(03-24-2020 02:58 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Trump made it clear that if the projected deaths hang out in the common flu territory, then he is willing to take that chance to get the economy back on track.

They arent going to. Flu numbers are around 1 or 2 tenths of one percent. Covid-19 will be higher than that. Worse yet---they are going to have a death parade in the media capital of the world where every network will be breathlessly reporting it.

Here's the deal. You can only stop those deaths by putting the country on lock down for 3 to 6 months. No economy can survive that. So the real life and death question is---How many die of lack of insurance/malnutrition/suicide/lack of safety net in a depression that lasts 5 to 10 years vs how many die in a moderated response to the Covid-19. Thats the choice facing the White House.

Maybe not. I was just posting what Trump said, since I watched it.

Oh I agree...I was watching as well. Im just pointing out he really doesnt have any great options here. Our only real hope is that the malaria drug/Zpac combo works out. Maybe with that---and our greater availabilty of ICU beds and ventilators--- you can get the mortality down below 1%. I think we can do as well as Korea with our outcomes---but I think our total deaths will be huge because our population is so much bigger. Right now---at this rate---we will be number one in infections in just 4 or 5 more days. That by itself translates into bad news in the casualty front.

Bs...isolate the ones most in danger..

Do u not realize how simple that is...

fk me...

And how exactly do you do that with something that is asymptomatic in many? Thats one big reason this is so different. I mean---Im fine with that being part of the plan---but we need more of an end game than that. Most "at risk" people dont live in old folks homes.

(03-24-2020 02:44 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 02:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesnt matter. Its a no win. You pick Depression or a crap load of deaths. Neither is good. One affects some of us---the other affects us all for a long long time. Question---is the long term number of unneccessary domestic deaths higher for extensive and purvasive long term poverty or from a Covid-19 pandemic? I dont know the answer---but its an important question.

Trump made it clear that if the projected deaths hang out in the common flu territory, then he is willing to take that chance to get the economy back on track.

They arent going to. Flu numbers are around 1 or 2 tenths of one percent. Covid-19 will be higher than that. Worse yet---they are going to have a death parade in the media capital of the world where every network will be breathlessly reporting it.

Here's the deal. You can only stop those deaths by putting the country on lock down for 3 to 6 months. No economy can survive that. So the real life and death question is---How many die of lack of insurance/malnutrition/suicide/lack of safety net in a depression that lasts 5 to 10 years vs how many die in a moderated response to the Covid-19. Thats the choice facing the White House.

Maybe not. I was just posting what Trump said, since I watched it.

According to numbers I have seen and linked on this board, the Flu killed up to 80,000 people in America alone last year. What people that say, "This isn't the flu" or "This is worse than the flu" seem to not realize is, as of now it is not even close and that the flu does not discriminate who it kills. This bug does. There is easily no doubt based on historical numbers that the flu has killed more people than CoVid19 has in the past 3 months in America. Influenza is the reason there is a shortage of ICU beds in certain places, but we have learned to accept that for some reason. I heard today that NO ONE under the age of 30 has died in Italy and NO ONE in the continent of Europe under the age of 15 has died. This bug DOES discriminate who it kills. Of course, you are going to have outliers of this that get very sick, but those are anomalies. When this is all said and done, there will be fewer deaths overall in American during this "crisis" for the plain fact that no one is doing anything. Approximately 100 people PER DAY die in America in car accidents. This number will obviously go down alone.

Yes. Maybe the computer models do, but the actual numbers don't support the doom and gloom scenarios. I'm not convinced this would be any worse than a bad flue season.

And if you try too hard to stifle it, you create a 2nd peak in the fall and so probably make it worse. You want some people to catch it. You just don't want the at-risk to catch it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8...8435cd42d9

This model suggests that half of the UK is already infected, saying the virus is minor in most people and much less deadly than projected.

(03-24-2020 01:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 12:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Trump subscribes to the Stink Doctrine. He is really itching to pull all the stay at home orders and put everybody back to work.

I imagine he will hold off until next Monday, at least, but he said he intends for the stay at home orders to be gone by Easter (April 12), and still "practice good social distancing."

He cited the average number of annual deaths for the flu (36K), and said we don't shut down the economy for that, or stop manufacturers from building cars, b/c so many die in traffic accidents.

You can tell he is getting hot under the collar about the economy. At one time, he said, "Three weeks ago, we had the strongest economy in the world, and now it's being destroyed. We used to pay people to work. Now we're paying them not to work...More people are going to die if we don't get back to work." Paraphrasing.

What did Dr Fauchi say?

Trump is concerned with the political fallout of a declining economy... and I understand the economic and political concern, but this isn’t the flu... for which there is a vaccine and is far less communicable and lethal. Flu season lasts for 8 months. If Coronavirus goes unchecked for 8 months, the fallout would be disastrous. It’s a false and reckless equivalency.

FYI.... Fox is not neutral.

For an illness that we know so little about we're making predictions like this? What happens if the predictions fall short? Will wrecking the economy be wreckless?

(03-24-2020 01:53 PM)Momus Wrote:  The Great Orange Prick makes decisions that kill Americans, the right-wingers applaud on cue. They are complete traitors to our country. We loyal Americans will never forget.

Such as, specifically?

Did you join the chorus with Sloe to call him RACISSS!!! and xenophobic for restricting travel from China early on? Do you think that was a net positive or net negative?

Is DeSantos similarly a RACISSS!!! for restricting travel for folks coming from the heavily infected blue States? Is that a net pos, or net neg?

I know you won't answer, cause you never have an answer, for anything. But, perhaps some of the other walking Talking Points will pause for a second and consider things a bit more objectively. Rather than reflexively- Orange Man Bad!

(03-24-2020 01:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 12:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Trump subscribes to the Stink Doctrine. He is really itching to pull all the stay at home orders and put everybody back to work.

I imagine he will hold off until next Monday, at least, but he said he intends for the stay at home orders to be gone by Easter (April 12), and still "practice good social distancing."

He cited the average number of annual deaths for the flu (36K), and said we don't shut down the economy for that, or stop manufacturers from building cars, b/c so many die in traffic accidents.

You can tell he is getting hot under the collar about the economy. At one time, he said, "Three weeks ago, we had the strongest economy in the world, and now it's being destroyed. We used to pay people to work. Now we're paying them not to work...More people are going to die if we don't get back to work." Paraphrasing.

What did Dr Fauchi say?

Trump is concerned with the political fallout of a declining economy... and I understand the economic and political concern, but this isn’t the flu... for which there is a vaccine and is far less communicable and lethal. Flu season lasts for 8 months. If Coronavirus goes unchecked for 8 months, the fallout would be disastrous. It’s a false and reckless equivalency.

FYI.... Fox is not neutral.

First, I have seen Dr. Fauci back up the president more so than not. He understands Trump is not a scientist, and in business/everyday life you make decisions off of gut instinct or even data that is persuading even if a theory/medicine/etc. may not be 100% scientifically confirmed because you don't always have time to wait. In this case, we obviously can't wait for all of those and clearly Trump is trying to be as optimistic as possible in this terrible situation.

I'm sure it's in the president's mind (as it would be in any president's mind) how the economic decline may impact his re-election, but to just claim The President is only motivated by political fallout proves your not Mensa material.

Have you ever seen the Movie "The Big Short"? I happened to have seen it many times and clearly remember Brad Pitt's character (Ben Ricker) claiming that 40,000 people die when unemployment rises each percentage point or goes up by 1%?

Since this was a movie, did some basic google searches to see how accurate and here it goes:

1) A Yale study that does not include exact statistics but comes to the conclusion of higher national mortality rate when unemployment increases: (https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-...cher-shows)

2) Luckily someone responded with some good knowledge on Quora:
It's often credited to Gregory Mankiw and his textbook "Macroeconomics", but I can't find it in my book (the 7th edition), perhaps it wasn't in the actual book but only in the accompanying slides.
Anyway, looking online it shows up in "The American Economy: What it is and what it isn't" by Thomas and Carson on page 300 under the subheading "The cost of unemployment". They cite their source as Bluestone, Harrison and Baker, "The Causes and Consequences of Economic Dislocation" from 1981.
The information put forth for a 1 %-point increase is as follows:
37,000 deaths... of which:
20,000 heart attacks
920 suicides
650 homicides
(the rest is undisclosed as far as I can see)





So, let's do some basic math and we will take 40,000 since we have many more people in The United States of America today than in 1981.
- Unemployment in Dec 2019= 3.5%
- Estimated Unemployment by experts (including 20% by the President's Secretary of the Treasury) in Q2-Q3 2020 may hit up to 20-35%. Levels not seen since The Great Depression or in many cases even higher. We'll take 20% so we don't freak people out and hey it helps your argument against Trump.

Math time:
20%-3.5%= 17.5%
17.5 x 40,000 = 700,000 people dead (Note: You do not do .175 x 40,000. It is an increase of 40,000 for each percentage point increase.)

Now, I myself am skeptical that 40,000 people die directly or indirectly each percentage point unemployment rises. More likely the higher the unemployment number grows, the mortality rate would grow more and more exponentially.

I'll agree with Dr. Fauci that my statement about exponential growth is not confirmed and it would take numerous studies to confirm this quick theory, but I'd bet that is much more likely. Since your Mensa material, why don't you do the studies for me. Thanks!

Anyways, this is going to be a day to day decision on balancing the cost and benefits between fighting the virus itself and fighting the economic downturn as more and more data comes to light regarding each.

Note: Did not proof read so anyone feel free to correct any errors you may find as woo wee long day with work.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/20...l-laureate

"Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world....

But he also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

Levitt fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down...."

(03-24-2020 01:51 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 01:43 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 12:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Trump subscribes to the Stink Doctrine. He is really itching to pull all the stay at home orders and put everybody back to work.

And exactly what power does he have to tell my company that they can't require their employees to work from home until April 24th...my current mandate?

What power does he have to force the NHL, NBA and MLB to resume their seasons?

And what power does he have to tell state governors they can't issue stay at home orders, etc. in the name of public safety?

Remember most all in the GOP love state's rights.

Come Easter, there are going to be some awfully red states with an awful lot of people suffering from Coronavirus. Democratic governors can withstand the political fallout of defying Trump’s order... Red states will be in a bit of a dilemma.

I'm not convinced either the red states will have numbers comparable to what we've seen in New York and New Jersey (and Washington earlier). I think there are two main issues we're seeing with the higher death rates - one would be population density and two would be weather. In general, the colder states have much higher death totals than warmer states and big cities (outside of New Orleans, LA and Atlanta, GA, two southern states/cities with a slightly higher rate than other major southern cities currently - but two cities that also get their fair share of tourism).

Here's a story from accuweather which also suggests it's not temperature but UV-Rays which affect the mortality rate. In either case, southern states might fare better than the northern states because (a) they're behind on their curve so have had more time to flatten the curve and (b) because of weather issues - and in many cities' cases in the south, their population density is much lower.

I'd also say California is a good case of why weather might play a factor. San Francisco is the country's 2nd most densely populated big city (behind NYC) but its death rate hasn't been nearly as bad. The Bay Area can be chilly in the winter/early spring but they've had a much warmer start to 2020 than usual.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-we...-us/707057

(03-24-2020 04:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.latimes.com/science/story/20...l-laureate

"Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world....

But he also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

Levitt fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down...."

If this come true regarding the virus, that would be great news all around for the whole world!

See my post above yours for some basic statistics regarding unemployment rate and mortality rate.

(03-24-2020 04:59 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 01:51 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 01:43 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 12:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Trump subscribes to the Stink Doctrine. He is really itching to pull all the stay at home orders and put everybody back to work.

And exactly what power does he have to tell my company that they can't require their employees to work from home until April 24th...my current mandate?

What power does he have to force the NHL, NBA and MLB to resume their seasons?

And what power does he have to tell state governors they can't issue stay at home orders, etc. in the name of public safety?

Remember most all in the GOP love state's rights.

Come Easter, there are going to be some awfully red states with an awful lot of people suffering from Coronavirus. Democratic governors can withstand the political fallout of defying Trump’s order... Red states will be in a bit of a dilemma.

I'm not convinced either the red states will have numbers comparable to what we've seen in New York and New Jersey (and Washington earlier). I think there are two main issues we're seeing with the higher death rates - one would be population density and two would be weather. In general, the colder states have much higher death totals than warmer states and big cities (outside of New Orleans, LA and Atlanta, GA, two southern states/cities with a slightly higher rate than other major southern cities currently - but two cities that also get their fair share of tourism).

Here's a story from accuweather which also suggests it's not temperature but UV-Rays which affect the mortality rate. In either case, southern states might fare better than the northern states because (a) they're behind on their curve so have had more time to flatten the curve and (b) because of weather issues - and in many cities' cases in the south, their population density is much lower.

I'd also say California is a good case of why weather might play a factor. San Francisco is the country's 2nd most densely populated big city (behind NYC) but its death rate hasn't been nearly as bad. The Bay Area can be chilly in the winter/early spring but they've had a much warmer start to 2020 than usual.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-we...-us/707057

I suppose hypotheses on the spread of an relatively unknown virus are like... well, everybody has one. I am just regurgitating what ive heard from my wife and from others whose opinions I respect. Smoking, obesity, asthma and age are the leading known contributors to the mortality rate of coronavirus. It appears we’ve lucked out a bit thus far in that we’re seeing a much younger patient than Italy, but my fear is that could change if/when it hits the south in the coming weeks & months and from what I am told, our area will not hit it’s peak until May. We’ll see.

(03-24-2020 01:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  FYI.... Fox is not neutral.

And ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, or the Left’s favorite CNN are?

It’s hilarious how liberals complain about Fox but don’t have a problem with the other networks acting like the DNC’s Pravda.

Apparently the left doesn’t have a problem being lied to. For a supposed woke bunch they sure are easily fooled

(03-24-2020 06:01 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 01:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  FYI.... Fox is not neutral.

And ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, or the Left’s favorite CNN are?

It’s hilarious how liberals complain about Fox but don’t have a problem with the other networks acting like the DNC’s Pravda.

Apparently the left doesn’t have a problem being lied to. For a supposed woke bunch they sure are easily fooled

when one embraces proctology, they never look 'back'.....

(03-24-2020 01:08 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  FYI.... Fox is not neutral.

Neither are ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, WaPo, or NYTimes, among others.

Honestly, I don't even remember if we, the US, did anything significantly different during the H1N1 epidemic. I don't remember anyone telling us to remain quarantined or to get supplies before they disappeared. Today, we have Trump as president and all of this time the press and the anti-Trumpers are employing a panic driven story about how bad this virus is. Where was all the hoopla when Oblunder was president? I don't remember any. As far as I remember we went our own way and nothing changed.

Today, many people have panicked because we are bombarded by the media, yes even Fox News, about how bad this virus is. Do you know what will be worst than the virus? Panicked people hoarding at stores, restaurants going empty, people losing their jobs and wondering how they are going to feed their families. We'll be a type of Venezuela where no one but the elite can survive. If we're to die then at least make it where we can enjoy a little bit of happiness before we do because I tell you, quarantining the whole country for more than a month will surely drive us to the undertaker just as fast as stopping businesses will. I've been joking about how we would be eating pigeons and wild critters very soon but I was just kidding. If we close our economy then it won't be a joke it'll be for real. I say let's take our chances. Let's give our scientists a chance to come up with some cure. It's their neck just as much as it is ours, and they have a large stake in inventing one as most of them have families too. Let's get back to work.

Let's go about our business JUST LIKE WE DID WITH N1H1 and pray for our country. Oh, and Pelosi and Schumer should be tarred and feathered for playing politics with this crisis. We can impeach a president why can't we impeach those idiots?

Rant is over

That’s the difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans would never think of using a pandemic to destroy the country’s economy. Democrats, on the other hand, have weaponized this crisis using their misinformation media to spread panic and sow dissent against the President.

What is now plainly evident is any means to get rid of a dutifully elected president is acceptable. Any damage up to and including death is considered collateral damage.

Personally I believe Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi should be tried for treason and hung.

(03-24-2020 06:54 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Personally I believe Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi should be tried for treason and hung.

Sedition, not treason.

(03-24-2020 06:57 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 06:54 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Personally I believe Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi should be tried for treason and hung.

Sedition, not treason.

Good point... long as they got their necks stretched, I would celebrate.

(03-24-2020 06:54 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  What is now plainly evident is any means to get rid of a dutifully elected president is acceptable. Any damage up to and including death is considered collateral damage.

Personally I believe Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi should be tried for treason and hung.

I'm not as charitable. I wouldn't mind seeing both come down with the virus. Karma, baby. Those two don't really care about their constituents or the general population. Politics and especially POWER is more important to them than a pandemic and people losing jobs, their homes, income, their small business, etc.

What they've done injecting the typical leftist wish list into an emergency funding bill for Corona virus relief is the most partisan, dishonest and unbelievable act I think I've seen in my lifetime.

They are showing America their true colors - this is who they ARE. They've been hiding it until the last election. Then they freaking lost their minds and all have thrown in with the far left extremists in throwing a 3+ year temper tantrum.

They know they are about to get their butts kicked this fall and figure, why not throw all the things they want into this and hope the GOP acts the way they have for years and go along just to get something to pass.

(03-24-2020 06:54 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  That’s the difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans would never think of using a pandemic to destroy the country’s economy. Democrats, on the other hand, have weaponized this crisis using their misinformation media to spread panic and sow dissent against the President.

What is now plainly evident is any means to get rid of a dutifully elected president is acceptable. Any damage up to and including death is considered collateral damage.

Personally I believe Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi should be tried for treason and hung.

The left is much quicker to have the nanny state tell you what to do and think they know better than the people and so have the right to take away freedom.

Now current Democrats in DC don't care about anything but winning.

(03-24-2020 06:57 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(03-24-2020 06:54 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Personally I believe Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi should be tried for treason and hung.

Sedition, not treason.

Ja!, but he got the "hung" right....