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The CORONAVIRUS thread
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Usajags Offline
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Post: #1
The CORONAVIRUS thread
We keep talking about it in other threads, might as well have its own thread. In here post all things corona, worries, thoughts, questions, what’s going on in your area.

In Alabama cases are going up, of course, and they are keeping track of numbers by counties. Much like before, the only reason some counties have no cases is because no one in that county has been tested. Birmingham has had the most tests, so Birmingham has the most cases. I can’t keep up with what is a county order in Jefferson County(Birmingham) and what are stage orders. The National Guard has been called to help control or enforce or something. Schools are still currently supposed to go back in April 6th, currently that seems so far from now, I’m hoping that we can at least start getting back to normalcy by then, but they are saying June or July before that happens. How in the hell can we just shut the world down for 3-4 months because someone got a cough??? I could understand if this did start in China, had a few million people died in China, but like 3,500 people have died in China and they are starting to finally get back to normal. China has a population of nearly 1.4 billion people, how do they even notice 3,500 people??? Wuhan has a population of 11 million people, and again, only 3,500 have died. We have had much more dangerous viruses in the past 20 years that never had this response. Why this response this time???

Anyway, this thread should be a lot of fun, how long before it becomes political???
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2020 12:52 PM by Usajags.)
03-22-2020 09:38 AM
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Bobcat2013 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
The little bit I've read if I even remember it right said the cause for this kind of response is because of the uncertainty of it all. Sure it might not seem like its killing that many in the grand scheme of things but apparently its already adapting and creating other strains. Maybe it ends up even deadlier to a greater portion of the population? Who knows.

And you realize all numbers reported are probably minimum figuers? We'll never know exactly how many people are dying from this that didnt get tested or how many bodies China and others will hide to save face.
03-22-2020 10:21 AM
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trueeagle98 Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
The numbers won't be known for a long time. It also appears there are a lot of issues with these new tests and a lot of false negatives may be reported. Not sure where the mortality rate will end up, but I think itll end up being in the 0.3% range. Worse than. The seasonal flu, but not eno8gh to warrant such hardships on everyday life and the economy. If we enter a real depression than it'll end up killing more than the virus by a lot. If things don't get better by April, then the we will have a choice to make. Either start letting people get back to a normal life (just keep reinforcing they hygiene stuff) or you have martial law to force people to remain in place.
The numbers will go up as more testing is implemented and the massive backlog of samples gets done. Will soon discover a lot more people have it and are showing minimal or no signs. Im.sure a lot are blaming allergies and visa versa. Flu is still around, but seems to be fading now. Just a lot of unknowns about this new virus and a lot of misinformation or old info going around.
03-22-2020 10:51 AM
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mjs Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
I thought my physician son was being ridiculous when he suggested we don't travel to New Orleans, for the tournament, about 3 weeks ago. I pointed out there were not even any cases in Arkansas and Louisiana. He disagree stating "That's just because they aren't testing". Now when he says it will be 2 years before things get back to "normal" I take it a little more seriously. A British expert says the US will have 2.2 millions deaths, worst case scenario, and 1.1 million best case scenario. Italy and now NYC may be the model the rest of the country may be facing. Hopefully not. More optimistic experts suggest the summer heat will help the virus die out, but still predict a resurgence in the Fall. Who knows what to believe, but it is clear the White House has been minimizing this potential catastrophe from day one. Since this is a sports forum it is clear that college sports are done for this school year. It is only March, but I am having my doubts about the Fall college sports season taking place as well. Best case scenario, for sports fans, is NBA playoffs this summer with no fans. No way the Olympics take place as scheduled. MLS and MLB, I have no clue. NFL training camps in July? I have my doubts. Really, it's only been about 10 days since the country started taking this seriously, so who know what it will look like in 2 more weeks.
03-22-2020 11:32 AM
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Oldyeller Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
With what's happening in Italy and the prospect of what will happen in places like Mexico we need to stay diligent for the next few weeks. Just a few of the clergy that have died in Italy.

[Image: priesta.jpg?resize=960%2C675&ssl=1]

My daughter takes chloroquine for RA. Very few and certainly no life threatening side effects. Why this is not mandatory for hospital staff is beyond me. Take the dang stuff just in case it works for goodness sake.
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2020 11:40 AM by Oldyeller.)
03-22-2020 11:39 AM
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mjs Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 11:39 AM)Oldyeller Wrote:  With what's happening in Italy and the prospect of what will happen in places like Mexico we need to stay diligent for the next few weeks. Just a few of the clergy that have died in Italy.

[Image: priesta.jpg?resize=960%2C675&ssl=1]

My daughter takes chloroquine for RA. Very few and certainly no life threatening side effects. Why this is not mandatory for hospital staff is beyond me. Take the dang stuff just in case it works for goodness sake.

I heard there are shortages, already, despite no empirical evidence that it actually works for Covid-19. I saw one article that said taking twice the recommended dose can result in death, a pretty serious "side effect"- but who knows what to believe these days.
03-22-2020 11:44 AM
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Saint3333 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article

I’d recommend avoiding any main stream media and relying on the experts.

This thing is serious, but the media can make one hysterical.
03-22-2020 11:48 AM
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Oldyeller Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 11:44 AM)mjs Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 11:39 AM)Oldyeller Wrote:  With what's happening in Italy and the prospect of what will happen in places like Mexico we need to stay diligent for the next few weeks. Just a few of the clergy that have died in Italy.

[Image: priesta.jpg?resize=960%2C675&ssl=1]

My daughter takes chloroquine for RA. Very few and certainly no life threatening side effects. Why this is not mandatory for hospital staff is beyond me. Take the dang stuff just in case it works for goodness sake.

I heard there are shortages, already, despite no empirical evidence that it actually works for Covid-19. I saw one article that said taking twice the recommended dose can result in death, a pretty serious "side effect"- but who knows what to believe these days.

Used a prophylactic I would think the dose would be significantly reduced. Particularly if your on no additional meds.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-n...al-results
03-22-2020 12:14 PM
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Eagle22 Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
As of this morning, world mortality sits around 4.2%, US mortality 1.2%, GA is 3.8% .... my background is 29 years working in a clinical lab and hospital administration. The folks who are sounding the alarms and the folks who are saying it is overblown, are both right to a degree (IMO).

Those who are contracting this, with underlying co-morbidity concerns are not doing too well. Some of the stats are indicating men have 2x the negative outcomes although population wise its about 50-50 M/F who are contracting it. There is already plenty of anecdotal evidence coming out of Washington State, Illinois, NY and Louisiana about some really poor outcomes across the 18 and up age groups. Of course the older population is more heavily represented.

There is not an over-reaction from medical ICU and ER staffs because these places are being overwhelmed, and will continue to be as the ventilator demand rises. If you're one of the 95 or so out of 100 that recovers w/o major onset of complications, it will seem overblown to you. That won't be the case if you are one of the 4 or 5 who have to be hospitalized with life sustaining measures.

So many may be 'right' when they articulate the scale and scope of response is being ratcheted up out of proportion, but your opinion may rapidly shift once it impacts someone in your direct circle.

Right now Louisiana has some issues. They have 200+ more cases than GA, and over double the death rate per capita ... not saying GA is better at all, I just point out that here in GA it's very serious and once all the states add more testing capacity the positivity rate may climb but hopefully the mortality rate declines. It definitely won't end up being a sub 1.0% mortality, I think you can take it to the bank.
03-22-2020 12:32 PM
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Oldyeller Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 12:32 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  As of this morning, world mortality sits around 4.2%, US mortality 1.2%, GA is 3.8% .... my background is 29 years working in a clinical lab and hospital administration. The folks who are sounding the alarms and the folks who are saying it is overblown, are both right to a degree (IMO).

Those who are contracting this, with underlying co-morbidity concerns are not doing too well. Some of the stats are indicating men have 2x the negative outcomes although population wise its about 50-50 M/F who are contracting it. There is already plenty of anecdotal evidence coming out of Washington State, Illinois, NY and Louisiana about some really poor outcomes across the 18 and up age groups. Of course the older population is more heavily represented.

There is not an over-reaction from medical ICU and ER staffs because these places are being overwhelmed, and will continue to be as the ventilator demand rises. If you're one of the 95 or so out of 100 that recovers w/o major onset of complications, it will seem overblown to you. That won't be the case if you are one of the 4 or 5 who have to be hospitalized with life sustaining measures.

So many may be 'right' when they articulate the scale and scope of response is being ratcheted up out of proportion, but your opinion may rapidly shift once it impacts someone in your direct circle.

Right now Louisiana has some issues. They have 200+ more cases than GA, and over double the death rate per capita ... not saying GA is better at all, I just point out that here in GA it's very serious and once all the states add more testing capacity the positivity rate may climb but hopefully the mortality rate declines. It definitely won't end up being a sub 1.0% mortality, I think you can take it to the bank.

Paul do you know if chloroquine is widely used now and if so how is this impacting mortality?
03-22-2020 01:02 PM
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Saint3333 Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
CDC puts the mortality rate at 0.25-3% in the link posted above. Mortality rate could be much closer to 1% than 4% based upon this range. As more testing is available many believe the rate will decline.
03-22-2020 01:05 PM
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Eagle22 Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 01:05 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  CDC puts the mortality rate at 0.25-3% in the link posted above. Mortality rate could be much closer to 1% than 4% based upon this range. As more testing is available many believe the rate will decline.

I agree with that. I should have clarified that I believe the world mortality rate will exceed that 1% threshold ...

With increased testing will come increased positivity rates (i.e. awareness really), and the rate/numbers should decline.
03-22-2020 01:43 PM
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Eagle22 Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 01:02 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 12:32 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  As of this morning, world mortality sits around 4.2%, US mortality 1.2%, GA is 3.8% .... my background is 29 years working in a clinical lab and hospital administration. The folks who are sounding the alarms and the folks who are saying it is overblown, are both right to a degree (IMO).

Those who are contracting this, with underlying co-morbidity concerns are not doing too well. Some of the stats are indicating men have 2x the negative outcomes although population wise its about 50-50 M/F who are contracting it. There is already plenty of anecdotal evidence coming out of Washington State, Illinois, NY and Louisiana about some really poor outcomes across the 18 and up age groups. Of course the older population is more heavily represented.

There is not an over-reaction from medical ICU and ER staffs because these places are being overwhelmed, and will continue to be as the ventilator demand rises. If you're one of the 95 or so out of 100 that recovers w/o major onset of complications, it will seem overblown to you. That won't be the case if you are one of the 4 or 5 who have to be hospitalized with life sustaining measures.

So many may be 'right' when they articulate the scale and scope of response is being ratcheted up out of proportion, but your opinion may rapidly shift once it impacts someone in your direct circle.

Right now Louisiana has some issues. They have 200+ more cases than GA, and over double the death rate per capita ... not saying GA is better at all, I just point out that here in GA it's very serious and once all the states add more testing capacity the positivity rate may climb but hopefully the mortality rate declines. It definitely won't end up being a sub 1.0% mortality, I think you can take it to the bank.

Paul do you know if chloroquine is widely used now and if so how is this impacting mortality?

I can't speak to the world market penetration of Plaquenil and the efficacy of it for this, but it isn't a virus killer per se... it's a symptom management solution, as I understand it.

Mylan, Novartis and Teva are significantly ramping up production so it would seem likely that the folks who are way smarter than me, think its application has some merit.
03-22-2020 01:46 PM
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Pounce FTW Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 09:38 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Anyway, this thread should be a lot of fun, how long before it becomes political???

Hopefully it won't. We all want the same thing here, and it seems that the opinion one has of leadership in a crisis is always directly related to one's opinion of the leadership before said crisis. With variance close to zero.
03-22-2020 02:35 PM
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 11:32 AM)mjs Wrote:  I thought my physician son was being ridiculous when he suggested we don't travel to New Orleans, for the tournament, about 3 weeks ago. I pointed out there were not even any cases in Arkansas and Louisiana. He disagree stating "That's just because they aren't testing". Now when he says it will be 2 years before things get back to "normal" I take it a little more seriously. A British expert says the US will have 2.2 millions deaths, worst case scenario, and 1.1 million best case scenario. Italy and now NYC may be the model the rest of the country may be facing. Hopefully not. More optimistic experts suggest the summer heat will help the virus die out, but still predict a resurgence in the Fall. Who knows what to believe, but it is clear the White House has been minimizing this potential catastrophe from day one. Since this is a sports forum it is clear that college sports are done for this school year. It is only March, but I am having my doubts about the Fall college sports season taking place as well. Best case scenario, for sports fans, is NBA playoffs this summer with no fans. No way the Olympics take place as scheduled. MLS and MLB, I have no clue. NFL training camps in July? I have my doubts. Really, it's only been about 10 days since the country started taking this seriously, so who know what it will look like in 2 more weeks.

Thing is. We might be dealing with this for 2 years, but there won’t be gathering restrictions stay at home orders and forced closures for 2 years, the economy would fall apart and people would stop listening

The goal is if we do this for 6-8 weeks we can slow the virus enough that hospitals can catch up.

At some point. Likely late April Early may they’ll have to ease the restrictions virus or not
03-22-2020 02:36 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 01:43 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 01:05 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  CDC puts the mortality rate at 0.25-3% in the link posted above. Mortality rate could be much closer to 1% than 4% based upon this range. As more testing is available many believe the rate will decline.

I agree with that. I should have clarified that I believe the world mortality rate will exceed that 1% threshold ...

With increased testing will come increased positivity rates (i.e. awareness really), and the rate/numbers should decline.

I agree however in about a year when we look back at this period we’ll probably end up with a lower death rate than 1 percent once there is a better idea of how many had it and never knew.
03-22-2020 02:39 PM
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Eagle22 Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 02:39 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 01:43 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 01:05 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  CDC puts the mortality rate at 0.25-3% in the link posted above. Mortality rate could be much closer to 1% than 4% based upon this range. As more testing is available many believe the rate will decline.

I agree with that. I should have clarified that I believe the world mortality rate will exceed that 1% threshold ...

With increased testing will come increased positivity rates (i.e. awareness really), and the rate/numbers should decline.

I agree however in about a year when we look back at this period we’ll probably end up with a lower death rate than 1 percent once there is a better idea of how many had it and never knew.

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. Will gladly eat some crow.
03-22-2020 02:54 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 02:54 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 02:39 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 01:43 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 01:05 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  CDC puts the mortality rate at 0.25-3% in the link posted above. Mortality rate could be much closer to 1% than 4% based upon this range. As more testing is available many believe the rate will decline.

I agree with that. I should have clarified that I believe the world mortality rate will exceed that 1% threshold ...

With increased testing will come increased positivity rates (i.e. awareness really), and the rate/numbers should decline.

I agree however in about a year when we look back at this period we’ll probably end up with a lower death rate than 1 percent once there is a better idea of how many had it and never knew.

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. Will gladly eat some crow.

I will say that If hospitals get overwhelmed than the death rate will artificially increase. That being said. New data shows that China missed a slew of cases and likely had a lot more than 89K cases
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2020 03:08 PM by chiefsfan.)
03-22-2020 03:06 PM
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mjs Offline
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 02:36 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 11:32 AM)mjs Wrote:  I thought my physician son was being ridiculous when he suggested we don't travel to New Orleans, for the tournament, about 3 weeks ago. I pointed out there were not even any cases in Arkansas and Louisiana. He disagree stating "That's just because they aren't testing". Now when he says it will be 2 years before things get back to "normal" I take it a little more seriously. A British expert says the US will have 2.2 millions deaths, worst case scenario, and 1.1 million best case scenario. Italy and now NYC may be the model the rest of the country may be facing. Hopefully not. More optimistic experts suggest the summer heat will help the virus die out, but still predict a resurgence in the Fall. Who knows what to believe, but it is clear the White House has been minimizing this potential catastrophe from day one. Since this is a sports forum it is clear that college sports are done for this school year. It is only March, but I am having my doubts about the Fall college sports season taking place as well. Best case scenario, for sports fans, is NBA playoffs this summer with no fans. No way the Olympics take place as scheduled. MLS and MLB, I have no clue. NFL training camps in July? I have my doubts. Really, it's only been about 10 days since the country started taking this seriously, so who know what it will look like in 2 more weeks.

Thing is. We might be dealing with this for 2 years, but there won’t be gathering restrictions stay at home orders and forced closures for 2 years, the economy would fall apart and people would stop listening

The goal is if we do this for 6-8 weeks we can slow the virus enough that hospitals can catch up.

At some point. Likely late April Early may they’ll have to ease the restrictions virus or not

I tend to agree. How long will folks in this country put up with this? Still, at what point does the NCAA decide that it is safe for 100 football players to be crowded into locker rooms or 80K fans crammed into stadiums? What liability does a university have if the majority of a football team gets the virus, and if one or two of them actually develop a fatal respiratory illness? While they are athletes, I would think 350 pound lineman likely have some increased risk.
03-22-2020 03:08 PM
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RE: The CORONAVIRUS thread
(03-22-2020 03:08 PM)mjs Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 02:36 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 11:32 AM)mjs Wrote:  I thought my physician son was being ridiculous when he suggested we don't travel to New Orleans, for the tournament, about 3 weeks ago. I pointed out there were not even any cases in Arkansas and Louisiana. He disagree stating "That's just because they aren't testing". Now when he says it will be 2 years before things get back to "normal" I take it a little more seriously. A British expert says the US will have 2.2 millions deaths, worst case scenario, and 1.1 million best case scenario. Italy and now NYC may be the model the rest of the country may be facing. Hopefully not. More optimistic experts suggest the summer heat will help the virus die out, but still predict a resurgence in the Fall. Who knows what to believe, but it is clear the White House has been minimizing this potential catastrophe from day one. Since this is a sports forum it is clear that college sports are done for this school year. It is only March, but I am having my doubts about the Fall college sports season taking place as well. Best case scenario, for sports fans, is NBA playoffs this summer with no fans. No way the Olympics take place as scheduled. MLS and MLB, I have no clue. NFL training camps in July? I have my doubts. Really, it's only been about 10 days since the country started taking this seriously, so who know what it will look like in 2 more weeks.

Thing is. We might be dealing with this for 2 years, but there won’t be gathering restrictions stay at home orders and forced closures for 2 years, the economy would fall apart and people would stop listening

The goal is if we do this for 6-8 weeks we can slow the virus enough that hospitals can catch up.

At some point. Likely late April Early may they’ll have to ease the restrictions virus or not

I tend to agree. How long will folks in this country put up with this? Still, at what point does the NCAA decide that it is safe for 100 football players to be crowded into locker rooms or 80K fans crammed into stadiums? What liability does a university have if the majority of a football team gets the virus, and if one or two of them actually develop a fatal respiratory illness? While they are athletes, I would think 350 pound lineman likely have some increased risk.

The only way the NCAA cancels is if there is still a major increase in cases by then. Data tells us that this thing infects so many so fast that it runs out of people faster to infect. There’s no chance we’re still increasing in cases in September unless this thing goes away in Summer

What people are missing with this so far is that this virus has been circulating the united states a lot longer than the last 2 weeks. Seattle already has done genetic sequencing linking current cases to the first case in the city back in Mid January. That means the virus itself has been circulating Washington State for 2 months.

Multiple Southern Cases stem from a Mardi Gras celebration in New Orleans. Mardi Gras was the 3rd weekend in February. Its entirely likely the US Has missed roughly 80 percent of the actual cases simply because they never really bothered to test, if we're falling in line with China and Italy. That means by rough math, over 300K people in the United States either have the virus now or had it and got over it without seeking medical attention. Look at China. They've had not had a new community case in a week, not because of some amazing lock down, but because they missed so many cases early that the virus is having a hard time finding people to infect who don't already have immunity built up.

That math tells me that the CDC's guidelines of no large activities till Mid May is likely correct with the virus hitting its peak a couple weeks before that.

The downside to this is, we failed to flatten the curve so a lot of people are going to die. Most any restrictive measures now are stopgap measures. You can't keep schools closed forever because kids fall behind academically. You can't keep non essential businesses closed because the economy would fall apart, you can't keep people locked down because eventually people would start to rebel. All everyone is doing right now is buying time. Because that's all they have.
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2020 03:24 PM by chiefsfan.)
03-22-2020 03:11 PM
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