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OT: COVID Check-In
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #261
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 04:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  When did new data change the consensus on what to do? That's not something that ever happened.

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There's a link in a previous post from one immunologist. A poster here wrongly dismissed it as a right-wing conspiracy theory, but the article itself is all about science, not politics.

My brother is a second. He's keeping quiet because he knows that it's politically charged and he doesn't have tenure. He was (like me) originally 100% in favor of the stay-at-home orders. But he tells me the new data is light years more reliable than the old (mostly Chinese) data. And it paints a very different picture.

Admittedly, it's hard to find traditional news sources on this, because traditional news sources love a good story about mass deaths. (Just like it was hard to find a traditional news source opposing the Iraq war in 2003 or telling us not to worry about Ebola or SARS)

Here's a few though:

https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/ke...ould-open/

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/14...venting-it


Here's a month-old article from the New Yorker that sums it up quite nicely. It's 30 days old, which is forever ago in the Coronaworld.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/w...oronavirus

Quote:(reporter's question): When we talked a month ago, the hope was that we’d put social-distancing measures in place, we’d flatten the curve, and then, hopefully, things would be more manageable. It seems like if things continue, we may get to that place. But it also seems like opening up the economy or ending social-distancing measures is going to bring the disease back. Do you have any kind of optimism that we’ve learned something in the past month that will help prevent that fate?

(answer) I think a month ago we were still thinking that maybe we’d gotten on top of this early enough that more moderate social-distancing measures could really flatten out the curve. I think what became clear around the time we talked is that things had gotten a little bit out of control and it was necessary to have more extreme social-distancing measures and not so much flatten the curve as slam it down. And so that’s where we started getting all of these stay-at-home orders and things like that. But the impact of those orders is that you short-circuit the transmission of the disease before there’s a chance for significant immunity to grow in the population. So, like you said, if people start going back to business as usual, the population is still at least partially at risk for infection, and we could see a big second wave.

So I think the big focus now needs to be that there has to be a plan for the post-stay-at-home-order era, where we find something that allows the economy to open back up, allows people to by and large go about their daily lives, but still prevents widespread circulation of this virus and the overwhelming of our health-care systems. And right now I think the only reasonable strategy that we have, with the tools we have now, is a “test, trace, and isolate” type of strategy, where we do extensive testing for the virus, and, when we find positive people, we do contact-tracing and find their potentially infected contacts. And then we only have quarantine and isolation among those people.

Right now we’re essentially doing quarantine isolation in a very unfocussed manner across the entire population, sort of a blunt hammer approach. And if we could get that to be targeted exactly at those people who are potentially infected and could achieve similar levels of reductions in viral transmission by doing that, I think that would be ultimately the key to being able to go back to something that looks more like business as usual. They seem to have achieved something like this in South Korea, and hopefully we can do something like that here.

(reporter's question): So it comes back to testing, which is what it was a month ago.

(answer) Right. But we’ve made a lot of strides in testing since then. The challenges still exist, but we’ve ramped up testing in the U.S. to a huge extent, and I think that, provided that certain supplies like reagents for running the tests are available, or we can come up with alternatives, it should be possible to have one of these extensive testing programs.
 
05-16-2020 05:49 PM
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Ragpicker Offline
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Post: #262
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 01:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  
(05-16-2020 01:26 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  Getting on my first airplane since the quarantine this Wednesday. Headed to Florida to see Mom and spend some time at the beach.

I've been surprised at how many weird faces I've received when I mentioned air travel to friends and colleagues. People have even asked if I was going to quarantine myself for 14 days when I get back home......NO!

This article interviewing the former head of Epidemiology at The Rockefeller University's Center for Clinical and Translational Science captures my thoughts completely.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15...ole-thing/

No thank you! More right wing non-sense. I can't believe how many people listen to the conspiracy junk pushed by the right. Why did this become political?

Stay home, stay safe, and wait for a medical solution is much smarter than letting everyone make selfish choices that hurts society.

Stay afraid.

The epidemiologist is saying Trump, DeWine, etc screwed up. They did. But your hate and fear keeps you from opening your mind. You immediately thought it was right wing non-sense. Fear stops clear thinking.
 
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2020 06:29 PM by Ragpicker.)
05-16-2020 06:18 PM
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doss2 Offline
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Post: #263
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 01:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  
(05-16-2020 01:26 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  Getting on my first airplane since the quarantine this Wednesday. Headed to Florida to see Mom and spend some time at the beach.

I've been surprised at how many weird faces I've received when I mentioned air travel to friends and colleagues. People have even asked if I was going to quarantine myself for 14 days when I get back home......NO!

This article interviewing the former head of Epidemiology at The Rockefeller University's Center for Clinical and Translational Science captures my thoughts completely.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15...ole-thing/

No thank you! More right wing non-sense. I can't believe how many people listen to the conspiracy junk pushed by the right. Why did this become political?

Stay home, stay safe, and wait for a medical solution is much smarter than letting everyone make selfish choices that hurts society.

Nice comment. Just following left wing nonsense and send China Flu victims back to nursing homes to infect more.
 
05-16-2020 06:57 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #264
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
This board is a disaster right now.
 
05-16-2020 07:10 PM
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gerhard911 Offline
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Post: #265
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 07:10 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This board is a disaster right now.

This country is a disaster right now. No surprise this board has followed along.
 
05-16-2020 07:25 PM
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eroc Offline
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Post: #266
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  There's a link in a previous post from one immunologist. A poster here wrongly dismissed it as a right-wing conspiracy theory, but the article itself is all about science, not politics.

Anything funded by the Koch brothers runs the risk of being labelled as such. As it is when you read the interview, it sounds eerily similar to right-wing talking heads and other proponents of Re-opening the economy, like they are all operating off of the same talking points.

(05-16-2020 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/ke...ould-open/

There was a lot of criticism related to the sampling of the statistics/data that was provided, which iirc was limited to their urgent care facilities (i think they also had a math error that led to an error in their stats but i don't recall for sure). There was also no data or statistics for their claims related to secondary effects, just anecdotes and unsubstantiated claims. And like the Epidemiologist interviewed by Spiked, seemed to being going off of the same script. While you can argue that the data that was offered, when they offered data, may have some use, i think a stronger argument can be made for why it should not be the foundation for re-opening the state of CA.

(05-16-2020 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/14...venting-it

This was the most interesting article. The state of MN basically did the math and came to the conclusion that there was no significant difference in lives saved by expiring the stay at home order versus extending briefly (two weeks) or if they did a more significant extension (September) even as they acknowledge that maintaining a stay-at-home order through September is likely the safest option. it also offered a rather sobering reality, that the population will simply not suffer a stay at home order of that length as data has already shown that Minnesotans are increasingly violating the order. i am curious to see if the death toll will start to outpace the model's projections once the stay at home order is expired.

i was going to write that the one thing we can all agree on is that we need to expand testing significantly but given the nature of this board as it relates to COVID-19 i don't know if everyone will agree with that.
 
05-16-2020 08:50 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #267
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 07:10 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This board is a disaster right now.
I think we're just hitting our stride

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05-16-2020 09:03 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #268
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
There's so much conflicting and misleading info going around now that I think it's very hard to come up with absolutes. I posted in another thread about the need to take a critical eye about a lot of the stuff out there and that includes the clip below. Judge for yourself whether it is worth it, but considering how cheap and easy it is to take Vitamin D I thought it was worth posting for consideration (most interesting parts are near the beginning and near the end imo):



 
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2020 11:06 AM by Bearhawkeye.)
05-18-2020 09:19 PM
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The Big O Offline
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Post: #269
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-16-2020 01:26 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  Getting on my first airplane since the quarantine this Wednesday. Headed to Florida to see Mom and spend some time at the beach.

I've been surprised at how many weird faces I've received when I mentioned air travel to friends and colleagues. People have even asked if I was going to quarantine myself for 14 days when I get back home......NO!

This article interviewing the former head of Epidemiology at The Rockefeller University's Center for Clinical and Translational Science captures my thoughts completely.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15...ole-thing/

I'd be interested in hearing how your stay goes. I was trying to plan a trip with my girlfriend to Florida in the middle of June, but as of right now there's still a 14 day quarantine on people entering the state. Even some of the hotels said they may refuse your stay if it's not essential.
 
05-19-2020 09:01 AM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #270
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
Damn, I miss this...

 
05-19-2020 04:37 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #271
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
We comin' after it...

 
05-19-2020 04:40 PM
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Ragpicker Offline
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Post: #272
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-19-2020 09:01 AM)The Big O Wrote:  
(05-16-2020 01:26 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  Getting on my first airplane since the quarantine this Wednesday. Headed to Florida to see Mom and spend some time at the beach.

I've been surprised at how many weird faces I've received when I mentioned air travel to friends and colleagues. People have even asked if I was going to quarantine myself for 14 days when I get back home......NO!

This article interviewing the former head of Epidemiology at The Rockefeller University's Center for Clinical and Translational Science captures my thoughts completely.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15...ole-thing/

I'd be interested in hearing how your stay goes. I was trying to plan a trip with my girlfriend to Florida in the middle of June, but as of right now there's still a 14 day quarantine on people entering the state. Even some of the hotels said they may refuse your stay if it's not essential.

That information is old now (still showing on hotel websites) in most of the State - especially central Florida and the Atlantic coast beaches near Orlando. I would recommend calling each property and speaking with someone on site. Our hotel said that the outdoor bar/restaurant is open on the weekends - right on the beach. Most nearby restaurants are open for indoor seating. I know all the restaurants/shopping near my Mom's place are open. The ban on non-essential hotel guests expired April 30th and was not renewed.

The virus is not exploding in Florida since it opened up - and it won't. It will be 90 and I'll be in the ocean. Corona wants no part of the outdoor summer sun.
 
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2020 07:03 PM by Ragpicker.)
05-19-2020 06:45 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #273
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
Florida's COVID dashboard scientist claims she was removed due to her reluctance to manipulate data

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...0OeQLd0QOA
 
05-20-2020 08:52 AM
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Lush Offline
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Post: #274
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
i need a two month primer on how to wash my hands. until government decrees i won't feel safe
 
05-20-2020 01:13 PM
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bearcatfan Offline
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Post: #275
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-20-2020 01:13 PM)Lush Wrote:  i need a two month primer on how to wash my hands. until government decrees i won't feel safe

I've been "practicing" social distancing for over two months. I think I have it down now.
 
05-20-2020 01:50 PM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #276
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-20-2020 01:50 PM)bearcatfan Wrote:  
(05-20-2020 01:13 PM)Lush Wrote:  i need a two month primer on how to wash my hands. until government decrees i won't feel safe

I've been "practicing" social distancing for over two months. I think I have it down now.

I've been practicing social distancing for over two decades. I don't even have to work at it, people just seem to stay away on their own.
 
05-20-2020 03:45 PM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #277
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-20-2020 03:45 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  
(05-20-2020 01:50 PM)bearcatfan Wrote:  
(05-20-2020 01:13 PM)Lush Wrote:  i need a two month primer on how to wash my hands. until government decrees i won't feel safe

I've been "practicing" social distancing for over two months. I think I have it down now.

I've been practicing social distancing for over two decades. I don't even have to work at it, people just seem to stay away on their own.

Right out of a Rodney Dangerfield stand up routine--love it! 04-cheers
 
05-20-2020 03:53 PM
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Dannyboy Offline
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Post: #278
RE: OT: COVID Check-In
(05-20-2020 08:52 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Florida's COVID dashboard scientist claims she was removed due to her reluctance to manipulate data

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...0OeQLd0QOA

The other side of this story:

https://weartv.com/news/local/desantis-f...nt-charges

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/05/2...-all-fake/
 
05-20-2020 04:42 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: OT: COVID Check-In
[Image: 5e8e15cf2cbae.jpeg]
 
05-20-2020 06:55 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: OT: COVID Check-In
[Image: wilson-home-improvement.jpg]
 
05-20-2020 07:00 PM
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