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Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
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ECUGrad07 Offline
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Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"
03-26-2020 01:32 PM
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WKUYG Away
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"

The flu in the US killed 5,000 (23,000 total)from Feb 15th to March 14th, another 100,000 were hospitalized. Add another million cases to the 38 million.

but we down shutdown the country and ask everyone to "stay away from each other"


World wide there are 500,000 cases of the coronavirus and 22k deaths from the virus. Let that sink in because that's probably not 1% of the flu cases and deaths. I believe this started in Oct or Nov. or close to the same amount of time as...the common flu
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 01:45 PM by WKUYG.)
03-26-2020 01:43 PM
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UofMTigerTim Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
That is a pretty big drop.
03-26-2020 01:43 PM
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banker Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
But we must listen to the experts 'cause they're experts.
03-26-2020 01:48 PM
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Claw Online
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
He used the climate change math the first time.
03-26-2020 01:52 PM
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequ...f-covid-19
03-26-2020 01:57 PM
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
People in the US had this as far back as late 2019.

[Image: EUDRmqJWsAAJQA_?format=jpg&name=medium]
03-26-2020 01:59 PM
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maximus Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:52 PM)Claw Wrote:  He used the climate change math the first time.
Ahhh I like

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03-26-2020 02:00 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"

Soooooo...this seems to be an overreaction? Far less dead than even the regular flu? Hmmmm.....Agendas much?
03-26-2020 02:04 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"
Thanks alot Neil. Too late hoss, the damage is done.
03-26-2020 02:10 PM
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UofMstateU Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
This is why you dont put "scientists" in charge of the economy. Thank God we had Trump to oversee this and keep them in line.
03-26-2020 02:12 PM
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fsquid Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
Time to open back up. Game on!
03-26-2020 02:13 PM
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JMUDunk Online
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"

Yea, that's a pretty big Oooops!

This is why I was suspect of a lot of these "models" to begin with- "if no actions were taken". Did anyone think that would be the case? Anyone?

That the entire world, in 2020, would simply sit idly by and watch millions and millions die? I certainly never believed that.
03-26-2020 02:16 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 02:04 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"

Soooooo...this seems to be an overreaction? Far less dead than even the regular flu? Hmmmm.....Agendas much?
How soon before he has to "change his tune" and lower this estimate? Bureaucratic Scientists. What an oxymoron.
03-26-2020 02:17 PM
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EigenEagle Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
What's funny is that this piece that was removed from Medium will be much closer to the mark than the Imperial College paper that's been cited so much.
03-26-2020 02:23 PM
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DavidSt Online
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:59 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  People in the US had this as far back as late 2019.

[Image: EUDRmqJWsAAJQA_?format=jpg&name=medium]


Well, this snapshot is now old as Italy just reported and went back to 2nd with the number of cases. Getting close to 25,000 worldwide. I do think his downgrade figures are too low as well.
03-26-2020 02:24 PM
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JMUDunk Online
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 01:43 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
"

The flu in the US killed 5,000 (23,000 total)from Feb 15th to March 14th, another 100,000 were hospitalized. Add another million cases to the 38 million.

but we down shutdown the country and ask everyone to "stay away from each other"


World wide there are 500,000 cases of the coronavirus and 22k deaths from the virus. Let that sink in because that's probably not 1% of the flu cases and deaths. I believe this started in Oct or Nov. or close to the same amount of time as...the common flu

Late Nov., early Dec, but then the chinese communists sat on the info until it exploded, and then they sent everyone out of Wuhan into the larger population. And, of course, they let their people fly all over world too.
But, your larger point still stands.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 03:13 PM by JMUDunk.)
03-26-2020 02:26 PM
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DavidSt Online
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
We would not know how deep this virus reached unless we test everybody for it.
03-26-2020 02:30 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
(03-26-2020 02:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 01:59 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  People in the US had this as far back as late 2019.

[Image: EUDRmqJWsAAJQA_?format=jpg&name=medium]


Well, this snapshot is now old as Italy just reported and went back to 2nd with the number of cases. Getting close to 25,000 worldwide. I do think his downgrade figures are too low as well.
So you think more than 20,000 people will die in the UK from this? Really?
03-26-2020 02:31 PM
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fsquid Offline
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RE: Epidemiologist Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revised Model
I would like to see Neil's bank records but let's open back up!
03-26-2020 02:32 PM
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