I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

isn't denial to 'access', the purest form of admitting guilt......it's pretty much on par with 'pleading the fif'....

see, we're not that far apart in concept.....transparency is an entire other issue, Ja?!

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

But the Chinese are well aware that incompetence is more likely to be forgiven/understood by the world and media. The removal of reporters, access denial and info lockdown are all hallmarks of malicious intent. I get that China is a face-saving nation and thus places high importance on public perception, but it looks to everyone outside of the Middle Kingdom as actions simply to maintain Xi's power.

(03-29-2020 09:20 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

But the Chinese are well aware that incompetence is more likely to be forgiven/understood by the world and media. The removal of reporters, access denial and info lockdown are all hallmarks of malicious intent. I get that China is a face-saving nation and thus places high importance on public perception, but it looks to everyone outside of the Middle Kingdom as actions simply to maintain Xi's power.

IDK, seems like it would be very stupid on their part to shine a floodlight on their poor behavior on the world stage. If they would simply try to weather the storm then they had a shot to quietly infect the international economic system more deeply. Intentionally spreading the disease would have people recoil in horror at Chinese practices. The frog in the pot analogy fits here.

IMHO, it was a bottom up failure and everything appears to be CYA actions. Low level communists in the local governments live off of government corruption, and if they look incompetent then they are removed and lose their livelihoods. It daisy chains up the hierarchy - this notion that CYA is cultural in the Chicom world. This is different than saving face IMHO.

However, if you subscribe to Zeihan’s views on China where they are very close to a rapid slide due to their ridiculous degree of leverage coupled with demographics... then perhaps this is a desperate gambit on their part?

(03-29-2020 09:33 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 09:20 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

But the Chinese are well aware that incompetence is more likely to be forgiven/understood by the world and media. The removal of reporters, access denial and info lockdown are all hallmarks of malicious intent. I get that China is a face-saving nation and thus places high importance on public perception, but it looks to everyone outside of the Middle Kingdom as actions simply to maintain Xi's power.

IDK, seems like it would be very stupid on their part to shine a floodlight on their poor behavior on the world stage. If they would simply try to weather the storm then they had a shot to quietly infect the international economic system more deeply. Intentionally spreading the disease would have people recoil in horror at Chinese practices. The frog in the pot analogy fits here.

IMHO, it was a bottom up failure and everything appears to be CYA actions. Low level communists in the local governments live off of government corruption, and if they look incompetent then they are removed and lose their livelihoods. It daisy chains up the hierarchy - this notion that CYA is cultural in the Chicom world. This is different than saving face IMHO.

However, if you subscribe to Zeihan’s views on China where they are very close to a rapid slide due to their ridiculous degree of leverage coupled with demographics... then perhaps this is a desperate gambit on their part?

I don't know who Zeihan is, but I've been pounding that gavel for some time now....once they started dumping cheap Fe and overbuilding, it was pretty fk'n obvious what they were doing....hell, that was ~15 yrs. ago....

all I'm seeing since #henceDJT is another attempt from the chinks to chink the armor by devaluing the USD to help leverage their position on the 'board'....the Yuan is fk'd and they have to pay incrementally as they are the second largest foreign debt owner of the USD

if one doesn't think this was unleashed and them reacting in 'fashion' wasn't intentional???

well, I can't help ya....

#ruthlessSloped

(03-29-2020 09:33 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 09:20 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

But the Chinese are well aware that incompetence is more likely to be forgiven/understood by the world and media. The removal of reporters, access denial and info lockdown are all hallmarks of malicious intent. I get that China is a face-saving nation and thus places high importance on public perception, but it looks to everyone outside of the Middle Kingdom as actions simply to maintain Xi's power.

IDK, seems like it would be very stupid on their part to shine a floodlight on their poor behavior on the world stage. If they would simply try to weather the storm then they had a shot to quietly infect the international economic system more deeply. Intentionally spreading the disease would have people recoil in horror at Chinese practices. The frog in the pot analogy fits here.

IMHO, it was a bottom up failure and everything appears to be CYA actions. Low level communists in the local governments live off of government corruption, and if they look incompetent then they are removed and lose their livelihoods. It daisy chains up the hierarchy - this notion that CYA is cultural in the Chicom world. This is different than saving face IMHO.

However, if you subscribe to Zeihan’s views on China where they are very close to a rapid slide due to their ridiculous degree of leverage coupled with demographics... then perhaps this is a desperate gambit on their part?

I do read Zeihan’s blog but if the CCP felt they were out of time with regard to economic and demographic failure, I don’t see how this was the intelligent play. CV19 doesn’t have the mortality rate needed to make a dent.

(03-29-2020 09:50 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 09:33 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 09:20 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

But the Chinese are well aware that incompetence is more likely to be forgiven/understood by the world and media. The removal of reporters, access denial and info lockdown are all hallmarks of malicious intent. I get that China is a face-saving nation and thus places high importance on public perception, but it looks to everyone outside of the Middle Kingdom as actions simply to maintain Xi's power.

IDK, seems like it would be very stupid on their part to shine a floodlight on their poor behavior on the world stage. If they would simply try to weather the storm then they had a shot to quietly infect the international economic system more deeply. Intentionally spreading the disease would have people recoil in horror at Chinese practices. The frog in the pot analogy fits here.

IMHO, it was a bottom up failure and everything appears to be CYA actions. Low level communists in the local governments live off of government corruption, and if they look incompetent then they are removed and lose their livelihoods. It daisy chains up the hierarchy - this notion that CYA is cultural in the Chicom world. This is different than saving face IMHO.

However, if you subscribe to Zeihan’s views on China where they are very close to a rapid slide due to their ridiculous degree of leverage coupled with demographics... then perhaps this is a desperate gambit on their part?

I don't know who Zeihan is, but I've been pounding that gavel for some time now....once they started dumping cheap Fe and overbuilding, it was pretty fk'n obvious what they were doing....hell, that was ~15 yrs. ago....

all I'm seeing since #henceDJT is another attempt from the chinks to chink the armor by devaluing the USD to help leverage their position on the 'board'....the Yuan is fk'd and they have to pay incrementally as they are the second largest foreign debt owner of the USD

if one doesn't think this was unleashed and them reacting in 'fashion' wasn't intentional???

well, I can't help ya....

#ruthlessSloped

Nobody is saying it couldn’t have been planned, but if that is the case this was a DUMB gamble. It is impossible for them devalue US currency to the point that the CCP needs because everyone still trusts the dollar in spite the manipulation by the FED for the past 30 years. Besides crashing the dollar would essentially be a bullet to the face for China as they need viable economies to by their crap.

(03-29-2020 10:48 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 09:33 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 09:20 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)Claw Wrote:  I think we are assuming China's government is far more efficient and organized than it really is.

I believe it is more likely that China simply didn't realize what was happening in the beginning. They weren't hiding anything. They just didn't detect what was happening. As it progressed, it wasn't the disease they were hiding. They were hiding their initial failure to detect the problem.

I think the incompetence factor is far more likely to explain their early actions than any other theory. It also explains their current actions. They are not going to say anything now until they are sure they want get embarrassed again.

But the Chinese are well aware that incompetence is more likely to be forgiven/understood by the world and media. The removal of reporters, access denial and info lockdown are all hallmarks of malicious intent. I get that China is a face-saving nation and thus places high importance on public perception, but it looks to everyone outside of the Middle Kingdom as actions simply to maintain Xi's power.

IDK, seems like it would be very stupid on their part to shine a floodlight on their poor behavior on the world stage. If they would simply try to weather the storm then they had a shot to quietly infect the international economic system more deeply. Intentionally spreading the disease would have people recoil in horror at Chinese practices. The frog in the pot analogy fits here.

IMHO, it was a bottom up failure and everything appears to be CYA actions. Low level communists in the local governments live off of government corruption, and if they look incompetent then they are removed and lose their livelihoods. It daisy chains up the hierarchy - this notion that CYA is cultural in the Chicom world. This is different than saving face IMHO.

However, if you subscribe to Zeihan’s views on China where they are very close to a rapid slide due to their ridiculous degree of leverage coupled with demographics... then perhaps this is a desperate gambit on their part?

I do read Zeihan’s blog but if the CCP felt they were out of time with regard to economic and demographic failure, I don’t see how this was the intelligent play. CV19 doesn’t have the mortality rate needed to make a dent.

IDK how it would be beneficial tbh - just speculating on why they would do it intentionally. IMHO, people in the Chinese government were doing CYA at the lower levels and based on their party structure each layer tried to cover it up to hide incompetence.

(03-29-2020 10:58 AM)miko33 Wrote:  IDK how it would be beneficial tbh - just speculating on why they would do it intentionally. IMHO, people in the Chinese government were doing CYA at the lower levels and based on their party structure each layer tried to cover it up to hide incompetence.

Then how long until the purges start?

(03-29-2020 11:01 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 10:58 AM)miko33 Wrote:  IDK how it would be beneficial tbh - just speculating on why they would do it intentionally. IMHO, people in the Chinese government were doing CYA at the lower levels and based on their party structure each layer tried to cover it up to hide incompetence.

Then how long until the purges start?

Who said they haven't been going on since last year. This is an old people (non-worker) virus.

(03-29-2020 11:08 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 11:01 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-29-2020 10:58 AM)miko33 Wrote:  IDK how it would be beneficial tbh - just speculating on why they would do it intentionally. IMHO, people in the Chinese government were doing CYA at the lower levels and based on their party structure each layer tried to cover it up to hide incompetence.

Then how long until the purges start?

Who said they haven't been going on since last year. This is an old people (non-worker) virus.

I was referring more to purges with the party due to the failure to act properly, instead of the cover up that low level bureaucrats implemented as miko suggests.