it shows the average position that JMU was ranked by that school's fans.
- The number at the end of the bar shows the total number of entries for that school
- Shorter bar means those fans are ranking JMU as a more preferred choice
[Image: VemkEtg.png]




[EDIT: You were using IMGUR page URLs and not image URLs, fixed that for you. -GTS]
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2020 10:50 AM by mad_dog97.)
04-09-2020 10:24 AM
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olddawg Online
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Post: #34
RE: Conference Descrambler
I'm just waiting for the Executive Summary
04-09-2020 10:27 AM
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mad_dog97 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Conference Descrambler
Quote:[EDIT: You were using IMGUR page URLs and not image URLs, fixed that for you. -GTS]

Thanks GTS!
04-09-2020 10:30 AM
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Purplehazed Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Conference Descrambler
We need another media org. to create more smoke around the logic about a Geo5 conference.

Whomever trolls this board from the Daily News Record, hint-hint. Richmond Times would be great.
04-09-2020 02:10 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-09-2020 02:10 PM)Purplehazed Wrote:  We need another media org. to create more smoke around the logic about a Geo5 conference.

Whomever trolls this board from the Daily News Record, hint-hint. Richmond Times would be great.


If you want to get to David Teel you must first go through John Swofford. It's a bit of a human centipede situation.
04-09-2020 02:31 PM
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2Buck Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Conference Descrambler
(04-09-2020 10:24 AM)mad_dog97 Wrote:  I needed a mental break, so took a few minutes to visualize the data to date. Here are some interesting views:

Who is interested in this topic? Votes by School
[Image: kRMXFnH.png]

No wonder my Jiffy Lube service was so slow, look at all the Marshall submissions!
04-09-2020 04:31 PM
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olddawg Online
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Post: #39
RE: Conference Descrambler
Not sure I get the Marshall love for FAU and indifference for FIU. To me, they're both the same. ESPN has historically lumped them together when publishing their bottom 10 (and still makes fun of their initials and interchangeability).

They are 60 miles apart (and 1000 miles from Huntington). Their rolling 5 year average attendance from 2014-2018 had them at 116 & 119th out of 130 schools. No one there cares. Sure, Lane Kiffin had some success 2 of the last 3 seasons. But the only AAC or higher team FAU has defeated from 2017-2019 was SMU last year.
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2020 08:47 PM by olddawg.)
04-09-2020 06:17 PM
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NJDuke97 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Conference Descrambler
Imo you can go one of two ways with this- one where JMU is part of a southern division and one where JMU is part of a northern division. I went with a footprint that has JMU in the south. I think the norther man division with Buffalo and Army probably gives the league some more football creditability and makes it easier for Marshall to sell despite the 3 Fcs move ups (JMU Delaware and Stonybrook). A conference where Umass can play UConn in football has some appeal for them so they are willing to make the all sports move. Marshall being in the conference with JMU is enough for App state to sell to their fan base. 10
Team conference in all sports and for Football you have the conference championship in DC.


North
Umass
UConn (Football only)
Buffalo
Army (Football only)
Stony Brook
Delaware



South
JMU
ODU
App State
Marshall
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2020 09:12 PM by NJDuke97.)
04-09-2020 08:44 PM
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