First, may I note that the topic title is itself BS, since if this is all speculation by the OP, then they are
NOT merely "the messenger" ... they are the author of the message.
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(04-10-2020 06:53 AM)HTOWN_HERD Wrote: The “rumor” that got all this started seems to think that people inside Marshall’s administration believes that CUSA is or will be broke due to canceling the basketball tournament and IF football season is shortened or canceled. You seem a lot more educated on this subject than me but I believe that the original poster from that board is pretty credible although I don’t know them personally.
IMO, it seems like once that study from ODU was published it gave everyone who hasn’t been happy and the ones that realized they made a mistake by joining a far flung league an opportunity to say, now is the time for change. What that change is remains to be seen, but I firmly believe that whether it’s Marshall back to the MAC or the CUSA East breakaway that something WILL happen from this financial crisis stemming from Covid-19.
So that sounds like this entire thread is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of what a "financial crisis" entails. A financial crisis means the CUSA cannot pay everything they owe and everything they've promised to pay.
In the most extreme case, it may mean they have to go into Chapter 11 and restructure their debts, and some future NCAA Tourney and CFP revenue gets committed to paying for that restructure instead of getting distributed to the schools.
It doesn't mean the CUSA goes belly-up (Chapter 14 bankruptcy)
But even if the schools have a free pass on leaving ... do that mean they would want to leave? A lot of "breakaway" theories assume that we are still under the same rules and conditions as when the MWC formed after the famous airport meeting. We are not. To save the WAC, which would have lost it's autobid status and with it would have been unable to rebuild, the NCAA swapped continuity from a group of schools playing together to a conference having run a competition for consecutive years.
So a "Breakaway" loses the NCAA autobid for eight years, loses access to the Access Bowl race, loses $1m per school from the CFP payout and another couple of hundred thousand per school from the rest of the CFP distribution. And of course walks away from all NCAA tourney units they may have earned for the conference they are leaving.