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US 6th in deaths, but low rate
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US 6th in deaths, but low rate
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

The US is 6th worldwide in deaths but last of the top 10 among deaths per million. Cases are relatively low as well. The Dutch who are supposedly doing something different (not that I could tell what they were doing different) are among the highest in the world per million (not at Italy/Spain/Iran levels, but higher than anyone else but San Marino and Luxembourg).
03-21-2020 11:15 AM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.
03-21-2020 11:23 AM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.
03-21-2020 12:11 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high. Italy had over 600 deaths yesterday and has already recorded almost 800 deaths today. So its bad there. Italy began getting overwhelmed at about 7-10K cases. When we hit somewhere between 28K to 50K cases we will be putting a similar level of stress on our healthcare system that Italy saw when they began locking down cities.

That said, we have several factors in our favor. We had more time to prepare. We had more resources with which to prepare. We made adjustments to behavior earlier. We have a younger population. Hopefully those factors will allow us to avoid the overwhelming of the healthcare system that has led to the high mortality rate in Italy.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2020 02:56 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-21-2020 02:48 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhwlm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high. Italy had over 600 deaths yesterday and has already recorded almost 800 deaths today. Italy began getting overwhelmed at about 7-10K cases. When we hit somewhere between 28K to 50K cases we will be putting a similar level of stress on our healthcare system. We have several factors in our favor. We had more time to prepare. We had more resources with which to prepare. We made adjustments to behavior earlier. We have a younger population. Hopefully those factors will allow us to avoid the overwhelming of the healthcare system that has led to the high mortality rate in Italy.

According to worldometer the US has a total of 64 critical or serious cases. Can only assume that means hospitalizations.
03-21-2020 03:06 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
We really should almost should be modeling California, South Florida, and NYC/Megaopolis as if they are their own countries. We've got a gigantic country compared to the other countries dealing with the worst of the pandemic, and certain places are more "multiculutral" and have more business and foreign travel than others.
03-21-2020 03:27 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high.



1. Italy has emergency care as a national right, so people take up a hospital bed just so they dont have to go wait a day or days at their primary care doctor. Which is why they need more beds per capita. And why there is a perpetual bed shortage even when nothing is going on.

2. Italy has fewer ICU units per capita than we do, which is really what they need for both the flu and this. Especially with an older population.

3. Italy has a shortage of doctors and nurses.
03-21-2020 03:35 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 03:35 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high.



1. Italy has emergency care as a national right, so people take up a hospital bed just so they dont have to go wait a day or days at their primary care doctor. Which is why they need more beds per capita. And why there is a perpetual bed shortage even when nothing is going on.

2. Italy has fewer ICU units per capita than we do, which is really what they need for both the flu and this. Especially with an older population.

3. Italy has a shortage of doctors and nurses.

To be fair, "emergency" care is effectively "a right" in the United States as well. A hospital by law cannot deny emergency care to anyone. We do have more ICU beds per capita which should be a big help.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2020 03:45 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-21-2020 03:43 PM
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UofMstateU Offline
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 03:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:35 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high.



1. Italy has emergency care as a national right, so people take up a hospital bed just so they dont have to go wait a day or days at their primary care doctor. Which is why they need more beds per capita. And why there is a perpetual bed shortage even when nothing is going on.

2. Italy has fewer ICU units per capita than we do, which is really what they need for both the flu and this. Especially with an older population.

3. Italy has a shortage of doctors and nurses.

To be fair, "emergency" care is effectively "a right" in the United States as well. A hospital by law cannot deny emergency care to anyone. We do have more ICU beds per capita which should be a big help.

We do, but we dont have the same issue because we have effective primary care for almost everyone. Italy has effective primary care for noone, which is why everyone there utilizes the hospitals for the most basic care. Its one of the reasons why Italy has 40 times the death rate for the flu. Its not that they dont have the vax, its that nobody wants to try to spend 2 or 3 days at their primary care doctor hoping to be seen and to get the vax. This, in turn, leads to higher hospitlization rates. Its another reason why they are perpetually short on beds. Their front-line primary care is completely horrible because its terribly underfunded.
03-21-2020 03:57 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

I have some profound questions about Italy's death rate.
1. Do the Italians immunize regularly for other forms of the flu?
2. Do they have inherent genetic markets that make them more susceptible?
3. Is their something natural to their diet that inhibits the immune system?
4. Is this just an example of what might have happened here had we not locked down travel when we did, which was still not soon enough?
5. Is there a different strain at work in Italy?

And to counter that Australia has faired remarkably well given the incidence of initial spread. What are they doing right?

And, why isn't Russia more affected???
03-21-2020 04:11 PM
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Post: #11
RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 03:57 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:35 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high.



1. Italy has emergency care as a national right, so people take up a hospital bed just so they dont have to go wait a day or days at their primary care doctor. Which is why they need more beds per capita. And why there is a perpetual bed shortage even when nothing is going on.

2. Italy has fewer ICU units per capita than we do, which is really what they need for both the flu and this. Especially with an older population.

3. Italy has a shortage of doctors and nurses.

To be fair, "emergency" care is effectively "a right" in the United States as well. A hospital by law cannot deny emergency care to anyone. We do have more ICU beds per capita which should be a big help.

We do, but we dont have the same issue because we have effective primary care for almost everyone. Italy has effective primary care for noone, which is why everyone there utilizes the hospitals for the most basic care. Its one of the reasons why Italy has 40 times the death rate for the flu. Its not that they dont have the vax, its that nobody wants to try to spend 2 or 3 days at their primary care doctor hoping to be seen and to get the vax. This, in turn, leads to higher hospitlization rates. Its another reason why they are perpetually short on beds. Their front-line primary care is completely horrible because its terribly underfunded.

Maybe one good thing out of all of this is the crazies will get over "Universal Health Care" for a decade or so after seeing what is happening in these European utopias. I'm sure it will be the opposite though.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2020 04:13 PM by Eagleaidaholic.)
03-21-2020 04:11 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
New York is apparently the Italy of the US. Nearly half of all US cases and over 70% of new cases are there. If you aren't in NY right now you are in pretty good shape.
03-21-2020 04:21 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 03:27 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  We really should almost should be modeling California, South Florida, and NYC/Megaopolis as if they are their own countries. We've got a gigantic country compared to the other countries dealing with the worst of the pandemic, and certain places are more "multiculutral" and have more business and foreign travel than others.


Hotspots in the US:
NYC area which includes New Georgia
Atlanta
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Boston
Chicago
Detroit
Denver
District Columbia
Minneapolis
Seattle
Portland
Sacramento
San Francisco
LA
San Diego
Phoenix
Little Rock
Tampa
New Orleans
Memphis
Nashville
Louisville
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Buffalo
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis


These would be hot beds for the virus cases since they have flight business dealings from all over the world. Northeast like Boston and New York and the west coast like Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, LA and Vancouver BC have the larger populations of Italian, Iranian and Chinese Americans. Chicago would have a larger Italian American population.
03-21-2020 04:38 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_th...fic_(2018)

Most international passengers per airport

1 JFK (33 million in 2018)
2 LAX (25 million)
3 Miami (20 million)
4 San Francisco (14)
5 Newark (13)
6 Chicago (13)
7 Atlanta (12)
8 Houston (10)
9 Fort Lauderdale (8)
10 Dallas/Fort Worth (8)

I really think Chinese flights aren't that significant anymore since the travel ban in early February. It's probably more relevant for European flights within the last month. And my guess is the eastern airports have more of those while the Texas airports tend to have more Latin and South American flights, and the western airports have more to the Far East. Just on average.
03-21-2020 04:54 PM
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RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 04:54 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_th...fic_(2018)

Most international passengers per airport

1 JFK (33 million in 2018)
2 LAX (25 million)
3 Miami (20 million)
4 San Francisco (14)
5 Newark (13)
6 Chicago (13)
7 Atlanta (12)
8 Houston (10)
9 Fort Lauderdale (8)
10 Dallas/Fort Worth (8)

I really think Chinese flights aren't that significant anymore since the travel ban in early February. It's probably more relevant for European flights within the last month. And my guess is the eastern airports have more of those while the Texas airports tend to have more Latin and South American flights, and the western airports have more to the Far East. Just on average.


Well, I am talking about people flying to visit other family members in other countries. An Iranian American doctor flew to Iran to helped a family member who was sick, and came back to NYC and got sick for the COVID-19 and was hospitalized. As it is, how long before a Chinese American got sick after coming back from China? As it is, more new cases and more deaths today from where it started from in China. Second? Are there new types of this virus mutated to effect the healthy and to countries and islands not connected to airports and all that? Even backwoods part of the US are getting the virus who had no connections to NYC, Seattle and San Francisco. I am talking about states like South Dakota and Montana.
03-21-2020 05:04 PM
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Post: #16
RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 04:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

I have some profound questions about Italy's death rate.
1. Do the Italians immunize regularly for other forms of the flu?

They have vaxes like we do, but the primary care system is so bad that nobody wants to bear going to the primary care doctor to get one. Its why the have such as high death rate from the flu, and its been getting worse over the past 5 years. I believe last year they had a death rate from the flu 40 times higher than the US.

Quote:2. Do they have inherent genetic markets that make them more susceptible?
3. Is their something natural to their diet that inhibits the immune system?

Intersting question. I doubt it, but we may not know for sure for a while until after the sift through all of the data.

Quote:4. Is this just an example of what might have happened here had we not locked down travel when we did, which was still not soon enough?

Italy was a victim of chinese propaganda and being overly PC. And their healthcare system collapses like a house of cards under normak situations. They were ill-prepared at the primary doctor level, the ICU level, the hospital doctor and nurse level, and they failed to do any mitigation to quell the number of infections. Allowing travelers from china, hugging them to show they were not racist, did nothing but to ensure maximum spread. Honestly, their issue isnt just coronovirus. They probably have more people in the hospital for just the flu right now. Its like they were not prepared at all, their heathcare system was already short of beds, and then they did everything they could to get the highest number of coronovirus infections as quickly as possible. Basically, they did everything as porrly as you could.

Quote:5. Is there a different strain at work in Italy?

Whether there are one or two strains I dont think is the difference. Even if there are two, I bet they both have the same symptons and rates of extreme diagnosis. The proof is that once we started testing a higher number of people, we received a higher number of positives. The numbers are normalizing for all countries. (At least all countries which report consistenly without manipulating the numebrs by atrributing deaths to some other cause.

Quote:And to counter that Australia has faired remarkably well given the incidence of initial spread. What are they doing right?

Their pace of infections is picking up. They were in the dead of summer, so the virus probably didnt survive long. Now thats its into the fall, and without a lot of mitigations in place until the past couple of days, their infections are ticking up.

Quote:And, why isn't Russia more affected???

Being isolated as a travel destination certainly helps, but I would trust their numbers like I trust N. Koreas numbers.


Back to us and Italy; its important to note the US handled 500,000 hospitalizations due to the flu over the past 5 months. We did it without issue. Thats something Italy couldnt pull off ever as a percent of their population ( which would be about 100,000 hospitilizations. ) Italy literally had the worst case medical system, a worst case scenario in an aging popualtion with underlying health issues, and instead of mitigating the spread, they actively promoted the spread.
03-21-2020 05:09 PM
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Post: #17
RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 05:09 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 04:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

I have some profound questions about Italy's death rate.
1. Do the Italians immunize regularly for other forms of the flu?

They have vaxes like we do, but the primary care system is so bad that nobody wants to bear going to the primary care doctor to get one. Its why the have such as high death rate from the flu, and its been getting worse over the past 5 years. I believe last year they had a death rate from the flu 40 times higher than the US.

Quote:2. Do they have inherent genetic markets that make them more susceptible?
3. Is their something natural to their diet that inhibits the immune system?

Intersting question. I doubt it, but we may not know for sure for a while until after the sift through all of the data.

Quote:4. Is this just an example of what might have happened here had we not locked down travel when we did, which was still not soon enough?

Italy was a victim of chinese propaganda and being overly PC. And their healthcare system collapses like a house of cards under normak situations. They were ill-prepared at the primary doctor level, the ICU level, the hospital doctor and nurse level, and they failed to do any mitigation to quell the number of infections. Allowing travelers from china, hugging them to show they were not racist, did nothing but to ensure maximum spread. Honestly, their issue isnt just coronovirus. They probably have more people in the hospital for just the flu right now. Its like they were not prepared at all, their heathcare system was already short of beds, and then they did everything they could to get the highest number of coronovirus infections as quickly as possible. Basically, they did everything as porrly as you could.

Quote:5. Is there a different strain at work in Italy?

Whether there are one or two strains I dont think is the difference. Even if there are two, I bet they both have the same symptons and rates of extreme diagnosis. The proof is that once we started testing a higher number of people, we received a higher number of positives. The numbers are normalizing for all countries. (At least all countries which report consistenly without manipulating the numebrs by atrributing deaths to some other cause.

Quote:And to counter that Australia has faired remarkably well given the incidence of initial spread. What are they doing right?

Their pace of infections is picking up. They were in the dead of summer, so the virus probably didnt survive long. Now thats its into the fall, and without a lot of mitigations in place until the past couple of days, their infections are ticking up.

Quote:And, why isn't Russia more affected???

Being isolated as a travel destination certainly helps, but I would trust their numbers like I trust N. Koreas numbers.


Back to us and Italy; its important to note the US handled 500,000 hospitalizations due to the flu over the past 5 months. We did it without issue. Thats something Italy couldnt pull off ever as a percent of their population ( which would be about 100,000 hospitilizations. ) Italy literally had the worst case medical system, a worst case scenario in an aging popualtion with underlying health issues, and instead of mitigating the spread, they actively promoted the spread.


Germany seems to be doing something right than Italy who is next door. They both are are single payer system or a universal health care system, but Germany invested in the medical field with more doctors, nurses, hospitals, beds and all that.
03-21-2020 05:18 PM
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Post: #18
RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 04:54 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_th...fic_(2018)

Most international passengers per airport

1 JFK (33 million in 2018)
2 LAX (25 million)
3 Miami (20 million)
4 San Francisco (14)
5 Newark (13)
6 Chicago (13)
7 Atlanta (12)
8 Houston (10)
9 Fort Lauderdale (8)
10 Dallas/Fort Worth (8)

I really think Chinese flights aren't that significant anymore since the travel ban in early February. It's probably more relevant for European flights within the last month. And my guess is the eastern airports have more of those while the Texas airports tend to have more Latin and South American flights, and the western airports have more to the Far East. Just on average.

Yep, originally from China was an issue then from Europe. I read that the first case in NYC was someone who came from Iran.
03-21-2020 05:22 PM
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Niner National Offline
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Post: #19
RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 12:11 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats one of the issues with some of the graphs. They show number of cases per country, as if every country is the same size.

Agree. Been saying that for days, especially when people said we were tracking Italy. Well, Italy has 60M, screwed up from the beginning, and has an older population. We have 5 1/2 times as many people, and acted much more quickly.

Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high. Italy had over 600 deaths yesterday and has already recorded almost 800 deaths today. So its bad there. Italy began getting overwhelmed at about 7-10K cases. When we hit somewhere between 28K to 50K cases we will be putting a similar level of stress on our healthcare system that Italy saw when they began locking down cities.

That said, we have several factors in our favor. We had more time to prepare. We had more resources with which to prepare. We made adjustments to behavior earlier. We have a younger population. Hopefully those factors will allow us to avoid the overwhelming of the healthcare system that has led to the high mortality rate in Italy.
Our people, with the exception of a few notable cities, also do not live in such close proximity as Italians do as well. That should help keep lower density areas from seeing an explosion of cases...I hope.
03-21-2020 05:23 PM
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Post: #20
RE: US 6th in deaths, but low rate
(03-21-2020 04:11 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:57 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:35 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Correct. However, our beds per person is actually lower than Italy. In order to overwhelm our system like it has in Italy, you'd need raw case numbers roughly 4 to 5 times as high.



1. Italy has emergency care as a national right, so people take up a hospital bed just so they dont have to go wait a day or days at their primary care doctor. Which is why they need more beds per capita. And why there is a perpetual bed shortage even when nothing is going on.

2. Italy has fewer ICU units per capita than we do, which is really what they need for both the flu and this. Especially with an older population.

3. Italy has a shortage of doctors and nurses.

To be fair, "emergency" care is effectively "a right" in the United States as well. A hospital by law cannot deny emergency care to anyone. We do have more ICU beds per capita which should be a big help.

We do, but we dont have the same issue because we have effective primary care for almost everyone. Italy has effective primary care for noone, which is why everyone there utilizes the hospitals for the most basic care. Its one of the reasons why Italy has 40 times the death rate for the flu. Its not that they dont have the vax, its that nobody wants to try to spend 2 or 3 days at their primary care doctor hoping to be seen and to get the vax. This, in turn, leads to higher hospitlization rates. Its another reason why they are perpetually short on beds. Their front-line primary care is completely horrible because its terribly underfunded.

Maybe one good thing out of all of this is the crazies will get over "Universal Health Care" for a decade or so after seeing what is happening in these European utopias. I'm sure it will be the opposite though.

Yup. It aint all its cracked up to be.
03-21-2020 05:31 PM
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