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Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
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DFWMINER Offline
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Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
This is the number we should be watching and tracking.

More testing leads to a rise in number of cases. We will never truly know the total number of infected. I read this morning USA has tested more people than any other country.

What we do know is our population and the number of deaths attributed to this virus (right or wrong).

USA is tracking at 3 deaths per million. South Korea tracked at 2 for a point of reference.

With our population at 330 million that equates to less than 1000 dead at the current rate. Since we are currently at over 800 dead I believe our rate per million will be higher but no where near Italy.

Italy seems to be a big outlier in the data with a rate of 124 per million. Even using this rate we would be at 40,000 dead which is a lot but we have had flu seasons with 80000 dead.

The next closest rate to Italy is Spain with 74 dead per million.
03-25-2020 03:29 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
Agreed. At this point worrying about positive tests is pointless. Everyone is getting this bug either in 2 months or 2 years if a vaccine isn't created. It is a morbid POV but, tracking deaths and comparing it with high but controllable mortality rates in the U.S. is the only metric that matters
03-25-2020 05:22 PM
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WKUApollo Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 05:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  Agreed. At this point worrying about positive tests is pointless. Everyone is getting this bug either in 2 months or 2 years if a vaccine isn't created. It is a morbid POV but, tracking deaths and comparing it with high but controllable mortality rates in the U.S. is the only metric that matters

Agreed. Another datapoint I'd like to eventually see is the number of infected who do recover that have lasting lung damage issues. That's the great unknown.

I have a feeling that eventually, when this does pass, that we'll have a much better comparison of Health Care systems between countries. My gut tells me that our system will be a shining star for the world. We'll have far fewer dying once infected than all those government run health care systems around the world. Our free market system is much more flexible and resilient than rigid government run systems....granted, our system does have some governmental restraints that we'll definitely need to revisit.
03-25-2020 05:30 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
So far all 50 states and three of our US citizen territories have cases and deaths. Guam and Puerto Rico combined 3 deaths. America Samoa and Northern Marinaras have no reported cases or deaths.

There are now 148 new deaths today, and 10,568 new cases just today alone.

Michigan, New Jersey and Louisiana had the most deaths today.

New Mexico, Iowa and North Carolina suffered the first deaths today. Many states who had the few cases got a spike of new cases as it is spreading. From what I can tell, the hot spots for the outbreaks are in the large populated areas of each state.
03-25-2020 05:46 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 05:46 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  From what I can tell, the hot spots for the outbreaks are in the large populated areas of each state.


Yes, it's true, a virus does need a host.


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(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 05:58 PM by georgia_tech_swagger.)
03-25-2020 05:58 PM
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
While there are large numbers of increasing cases everyday, I wish they would categorize between mild/treated at home serious/requires hospitalization and critical/requires ICU.
03-25-2020 06:08 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
I agree the death total is what we should now be concentrating on. And I agree that in most places in the USA, it's looking pretty good.

The exceptions are New York City (100 deaths there with a population of 8 million) - and many of the other New York deaths (185) and New Jersey (62) are pretty close to NYC, one would assume, and New Orleans (400K population, 37 deaths already). Detroit and Oakland County is another area whose numbers are going up pretty dramatically. It's possible Atlanta is another area of concern (there are now 47 deaths in Georgia but I'm not sure where the bulk of those have occurred).

I think we need to figure out what's happening there to spike up the numbers. I don't believe it's as simple as big cities with Democratic mayors. If that was your reason, then why only 1 death currently in San Francisco proper and 2 in Harris County (4.6 million people)?
03-25-2020 06:12 PM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 06:08 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  While there are large numbers of increasing cases everyday, I wish they would categorize between mild/treated at home serious/requires hospitalization and critical/requires ICU.

I agree. The way the media is portraying each new case it is as if each new case is a death sentence.
03-25-2020 06:20 PM
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VA49er Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 05:58 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 05:46 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  From what I can tell, the hot spots for the outbreaks are in the large populated areas of each state.


Yes, it's true, a virus does need a host.

Eh, don't knock him too hard. It's rare he looks at data and draws a logical conclusion. We should applaud the effort.
03-25-2020 06:21 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 06:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I agree the death total is what we should now be concentrating on. And I agree that in most places in the USA, it's looking pretty good.

The exceptions are New York City (100 deaths there with a population of 8 million) - and many of the other New York deaths (185) and New Jersey (62) are pretty close to NYC, one would assume, and New Orleans (400K population, 37 deaths already). Detroit and Oakland County is another area whose numbers are going up pretty dramatically. It's possible Atlanta is another area of concern (there are now 47 deaths in Georgia but I'm not sure where the bulk of those have occurred).

I think we need to figure out what's happening there to spike up the numbers. I don't believe it's as simple as big cities with Democratic mayors. If that was your reason, then why only 1 death currently in San Francisco proper and 2 in Harris County (4.6 million people)?
Probably people disregarding the social distancing policies. I heard a report on the radio today concerning New Yorkers. The grocery store will only let 5 people in to shop at a time, but there’s a line queued up halfway around the block with people waiting to get in. And they are standing right on top of each other. The observer said “cmon people 6 feet apart! Don’t you read the paper?” Someone in the crowd said “You ain’t a public health worker and you ain’t a cop- so shut the eff up. Or this situation might get tense and you won’t like the results.”

Why is common sense so uncommon?
03-25-2020 06:58 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 06:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I agree the death total is what we should now be concentrating on. And I agree that in most places in the USA, it's looking pretty good.

The exceptions are New York City (100 deaths there with a population of 8 million) - and many of the other New York deaths (185) and New Jersey (62) are pretty close to NYC, one would assume, and New Orleans (400K population, 37 deaths already). Detroit and Oakland County is another area whose numbers are going up pretty dramatically. It's possible Atlanta is another area of concern (there are now 47 deaths in Georgia but I'm not sure where the bulk of those have occurred).

I think we need to figure out what's happening there to spike up the numbers. I don't believe it's as simple as big cities with Democratic mayors. If that was your reason, then why only 1 death currently in San Francisco proper and 2 in Harris County (4.6 million people)?

420 people die every day in NYC alone. This death count for the entire state has been over the course of 2 MONTHS. So.,on average 27,300 people have died in NYC ALONE since Jan. 20th. So 150xs more people have died from something other than CoVid19 in NYC ALONE. This is a non event in my state of Mississippi. Nearly 400 positive test and three deaths. All of which wete older people with health probs. Nail salons and bars opening up. Just saw a local bar selling crawfish dockside on a Facebook post. 85 and sunny. Boat ramps were packed last weekend.
03-25-2020 06:59 PM
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Niner National Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 06:08 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  While there are large numbers of increasing cases everyday, I wish they would categorize between mild/treated at home serious/requires hospitalization and critical/requires ICU.

Cooper said today (or maybe it was yesterday) that we only had 29 in hospitals. The other cases were mild.
03-25-2020 07:03 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 06:21 PM)VA49er Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 05:58 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 05:46 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  From what I can tell, the hot spots for the outbreaks are in the large populated areas of each state.


Yes, it's true, a virus does need a host.

Eh, don't knock him too hard. It's rare he looks at data and draws a logical conclusion. We should applaud the effort.

I agree. I've seen David softened a bit lately. I think he is figuring out THE USA is a pretty "exceptional" place to be.
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 07:15 PM by Eagleaidaholic.)
03-25-2020 07:14 PM
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BatonRougeEscapee Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 06:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I agree the death total is what we should now be concentrating on. And I agree that in most places in the USA, it's looking pretty good.

The exceptions are New York City (100 deaths there with a population of 8 million) - and many of the other New York deaths (185) and New Jersey (62) are pretty close to NYC, one would assume, and New Orleans (400K population, 37 deaths already). Detroit and Oakland County is another area whose numbers are going up pretty dramatically. It's possible Atlanta is another area of concern (there are now 47 deaths in Georgia but I'm not sure where the bulk of those have occurred).

I think we need to figure out what's happening there to spike up the numbers. I don't believe it's as simple as big cities with Democratic mayors. If that was your reason, then why only 1 death currently in San Francisco proper and 2 in Harris County (4.6 million people)?

Manhattan has a population density of 70,000 per SQ mile. NYC = 28,000 per SQ mile. Highest figures in the US. Add in the reliance on public transportation, large influx of foreign visitors, and you have a recipe for disaster.

This will hit other large cities as well, but NYC is the most vulnerable.
San Francisco is 21st on the list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographi..._York_City

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un...on_density
03-25-2020 07:18 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 07:18 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 06:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I agree the death total is what we should now be concentrating on. And I agree that in most places in the USA, it's looking pretty good.

The exceptions are New York City (100 deaths there with a population of 8 million) - and many of the other New York deaths (185) and New Jersey (62) are pretty close to NYC, one would assume, and New Orleans (400K population, 37 deaths already). Detroit and Oakland County is another area whose numbers are going up pretty dramatically. It's possible Atlanta is another area of concern (there are now 47 deaths in Georgia but I'm not sure where the bulk of those have occurred).

I think we need to figure out what's happening there to spike up the numbers. I don't believe it's as simple as big cities with Democratic mayors. If that was your reason, then why only 1 death currently in San Francisco proper and 2 in Harris County (4.6 million people)?

Manhattan has a population density of 70,000 per SQ mile. NYC = 28,000 per SQ mile. Highest figures in the US. Add in the reliance on public transportation, large influx of foreign visitors, and you have a recipe for disaster.

This will hit other large cities as well, but NYC is the most vulnerable.
San Francisco is 21st on the list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographi..._York_City

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un...on_density

You forgot to mention Sanctuary city status. Illegals are immune to stuff us Americans have never dreamed of but are carriers of it.
03-25-2020 07:21 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
“The "Asian Flu" was a category 2 flu pandemic outbreak of avian influenza that originated in China in early 1956 lasting until 1958. It originated from a mutation in wild ducks combining with a pre-existing human strain.[61] The virus was first identified in Guizhou.[62] It spread to Singapore in February 1957, reached Hong Kong by April, and US by June. Death toll in the US was approximately 116,000.”

Was talking to an old colleague today, my friend and mentor. He was reminiscing about the Asian flu in ‘58. Said he caught it, everyone caught it. He was in highschool at the time, he went home for a few days and felt like crap, but then was right back at it. They didn’t shut anything down. They kept on going right through it.

I can’t argue that the steps we are taking appear to be mitigating the disease and are effective. But there has to be a line in the sand at some point. Our healthcare system is astronomically better than compared with 60 yrs ago. I don’t think we will get anywhere close to 116,000 deaths from coronavirus. I don’t understand all this sensationalism. I am worried that people losing their jobs, without savings and means, and who may be already in poor health are going to crash hard. The first thing they will quit buying are their expensive meds. I have seen a few viral illnesses that turn into ARDs and put people on ventilators and even cause fatalities. I have seen a HELL of a lot more heart failure exacerbations, heart attacks, strokes, diabetic keto acidosis cases, and blood clots that have killed people. You want to see full hospitals? Keep up this lockdown and you will see it from noncompliance of critical life-saving medications that people can barely afford as it is.

At some point we have to get back to work. The doctors and scientists need to sit down with economists and develop a time-line that is reasonable and a strategy that works to ease the economy back into full gear. Should be done cautiously and intelligently, but is should be done none-the-less.

We certainly can’t continue to have this kind of scrambling, panicked, sensationalized response to every seasonal illness.
03-25-2020 07:28 PM
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 07:03 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 06:08 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  While there are large numbers of increasing cases everyday, I wish they would categorize between mild/treated at home serious/requires hospitalization and critical/requires ICU.

Cooper said today (or maybe it was yesterday) that we only had 29 in hospitals. The other cases were mild.

So the Mecklenburg County Stay at Home order seems like overreach? I'm pissed about it, as I have a major home remodel that is now on hold due to this.
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 07:33 PM by THE NC Herd Fan.)
03-25-2020 07:33 PM
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
these morons actually think America as a whole will go along with a 2 month long lockdown?


(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 07:44 PM by TigersOhMy.)
03-25-2020 07:42 PM
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olliebaba Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 07:14 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 06:21 PM)VA49er Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 05:58 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 05:46 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  From what I can tell, the hot spots for the outbreaks are in the large populated areas of each state.


Yes, it's true, a virus does need a host.

Eh, don't knock him too hard. It's rare he looks at data and draws a logical conclusion. We should applaud the effort.

I agree. I've seen David softened a bit lately. I think he is figuring out THE USA is a pretty "exceptional" place to be.

Maybe it's the 1200 bucks he's to receive. Which country will give you free money?
03-25-2020 07:43 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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RE: Total deaths per 1 million population ...USA looking good
(03-25-2020 07:42 PM)TigersOhMy Wrote:  these morons actually think America as a whole will go along with a 2 month long lockdown?



Mussissippi needs to open up tomorrow. It's Spring. This all a bunch of bullsh*t. Summer colds are always the worst.
03-25-2020 07:54 PM
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